Core Viewpoint - The gold market has experienced a significant surge, with prices rising over 25% in just two months, surpassing the critical threshold of $4,300 per ounce [1]. Price Movements - Spot gold prices reached a peak of $4,381.49 per ounce, with a daily increase of over 3%, closing at $4,355.69 per ounce, up 2.46%. COMEX gold futures also showed strong performance, closing at $4,374.30 per ounce, with a daily increase of 3.82% [3]. - Last Friday, gold prices hit a historical high of $4,392 per ounce but fell back, ending with a 1.8% drop, marking the largest single-day decline since May. Meanwhile, the Shanghai Gold Exchange reported physical gold prices at 991.32 yuan per gram, up 1.81% [5]. Market Dynamics - The rise in gold prices is driven by multiple factors, including increasing expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, heightened demand for safe-haven assets, and uncertainties stemming from U.S.-China trade negotiations. Additionally, a 20-day government shutdown in the U.S. has delayed the release of key economic data, reducing market transparency and increasing investor caution, which further enhances gold's safe-haven appeal [5][6]. - Political developments in Japan and the Eurozone have also provided additional support for gold prices [6]. Future Outlook - Investors should closely monitor upcoming U.S. CPI data, progress in U.S.-China trade negotiations, and the Federal Reserve's upcoming meeting, as these key events will directly impact short-term gold price movements [6].

Core Viewpoint - The rise in international gold prices has significantly catalyzed the profitability and market value of Zijin Mining [1] Financial Performance - Zijin Mining's Q3 report shows a 55.5% increase in net profit attributable to shareholders, reaching 37.86 billion yuan, with Q3 net profit hitting a record 14.57 billion yuan [2] - The company's gold business has become the primary profit source, contributing 40.4% to the group's gross profit in the first three quarters of 2025, driven by a substantial increase in gold prices compared to copper [2][11] - Full-year profit expectations have been raised to approximately 51 billion yuan by several institutions, indicating a strong performance that could place Zijin Mining among the top 20 A-share listed companies [3][11] Market Dynamics - Despite the rising gold prices, there has been a divergence in stock performance, with Zijin Mining's stock price not following the upward trend of gold prices since the beginning of Q4 [4][18] - The average increase in gold prices was 47% in the first three quarters, while Zijin Mining's stock price rose by 99%, indicating a strong correlation between gold prices and company profitability [18] Production and Sales - The company has seen continuous growth in gold production, exceeding annual targets, with significant contributions from newly acquired and newly operational mines [10] - Sales prices for gold ingots and concentrates reached 746.43 yuan/gram and 685.21 yuan/gram respectively, with a gross margin of 72.8%, reflecting a nearly 5 percentage point increase year-on-year [9] Price Trends - The price of gold has surged from approximately 2,624 USD/ounce to around 3,858 USD/ounce, marking a 47% increase, while copper prices only rose by 17% during the same period [8] - The fluctuations in gold prices and the performance of copper will be critical variables affecting Zijin Mining's Q4 performance [13]

编辑丨巫燕玲 国际金价的上涨，成为了紫金矿业盈利、市值提升最好的催化剂。 紫金矿业上周末披露的三季报显示， 当期归母净利润增长55.5%至378.6亿元， 其中第三季度 净利润达到145.7亿元 ， 再次刷新历史最好成绩。 而就公司两大主营产品铜、金价格走势来看，年内金价涨幅明显大于铜价，这使得今年公司黄 金业务利润占比不断提升。"2025前三季度矿产金占集团毛利比例已提升至40.4%，成为公司 第一大盈利来源。"西部证券指出。 记者丨董鹏 10月以来，国际金价仍在不断走高，使紫金矿业的上述业绩驱动逻辑得以持续，甚至不排除四 季度盈利进一步增长的可能。 三季报披露后，包括西部证券在内的机构亦将紫金矿业全年盈利预期上调至510亿元， 预计公 司今年净利润甚至有望杀入A股上市公司前20。 强劲的业绩增长，也刺激着紫金矿业等黄金企业股价不断走高。自然资源部近期转发的文章显 示，在全球最大的50家矿企中，今年涨幅居前的企业大多为金银企业，紫金矿业年内涨幅也远 超必和必拓、力拓。 利润"含金量"提升 作为今年"最拥挤的投资赛道"，国际金价的涨幅显著大于铜价。 据统计，前三季度，伦敦金现货由2624美元/盎司上涨至385 ...

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs forecasts Zijin Mining (02899, 601899.SH) will maintain strong profit growth momentum from 2025 to 2026, achieving an approximate 50% annual compound growth rate, primarily benefiting from rising gold and copper prices as well as increased production [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Zijin Mining reported a net profit of 14.6 billion RMB for the third quarter, with earnings per share of 0.548 RMB, representing a year-on-year increase of 57% [1] - For the first three quarters, the recurring net profit reached 34.7 billion RMB, equivalent to 69% of Goldman Sachs' full-year estimate for 2025 and 73% of market expectations [1] - The recurring performance is generally in line with both Goldman Sachs' and market expectations [1] Group 2: Price Target Adjustments - Goldman Sachs maintains a "Buy" rating for Zijin Mining, raising the target price for H-shares from 30 HKD to 37.5 HKD and for A-shares from 31 RMB to 37.5 RMB [1] Group 3: Earnings Forecast Adjustments - Based on the global commodities team's revised forecasts for copper and gold prices, along with the impact of the spin-off of Zijin Gold International (02259) and the recent acquisition of RG Gold Mine, Zijin Mining's earnings forecasts for the fiscal years 2025 to 2027 have been increased by 1% to 26% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices has led to a significant increase in gold-related ETFs, driven by macroeconomic factors, geopolitical risks, and market liquidity, indicating a strong investment interest in gold as a core asset [1] Group 1: Market Performance - As of 9:40 AM on October 21, gold ETFs such as Huaxia (518850) rose by 2.33%, and gold stock ETFs (159562) increased by 2.03%, with notable gains in holdings like ChaoHua Jewelry, Zhaojin Mining, Zijin Mining, Sichuan Gold, and Shandong Gold [1] - The international gold price has recently reached record highs, contributing to the expansion of management scale for gold ETFs and a noticeable increase in investment enthusiasm [1] Group 2: Driving Factors - Multiple public fund institutions attribute the current rise in gold prices to a combination of geopolitical risks, the global credit system, and liquidity in the market, with central banks and institutional funds continuing to increase their holdings [1] - Industry experts suggest that while short-term fluctuations may occur, the long-term support factors for gold remain strong, reinforcing its importance and resilience as a core asset allocation [1] Group 3: Cost Efficiency - The management and custody fees for Huaxia Gold ETF (518850) and Gold Stock ETF (159562) are combined at a low rate of 0.2%, making it more cost-effective for investors to participate in the gold market [1]

Core Insights - The gold sector is experiencing a strong upward trend, with the CSI Gold Industry Index rising by 1.70% and key stocks like Zhaojin Mining and Zijin Mining showing significant gains [1] - The Gold Stock ETF has seen a notable increase in both scale and shares, indicating growing investor interest and confidence in gold as a safe-haven asset [2] - The ongoing U.S. government shutdown is contributing to economic uncertainty, which is further driving demand for gold and other precious metals [3] Group 1: Market Performance - The CSI Gold Industry Index (931238) increased by 1.70%, with Zhaojin Mining (01818) up 4.13% and Zijin Mining (02899) up 3.82% [1] - The Gold Stock ETF (517520) rose by 1.91%, with a 10.48% increase over the past month [1][2] Group 2: Fund Flows and Investor Sentiment - The Gold Stock ETF has seen a scale increase of 320 million yuan over the past week, ranking it among the top in its category [2] - The ETF's shares reached a new high of 6.8 billion, reflecting strong investor interest [2] - Continuous net inflows into the Gold Stock ETF over the past eight days totaled 1.965 billion yuan, with a peak single-day inflow of 583 million yuan [2] Group 3: Economic Context - The U.S. government shutdown has led to significant delays in economic data releases, increasing market uncertainty and boosting safe-haven demand for gold [3] - Political and economic concerns are identified as key drivers for the recent rebound in gold prices following a decline [3] - Expectations for a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve have risen to 97%, further supporting gold prices [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a collective rebound in Hong Kong gold stocks on October 21, with notable increases in share prices for several companies [1] Group 2 - Zhaojin Mining (01818.HK) saw a rise of 4.91%, reaching HKD 32.02 [1] - Zijin Mining (02899.HK) increased by 3.33%, with shares priced at HKD 33.56 [1] - Shandong Gold (01787.HK) experienced a 2.35% gain, trading at HKD 36.56 [1] - Lingbao Gold (03330.HK) rose by 2.18%, with a share price of HKD 19.22 [1] - Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining (06693.HK) increased by 1.81%, reaching HKD 30.3 [1]

今年大家关注度比较高的就是黄金。黄金在过去几年呈现出了上涨行情，它的行情特点基本上是短期的 快速上涨之后进入到一个震荡区间，再过一段时间之后突破震荡区间再进入到上行的趋势节奏。从今年 来看的话，今年上半年尤其是四月份金价也是短期呈现出了比较快速的上涨，尤其是在三月份到四月份 中美之间的贸易冲突和当时的一些地缘形势的变化都引发了金价的短期快速上行，当时也是来到了3500 美元/盎司左右的高点。 此后从四月中下旬一直到九月份，金价还是处在震荡区间，而九月初也是突破了震荡区间，当前也是来 到了4200美元/盎司以上的位置。这轮行情突破一方面是有美联储降息预期的催化，同时近期金价的再 度快速拉升其实也是受到了中美新一轮贸易冲突等事件的影响。 我们回到黄金本身的分析框架上来讲，传统来看黄金主要是看美债实际收益率、美元指数，和避险需求 等分析逻辑。从美债实际收益率和美元指数的角度来看，降息周期显然是利好于金价的表现。而从避险 的因素来讲，今年宏观层面确实也发生了很多突发性事件，包括中东的一些冲突事件以及贸易争端等 等，其实都使得全球的避险需求有一定的抬升。 另外，从2023年以来，金价上涨有一个非常重要的驱动因素就是央行 ...

Market Overview - US stock indices rose significantly, with the Dow Jones up 515.97 points (1.12%), Nasdaq up 310.57 points (1.37%), and S&P 500 up 71.12 points (1.07%) [2] - Spot gold prices hit a new all-time high, closing at $4,355.69 per ounce, driven by expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and safe-haven buying [9] Banking Sector - Zion Bank reported better-than-expected earnings for Q3, with earnings per share at $1.48, surpassing analysts' expectations of $1.46, leading to a 3% increase in after-hours trading [5] - The bank's credit loss reserves increased to $49 million from $13 million year-over-year, alleviating some concerns about regional bank credit risks [5] - Major banks saw stock price increases, with JPMorgan up over 1%, Goldman Sachs up over 1%, Citigroup up over 2%, and Wells Fargo up over 3% [6] Technology Sector - Apple shares rose 3.94%, reaching a new annual high, supported by strong demand for the iPhone 17, which saw a 14% increase in sales compared to the iPhone 16 within the first ten days of launch [7][8] - Loop Capital upgraded Apple's rating from hold to buy, raising the target price from $226 to $315 due to the strong demand for the latest iPhone [8] - The technology sector overall saw gains, with the tech giants index up 1.44% [7] Gold Market - Spot gold surged over 2%, reaching a peak of $4,381.49 per ounce during trading, with expectations of continued price increases in the coming weeks [9] - Gold mining stocks performed well, with notable increases in companies like NovaGold Resources (up over 5%) and Barrick Gold (up over 4%) [9] Chinese Stocks - Chinese stocks listed in the US saw widespread gains, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index up 2.39% and the Chinese Tech Leaders Index up 2.31% [10] - Individual stocks such as iQIYI (up over 8%) and Alibaba (up nearly 4%) contributed to the positive performance [10]

Core Viewpoint - Shandong Gold International Co., Ltd. (referred to as "Shandong Gold International") has submitted an IPO application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, aiming to raise funds for mining construction, exploration, acquisition of quality mining assets, and repayment of interest-bearing debts related to Osino [1][2]. Financial Performance - Shandong Gold International has shown continuous growth in recent years, with projected revenue exceeding 13 billion yuan in 2024. In the first half of 2025, revenue and profit increased by 42.2% and 47.64% year-on-year, respectively [2][11]. - The company's revenue from 2022 to 2024 was 8.373 billion yuan, 8.095 billion yuan, and 13.580 billion yuan, with a compound annual growth rate of 27.35%. The net profit during the same period was 1.247 billion yuan, 1.566 billion yuan, and 2.438 billion yuan, with a compound annual growth rate of 39.86% [10]. Mining Assets and Operations - Shandong Gold International has a comprehensive mining rights area of 259.9 square kilometers in China and 5,709.7 square kilometers in Namibia, indicating significant future exploration and resource potential [2][13]. - The company ranks sixth among gold producers in China and fourth in gold reserves, with gold resources reaching 284.6 tons (9,150.6 thousand ounces) as of June 30, 2025, nearly doubling from 146.7 tons (4,715.3 thousand ounces) as of December 31, 2023 [7][13]. Shareholding Structure - As of the latest feasible date, Shandong Gold Mining holds approximately 28.89% of the shares, making it the controlling shareholder. Other shareholders include Wang Shui with approximately 11.96% and other A-share shareholders with about 59.15% [5]. Cost Efficiency - The all-in sustaining cost for gold production in the fiscal year ending December 31, 2024, is projected to be 683.5 USD per ounce, placing it in the top 10% of global gold mining costs, compared to the global average of 1,438.1 USD per ounce [7].