Economic Developments - Significant progress has been made in high-level economic talks between the US and China, with both sides reaching important consensus [1][3] - The US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent expressed satisfaction with the productive nature of the negotiations, indicating that a detailed briefing would follow [3] - The US Trade Representative emphasized the constructive nature of the discussions, highlighting the need to address the substantial trade deficit [3] Market Reactions - Following the news of the trade talks, US stock futures surged, with the Dow Jones rising by 1%, S&P 500 by 1.2%, and Nasdaq by 1.5% [1] - The offshore Chinese yuan experienced a significant increase, rising nearly 200 points, while Asian markets opened positively across the board [1] Gold Market Dynamics - International gold prices opened lower, with a decline exceeding 1%, and prices dropping to below $3,260 per ounce [4] - COMEX gold futures also faced pressure, opening nearly 2% lower at $3,283.7 per ounce [5] - Domestic gold jewelry prices followed suit, with notable decreases in prices for major brands [6] Future Gold Price Predictions - Analysts predict short-term volatility in gold prices, but a long-term upward trend is expected, with Goldman Sachs forecasting prices to reach $3,700 per ounce by the end of 2025 and $4,000 by mid-2026 [9] - China's gold reserves have increased for six consecutive months, with a total of 7.377 million ounces reported at the end of April, reflecting a growing trend in central bank gold purchases globally [10] Regulatory Actions - Several banks have issued warnings against using credit cards for gold trading, citing risks associated with market volatility and regulatory compliance [12][13] - The banks emphasize that credit card funds should only be used for daily consumption and not for investment purposes, including gold [12][13]

Core Viewpoint - The international gold price has experienced significant volatility since April 3, reaching historical highs before dropping below $3,000, influenced by geopolitical factors and market sentiment [1][2]. Group 1: Gold Price Fluctuations - On April 3, the London gold price peaked at $3,167.74 per ounce, while COMEX gold surpassed $3,200, marking historical highs [1]. - By April 7, both London gold and COMEX gold fell below the $3,000 mark for the first time since March 21, with COMEX gold closing at $2,998.8 per ounce after a brief recovery [1]. - The price of gold jewelry from brands like Chow Tai Fook dropped to 918 yuan per gram, a decrease of 14 yuan from the previous day and 44 yuan from the peak on April 3 [1]. Group 2: Impact of Tariff Policies - The U.S. "reciprocal tariff" policy is viewed as a key factor behind the decline in gold and other asset prices, signaling an escalation in international trade tensions [2]. - The implementation of these tariffs has led to increased market uncertainty, affecting investor sentiment and risk appetite [2]. - Historical trends indicate that during early stages of liquidity risk, gold prices may decline alongside risk assets due to investor behavior and liquidity needs [2]. Group 3: Silver Price Sensitivity - Silver prices have shown even greater volatility than gold, with COMEX silver dropping nearly 15% and London silver over 12% from April 3 to April 4 [3]. - The industrial applications of silver, alongside its safe-haven attributes, make it more susceptible to market fluctuations, especially in light of potential impacts from tariff policies on global trade and industrial output [3]. - The silver market is characterized by higher speculation, making it more reactive to significant events or policy changes compared to the gold market [3].

Core Viewpoint - The recent announcement by the U.S. government to impose a 10% minimum tariff on trade partners has led to increased uncertainty in the market, driving gold prices to new highs as investors seek safe-haven assets [1][3][8]. Group 1: Tariff Announcement and Market Reaction - On April 2, U.S. President Trump signed two executive orders establishing a 10% "minimum benchmark tariff" on trade partners, effective from April 5, with higher tariffs for countries with the largest trade deficits with the U.S. starting April 9 [1][3]. - Following the tariff announcement, gold prices surged, with COMEX gold futures reaching a peak of $3,201.6 per ounce on April 2, and remaining around $3,170 per ounce by April 3 [2][4]. Group 2: Gold Price Trends - Gold prices have shown a strong upward trend since the beginning of the year, breaking through significant price levels: $2,700 in mid-January, $2,800 in late January, and $3,000 in mid-March, with continuous increases leading to the recent highs [6][7]. - The current bull market for gold began in 2018, with prices rising from a low of $1,167.1 per ounce, and significant milestones reached in 2019 and 2020, with prices surpassing $1,500 and $2,000 respectively [6][7]. Group 3: Investor Sentiment and Institutional Predictions - Many investors have capitalized on the recent gold price surge, with reports of significant returns on gold ETFs and funds [10]. - Several financial institutions have revised their gold price forecasts upward, with Goldman Sachs predicting a potential price of $3,300 per ounce by the end of 2025, and extreme scenarios suggesting prices could exceed $4,200 [11][12].

来源|中国基金报 继3月27日创下历史新高后，3月28日，国际金价再次延续上涨态势。截至发稿，现货黄金升至3070美元/盎司附近，黄金期货升至3110美元/盎司 附近，双双再次刷新历史新高。 01 国际金价再创历史新高 3月27日深夜，黄金持续上涨，伦敦金现刷新历史新高至3059.63美元/盎司，COMEX黄金也一度涨至3071.30美元/盎司，创下历史新高。 3月28日，国际金价再次冲高。伦敦金现突破3070美元/盎司关口，并一度上涨至3074.22美元/盎司，再创历史新高。截至发稿，报3073.69美元/ 盎司，涨幅达0.59%。 COMEX黄金则突破3110美元/盎司关口，并一度上涨至3114.7美元/盎司，再创历史新高。截至发稿，报3112.8美元/盎司，涨幅达0.71%。 3月28日，国内黄金首饰价格也进一步上涨，最高已突破930元/克。截至发稿，周生生足金首饰价格涨至934元/克，周大福、六福等足金首饰价格 涨至932元/克，老凤祥足金首饰价格涨至929元/克。 02 多家银行上调积存金起购金额 金价续创历史新高！ 3月24日，招商银行发布公告称，自3月27日起，黄金账户活期买入起点及黄金账户定投 ...