Core Viewpoint - The successful completion of autonomous navigation and remote control tests for the world's first intelligent research and training dual-use vessel marks a significant technological breakthrough in smart navigation [1][10]. Group 1: Vessel Specifications and Capabilities - The intelligent vessel, built by China COSCO Shipping Heavy Industry for Dalian Maritime University, measures approximately 70 meters in length and has a displacement of 1,480 tons [1]. - It is equipped with six major intelligent systems, achieving comprehensive smart capabilities that are internationally leading [1][8]. Group 2: Testing and Performance - The vessel has successfully completed various critical tests, including autonomous berthing, open water navigation, multi-vessel intelligent collision avoidance, and remote control from shore [8]. - The successful navigation through narrow waterways is a key indicator of the vessel's intelligent system performance, showcasing its ability to handle complex conditions [3][5]. Group 3: Technological Advancements - The vessel's intelligent systems have undergone continuous upgrades, particularly in AI algorithms and decision-making capabilities, allowing for full journey autonomous navigation [6][10]. - Compared to typical intelligent vessels domestically and internationally, this vessel has achieved breakthroughs in intelligent system expansion and AI model algorithms for vessel control [8]. Group 4: Future Applications and Initiatives - The vessel commenced a cultural tour along the Maritime Silk Road, covering nearly 2,000 miles and conducting various experiments in busy waterways and remote control [12]. - A new intelligent ship shore-based control center has been established at Dalian Maritime University, enabling remote control testing of vessels docked over ten kilometers away [12][13]. - The "Yuhai Zhizhi" intelligent ship training center was inaugurated, focusing on practical training in intelligent navigation and remote control for students and researchers [13].

Core Viewpoint - The launch of China's third aircraft carrier, Fujian, marks a significant advancement in the country's naval capabilities, transitioning to a new era of aircraft carriers with advanced technologies such as electromagnetic catapults [1][8]. Group 1: Aircraft Carrier Development - The Fujian aircraft carrier, with a full displacement of over 80,000 tons, is China's first domestically designed and built catapult aircraft carrier [1][4]. - Fujian features a flat-deck design and is equipped with electromagnetic catapults and arrestor wires, making it the world's first conventionally powered aircraft carrier to utilize electromagnetic launch technology [4][5]. - Compared to conventional carriers, the catapult launch system allows for aircraft to take off with full fuel and munitions, significantly enhancing combat capabilities [5]. Group 2: Testing and Operational Milestones - The Fujian carrier is currently undergoing sea trials as part of its construction process, with the latest test occurring during the Dragon Boat Festival [4]. - Key milestones include the planned mooring tests in September 2022 and the first sea trial scheduled for May 1, 2024, lasting eight days to test various systems [8]. - The carrier's electromagnetic launch system was first publicly demonstrated in September 2024, showcasing its operational readiness [8]. Group 3: Historical Context of Chinese Aircraft Carriers - The development of the Chinese navy's aircraft carrier fleet began with the Liaoning, which was officially delivered on September 25, 2012, marking the start of China's aircraft carrier era [10]. - The Shandong, China's first fully domestically designed and built aircraft carrier, was delivered on December 17, 2019, further solidifying the country's capabilities [11]. - The transition from modified carriers to fully indigenous designs and the shift from ski-jump to electromagnetic launch systems represent significant advancements in China's naval strategy [13].

Group 1: Industry Overview - The global shipping industry is experiencing a low-carbon transformation, with a significant increase in demand for green ships [3] - The shipbuilding industry in Yangzhou has shown robust growth, with 72 enterprises achieving a total output value of 43.18 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.1% [1] - Yangzhou's high-tech shipbuilding and marine equipment industry is focusing on high-end, intelligent, and green development to enhance production capabilities [1][4] Group 2: Technological Innovations - Companies are adopting technological breakthroughs to gain a competitive edge, such as the early delivery of a 62,000-ton heavy-lift ship, which was completed 223 days ahead of schedule [2] - Key innovations include precise drilling technology for rudder systems, segmented painting processes for engine rooms, and computer simulations for heavy hatch cover positioning [2] - The combination of hardware upgrades and digital management innovations has significantly reduced the construction cycle for roll-on/roll-off ships, positioning the company as a global leader in this segment [2] Group 3: Product Development and Environmental Impact - Yangzhou has delivered China's first self-owned intellectual property, a 10,000-ton pure battery-powered container ship, which can reduce carbon emissions by 2,918 tons annually [3] - The upcoming delivery of a 16,000-box methanol dual-fuel container ship is expected to reduce total carbon emissions by 8.9% through the collaboration of methanol fuel and intelligent power systems [3] - Traditional shipbuilding companies are also entering the clean energy market by leveraging green technologies, such as the delivery of the world's first 950-box methanol dual-fuel feeder container ship [3] Group 4: Strategic Initiatives and Future Goals - Yangzhou has implemented a high-quality development plan for the high-tech shipbuilding and marine equipment industry, focusing on upgrading industrial capabilities and enhancing innovation [4] - The industry aims to achieve a production value of 50 billion yuan by 2026, with high-tech ships accounting for 40% of the provincial market share and marine equipment supporting industries increasing to 30% [4] - Collaborative efforts among enterprises are shifting from isolated operations to a more integrated supply chain approach, enhancing overall industry competitiveness [4]

Economic Overview - In May, China's industrial added value above designated size grew by 5.8% year-on-year, while the service production index increased by 6.2% and retail sales of consumer goods rose by 6.4% [1][2] - The overall economic operation is stable, with some indicators continuing to improve, showcasing strong resilience and vitality in China's economy [1][5] Economic Characteristics - The industrial production saw a rapid increase due to supportive policies, with the added value of the equipment manufacturing industry growing by 9%, contributing 54.3% to industrial production [2] - Employment remained stable, with the urban unemployment rate at 5%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [2] - Consumer price index (CPI) showed a slight year-on-year decline, indicating stable market supply and demand [2] New Growth Drivers - High-tech manufacturing added value increased by 8.6%, and digital product manufacturing grew by 9.1%, both outpacing overall industrial growth [4] - Production of new energy vehicles and solar batteries surged by 31.7% and 27.8%, respectively, indicating robust growth in these sectors [4] Policy Impact - The implementation of proactive macro policies has effectively supported economic stability, with significant contributions to demand expansion and production growth [6] - Retail sales of home appliances and communication equipment saw substantial year-on-year growth, driven by policies encouraging consumption upgrades [6] - Investment in equipment and tools rose by 17.3% in the first five months, contributing 2.3 percentage points to overall investment growth [6] Economic Trends - Despite external challenges, China's economic foundation remains strong, with stable growth momentum and a commitment to high-quality development [8][9] - The first five months of 2023 saw a 9.5% year-on-year increase in high-tech manufacturing added value, with industrial robot production up by 32% [8] - The government has a robust policy toolkit to ensure economic stability and can dynamically adjust measures in response to changing conditions [8]

◎记者 操子怡 全球新船市场进入调整期。咨询机构克拉克森最新报告显示，今年5月，全球新船订单成交量为71艘166 万CGT（修正总吨），按CGT计同比下降55%，环比下降64%。 在业内人士看来，新船市场调整主要缘于地缘政治风险扰动、当前造船价格处于历史高位。此外，过去 几年集中下单导致基数较高，今年以来回落属于正常现象。 与此同时，绿色船型市场异军突起，推动船舶工业加快绿色转型步伐。目前，全球船队绿色化比例不足 10%，克拉克森预计，到2030年全球船队中将有超20%的船舶为替代燃料动力。 多重因素导致新船市场调整 数据显示，今年5月，全球新船订单成交量为71艘166万CGT，较去年同期的366万CGT下降55%，较今 年4月的460万CGT下降64%。其中，中国船企承接新船订单42艘64万CGT，全球市场占有率为39%，蝉 联榜首。 此前，中国船舶工业行业协会公布的数据显示，今年1至4月，全国造船完工1532.0万载重吨，同比下降 8.4%；承接新船订单3069.0万载重吨，同比下降11.1%。 关于新船订单下滑，航运信息咨询平台信德海事网主编陈洋表示，过去几年，中国船舶行业迎来高景气 度周期，船东集中、 ...

Core Viewpoint - The strong performance of consumption in May has significantly contributed to the stability and progress of China's national economy, showcasing the immense potential of the Chinese market [1][9]. Consumption Performance - In May, China's total retail sales of consumer goods reached 41,326 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.4%, which is 1.3 percentage points higher than the previous month and the highest growth rate since early 2024 [1][2]. - The growth rate of 6.4% exceeded market expectations, which were around 5% [1][2]. - The month-on-month growth rate was 0.93%, marking the highest rate since May 2023 [1]. Factors Driving Consumption Growth - Several factors contributed to the acceleration of consumption in May, including the "old-for-new" policy for consumer goods, the "6·18" online shopping promotion, and favorable holiday consumption trends [2]. - During the "May Day" and "Dragon Boat Festival" holidays, domestic tourism increased significantly, with a 6.4% year-on-year rise in the number of travelers during the "May Day" holiday [2]. - Retail sales of major household appliances and communication equipment saw substantial year-on-year growth, with increases of 53%, 33%, 30.5%, and 25.6% respectively, contributing 1.9 percentage points to the total retail sales growth [2]. Economic Stability Indicators - From January to May, the retail sales of services increased by 5.2%, with May's service production index growing by 6.2% year-on-year [4]. - The unemployment rate in urban areas was 5% in May, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a stable employment situation [8]. - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a slight year-on-year decrease, but the core CPI, excluding food and energy, indicated a stable market supply and demand relationship [8]. Industrial Production and Trade - In May, the industrial added value for large-scale enterprises grew by 5.8% year-on-year, maintaining a relatively high growth rate despite a slight decrease from the previous month [6][7]. - The total import and export volume in May increased by 2.7% year-on-year, with exports growing by 6.3%, reflecting the diversified development of foreign trade [6]. Future Economic Outlook - The overall economic operation is expected to remain stable in the first half of the year, with GDP growth projected to exceed 5.0% in the second quarter [10]. - The government is advised to implement more proactive macroeconomic policies to stimulate investment and consumption growth [10][11].

Emerging Markets Dynamics - Vietnam has officially joined the BRICS cooperation mechanism as a partner country, welcomed by the Brazilian government, which currently holds the rotating presidency of BRICS [1] - The BRICS partner countries now include Nigeria, Belarus, Bolivia, Kazakhstan, Cuba, Malaysia, Thailand, Uganda, and Uzbekistan, expanding the total number of BRICS members to 11 [1] Financial Cooperation - The People's Bank of China and the Central Bank of Turkey have renewed a bilateral currency swap agreement with a scale of 350 billion RMB (approximately 189 billion Turkish Lira), effective for three years [2] - A memorandum of cooperation was signed to establish a RMB clearing arrangement in Turkey, enhancing financial cooperation and facilitating cross-border trade and investment [2] Platform Developments - TikTok announced an investment expansion in the UK to approximately £140 million (around 1.36 billion RMB), including the establishment of a new office in London and an increase in employee numbers to 3,000 [3] - TikTok Shop in Southeast Asia has relaxed entry policies for businesses, removing e-commerce experience requirements, allowing individual sellers to enter the market more easily [4] - TikTok Shop has launched a "Hot Product Takeoff Plan" in the US and Europe, providing various support resources to help merchants boost sales during the summer season [5] Industry Observations - Vietnam's commercial air conditioning market is projected to reach $600 million in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 14.9%, while the first quarter of 2025 is expected to see a market size of $123 million, growing by 13.9% [9] - In Indonesia, the commercial air conditioning market is expected to reach $218 million in the first quarter of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.2% [10] - The Chinese mobile gaming industry accounted for 36.6% of global revenue in May 2025, with 33 Chinese companies making it to the top 100 global mobile game publishers [11] Shipping and Logistics - In the first five months of the year, Chinese shipbuilders secured 274 new ship orders, accounting for approximately 49% of the global market share, while global new ship orders have dropped to a near four-year low [12][13] - The demand for OLED display panels is expected to grow significantly, with a projected annual growth rate of 69% in 2025, driven by strong demand in the gaming sector [14] Policy Changes - Starting July 1, Vietnam will require e-commerce platforms to withhold and pay taxes on behalf of sellers, including VAT and personal income tax, with specific rates outlined for different types of transactions [21]

宏观经济 | 动态跟踪 增长无惧外部环境变化，未来波动预计小 于预期——5 月经济数据点评 研究结论 报告发布日期 2025 年 06 月 16 日 | 陈至奕 | 021-63325888*6044 | | --- | --- | | | chenzhiyi@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860519090001 | | | 香港证监会牌照：BUK982 | | 孙国翔 | sunguoxiang@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860523080009 | 出口并未失速，且后续新出口订单仍值得 期待——5 月进出口点评 2025-06-12 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表联系。并请阅读本证券研究报告最后一页的免责申明。 ⚫ 5 月半数时间未被《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》所覆盖，因此市场对经济数据 的预期偏低，同时考虑到未来国际环境变化，下半年预期更弱，但我们认为，不仅 5 月增长数据具有韧性，且结构亮点显著，内需与科技升级能够支撑全年经济达到 目标： ⚫ 生产数据有下行但不多， ...

在大规模设备更新带动下，相关行业生产快速增长。5月份，规模以上锂离子电池制造、船舶及相关装 置制造、锅炉及原动设备制造等行业增加值同比分别增长28.6%、12.8%、11.8%。以旧换新政策持续显 效作用下，绿色、智能、高品质产品的消费需求持续释放，带动了新能源汽车、平板电脑等生产增长。 宏观政策持续发力，提升了市场活力，改善了企业效益和预期。1—4月份，规模以上工业企业利润同比 增长1.4%，比1—3月份加快0.6个百分点，其中4月当月增长3%，比上月加快0.4个百分点。 下一步，我国将实施好更加积极有为的宏观政策，进一步扩大国内需求、畅通经济循环、激发动力活 力，不断巩固经济向好发展的基础。 在国务院今天举行的新闻发布会上，国家统计局相关负责人表示，从5月份相关指标看，宏观政策持续 发力，促进了需求扩大、生产增长、预期改善、活力释放，为经济平稳运行提供了重要支撑。 从内需看，消费品以旧换新政策，设备更新改造政策的带动作用持续显现。 国家统计局新闻发言人 付凌晖：5月份，限额以上单位商品零售额中，家用电器和音像器材类、通信器 材类、文化办公用品类、家具类商品零售额同比增长在25.6%～53%之间，速度非常快 ...

Group 1 - Japan's Economic Revitalization Minister, Akizawa Ryozo, is negotiating with the U.S. regarding tariffs, focusing on a package plan targeting China's rare earth regulations and U.S. liquefied natural gas exports [1][3] - Japan believes it has advantages in rare earth processing, recycling, and reduced usage, proposing to assist the U.S. with technology in these areas, as well as in graphite and gallium [3] - Japan plans to increase imports of U.S. liquefied natural gas and purchase billions of dollars in semiconductors from U.S. companies, while also offering support for U.S. chip manufacturing [3] Group 2 - Japan's trade surplus with the U.S. is approximately $60 billion annually, making it difficult for Japan to solely reduce this surplus to satisfy U.S. demands [5] - Japan's strategy involves sacrificing third-party interests, particularly China, to maintain its own trade benefits, reflecting a form of diplomatic opportunism [5] - The U.S. has conflicting views among its officials regarding trade negotiations, complicating Japan's efforts to secure favorable terms [5][7] Group 3 - The chaotic negotiation environment, including disputes among U.S. officials, significantly reduces the likelihood of Japan reaching an agreement before the G7 summit [7] - Japan's attempts to appease the U.S. at the expense of its trade relations with China are viewed as a poor strategy, with China firmly opposing such actions [7]