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11月7日【港股Podcast】恆指、華虹半導體 、中海油 、嗶哩嗶哩、中國移動 、贛鋒鋰業
Ge Long Hui· 2025-11-09 20:29
Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index (HSI) experienced a slight decline, closing at 26,241 points, which is a minor drop of less than 1% after a significant rise the previous day [1][2] - Technical signals indicate a majority "sell" signal, with support around 25,700 points and resistance at approximately 26,700 points, suggesting a potential trading range of about 1,000 points [2] - Investors are advised to choose safer products with recovery prices further from the current levels, such as 25,600 or 25,500 for bullish options, and above 26,700 for bearish options [2] Group 2 - Semiconductor company Hua Hong Semiconductor (01347.HK) showed a slight price drop, closing at 79.45 HKD, with support at around 73 HKD and resistance at 87.5 HKD [6] - Technical signals for Hua Hong indicate a slight majority of "buy" signals, with 8 buy signals compared to 6 sell signals [6][10] - CNOOC (00883.HK) is experiencing an upward trend, closing at 21.18 HKD, with resistance at 21.6 HKD and potential for further gains if it breaks this level [12][16] Group 3 - Bilibili (09626.HK) is showing weak performance, closing at 216 HKD, with potential further declines to 205 HKD if the downward trend continues [18] - China Mobile (00941.HK) is performing well, closing at 87.15 HKD, close to the upper Bollinger Band, with resistance at 88.1 HKD [19][22] - Ganfeng Lithium (01772.HK) closed at 52.7 HKD, near the upper Bollinger Band, with resistance at 55.9 HKD and a prevailing "sell" signal in the market [24][27]
11月6日【港股Podcast】恆指、騰訊控股、中芯國際、匯豐控股、紫金礦業 、比亞迪股份
Ge Long Hui· 2025-11-07 08:17
Group 1: Hang Seng Index (HSI) - The Hang Seng Index (HSI) rose to 26,485 points, showing a significant increase, but trading volume did not see a corresponding rise, which is a point of concern for investors [1][2] - Investors are speculating that the index could reach 26,700 points, as there are concerns about the potential recall of bear certificates in that range [2] - Some investors are betting on a market correction due to the recent gains, purchasing bear certificates close to the recall price, which poses a risk of being recalled easily [3][4] Group 2: Tencent Holdings (00700.HK) - Tencent's stock price increased to 644 HKD, aligning with the overall market trend, but investor sentiment is polarized with some waiting for a drop to 620 HKD [11][12] - The technical signals for Tencent are currently neutral, indicating no clear trend direction, with resistance levels at 661 HKD and 683 HKD for potential upward movement [12] - Investors are advised to choose call options with exercise prices closer to the current market price to mitigate risks associated with distant exercise prices [12] Group 3: SMIC (00981.HK) - SMIC's stock price rose to 76.95 HKD, with increased trading volume indicating positive market sentiment [19] - Investors are considering bull certificates with a recall price of 66 HKD, which offers a safety cushion with support levels at 71.4 HKD and 66.9 HKD [19] Group 4: HSBC Holdings (00005.HK) - HSBC's stock price reached 110 HKD, nearing previous highs, with a notable increase in trading volume [25] - Current technical signals indicate a predominance of sell signals, suggesting a potential for short-term correction after breaking the upper Bollinger Band [25] - Resistance levels are identified at 114.1 HKD and 118.2 HKD, while support levels are at 106.2 HKD and 102 HKD [25] Group 5: Zijin Mining (02899.HK) - Zijin Mining's stock price is at 32.06 HKD, approaching the middle line of the Bollinger Band, with resistance at 33.9 HKD [32] Group 6: BYD Company (01211.HK) - BYD's stock price has rebounded to 97.65 HKD after a period of decline, with a strong buy signal in the short term [34] - The resistance level is at 103.3 HKD, and if broken, the price could rise to 108.3 HKD, while support is at 93.1 HKD [35]
11月5日【港股Podcast】恆指、美團、網易、寧德時代、兗礦能源、蜜雪集團
Ge Long Hui· 2025-11-06 13:21
Group 1: Hang Seng Index - The Hang Seng Index showed a slight increase but with disappointing performance overall, with a trading volume that continued to decrease [1] - Technical signals for the Hang Seng Index are predominantly "buy," with four buy signals and fewer sell signals, indicating a slight bullish sentiment in the short term [1] - Support levels are estimated around 25326 points, close to the mentioned 25400 points, while resistance is around 26400 points [1] Group 2: Meituan-W (03690.HK) - Meituan's closing price is 101.2 HKD, having returned above 100 HKD, but the stock has been relatively stable with a significant decline from previous highs of around 186 HKD [3] - The potential support level is around 97.1 HKD, and if it falls below 97 HKD, it could drop to 92 HKD or even 88 HKD based on Bollinger Bands calculations [3] Group 3: NetEase-S (09999.HK) - NetEase closed at 217.4 HKD, having reached a high of 248 HKD, and is currently holding above the middle line of the Bollinger Bands [4] - The resistance level is calculated at 227 HKD, and if this is surpassed, it could rise to 237 HKD, indicating a potential upward movement of about 10 HKD [4] Group 4: Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. (03750.HK) - The stock price of Contemporary Amperex is currently at 547.5 HKD, fluctuating within a narrow range of 530-580 HKD [5] - Technical signals are neutral, suggesting a lack of clear direction, and investors are advised to wait for clearer trends before making decisions [5] Group 5: Yancoal Energy (01171.HK) - Yancoal Energy's closing price is 11.38 HKD, with a resistance level at 11.8 HKD, and if this is broken, it could rise to 12.2 HKD [7] - There is a possibility of the stock dropping back to around 10 HKD, with a support level at 10.08 HKD [7] Group 6: Mixue Group (02097.HK) - Mixue Group's closing price is 400.6 HKD, with a resistance level at 428 HKD, indicating potential for a rise above 420 HKD [8] - The technical signals are predominantly "buy," with 11 buy signals compared to 4 sell signals, suggesting a favorable outlook [8]
11月3日【輪證短評】小鵬汽車、金沙中國、港交所、工商銀行
Ge Long Hui· 2025-11-04 20:31
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article discusses the performance and investment opportunities related to various stocks, particularly focusing on options and warrants associated with these stocks [3][4][10] - The first stock analyzed is XPeng Motors (09868), which has shown a price increase, closing at 92 HKD, with potential resistance levels at 95.1 HKD and 99.7 HKD [3][4] - The article highlights four warrant products with exercise prices between 60 HKD and 61 HKD, noting their leverage ratios ranging from 3.3x to 3.5x, making them suitable for investors [4][5] Group 2 - The second stock discussed is Sands China (01928), which experienced a decline, closing at 19.95 HKD, but with increased trading volume, prompting interest in call options [10][11] - There is limited choice for January expiration products, leading to a recommendation for looking at April expiration products, which offer various types of options with leverage around 4x [11][12] - The article emphasizes the importance of comparing product terms, as even slight differences in leverage and implied volatility can significantly impact investment decisions [12][13] Group 3 - The third stock is Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (00388), which saw a price increase to 428.8 HKD, with a suggested support level at 417 HKD [16][17] - The article recommends selecting bull certificates with a redemption price below 412 HKD for safety, as they are less likely to be triggered compared to those closer to the current price [17][18] - It notes that the premium differences among these products can be significant, urging investors to carefully evaluate product terms [18] Group 4 - The fourth stock analyzed is Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (01398), which has shown a price increase to 6.17 HKD, with a resistance level at 6.2 HKD [21][22] - There are three put options available for January expiration, all being out-of-the-money, with exercise prices around 5.22 HKD [22][23] - The article stresses that while there are options available, none have a clear advantage, and investors should consider the bid-ask spread and the ability of these put options to respond to declines in the underlying stock [23]
11月3日【港股Podcast】恆指、小米集團、中海油、蔚來、快手、港交所
Ge Long Hui· 2025-11-04 19:51
Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index (HSI) closed at 26,158 points, near the middle line of the Bollinger Bands at 26,163 points, indicating a potential for slight upward movement if trading volume increases [1][2] - Investors are divided, with bullish investors targeting levels between 26,300 and 26,500, while bearish investors see strong resistance at 26,200, predicting a potential drop of 300 points [1][2] - Current resistance is estimated at around 26,600 points, with a possibility of reaching 26,679 points if the index breaks through this level [2] Group 2 - Xiaomi's stock price rose slightly to 44.72 HKD, with a first resistance level at 48.1 HKD, and a potential upward movement towards 53.8 HKD if this level is breached [9][10] - Technical signals for Xiaomi show 11 buy signals and 6 sell signals, indicating a slightly positive short-term outlook [9][10] - The support level for Xiaomi is around 42.6 HKD, and if it falls below this, it could drop to 40 HKD [9][10] Group 3 - CNOOC's stock price closed at 20.46 HKD, close to the upper Bollinger Band, with a support level at 19.7 HKD [14] - If CNOOC's stock price drops below 19.7 HKD, it may further decline to 19.2 HKD [14] Group 4 - NIO's stock price increased to 56.9 HKD, with a resistance level at 59.9 HKD, and a potential rise to 63.2 HKD if this level is surpassed [18] - Investors are advised to choose options with a strike price about 10% out of the money and longer expiration dates for better safety [18] Group 5 - Kuaishou's stock price closed at 73.45 HKD, with a resistance level at 78.2 HKD, and a potential rise to 85.7 HKD if this level is broken [25][26] - Technical signals indicate 10 buy signals and 5 sell signals, suggesting a slightly positive short-term outlook [25][26] Group 6 - Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (HKEX) closed at 428.8 HKD, with a resistance level at 439 HKD, and a potential rise to 449 HKD if this level is breached [32] - Technical signals show 9 buy signals and 5 sell signals, indicating a slight preference for buying [32]
10月28日【港股Podcast】恆指、匯豐、中芯、友邦、紫金礦業、騰訊
Ge Long Hui· 2025-10-29 03:31
Group 1: Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index has shown a slight decline of 0.33%, closing at 26,346 points, with market sentiment remaining cautious [1] - Support levels are identified at approximately 25,700 points, with potential further declines below 26,000 points [1] - Technical signals indicate a predominance of "sell" signals, with 10 sell signals compared to only 6 buy signals [1] Group 2: HSBC Holdings (00005.HK) - HSBC Holdings has experienced a notable increase in stock price, with significant trading volume, indicating positive investor sentiment [5] - The resistance level is at 109.7 HKD, and if surpassed, the stock could rise to 110 HKD or even 113.8 HKD [5] - Support levels are identified at 101.8 HKD and 97.6 HKD, with a recommendation for investors to consider products with a redemption price below 95 HKD for safety [5] Group 3: Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (00981.HK) - The stock price has slightly decreased but remains above the Bollinger Bands middle line, closing at 80.1 HKD [10] - The support level is at 74.5 HKD, indicating a risk of further declines below the current price [10] - Technical signals are predominantly "sell," suggesting potential for further downward movement [10] Group 4: AIA Group Limited (01299.HK) - AIA has shown strong upward movement, with significant increases in stock price and trading volume [16] - The resistance level is at 76.2 HKD, and if broken, the stock could rise to 78.4 HKD [16] - The stock is approaching the upper limit of the Bollinger Bands, indicating a potential peak [16] Group 5: Zijin Mining Group (02899.HK) - Zijin Mining's stock price has decreased, closing at 31.08 HKD, nearing the lower limit of the Bollinger Bands [21] - The support level is at 29.8 HKD, with potential further declines to 26.8 HKD if this level is breached [21] - Current technical signals are neutral, indicating a lack of clear direction for investors [21] Group 6: Tencent Holdings (00700.HK) - Tencent's stock price has declined, closing at 646.6 HKD, while maintaining position above the Bollinger Bands middle line [26] - The support level is at 625 HKD, with potential further declines to 596 HKD if this level is broken [26] - Technical signals are predominantly "sell," with 10 sell signals compared to 5 buy signals, indicating a weak short-term outlook [26]
10月24日【窩輪短評】中芯國際、蔚來汽車、思摩爾國際、阿里巴巴
Ge Long Hui· 2025-10-25 20:21
Group 1: Company Analysis - Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC) is currently trading at 80 HKD, positioned above the middle band of the Bollinger Bands, indicating a relatively positive performance [2] - Investors have shown interest in a specific bull certificate with a redemption price around 71.5 HKD, which is considered reasonable given the current support level of 72.6 HKD [2][3] - The street liquidity for this product has reached 100%, meaning all shares are held by investors, which limits the issuer's ability to maintain price control [3][4] Group 2: Product Selection - It is advisable to avoid high street liquidity products as they can lead to price volatility and difficulty in pricing by the issuer [4][5] - For SMIC, there are no near-term products available, but options expiring in June or July next year are more plentiful, with actual leverage ranging from 2.7x to 3.3x [5] - The implied volatility for these products varies significantly, with some at 57.1% and others as high as 65.2%, indicating a need for careful comparison of product terms [5] Group 3: NIO Inc. Analysis - NIO's stock price has shown mixed market sentiment, with some investors optimistic about a rebound while others foresee a continued downtrend [10][11] - There are currently seven put options available for NIO, all of which are out-of-the-money, with strike prices ranging from 27.66 HKD to 47.08 HKD [10][11] - The actual leverage for put options in the 40-47 HKD range is not attractive, suggesting investors may need to wait for new products to be introduced [11] Group 4: Product Comparison for NIO - There are some call options expiring between February and March next year with strike prices around 60-61 HKD, which align well with NIO's resistance level of 57.4 HKD [12] - Among these call options, some offer actual leverage up to 3.6x, with implied volatility around 80.5% [12] Group 5: Smoore International Analysis - Smoore International's stock has declined significantly, with a recent low of 13.78 HKD, but some investors believe it may be at a level worth monitoring for potential recovery [16][17] - The current short-term support level is at 13.4 HKD, and if it breaks this level, it may drop to 12 HKD, which is seen as a critical price point [16][17] Group 6: Product Availability for Smoore - There are limited options for call certificates, with most having strike prices significantly above the current market price, making them less attractive [17] - The ideal strike price for new products would be closer to 17-18 HKD, but current offerings are mostly above 20 HKD [17] Group 7: Alibaba Group Analysis - Alibaba's stock is currently facing resistance at the middle band of the Bollinger Bands, closing at 168.3 HKD, with a need to break through 177.4 HKD to reach higher levels [20][21] - There are numerous product options available for Alibaba, particularly those with strike prices around 180-182 HKD, offering actual leverage of approximately 4.9x [21][22] - Investors are encouraged to compare products carefully, as there are significant differences in implied volatility and premium among similar products [22][23]
10月23日【港股Podcast】恆指、京東、藥明生物、百度、中國聯通、李寧
Ge Long Hui· 2025-10-24 05:09
Group 1: Hang Seng Index (HSI) Analysis - The Hang Seng Index (HSI) experienced a slight increase of 0.72%, closing at 25,967 points, just below the 26,000 mark [1] - Market sentiment is mixed, with both bullish and bearish perspectives present, which is a normal market phenomenon [1] - Technical signals indicate a predominance of "sell" signals, with 8 sell signals compared to 6 buy signals, suggesting a cautious outlook [1] - The support level for HSI is around 25,400 points; if it falls below this, it may drop further to 24,600 points [2] - The resistance level is approximately 26,500 points, and investors are advised to consider bear certificates with a redemption price around 26,400 points [2] Group 2: JD Group (09618) Analysis - JD Group's stock closed at 128.7 yuan, with a support level at 124.3 yuan; a drop below this could lead to further declines to 117.7 yuan [9] - Some investors anticipate a rise to around 130 yuan before considering bearish positions, aligning with the current technical signals that favor buying [10] - The short-term resistance level for JD is approximately 135 yuan, indicating potential upward movement before any bearish actions [10] Group 3: WuXi Biologics (02269) Analysis - WuXi Biologics' stock has shown a slight decline with increased trading volume, indicating a potential buying opportunity [15] - The current support level is around 33.8 yuan; if this level is breached, the stock may drop to 30 yuan [15] - Despite the bearish sentiment, short-term technical signals are predominantly "buy," suggesting a favorable buying atmosphere [15] Group 4: Baidu Group (09888) Analysis - Baidu's stock is in a stable consolidation phase, with a support level at 111.3 yuan; a drop below this could lead to further declines to 98.4 yuan [21] - The short-term technical signals favor buying, with 10 buy signals against 5 sell signals, indicating potential for upward movement [21] - Investors are advised to consider bull certificates with a redemption price around 80 yuan for added safety [21] Group 5: China Unicom (00762) Analysis - China Unicom's stock closed at 9.39 yuan, near the upper limit of the Bollinger Bands, with a resistance level at 9.67 yuan [27] - A breakthrough of the 9.67 yuan resistance could lead to further increases towards 9.85 yuan, but reaching 10 yuan may take time [27] - The short-term technical signals are neutral, indicating no clear direction for price movement [27] Group 6: Li Ning (02331) Analysis - Li Ning's stock has shown strong performance, with a resistance level at 19.6 yuan; breaking this could lead to further increases towards 19.8 yuan [33] - The current technical signals are neutral, suggesting a lack of clear upward or downward momentum [33] - Investors are encouraged to monitor market trends and consider various sources of information for informed decision-making [33]
10月22日【輪證短評】東方航空、石藥集團、紫金礦業、騰訊
Ge Long Hui· 2025-10-23 08:08
Group 1: Eastern Airlines (00670) - Eastern Airlines has shown a strong upward trend, with the stock price increasing for six consecutive days and trading near the upper Bollinger Band [2][3] - The trading volume has significantly increased over the past six days, indicating strong investor interest [2] - Currently, there are limited options for call warrants related to Eastern Airlines, with no suitable products available in the market [2][3] - Technical signals suggest a "sell" strategy for short-term operations, despite the recent price increase [3] Group 2: CSPC Pharmaceutical Group (01093) - CSPC Pharmaceutical has experienced a noticeable decline, with the stock price dropping to around 8.46 HKD, having previously attempted to reach the middle line of the Bollinger Band [5] - The stock may potentially drop to around 8 HKD, with a support level estimated at approximately 8.1 HKD [5] - There are limited put warrant options available, with only two products having a distant exercise price of 6.5 HKD, which is not advisable for investors expecting further declines [6] Group 3: Zijin Mining (02899) - Zijin Mining's stock price has also seen a significant drop, closing at 31.8 HKD, approaching the lower Bollinger Band [8] - Investors are currently adopting a wait-and-see approach, with a target entry point around 30 HKD, close to the support level of 29.3 HKD [8] - There are available call warrants with exercise prices around 28 HKD, 29 HKD, and 30 HKD, but caution is advised regarding products with short expiration dates [9] Group 4: Tencent (0700) - Tencent offers a wide range of derivative products, including call and put warrants, providing ample options for investors [13][14] - Investors holding call warrants with an exercise price of around 800 HKD should be cautious, as this represents a significant out-of-the-money position, approximately 29% to 30% away from the current stock price [14] - It is recommended to select products with an out-of-the-money margin of around 10% or less to mitigate risks associated with time decay and price movement [15][16]
10月22日【港股Podcast】恆指、中鋁、騰訊、中芯、中石油、吉利
Ge Long Hui· 2025-10-23 08:08
Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index (HSI) has shown a downward trend, closing around 25,700 points, which is a common level recently. The index had previously risen to 26,000 points, creating some investor expectations before the decline [2][3] - Investor sentiment is mixed, with some adopting a bearish outlook due to declining trading volumes, while others are speculating on short-term rebounds by purchasing bull certificates [2][3] Technical Signals - Current technical signals indicate a slight "sell" bias, with 8 sell signals and 6 buy signals, suggesting a bearish sentiment overall. The support level is approximately 25,300 points, with potential further declines to this level being noted [3][4] - For bullish investors, the short-term resistance level is around 26,400 points, which is crucial for monitoring potential upward movements [4] Individual Stock Analysis China Aluminum (02600) - China Aluminum's stock price has shown slight recovery, with expectations of upward movement following a period of consolidation. The resistance level is identified at 8.79 HKD, with a potential next target of 9.08 HKD if the first level is breached. However, the overall technical signals remain bearish with 8 sell signals and 5 buy signals [10] Tencent Holdings (00700) - Tencent's stock price has declined to 623.5 HKD, with a critical support level at 607 HKD. If this level is breached, the next support could be around 573 HKD. The technical signals are mixed, with 7 sell signals, 6 buy signals, and 8 neutral signals, indicating uncertainty in the stock's direction [17][18] SMIC (00981) - SMIC's stock price remains stable, with a support level around 68.7 HKD. Investors are considering adding to their positions if the price stabilizes around 74-75 HKD. The technical signals are neutral, suggesting no clear direction at this time [24] China Petroleum (00857) - China Petroleum's stock has been performing well, reaching a recent high of 7.92 HKD, with a closing price of 7.89 HKD. The primary resistance level is at 8 HKD, and the stock is currently showing a predominance of sell signals, with 9 sell signals and 5 buy signals [30] Geely Automobile (00175) - Geely's stock price has shown a slight decline, with a support level at 18.9 HKD. The technical signals are predominantly bearish, with 9 sell signals and 4 buy signals, indicating that investors may need to wait for a more favorable entry point [38]