Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index is expected to rise towards 26,000 points due to the postponement of tariffs by the US and a stable economic outlook in mainland China, although corporate earnings improvements are limited [2] - Active trading in the Hong Kong market reflects a positive risk appetite, with capital rotating across different sectors [2] - New trade negotiations between China and the US are set to begin, contributing to a more favorable trade environment [2] Company Insights: Xtep International (1368) - Xtep's total retail sales volume (RSV) showed a slight year-on-year slowdown in Q2 2025, with online sales performing better than offline [9] - The company plans to gradually recover 100-200 stores for direct-to-consumer (DTC) transformation starting in Q4 2025, with a total of about 500 stores targeted for recovery by FY26E [9] - Xtep's management expects a net profit growth of over 10% year-on-year for FY25E, maintaining a stable retail discount level of 25-30% [9] Company Insights: Anta Sports (2020) - Anta reported stable performance in Q2 2025, with its main brand and FILA showing low single-digit and mid-single-digit growth, respectively [14] - The company has reaffirmed its FY25E guidance, expecting growth rates of high single digits for its main brand and over 30% for other brands [14] - Anta is focusing on optimizing its offline store structure and managing online discounts to maintain brand image and profitability [14] Financial Projections - Xtep's revenue is projected to grow from 8,423 million RMB in FY23A to 11,412 million RMB in FY25E, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 7% [10] - Anta's revenue is expected to increase from 10,074 million RMB in FY24A to 12,935 million RMB in FY26E, reflecting a robust growth trajectory [10] Valuation Metrics - Xtep's FY25E price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected at 9.6x, which is significantly below its 5-year average valuation [9] - Anta's FY25E P/E ratio is estimated at 17.0x, also below its 10-year average, indicating potential undervaluation [14]

Group 1 - Semiconductor company SMIC (00981) continued its upward trend, reaching HKD 48.75 with a 3.17% increase [1] - Technical indicators show that the stock price has successfully broken through MA10 (HKD 46.23) and MA30 (HKD 43.51), with a MACD golden cross indicating strong short-term upward momentum [1] - The stock price is approaching a key resistance level at HKD 50.4, with potential for a challenge to HKD 53.4 if this level is surpassed [1] Group 2 - Immediate support is identified at HKD 45.2, with a potential drop to HKD 42.5 if this support is breached [1] - The current market activity is robust, with a 9.6% five-day volatility indicating active trading in the semiconductor sector [1] - Derivative tools show significant leverage effects, with notable increases in related warrants and certificates during recent price movements [2][5] Group 3 - For bullish strategies, options such as Guojun call warrant (exercise price HKD 48.05, 2.8x leverage) and HSBC call warrant (exercise price HKD 48, 2.7x leverage) are highlighted as providing solid leverage [5] - Bearish strategies include options like Societe Generale bear certificate (redemption price HKD 52, 12.4x leverage) and Citigroup bear certificate (redemption price HKD 52.4, 11.6x leverage) for risk hedging [8] - The market is observing a potential short-term volatility increase due to conflicting technical indicators, suggesting a cautious approach may be warranted [1]

Core Viewpoint - Semiconductor company SMIC (中芯国际) shows positive technical indicators, with a current stock price of HKD 48.8, reflecting a 0.51% increase. The stock is above its 10-day and 30-day moving averages, indicating a favorable medium-term trend, although it is approaching overbought territory [1]. Technical Analysis - The stock price is currently supported at HKD 45.1, with a potential drop to HKD 42.4 if this support is broken. The key resistance level is at HKD 50.3, and a breakthrough could lead to testing HKD 53.3 [1]. - The MACD indicator shows a golden cross, while the Bollinger Bands indicate an upward trend. However, the RSI is at 68, nearing the overbought zone, suggesting a possible need for consolidation before testing the resistance at HKD 50.3 [1]. - Investors are optimistic about breaking the resistance at HKD 49, with some targeting HKD 53. The overall technical signals are summarized as "buy" [1]. Derivative Instruments - Recent performance of derivative products linked to SMIC shows significant leverage effects. For instance, a specific warrant from Societe Generale increased by 32% following a 3.08% rise in SMIC's stock price [4]. - Various warrants are available in the market, with Citigroup's warrant offering 5.5x leverage at an exercise price of HKD 52.55, and UBS's warrant providing 4.2x leverage at HKD 52.05 [7]. - Bear certificates are also available, with one from Societe Generale offering 12.4x leverage and a redemption price of HKD 52 [10]. Market Sentiment - The current market sentiment indicates active trading, with a 9.6% five-day volatility suggesting robust market engagement. The mixed signals from momentum oscillators indicate potential short-term fluctuations [1]. - Investors are considering whether to wait for a pullback to support levels or to follow through on potential breakouts, reflecting varying risk appetites in the semiconductor sector [13].

Group 1 - The market has shown a strong upward trend, with the index rising from 19,600 to 25,130 points, indicating a "buy" signal with resistance levels at 25,194 and 25,961 points [1] - HSBC Holdings has reached a significant price point of 100 HKD, with a closing price of 99.7 HKD, and a strong buy signal is indicated with resistance levels at 101 HKD and 106 HKD [3] - BYD's stock price closed at 134.2 HKD, breaking through the upper Bollinger Band, with a buy signal and short-term resistance levels at 140 HKD and 144.8 HKD [5] - Zijin Mining has seen a three-day rise, closing above both daily and weekly chart tops, with a strong buy signal and short-term resistance levels at 23.4 HKD and 24.4 HKD [8] - SMIC has a buy signal with resistance levels at 50.4 HKD and 53.4 HKD, as investors anticipate a breakout above 49 HKD [11] - China Shenhua has also shown a strong upward trend, with a buy signal and resistance levels at 36.1 HKD and 37.9 HKD, suggesting investors should consider closer-to-the-money products [14]

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index is facing resistance at 24,700 points, with a projected P/E ratio of 11 times over the next 12 months [2] - The recent US-China trade talks have led to a temporary reduction in tariffs, but further progress remains uncertain, impacting corporate earnings and capital inflow [2][4] - The Hang Seng Index closed at 23,892 points, down 1.06% year-to-date, while the Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 1.76% [6] Economic Indicators - The US Federal Reserve maintained interest rates, with expectations of two rate cuts totaling 0.5% this year, reflecting cautious optimism about inflation [5][8] - China's June CPI unexpectedly rose by 0.1%, ending four months of deflation, while PPI fell by 3.6%, the largest drop in two years [9] - The National Development and Reform Commission estimates China's economy could reach 140 trillion yuan this year, emphasizing the importance of innovation in economic growth [9] Corporate News - New World Development is reportedly seeking to sell its K11 properties in Hangzhou and Shenzhen, aiming to attract investment from private firms [10] - Longfor Group's debt restructuring plan has been approved by creditors, allowing for adjustments in repayment arrangements [11] - BYD has achieved significant advancements in smart parking technology, promising comprehensive safety coverage for users [10] Sector Focus - Macau's June gaming revenue exceeded expectations, indicating a strong recovery as the summer peak season approaches [7] - The online music sector faces intensified competition, prompting a potential shift of funds towards more visible tech stocks [7] - The global PC shipment volume increased by 6.5% year-on-year in Q2 2025, with Lenovo leading the market share at 24.8% [9]

Core Viewpoint - Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC) shows a strong technical signal for buying, with key support and resistance levels identified for potential trading opportunities [3][4]. Technical Analysis - SMIC's stock price is currently at 44 HKD, showing a slight increase of 0.11%. The stock is above several important moving averages, indicating a bullish trend [3]. - The MACD indicator shows a golden cross, and the Bollinger Bands are expanding, suggesting further upward potential. The RSI is at 58, indicating a neutral to strong position [3]. - Key support levels are identified at 41.9 HKD and 38.5 HKD, while resistance levels are at 46.5 HKD and potentially 50 HKD if the first resistance is broken [4]. Derivative Products Performance - SMIC's derivative products have performed well, with specific warrants showing significant gains. For instance, the Societe Generale bull certificate (62196) and HSBC bull certificate (64024) rose by 14% and 15% respectively over two trading days, while the underlying stock increased by 2.19% [8]. Derivative Products Analysis - Various options for SMIC's warrants are available, with the call option from the issuer (17673) offering a leverage of 2.9 times and an exercise price of 48.05 HKD, making it a stable choice. Another call option (13200) has a slightly lower leverage of 2.7 times but is closer to the current price, appealing to short-term bullish investors [11]. - For put options, the issuer's put option (13733) offers a leverage of 3.1 times with an exercise price of 42.18 HKD, providing a favorable risk-reward ratio for bearish investors. Another put option (14413) has a leverage of 2.7 times and an exercise price of 42.13 HKD, suitable for risk-averse investors [11]. Bull and Bear Certificates - Bull certificates, such as UBS (67702) and Societe Generale (67786), have a redemption price set at 39 HKD, offering around 6.5 times leverage, making them suitable for investors expecting continued upward movement in SMIC's stock [14]. - Bear certificates from HSBC (54296) and Societe Generale (61769) have redemption prices of 49 HKD and 49.5 HKD respectively, providing over 8 times leverage, ideal for short-term bearish strategies [14].

Core Viewpoint - SMIC (00981.HK) is experiencing a significant improvement in its technical performance, driven by a recovery in the semiconductor sector, indicating a healthy upward trend [1] Technical Analysis - The stock price has stabilized above the 10-day moving average (41.84 HKD) and the 30-day moving average (41.48 HKD), approaching the 60-day moving average (43 HKD), reflecting a positive short to medium-term trend [1] - Out of 16 technical indicators, 9 indicate "buy" or "strong buy," with the moving average system summarizing as "strong buy," providing a solid basis for trend-following strategies [1] - The stock price reached 43.85 HKD at 10:22 AM on the reporting day, with a trading volume of 7 billion HKD, indicating significant capital inflow [1] - The RSI is at 67, close to overbought territory, yet market momentum remains strong, suggesting potential for further upward movement [3] - The Bollinger Bands are expanding, with the stock price positioned between the upper and middle bands, indicating potential resistance levels at 48.1 HKD and 50.5 HKD [3] - Key support levels are identified at 38.9 HKD and 42.1 HKD, with 42.1 HKD being a crucial short-term support level due to overlap with multiple moving averages [3] - The Ichimoku Cloud indicates that prices are stable above the cloud, confirming the continuation of the bullish pattern [3] Derivative Products Performance - Following a 6.71% increase in the underlying stock over two trading days, leveraged products linked to SMIC, particularly bull certificates, have shown significant gains, with HSBC's bull certificate (62405) rising by 36% and UBS's bull certificate (63551) increasing by 33% [4] - In contrast, call options have shown more moderate increases, with HSBC's call option (13200) and a call option from another issuer rising by 15% and 18%, respectively [4] Product Characteristics - HSBC's call option (16269) offers a leverage of 4.4 times with an exercise price of 51.93 HKD, suitable for investors optimistic about SMIC's future while aiming to reduce derivative costs [7] - The put option from another issuer (13733) has an exercise price of 42.18 HKD and a leverage of 3.1 times, appealing to cautious bearish investors [7] - The bull certificates, such as those from Societe Generale (60185), have a buyback price of 38.3 HKD and a leverage of 5.7 times, making them attractive for short-term bullish investors [11] Overall Market Sentiment - The overall sentiment indicates that bull certificates, due to their higher leverage and direct tracking of the underlying stock, can amplify returns in a clear upward trend, while call options may provide more stable returns if the underlying stock continues to strengthen [15]

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index (HSI) has seen bearish investors continuously for three days, indicating a potential decline for at least a week, with a recall price of 24,498 for bear certificates [1] - Investors are deploying bull certificates towards the end of trading sessions, betting on the next day's market movements, which reflects a common overnight holding strategy [2] - Technical analysis suggests that the HSI is currently above 24,000, with support at 23,618 and resistance at 24,542, indicating a "buy" signal [2] Group 2 - Hua Hong Semiconductor (01347.HK) has a strong buy signal, with resistance levels at 38.6 and 41.5, while investors are eyeing a potential rise to 44 [4] - WuXi Biologics (02269.HK) is stabilizing at a closing price of 25.65, with neutral technical signals and resistance at 26.8 and 29, while support is at 23.9 [7] - BYD Electronic (00285.HK) shows a buy signal, with a target of 40, but requires breaking through resistance levels at 32.8 and 33.9 [10] Group 3 - Meituan-W (03690.HK) has bearish investors anticipating a drop below 90 before entering the market, with some considering put options [12] - NetEase-S (09999.HK) is on an upward trend, with resistance at 219 and 229, while investors are cautious about the safety of a bear certificate with a recall price of 220 [14]

Core Viewpoint - Huahong Semiconductor (01347.HK) has experienced significant stock price fluctuations, with a notable increase in a short period, attracting market attention. The stock is currently in an overbought state, indicating potential profit-taking and adjustment risks, suggesting a shift in trading strategy from "buying the dip" to "waiting for a pullback" [1][6]. Price Movement and Technical Analysis - As of June 24, the stock closed at HKD 34.05, down 0.44%, but remains at a relatively high level within a short-term upward trend. The stock price has risen to HKD 34.95, reflecting a 2.94% increase [1]. - The stock price is significantly above the 10-day moving average of HKD 31.61, 30-day moving average of HKD 31.35, and 60-day moving average of HKD 32.40, indicating a strong upward trend despite the risk of a correction due to rapid price increases [3]. - The stock has shown a volatility of 14% over the past five trading days, with the RSI at 62, approaching the overbought threshold of 70, suggesting a potential market correction [3][6]. Support and Resistance Levels - The primary resistance level is at HKD 35.8, and if trading volume does not support a breakout, the stock may retreat to support levels of HKD 31.8 or even HKD 30.2 [3][6]. - Recent trading volume exceeded HKD 1.3 billion, indicating high market participation, but a significant decline in volume could lead to increased profit-taking pressure [3]. Investment Products and Strategies - Notable call options linked to Huahong include Societe Generale's product (13221) with a premium of 23.92% and a leverage of 4.4, and another product (13192) with a lower premium of 21.58% and a leverage of 5.2, making them attractive for different trading strategies [7]. - UBS's bull certificate (55261) has a leverage of 4.2 and a low premium, while Societe Generale's bull certificate (55869) offers the highest leverage at 4.1 with a low premium, suitable for bullish investors [8]. Overall Market Sentiment - Despite the strong upward momentum, several technical indicators are signaling potential short-term adjustments, suggesting a cautious approach for traders. It is recommended to wait for a price stabilization around the support level of HKD 31.8 before considering re-entry into the market [6][11].

Group 1: Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index (HSI) closed at 23,689, close to the middle line of the Bollinger Bands at 23,718, indicating a neutral technical signal with support at 23,105 and resistance at 24,000 [2] - Investors are divided, with some holding bullish certificates expecting a rebound above 23,800, while others are buying put options anticipating a drop to 19,000 [1] Group 2: Company Analysis - WuXi Biologics (02269.HK) is experiencing a rebound from a low of 23.1, but the overall trend remains bearish with a sell signal from 10 sell and 4 buy indicators, suggesting a cautious outlook with key levels at 21.9 and 20.6 [4] - China Construction Bank (00939.HK) has stabilized above 7.8, with investors speculating a challenge to the 8.0 mark [7] - SMIC (00981.HK) has shown a rebound for two consecutive days, with a buy signal from 12 buy and 3 sell indicators, needing to break resistance at 41.7 and 43.8 to reach 45 [8] - Li Auto-W (02015.HK) has fallen for 10 days, with a current sell signal from 9 sell and 6 buy indicators, indicating a weak trend with support at 101.5 [11] - Sunny Optical Technology (02382.HK) is fluctuating around 65, with a buy signal from 15 buy and 2 sell indicators, suggesting potential upward movement if it breaks resistance at 66.8 [14]