2026年1月金股陆续披露。 整体来看，有色板块在1月获得券商一致青睐，紫金矿业被10家券商扎堆推荐，是当之无愧的"人气王"。此外，电子、机械、非银板块也有不俗人气。 展望1月市场行情，券商普遍认为，"春季躁动"正徐徐展开，中期大盘趋势依然向上。 1月金股出炉，紫金矿业人气最高 回顾2025年全年，券商金股在波澜壮阔的A股行情中收益亮眼。根据每市APP数据，国元证券月度金股组合在2025年以超80%的收益率居于第一，东北证券、开源证 券去年收益率也近70%，东兴证券、华鑫证券、招商证券等收益率超60%。 进入2026年，1月金股陆续披露。 在众多推荐标的中，紫金矿业获得中泰证券、光大证券等10家机构的一致推荐，是当之无愧的最热金股。推荐券商普遍认为，公司兼具"金+铜"双轮驱动逻辑，在 降息周期与供需格局优化的背景下，金价与铜价有望同步上行，公司业绩弹性与资源成长性突出。 中际旭创则被开源证券、招商证券等7家券商推荐，人气排名第二。推荐理由上，券商认为，作为光模块龙头，公司受益于AI算力建设加速，1.6T等高端产品有望放 量，业绩增长确定性较强。 保险板块也获得券商高度关注，例如中国平安获得国联民生证券、申万宏 ...

Core Insights - Sanya's tourism market experienced a strong start in 2026, with significant increases in both visitor numbers and consumer spending [2] - The city received a total of 650,800 visitors from January 1 to 3, marking a year-on-year growth of 17.84% [2] - Total tourism revenue reached 1.299 billion yuan, reflecting an 18.37% increase compared to the previous year [2] Visitor Statistics - Sanya Phoenix International Airport recorded 1,350 flights, a year-on-year increase of 22.84% [2] - The train station served 198,300 passengers, showing a growth of 34.71% year-on-year [2] Duty-Free Sales Performance - Duty-free sales during the three-day period amounted to 469 million yuan, representing a remarkable year-on-year growth of 103.9% [2] Policy and Product Development - The growth in Sanya's tourism is attributed to continuous investment in policy-driven initiatives, product innovation, and service system optimization [2] - The city is actively integrating tourism resources to create a diverse product system, including coastal health, marine research, and low-altitude tourism [2] Enhanced Visitor Experience - New interactive activities, such as flash mobs and themed check-in events, have enriched the visitor experience [2] - The city organized food festivals and promotional activities to stimulate holiday consumption [2] Safety and Service Improvements - Service details and safety measures have been enhanced, including "warm-hearted" activities at airports and train stations [3] - Comprehensive safety checks and training exercises have been conducted to improve emergency response capabilities [3]

Core Viewpoint - The tourism market is expected to see a strong start in 2026, with domestic travel during the New Year holiday showing growth in both the number of travelers and total spending compared to 2024 [1] Group 1: Domestic Travel Performance - The number of domestic travelers and total spending during the New Year holiday is projected to increase by approximately 5% and 6% respectively compared to the 2024 New Year holiday [1] - The overall performance of domestic tourism aligns with expectations, while inbound and outbound travel numbers have exceeded forecasts [1] Group 2: Duty-Free Sales - Duty-free sales data has outperformed expectations, with sales from offshore duty-free shops increasing by about 50% compared to the 2024 New Year holiday [1] - Continuous policy benefits are being released, prompting duty-free businesses to actively launch promotional activities [1] Group 3: Hotel and Scenic Area Performance - Hotel night stays have shown significant growth, although prices still have a gap compared to the 2024 New Year holiday [1] - Scenic areas have generally performed well, with prominent mountainous scenic spots being particularly outstanding [1] Group 4: Future Outlook - The upcoming Spring Festival will have a nine-day holiday, which is expected to further enhance travel enthusiasm and market performance [1]

Overall Market Outlook - The domestic tourism market is expected to perform well in 2026, with a projected increase of approximately 5% in domestic travel volume and 6% in total spending during the New Year holiday compared to 2024 [1] - The recovery trend remains K-shaped, with a low base effect for mid-tier consumer leaders and a shift from pilot exploration to large-scale replication in outbound demand [1] Domestic Travel Performance - During the New Year holiday, 142 million domestic trips were made, representing a 5.2% increase from 2024, with total spending reaching 84.789 billion yuan, up 6.3% [1] - The average spending per person increased by 1.1% compared to 2024, driven by a rich supply of winter tourism options [1] - The total inter-regional movement of people was estimated at 590 million, with a daily average of 198 million, marking a 19.5% year-on-year increase [1] Duty-Free Sales - Duty-free sales during the New Year holiday saw a significant increase, with 442,000 items sold, a 52.4% year-on-year growth, and total shopping amounts reaching 712 million yuan, up 128.9% [2] - The number of shoppers increased by 60.6% compared to the previous year, indicating strong recovery post-border closure [2] Scenic Spots Performance - Major scenic spots showed strong performance, with Songcheng performing 67 shows, a 52.3% increase from 2024, and Huangshan receiving over 75,000 visitors, up 76.5% [3] - Emei Mountain and Jiuhua Mountain also reported significant increases in visitor numbers, with growth rates of 20.9% and approximately 30% respectively [3] Online Travel Agency (OTA) Trends - The "please take 3 days off for 8 days" trend boosted long-distance travel demand, with significant increases in flight and hotel bookings [4] - High-quality hotels and boutique accommodations saw a notable rise in bookings, with domestic hotel reservations increasing by 280% on January 1 [4] Hotel Industry Insights - The average daily rate (ADR) for hotels during the New Year holiday was 204.3 yuan, a 13.8% increase from 2025, although still lower than 2024 [6] - The occupancy rate for hotels was 59.4%, showing a 2.9 percentage point increase from 2025 [6] Restaurant Sector Activity - Restaurant consumption was vibrant, with a 142% increase in traffic for the "must-eat" list during the New Year holiday [7] - Major cities reported significant growth in restaurant sales, with Beijing's dining sector up 4.6% and Guangzhou's up 18.9% year-on-year [7]

核心观点 【市场回顾】 市 场 研 究 [Table_Title] 万联晨会 [Table_MeetReportDate] 2026 年 01 月 05 日 星期一 [Table_Summary] 概览 2025 年最后一个交易日，上证指数收涨 0.09%报 3968.84 点，深证成 指跌 0.58%，创业板指跌 1.23%；沪深两市成交额 2.05 万亿元。申万 行业方面，国防军工、传媒、房地产等领涨；通信、农林牧渔、电子 等领跌。概念板块方面，小红书概念、快手概念、中船系等上涨，硅 能源、有机硅概念、液冷服务器等下跌。港股方面，恒生指数收跌 0.87%报 25630.54 点，恒生科技指数跌 1.12%；海外方面，美国三大 股指全线收跌，道指跌 0.63%报 48063.29 点，标普 500 指数跌 0.74% 报 6845.5 点，纳指跌 0.76%报 23241.99 点；欧洲主要股指在年末交 易日呈现小幅回调。 | [Table_InnerMarketIndex] | 国内市场表现 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 指数名称 | 收盘 | 涨跌幅% | | 上证指数 | 3,9 ...

Core Insights - The tourism market is expected to see a strong start in 2026, with domestic travel during the New Year holiday projected to increase by approximately 5% in terms of the number of trips and 6% in total spending compared to the 2024 New Year holiday [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Domestic tourism performance aligns with expectations, while inbound and outbound travel numbers have exceeded forecasts [1] - Duty-free sales have shown significant growth, with offshore duty-free sales increasing by about 50% compared to the 2024 New Year holiday [1] - Hotel occupancy rates have improved, although prices still show a gap compared to 2024 [1] Group 2: Sector Highlights - Scenic spots have generally performed well, with prominent mountainous scenic areas standing out [1] - The upcoming Spring Festival, with a 9-day holiday, is expected to further enhance travel enthusiasm, indicating a positive outlook for the tourism market [1]

他表示，在海外市场方面，欧美在AI(人工智能)资本开支驱动下已经呈现"投资强于消费"、大小企业盈 利分化、就业下降和薪资增速放缓的特征，这些特征又为降息周期的持续提供了基础。同时，美国财政 宽松在"大美丽法案"出台后几成定局，财政扩张有望点燃全球大宗商品补库周期。 新兴市场凭借"人口红利+关键矿产"双重优势，在降息周期中吸引FDI(外商直接投资)回流，工业化与城 镇化提速。中国电网设备、储能、锂电、光伏、工程机械、商用车等出口链将直接受益，中间品与资本 品订单弹性最大。 国金证券首席策略分析师牟一凌预计，2026年A股非金融地产行业的ROE(净资产收益率)将由当前的 7.2%抬升至7.9%，盈利节奏前低后高，市场脱离"低回报"区间。他建议，沿四条主线布局——工业资 源品、设备出口、消费回补、非银金融，并重点跟踪电力系统建设对铝、铜、钢、煤炭等需求的兑现。 在国内消费端，房价对居民支出的拖累已钝化，贸易结汇率回升、入境免签带动外国游客增加，航空、 酒店、免税、食品饮料等行业销售净利率改善，但是相对估值仍低于2022年低点。资金面上，居民储蓄 向"固收+"迁移，养老金、保险资金持续增配权益；政策下调保险风险因子并 ...

证券研究报告|行业研究周报 [Table_Date] 2026 年 01 月 04 日 [Table_Title] 元旦出行稳健增长，离岛免税持续亮眼 投资建议 展望 26 年，我们建议关注高景气成长赛道以及政策、科技加 持下服务业景气拐点赛道，具体包括：（1）服务消费迎来政 策及行业新需求共振，有望驱动行业拐点，包括免税、银发 旅游、育儿消费等。受益标的包括中国中免、华住酒店、锦 江酒店、首旅酒店、三峡旅游、君亭酒店、孩子王、海底 捞、百胜中国、长白山等。（2）新消费拥有需求长逻辑，景 气度有望维持，当前行业龙头估值处于相对低位，26 年仍然 拥有足够弹性，包括潮玩、茶饮、时尚黄金珠宝、保健品 等。受益标的包括泡泡玛特、名创优品、潮宏基、老铺黄 金、若羽臣、古茗、蜜雪集团等。（3）零售业态创新+出海打 开新成长空间，受益标的包括小商品城、赛维时代等。（4） AI+应用 26 年有望迎来百花齐放，从主题到商业化变现加 速，受益标的包括焦点科技、豆神教育、青木科技、科锐国 际、米奥会展等。 风险提示 宏观经济下行，居民收入及消费意愿恢复不及预期，行业竞 争加剧。 [Table_Title2] 社服零售行业周报 ...

Cross-Border Trade - The State Council, led by Premier Li Qiang, has initiated policies to promote cross-border trade facilitation, emphasizing its importance in creating a top-tier business environment [1] - Cross-border trade is expected to transition from "scale expansion" to "high-quality development," with an anticipated annual growth rate of over 15% from 2026 to 2030 [1] Low Altitude Economy - The E40H unmanned aerial vehicle system from Yufeng Future has received a type certificate from the Civil Aviation Administration of China, marking a significant milestone in the low-altitude economy [2] - The low-altitude economy is projected to reach a market size of 1.5 trillion yuan by 2025 and over 3.5 trillion yuan by 2035, driven by advancements in various sectors [2][6] Semiconductor Industry - Domestic semiconductor companies are increasingly disclosing major merger and acquisition plans, indicating a rapid acceleration in industry consolidation [3] - Key mergers include SMIC's acquisition of a 49% stake in Northern Semiconductor for 40.6 billion yuan, reflecting a strategic intent to enhance core competitiveness [3][4] Oil and Gas - A recent military conflict in Venezuela has led to a complete halt of the country's oil exports, significantly impacting global heavy crude oil supply and increasing oil price pressures [4][5] - The situation has raised concerns over energy supply security, with shipping risks in the Caribbean further exacerbating the issue [5] Commercial Aerospace - The commercial space sector in China is experiencing robust growth, with multiple rocket launches planned for 2025, contributing to the country's ambitions in space exploration [5][6] - The satellite internet market, leveraging low Earth orbit satellites, is becoming a focal point for global competition, with over 70,000 low Earth orbit satellite applications expected by the end of 2024 [6] Duty-Free Market - The Hainan duty-free market saw significant growth during the New Year holiday, with sales reaching 712 million yuan, a 128.9% increase year-on-year [7][8] - The zero-tariff policy has expanded significantly, now covering 6,600 product categories, which is expected to have a substantial impact on the local and national duty-free business [8] Nuclear Fusion - The EAST nuclear fusion experiment has confirmed the existence of a density-free zone, providing critical insights for high-density operation in magnetic confinement fusion devices [8][9] - The Chinese government is prioritizing nuclear fusion as a new economic growth point, with significant investments expected in the coming years [9] Brain-Computer Interface - Neuralink plans to start mass production of brain-computer interface devices in 2026, with advancements in automated surgical processes [10] - The industry is gaining traction with supportive policies from the government, indicating a growing interest in applications for movement disorders and mental health [10]

报告导读： 2026年元旦假期，离岛免税购物热度持续走高，交通出行再创新高。 以上内容节选自国泰海通证券已发布的证券研究报告。 报告名称： 2026旅游市场强劲开局，行业前景可期 ；报告日期：2026.01.04 报告作者： 刘越男（分析师），登记编号：S0880516030003 许樱之（分析师），登记编号：S0880525040012 重要提醒 2026年元旦假期国内出游1.42亿人次。 我们根据"文旅之声"官方微信公众号发布数据测算，2026年元旦假期游客数量、总花费与客单价较2024年均有提 升。根据文旅部公布的数据，2026年元旦假期3天，全国国内出游1.42亿人次，较2024年增长5.19%；国内出游总花费847.89亿元，较2024年增长 6.35%。平均客单价597.1元，较2024年增长1.1%。 离岛免税购物热度持续走高。 根据中国新闻网报道，据海口海关统计，2026年1月1日—2日，海口海关共监管海南离岛免税销售30.7万件，同比增长 48.3%；购物人数6.5万人次，同比增长60.9%；购物金额5.05亿元，同比增长121.5%。继2026年1月1日销售数据大涨后，1月2日延续涨势。海 ...