Summary of the Medical Aesthetics and Cosmetics Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The medical aesthetics industry in China has a significantly lower penetration rate compared to the US and South Korea, indicating substantial growth potential. The current penetration rate is approximately 2 per 1,000 people, while the US and South Korea have rates of 5‰ and 8‰ respectively, suggesting a large market opportunity for growth [2][3][4] - The consumer repurchase rate for medical aesthetics is high, with stable demand for light medical aesthetics services, which provides a solid foundation for industry development [2][3] Market Dynamics - The medical aesthetics industry is divided into two main segments: medical aesthetics and cosmetics. The medical aesthetics segment remains robust post-pandemic, with a focus on product and material development [3][4] - The upstream raw material sector has high gross margins, with companies like Aimeike achieving margins of 85%-90%. The typical markup at the consumer level is over three times the factory price, ensuring profitability for institutions and sales personnel [2][4] Capital Market Trends - Capital markets are increasingly focused on upstream manufacturers, particularly the transition from hyaluronic acid to active materials such as recombinant collagen and PDRN. This shift is driven by rising consumer demand for facial treatments [7] - The market for light medical aesthetics accounts for approximately 70% in leading hospitals, with new medical aesthetics primarily divided into photonic and injection categories [8] Product Market Size - The market size for hyaluronic acid and botulinum toxin at the factory level is estimated to be between 50 to 100 billion yuan. The markup for mature products typically ranges from 2 to 3 times, with high-end products potentially reaching 3 to 4 times [9] - The regenerative materials market has seen rapid growth, with several companies achieving sales exceeding 1 billion yuan since 2021. However, these materials are not fully replacing hyaluronic acid but rather expanding the market [10][11] Material Development and Trends - The development of regenerative materials is significant, with a focus on micro-spheres that stimulate natural repair and collagen regeneration. These materials are expected to enhance treatment effectiveness and safety in soft tissue filling and skin management [15][16] - The future of the medical aesthetics industry is expected to shift towards active micro-spheres and humanized collagen, with a focus on extracellular matrix and various collagen types [15] Cosmetics Industry Overview - The cosmetics industry has seen a clear trend towards domestic brand replacement, with domestic brands now accounting for over 50% of the market. Brands are leveraging e-commerce and live streaming to enhance growth, with increased R&D investments focusing on efficacy and ingredient-driven strategies [2][21] - The market has shifted from high-end luxury products to a broader consumer base, with skincare products maintaining steady growth despite the pandemic [21][22] Sales Dynamics - The sales of domestic cosmetics exhibit seasonal variations, with the first half of the year accounting for about 40% of total sales and the second half for 60%. Major shopping events like 618 and Double Eleven significantly impact annual sales [24] R&D Investment Differences - There is a notable difference in R&D investment between the medical aesthetics and cosmetics industries. The medical aesthetics sector focuses on material iteration, while the cosmetics industry emphasizes brand building and marketing to enhance consumer loyalty [25] Future Outlook - The future of domestic cosmetics companies appears optimistic, with expectations of revenue growth driven by channel changes and ingredient innovations. Companies like Perfect Diary and Proya are projected to reach revenue levels of 20 to 30 billion yuan in the next 3 to 5 years [30]

New Consumption - In August 2025, the GMV of the beauty category on Douyin exceeded 20 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 19.56% and a month-on-month growth of 21.46% [2][7] - Domestic brands performed well, with Han Shu leading the market with a GMV exceeding 700 million yuan, and the Han Shu Hongman Waist Ring Six Peptide Set being the only product to exceed 100 million yuan in sales [7][8] - The trend in Douyin beauty consumption is shifting from "trial consumption" to "stable repurchase," indicating a more rational consumer behavior focusing on product practicality [8] Robotics Industry - The human-shaped robot market is expected to grow significantly, with the market size projected to reach approximately 27.6 billion yuan in 2024 and 750 billion yuan by 2029 [9][10] - Key components for human-shaped robots include actuators, sensors, and transmission systems, with the planetary roller screw expected to account for 19% of the total cost by 2030 [9][10] - Domestic companies are gradually breaking into the high-end bearing market, which is currently dominated by eight global enterprises, with a current localization rate of less than 20% [10][11] Food and Beverage Industry - National beer companies showed stable revenue and profit performance in the first half of 2025, with cost reductions contributing to gross profit growth [15][16] - The dairy sector is expected to see a reversal in fundamentals as raw milk prices stabilize and beef prices rise, which could enhance profitability for dairy companies [16] - The snack food sector is experiencing a divergence in performance, with emerging channels like bulk snacks and membership supermarkets maintaining high momentum, while traditional channels face challenges [17] Logistics Industry - Zhonggu Logistics reported a revenue of 5.338 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a decrease of 6.99% year-on-year, but net profit increased by 41.59% to 1.072 billion yuan [19][20] - The company is optimizing its capacity deployment in response to domestic demand recovery and external trade needs, which supports profit growth [20][21] - The company plans to distribute 9.03 billion yuan in dividends, reflecting its strong profit attributes [21] Public Utilities and Environmental Protection - Datang New Energy achieved a revenue of 6.845 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 3.26%, while net profit decreased by 4.37% [22][23] - The company’s capital expenditure significantly decreased, indicating a focus on optimizing financial structure [26][27] - The wind power sector is expected to outperform solar power in terms of output and operational cycles, with a favorable market environment anticipated for wind power operators [27]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the beauty care industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4][12] Core Viewpoints - In August 2025, the GMV of the beauty category on Douyin exceeded 20 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 19.56% and a month-on-month increase of 21.46%, indicating a strong growth trend [5] - Domestic brands are performing exceptionally well, with Han Shu leading the market with a GMV exceeding 700 million yuan, and its product, the Han Shu Red Waist Ring Hexapeptide Set, being the only product to surpass 100 million yuan in sales during August [5] - The consumption trend on Douyin is shifting from "trial consumption" to "stable repurchase," with a decrease in the proportion of new products launched in the top 1000 SPUs [5] Summary by Sections Market Performance - Domestic brands like Baique Ling, Marubi, and Mao Geping have significantly improved their rankings compared to the previous year, with increases of 78, 19, and 14 places respectively [5] - Foreign brands such as Helena and L'Oreal are facing sales pressure, with L'Oreal dropping out of the top three rankings, showing a decline of 7 places year-on-year [5] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on domestic brands that are expanding their market scale and brand influence through mainstream channels. Recommended stocks include: 1. Mao Geping, a leading high-end domestic beauty brand with strong product and channel capabilities 2. Proya, known for its mature organizational structure and industry-leading marketing and management capabilities 3. Marubi, which continues to release strong single products and accelerate brand growth 4. Shumei Co., benefiting from the trend of affordable consumption with strong operational performance and product growth certainty [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the retail industry is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [3][17]. Core Viewpoints - In July 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 38,780 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 3.7%. Excluding automobiles, the growth was 4.3% [4][5]. - The growth trend in retail sales continues, with goods retail growing by 4% and catering income increasing by 1.1% in July [4][5]. - For the first seven months of 2025, the total retail sales amounted to 284,238 billion, reflecting a growth of 4.8% [5]. Summary by Relevant Sections Retail Sales Performance - In July 2025, essential goods maintained steady growth, with categories such as grain and oil, tobacco and alcohol, and daily necessities growing by 8.6%, 2.7%, and 8.2% respectively. In the optional category, cosmetics, gold and jewelry, and clothing grew by 4.5%, 8.2%, and 1.8% respectively [4][8]. - The online retail sales for the first seven months of 2025 increased by 9.2%, with physical goods online retail sales growing by 6.3%, accounting for 24.9% of total retail sales [8]. Future Outlook and Investment Suggestions - The report anticipates that domestic policies focusing on stimulating consumption and countering supply-side issues will create a favorable environment for future consumption recovery [4][11]. - Recommendations for long-term investment opportunities include: 1. Cross-border expansion: With improving external trade conditions, companies like Xiaogoods City, Focus Technology, and Anker Innovation are highlighted [4][11]. 2. Gold and jewelry: Companies such as Chao Hong Ji, Chow Tai Fook, and Cai Bai Co. are expected to benefit from high gold prices and consumer demand [4][11]. 3. Beauty and personal care: Brands like Shiseido, Dengkang Oral Care, and Shanghai Jahwa are positioned to gain market share due to domestic product replacement [4][11]. 4. Traditional retail: Companies like Chongqing Department Store and Miniso are noted for their potential in improving performance and being undervalued [4][13].

Fixed Income - The bank wealth management market's existing scale reached 30.67 trillion yuan as of H1 2025, an increase of 0.72 trillion yuan compared to the end of 2024, surpassing the average change of -0.13 trillion yuan from H1 2021 to H1 2024 [2][7][8] - The average annualized yield of wealth management products weakened in H1 2025, with an average yield of 2.12%, down 0.53 percentage points from the entire year of 2024 [9][10] - The market is expected to stabilize above 30 trillion yuan in H2 2025, with a focus on long-term municipal investment bonds and capital bonds [10] New Consumption - Maternal and Infant Industry - The implementation of the childcare subsidy policy is expected to stimulate the maternal and infant industry, with the market size projected to reach 76,299 billion yuan in 2024 and 89,149 billion yuan by 2027 [12][13] - The birth population in China is expected to increase to 9.54 million in 2024, marking a rise of 520,000 from 2023, the first increase since 2017 [13] - The policy aims to alleviate family burdens and enhance birth rates, benefiting sectors such as dairy products, education and training, and infant care [13] New Consumption - Investment Opportunities - The high-end beauty sector is expected to grow faster than the mass market, with projected CAGR of 9.6% for skincare and 10.8% for makeup from 2023 to 2028 [14][15] - The ancient gold market shows strong growth potential, with a CAGR of 21.8% expected from 2023 to 2028 [15][16] - The current beverage market is seeing a rise in ready-to-drink products, with the market size for ready-to-drink beverages reaching 5,175 billion yuan in 2023, accounting for 36.3% of the beverage market [16][17] Medical Devices - Kaili Medical - Kaili Medical is positioned as a leader in ultrasound and endoscopy equipment, with new product launches expected to enhance market penetration [19][20] - The company has expanded its workforce significantly, preparing for a recovery in the medical device sector, with procurement activities showing signs of normalization [20][21] - Revenue forecasts for Kaili Medical indicate a growth trajectory, with expected revenues of 2.388 billion yuan in 2025, growing to 3.224 billion yuan by 2027 [21] Transportation - YTO Express - YTO Express reported a revenue of 5.53 billion yuan in June 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 11.35%, with a business volume growth of 19.34% [23][24] - The express delivery market is experiencing structural growth, with YTO's business volume growth outpacing overall market growth [24][25] - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to improve profitability in the express delivery sector, with YTO's net profit per ticket projected to increase significantly [25][26]

Core Insights - The report maintains an "outperform" rating for the retail sector, anticipating that easing international conditions and domestic policy stimulus will positively influence the sector's performance [3][42]. - The overall retail sales in May 2025 reached 4.13 trillion, growing by 6.4% year-on-year, with goods retail sales increasing by 6.5% [11][14]. Beauty and Personal Care - In May 2025, the cosmetics retail sales grew by 4.4%, with high online penetration leading to diminishing promotional effects. However, leading domestic brands are expected to outperform the market due to the trend of domestic product substitution [11][12]. - The competitive landscape is intensifying, with rising sales expense ratios expected to pressure profit margins for some brands, although top players with strong product innovation may still achieve robust growth [11][12]. Gold and Jewelry - The gold and jewelry sector saw a significant year-on-year growth of 21.8% in May 2025, benefiting from a low base effect from the previous year. Products that appeal to younger consumers are expected to drive higher growth rates [11][12]. Supermarkets and Department Stores - From January to May 2025, department store sales slightly increased by 1.3%, while supermarket sales grew by 5.7%. Companies that adapt to the current value-for-money consumption trend through supply chain upgrades are expected to perform better [12][14]. Cross-Border E-commerce - The second quarter is expected to face short-term performance pressures due to external environmental challenges. However, leading platform companies are anticipated to demonstrate strong resilience in the medium to long term due to flexible tariff responses and solid product capabilities [12][14]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several companies across different sectors, including: - Beauty and Personal Care: Recommended companies include 毛戈平, 丸美生物, and 登康口腔, which are expected to benefit from domestic product substitution and channel optimization [3][42]. - Gold and Jewelry: Companies like 老铺黄金 and 潮宏基 are highlighted for their potential to achieve accelerated growth due to favorable market conditions [3][42]. - Cross-Border E-commerce: Recommended companies include 小商品城 and 安克创新, which are positioned to capitalize on improving trade conditions [3][42]. - Retail: Companies such as 名创优品 and 重庆百货 are suggested for their low valuation and potential for improvement [3][42].

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The beauty and personal care industry has shown a recovery in Q1, with domestic brands gaining market share, particularly through category and channel breakthroughs. Companies like Luoyuchen and Jiahua have improved margins through organizational adjustments and product innovation [1][4] - The personal care market is experiencing stable growth with a trend towards premiumization. Domestic brands are gaining an advantage in emerging channels like Douyin, with strong revenue growth and consumer recognition of their market share increase [1][5] - Live-streaming e-commerce has provided domestic beauty and personal care brands with opportunities to effectively reach young consumers, enhancing brand awareness and sales channels [1][6] Key Companies and Performance - **Mao Geping**: Achieved significant growth above industry averages, expected to maintain a 30% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) over the next three years due to high-end offline channels and effective online marketing [1][9] - **Ruo Yuchen**: Experienced rapid sales growth through product design and marketing innovation, particularly in the fragrance laundry liquid and health products sectors, with a sales target of 1 billion yuan for 2025 [1][9] - **Baiya and Dengkang**: Both companies have shown good revenue growth, with Baiya leveraging live-streaming e-commerce for expansion and Dengkang focusing on high-end products through targeted marketing on platforms like Douyin [1][10][11] Market Trends and Consumer Behavior - The demand for personal care products is stable but has shown a consistent price increase trend, driven by inflation and a shift towards health and natural product preferences among consumers [1][5] - The beauty industry is characterized by a long-term growth potential, with domestic brands continuing to gain market share. Current valuations have not yet returned to pre-2021 levels, indicating potential for valuation improvement [1][14] Future Growth Potential - The sanitary napkin market has reached a certain ceiling in domestic sales, but there is still room for growth in absorbent products like diapers and adult care items, as well as potential expansion into overseas markets [1][17] - The toothpaste market is also large, with opportunities for growth in related categories such as toothbrushes and mouthwash, indicating a robust growth outlook for the oral care sector [1][18] - The cotton soft towel market, as a new product category, has significant market potential due to its higher price point compared to traditional paper products, with companies like Weijian Medical expanding their product lines to enhance brand presence [1][19] Valuation Insights - Most personal care brands have not yet experienced the valuation premiums seen in 2021, with current valuations aligning with growth rates. However, as domestic brands continue to validate their growth, there is potential for increased valuation premiums in the future [1][20][21] - In the Hong Kong market, companies like Shangmei have a valuation of approximately 24 times earnings, while in the A-share market, Pulaoya's valuation is around 20 times, both indicating investment attractiveness [1][15]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the new consumption sectors, specifically focusing on the beauty and trendy toy industries, highlighting the impact of Generation Z on consumer behavior and market dynamics [1][2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments Beauty Industry - The beauty industry is benefiting from the logic of domestic product substitution, with domestic brands continuously increasing their market share, particularly in the mid-to-high-end market [1][2][5]. - The market for skincare products, especially eye and facial care, is growing significantly faster than the overall market, driven by emerging functional ingredients like recombinant collagen and signaling molecules [1][15]. - The beauty sector is experiencing a shift from traditional e-commerce to content-driven e-commerce, necessitating changes in marketing strategies and organizational structures to adapt to a "product finds people" model [1][3][4]. - The impact of the US-China tariff war has made domestic beauty products more attractive, with over 10 billion yuan worth of beauty products imported from the US facing tariffs, enhancing the competitiveness of local brands [2][5]. - Companies like Proya, Betaini, and Perfect Diary are expected to show strong performance despite facing profit pressures, indicating overall strengthening competitiveness in the sector [2][5]. Trendy Toy Industry - The trendy toy industry is heavily reliant on IP (intellectual property) comprehensive operation capabilities rather than manufacturing, with leading companies maintaining competitive advantages through design and supply chain innovations [1][30][31]. - The market for trendy toys is rapidly growing, with a 30% year-on-year increase in the domestic pan-entertainment toy market, expected to maintain a compound annual growth rate of 14% over the next five years [31]. - Companies like Pop Mart are expanding their market presence in Southeast Asia and the US, with revenue growth expected to exceed market expectations [1][30][40]. Additional Important Insights - The beauty industry is transitioning from an incremental market logic to a stock market logic, with new business models and companies emerging [5][6]. - The rise of Generation Z as a primary consumer group is driving demand for products that emphasize emotional and personal expression, leading to structural opportunities in niche markets like trendy toys and beauty care [1][3][8]. - The beauty sector is seeing a shift towards personalized marketing and decentralized promotion strategies, reflecting changes in consumer preferences and shopping behaviors [4][11]. - The competitive landscape in the trendy toy sector is evolving, with leading brands like Pop Mart and others leveraging their IP capabilities to capture market share from smaller players [30][35][36]. Conclusion - The beauty and trendy toy industries are undergoing significant transformations driven by changing consumer preferences, competitive dynamics, and macroeconomic factors. The focus on domestic brands, innovative marketing strategies, and IP management will be crucial for companies looking to capitalize on these trends in the coming years [1][5][30][31].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the strong rebound of domestic brands in sectors such as consumer goods, pharmaceuticals, and technology, driven by the logic of domestic brand substitution and independent performance growth, leading to increased market share and revenue opportunities for these brands [2][3]. Group 1: Domestic Brand Substitution Logic - Public funds have heavily invested in domestic brands, particularly in the cosmetics sector, benefiting from the domestic brand substitution logic, as foreign competitors like Estée Lauder face challenges in the Chinese market [3]. - The stock of Estée Lauder has seen a cumulative decline of over 25% in the last four trading days, while domestic brands like Mao Geping and Shangmei have shown strong resilience, with increases of 6.30% and 3.89% respectively [3]. - In the infant formula sector, domestic brand China Feihe has surged over 10% in the Hong Kong market, supported by significant investments from Ping An Fund and GF Fund [3]. Group 2: Independent Performance Growth - The article emphasizes the importance of independent performance, highlighting that many domestic brands achieve stable growth by relying on the vast domestic market, with companies like Bosideng generating approximately 94% of their revenue from China [6]. - The motorcycle sector has seen a surge in interest for domestic brand Chunfeng Power, with 70 public funds including it in their top ten holdings, reflecting confidence in the brand's growth potential [7]. - The article notes that many companies, including internet and consumer goods firms, have achieved consistent performance growth without international operations, indicating a strong domestic market drive [7]. Group 3: Market Opportunities and External Factors - The article points out that the strong manufacturing capabilities and demand in the domestic market provide public funds with opportunities to capitalize on undervalued stocks that have been unfairly punished by market sentiment [8]. - The pharmaceutical sector is expected to remain resilient against external factors, with domestic innovative drug companies benefiting from supportive policies and technological advancements [9][10]. - The article mentions that the introduction of zero tariffs on certain cancer and rare disease drugs in early 2024 may further mitigate external impacts on the pharmaceutical sector [10].

Core Viewpoint - The recent escalation of tariffs and countermeasures has put unprecedented pressure on import and export companies, but it also presents new opportunities for domestic brands as the focus shifts towards local consumption [1][2]. Group 1: Impact of Tariffs on International Brands - The introduction of tariffs has significantly affected international brands like Nike, which has seen its production costs in Vietnam, Indonesia, and China rise by over 30% [14][17]. - Nike's production in Vietnam has increased from 12% in 2019 to 51% currently, indicating a heavy reliance on this region for manufacturing [8]. - Adidas has experienced a decline in revenue in China, dropping from 45.46 billion yuan in 2018 to 30.97 billion yuan in 2024, with its market share decreasing from 20.74% to 13.08% [18]. Group 2: Opportunities for Domestic Brands - The shrinking market share of international brands due to tariffs creates opportunities for domestic companies to capture this market [23]. - Since 2018, domestic brands have gained traction, with 78.2% of consumers frequently purchasing local products [29]. - Li Ning has seen significant growth, with a revenue increase of 31.85% to 138.80 billion yuan in 2019, and its stock price surged nearly 20 times from 5 HKD to 102 HKD [31][33]. Group 3: Future Market Dynamics - The Chinese sports market is expected to grow, with the government aiming for the sports industry to reach a total scale of 5 trillion yuan by 2025 [41]. - The focus on domestic demand and innovation will likely become the main development line for companies in the face of international trade tensions [50]. - Investors are encouraged to focus on companies with high localization of revenue and competitive advantages in the domestic market [51].