Group 1 - The market style has entered a period of fluctuation, with diminishing marginal positive factors impacting the market [1] - Focus is shifting towards industry trends that are more certain and less affected by external disturbances [1] - The second half of the year typically sees a concentrated technology release cycle in the domestic technology sector, with increasing certainty in areas such as AI computing power, AI applications, medical exports, military, and solid-state batteries [1] Group 2 - The analysis combines market environment, catalytic factors, and comprehensive quantitative indicators to make investment recommendations [1]

证券研究报告 ·北交所报告 · 北交所定期报告 北交所定期报告 20250803 北证 50 指数周内回调,关注中报高增与产业 催化共振标的 北交所市场表现 行业重要新闻 ■ 国家发展改革委:统筹资金下达与市场改革,推动经济高质量发展。国 家发展改革委在 2025年8月1日的新闻发布会中宣布,今年 8000 亿元 "两重"建设资金及 7350亿元中央预算内投资已全部下达,第四批 690 亿元"两新"资金将于 10月完成全年 3000亿元计划,后续将强化资金 > 乐吴让芬 2025年08月03日 证券分析师 朱洁羽 执业证书:S0600520090004 zhujieyu@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 易申申 执业证书:S0600522100003 yishsh@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 余慧勇 执业证书:S0600524080003 yuhy@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 薛路喜 执业证书:S0600525070008 xuelx(@dwzq.com.cn 研究助理 武阿兰 执业证书:S0600124070018 wual@dwzq.com.cn 监管与风险防范。 ■ 美联储:维持利率不 ...

Group 1: Core Insights - The report highlights the continuous growth in the PCB and AI server sectors, indicating a strong demand for computing hardware [8] - The solid-state battery production timeline has been accelerated, with several companies announcing their plans for mass production [8] - A new childcare subsidy plan has been introduced, providing 3,600 yuan per child annually for children under three years old, which may benefit related companies [8] Group 2: Industry Dynamics - The report notes that the PCB industry is experiencing high growth alongside AI server demand, with specific companies like Shenghong Technology and Shenzhen South Circuit being mentioned as key players [8] - The solid-state battery sector is entering a rapid industrialization phase, with companies such as Liyuanheng and Haishun New Materials highlighted for their involvement [8] - The introduction of the national childcare subsidy is expected to positively impact companies like Kidswant and Aiyingshi, which are focused on childcare services [8] Group 3: Company Focus - Xuefeng Technology plans to acquire a 51% stake in Shengshi Putian for 154 million yuan through a private agreement [10] - Xiangdian Co. intends to purchase a 12.5% stake in Tongda Electromagnetic Energy for 208 million yuan from its controlling shareholder [10] - Fuwei Co. has received notices for seat product development from well-known joint venture and domestic brands [10] - Sinochem Equipment is set to issue shares to acquire 100% stakes in two companies from China National Chemical Equipment and Beijing Bluestar Energy Investment [10] Group 4: Market Review and Outlook - On July 29, the total trading volume in the two markets reached 1.8032 trillion yuan, with 2,142 stocks rising and 2,840 stocks falling [12] - The Shanghai Composite Index opened flat and then rose, with all three major indices closing with small gains, while the ChiNext and STAR Market indices continued to reach new highs [12] - The report indicates a potential upward breakout for the Shanghai Composite Index, approaching the July 23 high of 3,613 points, with a generally optimistic short-term outlook [12]

Group 1: Market Overview - US stock market showed slight fluctuations with Dow Jones down 0.14%, Nasdaq up 0.33%, and S&P 500 up 0.02% [1] - Notable stock movements include Tesla up 3.02%, Nvidia up 1.88%, and Microsoft down 0.24% [1] Group 2: Domestic Major Events - China and Thailand agreed to an unconditional ceasefire [2] Group 3: Securities Strategy - Everbright Securities anticipates short-term market fluctuations as funds await significant events, with a trend towards technology stocks emerging [4] Group 4: Industry Highlights 1. **Automotive Components**: CATL's subsidiary, Times Intelligent, has initiated a financing round of 2 billion yuan, indicating a push into chassis business with a post-investment valuation exceeding 10 billion yuan. The integrated intelligent chassis is crucial for advanced autonomous driving [5] 2. **Fertility Optimization**: The implementation of a nationwide childcare subsidy starting January 1, 2025, will provide 3,600 yuan per child annually for children under three years old, potentially boosting demand in maternal and infant products [6] 3. **Solid-State Batteries**: Companies like Honeycomb Energy and Changan Automobile are advancing solid-state battery production, with Honeycomb set to trial its first generation of semi-solid batteries by Q4 2025 [7][9] 4. **Semiconductors**: Samsung Electronics signed a $16.5 billion semiconductor supply contract with Tesla, indicating a recovery in Samsung's foundry business [10] Group 5: Company Announcements - Huhua Co. plans to raise up to 586 million yuan for automation and modernization projects [13] - WuXi AppTec expects a net profit of 8.561 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a 101.92% increase year-on-year [13] - JuCheng Co. reported a net profit of 205 million yuan for the first half of 2025, a 43.5% increase year-on-year [13] Group 6: New Stock Offerings - Youli Intelligent is offering shares at 23.99 yuan each, focusing on photovoltaic support structures [11]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the rapid development and commercialization of sulfide all-solid-state battery technology, with significant advancements expected by 2030 [1][2][8] - The energy density of sulfide all-solid-state batteries is projected to increase from 350 Wh/kg in 2025 to 500 Wh/kg by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate of 7.4%, surpassing the progress of liquid lithium batteries [1] - The commercialization timeline has been accelerated, with large-scale production expected in 2026, one year earlier than initially planned, indicating unexpected technological breakthroughs [2] Group 2 - The article discusses the convergence of technology routes between China and Japan, noting that while China is expected to file three times more patents than Japan in 2024, Japan still holds 40% of global foundational patents, highlighting intense competition in the industry [3] - Policy support is evident, with China setting a target for 2027 for vehicle installations, and many companies advancing their timelines by six months [4] - The restructuring of the supply chain is crucial, as local production of lithium sulfide can reduce dependence on high-cost materials from Japan and South Korea, aiming to lower electrolyte costs to $100/kg [5] Group 3 - The article outlines the advancements in sulfide electrolyte materials, including breakthroughs in ionic conductivity and stability, which are essential for high-performance batteries [9] - The development of low-cost synthesis processes has reduced energy consumption by 60% compared to traditional methods, with material costs decreasing by 40% since 2023 [9] - Challenges in interface stability and large-scale manufacturing are addressed, with innovative techniques such as atomic layer deposition improving battery performance [10][11] Group 4 - The article highlights the importance of thermal management and safety enhancements, including mechanisms to prevent thermal runaway and the development of advanced thermal conductive materials [12][13] - A failure warning system has been integrated, capable of providing early alerts for thermal runaway, which has been certified through rigorous testing [14] Group 5 - The event, "2025 International Summit and Exhibition on Sulfide All-Solid-State Batteries," is scheduled for November 6-8, 2025, in Guangzhou, aiming to gather industry leaders and stakeholders [15] - The summit will feature discussions on key technological advancements, commercialization challenges, and the establishment of industry standards [17][18] - Various companies involved in solid-state battery technology and materials are expected to participate, showcasing innovations and fostering collaboration within the industry [19][20]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint highlights the increasing attention on silicon material "stockpiling," with the market considering a price of 60,000 yuan/ton as reasonable based on supply-demand matching assumptions [3] - The convertible bond price of JA Solar has been adjusted down to a lower level of 11.66 yuan, enhancing its value and leading to a price increase, with expectations of more solar companies following suit [3] - The performance of stocks related to "anti-involution" themes will be determined by policy support for prices, the feasibility of "stockpiling" plans, and the downstream power station's acceptance of prices [3] Group 2 - The Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project is set to officially commence on July 19, 2025, with a total investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan, indicating high short-term investment enthusiasm for turbine projects [4] - The GIL (Gas Insulated Transmission Line) segment is highlighted as a key area of focus, with its investment scale comparable to that of turbines, especially following the successful operation of the world's first 550 kV C4 environmentally friendly GIL [4] Group 3 - Wind power is expected to benefit from "anti-involution" policies, with significant performance elasticity anticipated in the wind turbine assembly sector, driven by larger units and cost reductions in components [4] - The 136 document is reshaping the logic of new energy installations, with expectations of a recovery in wind power development and power station sales due to favorable output curves [4] Group 4 - Solid-state batteries are viewed positively for future trends, with recent weak performance attributed to prior high gains; focus is on all-solid-state battery equipment and advancements in semi-solid batteries [4] - The short-term introduction of pricing policies for large-scale electrochemical storage in Gansu is expected to improve independent storage IRR, with other provinces likely to follow suit [5] - The current high demand for domestic storage bidding is driven by consumption pressure and improved business models, while overseas storage remains robust [5]

Macro News - The State Council, led by Premier Li Qiang, has initiated measures to gradually implement free preschool education, emphasizing the need for local governments to refine work plans and ensure timely funding allocation [4] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) is soliciting public opinions on the revised Corporate Governance Code, which aims to enhance the supervision of directors and senior management, and improve incentive and restraint mechanisms [5][6] - The Ministry of Finance reported that in the first half of 2025, the national general public budget expenditure reached 14,127.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.4%, while revenue decreased by 0.3% to 11,556.6 billion yuan [6] - The National Bureau of Statistics indicated that in June, the profit decline of industrial enterprises above designated size narrowed compared to May, with rapid profit growth in new momentum industries like equipment manufacturing [6] Industry News - The Insurance Association announced that the current standard interest rate for ordinary life insurance products is 1.99%, leading major life insurance companies to adjust their rates downwards [9] - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, along with ten other departments, released a plan to promote agricultural product consumption, focusing on optimizing supply, innovating circulation, and activating market demand [9] - The China Pesticide Industry Association has launched a three-year campaign to address issues like hidden additives and illegal production in the pesticide industry, aiming to curb disorderly competition [9] - The Chinese government has proposed the establishment of a World Artificial Intelligence Cooperation Organization, with Shanghai as a potential headquarters [10] - The Shanghai land auction set a new record for residential land prices, with a floor price of 200,257 yuan per square meter [11] Company News - China Duty Free Group reported a total revenue of 28.151 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decline of 9.96%, with net profit down 20.81% to 2.6 billion yuan [14] - Huayou Cobalt announced plans to acquire a 49% stake in Wuhan Junheng Technology through a combination of stock issuance and cash payment, marking a significant asset restructuring [14] - Several companies, including *ST Muban and Taiyuan Heavy Industry, received notices from the CSRC regarding investigations into alleged financial misconduct and information disclosure violations [16][17] - Shijiazhuang Railway announced a cooperation agreement with the Guangzhou Municipal Government for the Guangzhou East Station renovation project, with a total investment of approximately 16.66 billion yuan [12]

Key Insights - The report highlights the importance of high-quality urban renewal and the need for a new model of real estate development as emphasized by national leaders [3][4] - It notes a significant increase in broad fiscal spending intensity, with public budget expenditures reaching 28,318 billion yuan in June, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 0.4% [8][10] - The report discusses the ongoing transformation in the banking sector regarding interest rate risks and the expected upward trend in bond market yields due to increased volatility in funding rates [29][51] Macro Economic Analysis - The focus on urban renewal and domestic circulation is expected to enhance economic growth, with policies aimed at boosting consumption and diversifying supply [3][4] - The government is pushing for a balanced housing system through the newly released housing rental regulations [4] - The report indicates that the fiscal revenue growth rate has slowed, with a marginal improvement in tax revenue, while non-tax revenue continues to decline [10][11] Industry Insights - The AI application sector is highlighted as a growth area, with companies like Tuolisi and Songlin Technology positioned to benefit from advancements in AI and robotics [40][41] - The dietary supplement industry is projected to grow significantly, driven by increasing health awareness and an aging population, with global sales expected to reach 223 billion dollars by 2026 [42][43] - The report identifies opportunities in the liquor sector, particularly low-valuation white liquor stocks, as they are seen as defensive assets amid economic uncertainties [45][46] Financial Sector Overview - The report notes a significant increase in trading volume, with daily transactions surpassing 20 trillion yuan, indicating a recovery in market activity [49][50] - The insurance sector is experiencing a reduction in preset interest rates, which is expected to lower liability costs and support the transition of traditional insurance products [51][52] Energy and New Materials - The solid-state battery industry is making progress with breakthroughs in materials and acceleration in pilot production, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [54]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the power equipment industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The solid-state battery sector is transitioning from laboratory to mass production validation, with small batch vehicle trials expected by the end of 2025 and widespread trials anticipated in 2026-2027. Emerging applications in low-altitude, robotics, and AI are expected to accelerate market opportunities for solid-state batteries [25][28] - The solid-state battery index increased by 3.5% from July 21 to July 25, 2025, with a cumulative increase of 25.5% for the year. The average increase for related stocks was 2.8% during the same period [4][11] - Key companies in the solid-state battery sector include CATL, Naconor, Honggong Technology, and others, with specific recommendations for investment in these companies [25][28] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Sector Review - The solid-state battery index rose by 3.5%, with transaction volume increasing by 41.4% compared to the previous week. Equipment and conductive agent sectors led the gains [11][14] - The top five gainers included Naconor (+19.2%), Xingyun Co. (+16.9%), Delong Laser (+16.3%), Guansheng Co. (+15.6%), and Funeng Technology (+13.1%) [17][22] 2. Industry Dynamics - Qingyan Nako delivered the first domestic high-speed wide-width dry electrode equipment, which features solvent-free, low-energy consumption, and high-efficiency capabilities [29] - QuantumScape expanded its strategic partnership with Volkswagen's PowerCo to accelerate the development of its QSE-5 battery pilot production line, with potential funding of up to $131 million [28] 3. Individual Company Updates - Funeng Technology reported achieving GWh-level shipments of its semi-solid-state batteries, with costs only 5%-10% higher than liquid batteries, indicating strong market competitiveness [33][26] - Hanhua Energy plans to begin trial production of its first generation of 140Ah semi-solid-state batteries in Q4 2025, targeting supply for the next generation of BMW MINI models [37][26] - Qingyan Nako's high-speed wide-width dry electrode equipment has a width of 800mm and a maximum speed of 50m/min, supporting precise control of key parameters [29][24]

Market Overview - The market continues to operate in an upward trend, with the core observation variable being whether the market's profit-making effect can be sustained. As long as the profit-making effect is positive, incremental capital is expected to continue entering the market. Currently, the WIND All A trend line is around 5400 points, with a profit-making effect value of 4.09%, which is significantly positive. Even in the face of short-term fluctuations, it is recommended to hold patiently or increase positions on dips [1][3][8]. Performance Metrics - The Davis Double strategy has an excess benchmark of -0.44% this week, with a cumulative absolute return of 26.78% for the year. The CSI 300 Enhanced strategy has an excess benchmark of 0.31% this week, with a cumulative excess return of 16.82% for the year. The net profit gap strategy has an excess benchmark of -1.68% this week, with a cumulative absolute return of 35.72% for the year [1][9][13]. Sector Recommendations - In terms of industry allocation, the mid-term perspective continues to recommend sectors that are experiencing a turnaround, including Hong Kong innovative drugs, Hong Kong securities, and Hang Seng consumption. The upward trend remains intact. The TWO BETA model continues to recommend the technology sector, focusing on military industry, AI applications, and solid-state batteries. Overall, in the upward trend, attention should be paid to high-elasticity sectors such as brokerages and technology [2][3][8]. Valuation Indicators - The overall PE of the WIND All A index is around the 70th percentile, indicating a medium level, while the PB is around the 30th percentile, indicating a relatively low level. Based on short-term trend assessments, the absolute return products with WIND All A as the stock allocation subject are recommended to have an 80% position [4][6]. Market Dynamics - The timing system signals show that the distance between the 20-day and 120-day moving averages continues to expand, with the latest data showing the 20-day line at 5437 and the 120-day line at 5168 points. The difference between the two lines has increased from 4.04% last week to 5.21%, with an absolute value significantly greater than 3%. The market continues to operate in an upward trend [3][8].