环球市场动态 美 元 弱 势 至 少 在 年 内 持 续 股 票 A 股周四涨跌不一，创业板再创三 年新高；港股高开低走，银行股拖 累大盘；欧洲股市普遍下跌，特朗 普贸易政策不确定性再度影响市场 情绪；美股三连跌，二季度 GDP 上 修影响市场降息预期。 外 汇 / 商 品 市场观望俄罗斯与北约之间的局 势，周四国际油价震荡；失业救济 人数和二季度 GDP 终值显示美国 经济强韧，降息预期略为降温，美 元跟随美债收益率走强；国际金价 高位靠稳；银价 14 年来首次突破 45 美元。 固 定 收 益 美国中短期国债领跌，强于预期的 经济数据令债市承压，收益率曲线 走平。亚洲债券需求回温，债券利 差普遍收窄 1-3 个基点。 产品及投资方案部 注：bp/bps=基点；pt/pts=百分点 中信证券财富管理 (香港) 免责声明请参考封底 2025 年 9 月 26 日 ▪ 美联储 2025 年 9 月重启降息，预计年内后续以及 2026 年美联储降息将持续，而欧央行降息放缓、日本央行 仍在加息进程中的背景下，美欧、美日利差预计将进一步收窄。同时，美国就业市场走弱、经济动能放缓预计 也将导致美元走弱。此外，特朗普致力 ...

Market Overview - Major US indices experienced declines, with the Dow Jones down 173.96 points (-0.38%) at 45947.32, Nasdaq down 113.16 points (-0.50%) at 22384.7, and S&P 500 down 33.25 points (-0.50%) at 6604.72 [2] Economic Developments - The US GDP for Q2 was revised to an annualized growth rate of 3.8%, exceeding expectations of 3.3%, driven by an increase in consumer spending from 1.6% to 2.5% [5] - The core PCE price index was revised to 2.6%, which is 0.1 percentage points higher than expected, indicating rising inflationary pressures [5] Corporate Actions - President Trump signed an executive order approving TikTok's continued operation in the US, with a valuation of $14 billion, involving a sale of its US operations to a new joint venture [8] - Oracle and Silver Lake Capital will be major investors in the new company, controlling approximately 45% of the shares, while ByteDance retains less than 20% [8] Legal and Regulatory Issues - Amazon reached a $2.5 billion settlement with the Federal Trade Commission over misleading Prime membership fees, which includes a $1 billion civil penalty and $1.5 billion in refunds to affected users [8] - SAP is under investigation by the European Commission for potential anti-competitive practices in the software support services market, which could lead to significant fines [9] - xAI, founded by Elon Musk, has filed a lawsuit against OpenAI for allegedly poaching employees and stealing trade secrets [8] Strategic Partnerships - Intel is in discussions with TSMC and Apple regarding investment and manufacturing collaborations, which have accelerated since the US government acquired a 10% stake in Intel [11]

Core Viewpoint - TikTok faces significant challenges in the U.S. due to increasing scrutiny from lawmakers and potential legislative actions that could lead to its breakup or ban, reflecting a growing resistance to globalization in a politically charged environment [3][5][6]. Group 1: Hearing Overview - The U.S. Congress held a hearing on TikTok, marking the first time in three years that the company’s CEO, Shou Zi Chew, attended to address concerns about data privacy and national security [3][4]. - The hearing lasted nearly five hours, during which Chew struggled to provide detailed answers due to frequent interruptions from lawmakers, highlighting the contentious nature of the inquiry [4][9]. - Lawmakers expressed concerns that TikTok poses a serious threat to American citizens by potentially allowing foreign governments to access sensitive data and influence content [7][8]. Group 2: User Engagement and Growth - TikTok has become deeply embedded in American society, with approximately 150 million monthly users, a threefold increase since 2020, and daily active users exceeding 80 million [5][39]. - Despite its growth, TikTok's penetration rate in the U.S. remains at about 24%, significantly lower than Douyin's (its Chinese counterpart) 54% [42]. Group 3: Legislative Environment - The Biden administration has provided TikTok with two options: either divest its U.S. operations or face a ban, reflecting a bipartisan consensus in Congress regarding the platform's risks [5][38]. - Recent legislative proposals, such as the RESTRICT Act, aim to empower the government to ban foreign applications deemed a threat to national security, with bipartisan support [38]. Group 4: Data Security Measures - TikTok is implementing the "Texas Project," which involves migrating its U.S. operations to Oracle's servers in Texas, aiming to alleviate concerns over data security and foreign access [46][50]. - The project is expected to cost TikTok between $700 million to $1 billion annually, with a focus on establishing a firewall for U.S. user data [46][50]. Group 5: Challenges and Comparisons - TikTok's advertising revenue generation is significantly lower than that of competitors like Facebook, with the platform struggling to monetize its user base effectively [42][43]. - The platform's e-commerce initiatives in the U.S. have been slow to develop, with plans for expansion being postponed due to regulatory pressures and competitive challenges [44][46].

Market Movements - Oracle shares fell over 5% while Tesla dropped more than 4%, resulting in a market value loss of $64.5 billion (approximately 460.2 billion RMB) in one night [1] - Intel surged nearly 9% as it engaged in discussions with Apple regarding potential investments to strengthen its business foundation [3] - Cryptocurrency and weight-loss stocks saw significant declines, with Hut 8 down over 7% and Circle down over 5% [5] Economic Indicators - The U.S. GDP for Q2 was revised to an annualized quarter-on-quarter growth of 3.8%, exceeding expectations of 3.3% [8] - The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index for Q2 was reported at 2.6%, higher than the anticipated 2.5% [8] - Analysts noted that the strong GDP report indicates persistent inflation pressures, which may limit the Federal Reserve's future rate cuts [9] Federal Reserve Outlook - The Federal Reserve's recent rate cut of 25 basis points may not significantly alter its expected path for future cuts due to ongoing inflation concerns [9] - The probability of maintaining rates in October is 14.5%, while the likelihood of a 25 basis point cut is 85.5% [10]

We go now live to the White House where President Trump has signed an executive order, clearing the way for a deal to sell Tik Tok's US assets to some US investors. Decisions based on what's good for their business as opposed to what's good for another government's propaganda arm. So that's what we've done with this deal.I think it's very good for the American people. And as the president said, young people love this. We actually want everybody to access this whether they're they're MAGA or not.We just want ...

Group 1 - The article highlights a surge in new-home sales in August, indicating a potential recovery in the housing market [1] - It mentions that the Washington blame game is escalating, which could impact investor sentiment and market stability [1] - An executive order from Trump regarding TikTok is anticipated, which may affect the tech industry and its regulatory landscape [1]

近年来，字节跳动多次被传将推动整体或部分业务独立上市，涵盖港股、美股乃至新加坡市场，估值一 度高达4000亿美元。 有市场消息称，字节跳动准备在中国香港上市。对此，抖音集团副总裁李亮发文表示，一大早就有朋友 问，不排除有人想炒作"字节概念股"而故意放的假消息。请大家不要信谣传谣，市场很多所谓"字节概 念股"的信息不实，请大家谨慎投资。 2021年4月，再次传出字节跳动上市消息时，该公司曾明确表示，目前暂不具备上市条件，并无相关计 划。同年6月，针对"字节跳动重启上市计划，计划2022年年初在香港上市"的消息，字节跳动也明确回 应称，该消息不实。 据此前媒体报道，在2025年第一季度，字节跳动的营收首次突破430亿美元，正式超过了Meta同期的 423亿美元，历史性地成为全球销售额最高的社交媒体公司。知情人士消息称，得益于强劲的广告需 求，2025年二季度字节跳动营收同比增长25%，达到约480亿美元。该公司预计2025年营收将达到1860 亿美元，与Meta的预期营收(1870亿美元)几乎持平。 据悉，2020年7月，有消息称字节跳动正考虑将旗下中国业务在香港或上海上市，但字节跳动当时回应 称"对市场传言，不 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent regulatory actions by the National Cyberspace Administration of China (NCA) against social media platforms aim to address the issues of sensationalism and harmful content in trending topics, potentially reshaping the information market and restoring fairness in content dissemination [1][2][3]. Group 1: Regulatory Actions - The NCA has conducted a series of enforcement actions against multiple social media platforms, including Xiaohongshu, Weibo, Kuaishou, Toutiao, and UC, due to the presence of harmful content in their trending topic lists [1][2]. - Platforms like Xiaohongshu and Kuaishou have been penalized for frequently showcasing celebrity gossip and trivial matters, which are deemed as negative content [1][2]. - In response to the penalties, platforms have committed to forming special rectification teams to improve the management of trending topics and enhance their content review processes [2][5]. Group 2: Issues with Trending Topics - The primary reasons for the penalties include the excessive entertainment focus of trending topics and the dissemination of sensitive and harmful information [3][4]. - The pursuit of traffic by social media platforms has led to a neglect of the informational value of content, with algorithms favoring sensational topics that attract user engagement [3][4]. - There is a concern that the manipulation of trending topics for commercial gain can disrupt the online ecosystem and potentially harm societal stability [4][5]. Group 3: Recommendations for Improvement - Experts suggest that social media platforms should establish clearer management standards for trending topics, including limits on the proportion of entertainment content [5]. - There is a call for platforms to provide personalized trending lists for different user demographics, allowing for a broader representation of important social issues [5]. - The shift from prioritizing traffic to valuing content quality is seen as essential for the evolution of social media platforms towards providing valuable information services [5].

王文涛表示，两国元首战略引领为中美经贸关系发展指明了原则和方向，前期双方经过多轮经贸磋商达 成了一系列重要共识成果，有力推动两国经贸关系回稳。在美中资企业克服困难，取得发展成绩，殊为 不易。当前全球贸易格局和规则正遭受单边主义、保护主义的严重冲击。希望企业把握形势，积极应 对，重视多元布局和合规经营，在不确定性中寻求确定性，既要抱团出海，也要抱团取暖，通力协作， 反对内卷外化。 王文涛指出，商务部高度重视中资企业在美发展，将按照中央决策部署，努力稳定中美经贸合作，坚定 维护中国企业正当权益，为两国企业互利合作营造良好环境。 9月24日晚，商务部发布消息称，当地时间9月23日，商务部部长王文涛在美国纽约召开部分在美中资企 业圆桌会。 据商务部介绍，金融、物流、跨境电商、石化、电信、轨道交通、汽车零部件、新能源、医药等领域的 十多家在美中资企业及美国中国总商会负责人参加会议，介绍在美业务情况，并就维护企业利益、拓展 务实合作等提出具体诉求和建议。 何亚东表示："关于TikTok问题，中方立场是一贯的。我们反对将科技和经贸问题政治化、工具化、武 器化，绝不会以牺牲原则立场、企业利益和国际公平正义为代价，寻求达成任何 ...

Group 1 - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce emphasizes the need for an open, fair, just, and non-discriminatory business environment for Chinese companies, including TikTok, to operate in the U.S. [1][4] - Wang Wentao, the Minister of Commerce, highlighted the importance of strategic guidance from the leaders of both countries for the development of Sino-U.S. economic and trade relations, noting that previous negotiations have led to significant consensus [1][4] - The Ministry of Commerce is committed to stabilizing Sino-U.S. economic cooperation and protecting the legitimate rights and interests of Chinese enterprises in the U.S. [1][4] Group 2 - Recent talks between China and the U.S. in Madrid focused on resolving issues related to TikTok and reducing investment barriers, resulting in a basic framework consensus [3][4] - The Chinese government opposes the politicization of technology and economic issues and insists on maintaining principles and fairness in negotiations regarding TikTok [3][4] - The Chinese government supports enterprises in conducting equal commercial negotiations based on market principles and will approve matters related to TikTok's technology exports and intellectual property rights [3][4]