Group 1 - In July, the manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.3%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points month-on-month, indicating a slight contraction in manufacturing activity [1] - The non-manufacturing business activity index and the composite PMI output index were 50.1% and 50.2%, respectively, both showing a month-on-month decline of 0.4 and 0.5 percentage points, but remaining above the critical point, suggesting overall economic expansion [1] - The production index and new orders index were 50.5% and 49.4%, respectively, with declines of 0.5 and 0.8 percentage points, indicating continued expansion in manufacturing production but a slowdown in market demand [1][2] Group 2 - Extreme weather conditions in July, including heatwaves and floods, hindered outdoor construction and daily life, impacting market demand [2] - The main raw materials purchasing price index rose to 51.5%, and the factory price index was 48.3%, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 3.1 and 2.1 percentage points, respectively, indicating an improvement in overall market price levels [2] - The equipment manufacturing PMI and high-tech manufacturing PMI were 50.3% and 50.6%, respectively, both above the critical point, while the consumer goods industry PMI was 49.5%, showing a month-on-month decline of 0.9 percentage points [2] Group 3 - The production and business activity expectation index was 52.6%, an increase of 0.6 percentage points month-on-month, indicating enhanced confidence among manufacturing enterprises regarding market development [3] - The service industry business activity index was 50.0%, slightly down by 0.1 percentage points, but still within the expansion range, indicating overall stability [3] - The summer holiday effect positively impacted sectors related to consumer travel and spending, with indices for railway transport, air transport, postal services, and cultural and sports entertainment exceeding 60.0%, indicating rapid growth in business volume [3]

Economic Indicators - The manufacturing PMI for July is at 49.3%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from June, indicating a weak recovery and potential peak in economic growth momentum[1] - The new orders index fell to 49.4%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, entering a contraction zone, suggesting tightening market demand[13] - The comprehensive PMI output index is at 50.2%, down 0.5 percentage points from last month, still indicating overall expansion in production activities[27] Sector Performance - The production index for July is at 50.5%, a decline of 0.5 percentage points, but remains in the expansion zone for three consecutive months[3] - Equipment manufacturing PMI is at 50.3% and high-tech manufacturing PMI is at 50.6%, both above the critical point, indicating continued expansion in these sectors[1] - The consumer goods industry PMI is at 49.5%, down 0.9 percentage points, while the high-energy-consuming industries PMI is at 48.0%, up 0.2 percentage points, showing mixed performance across sectors[1] External Trade and Demand - The new export orders index is at 47.1%, down 0.6 percentage points, reflecting cautious attitudes among foreign trade enterprises due to uncertainties in tariffs[16] - Port cargo throughput in July increased by 10.9% year-on-year, indicating some resilience in actual export volumes despite potential sustainability issues[17] Price Trends - The main raw material purchase price index rose to 51.5%, up 3.1 percentage points, marking the first rise above the critical point since March, indicating improved market price levels[18] - The factory price index is at 48.3%, up 2.1 percentage points, suggesting a slight recovery in manufacturing prices[18]

2025 年 07 月 31 日 宏 观 研 究 内外需震荡下行 PMI 走弱，能否快速迎来反弹？ ——PMI 点评（2025.7） 投资要点： 宏 观 点 评 财政补贴力度边际减弱、首轮关税缓和期临近以及部分地区极端天气 影响多重背景下，7 月制造业 PMI 指数再度回落。7 月制造业 PMI 回落 0.4 个百分点至 49.3%，连续第四个月位于荣枯线之下并创近半年来新低，产 需两侧同步回落，呈现以下结构性特征：1）7 月新订单指数大幅回落 0.8 个百分点至 49.4%，结构性指数中，消费品行业大幅回落 0.9 个百分点至 49.5，主因当前房地产市场震荡下行的趋势仍在延续，以汽车、家具家电 等为代表的后地产周期耐用品消费需求释放主要依靠财政补贴，但年初以 来财政靠前发力，多地消费品补贴额度提前下达使用，至 7 月初部分地区 出现财政补贴暂停的情况，尽管后续第二批资金下达，但仍对消费产生冲 击，也再度侧面凸显财政补贴延续的重要性；2）7 月新出口订单指数回落 0.6 个百分点至 47.1%，结构性指数中与出口相关度较高的高技术制造业、 装备制造业分别下行 0.3、1.1 个百分点，显示中美第一轮贸易谈判 ...

关注、加星，第一时间接收推送！ 文 | 赵伟、屠强 联系人| 屠强、 耿佩璇 摘要 事件 ：7月31日，国家统计局公布7月PMI指数，制造业PMI为49.3%、前值49.7%；非制造业PMI为 50.1%、前值50.5%。 展望后续：7月政治局会议再次强调"反内卷"，后续重点关注中下游"反内卷"效果及内需的边际变化。 7 月PMI显示中上游"反内卷"政策仍有待进一步推进。但实际上，目前高耗能行业已集中大规模改造，"反 内卷"的更多视角或聚焦中下游。7月政治局会议再次强调"反内卷"，后续需重点关注中下游"反内卷"进 度以及内需边际变化。 常规跟踪：制造业、非制造业景气均有回落。 制造业：制造业PMI有所回落，生产、新订单指数均有下行。 7月，制造业PMI边际下行0.4pct至49.3%。 生产、新订单边际分别下行0.5、0.8pct至50.5%、49.4%。需求方面，新出口订单指数环比回落0.6个百分 点至47.1%，进口订单指数持平前月。 服务业：服务业PMI小幅回落，新订单指数表现偏弱。 7月，服务业PMI环比回落0.1pct至50%。主要分 项中，新订单指数为46.3%。与居民出行和消费相关的铁路运输、航 ...

Group 1: PMI Data Overview - In July, the manufacturing PMI decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 49.3%, while the non-manufacturing PMI fell by 0.4 percentage points to 50.1%[6][28] - The decline in manufacturing PMI is greater than the average drop of 0.1 percentage points since 2017[7][28] - The purchasing price index for major raw materials rose by 3.1 percentage points to 51.5%, marking the first increase above the critical point since March[7][18] Group 2: Sector Performance - The production index in July remained in the expansion zone at 50.5%, despite a 0.5 percentage point decline[2][13] - The new orders index fell into the contraction zone, decreasing by 0.8 percentage points to 49.4%[2][14] - High-energy-consuming industries, particularly the steel sector, saw a PMI increase of 4.6 percentage points, returning to the expansion zone at 48%[18][21] Group 3: Investment and Demand Trends - Investment demand weakened significantly in July, contrasting with the strong performance of high-energy-consuming industries[21] - The construction PMI dropped by 2.2 percentage points to 50.6%, with new orders falling sharply to 42.7%[21][42] - The business activity expectation index for the construction sector decreased by 2.3 percentage points to 51.6%[21] Group 4: Future Outlook - The political bureau meeting in July emphasized the need for further implementation of "anti-involution" policies, particularly focusing on mid- and downstream sectors[23] - The report suggests that the effectiveness of "anti-involution" policies in stimulating domestic demand will be crucial for future manufacturing performance[23]

Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) in China for July 2025 is reported at 49.3%, indicating a decline of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, reflecting a downturn in manufacturing activity [1][4]. Manufacturing PMI Overview - The manufacturing PMI has decreased to 49.3%, with production index at 50.5% and new orders index at 49.4%, both showing declines from the previous month [1][4]. - The raw materials inventory index is at 47.7%, indicating a continued reduction in major raw material stocks, while the employment index has slightly increased to 48% [4][5]. - The supplier delivery time index is at 50.3%, suggesting that the delivery times for raw materials are improving [4]. Sector Performance - Key sectors such as railway, shipbuilding, aerospace, and computer communication electronics are showing active production and new orders, while sectors like chemical raw materials and non-metallic mineral products are underperforming [5][6]. - The equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing sectors have PMIs of 50.3% and 50.6%, respectively, remaining above the critical point, indicating ongoing expansion [6][7]. Economic Outlook - There is potential for demand recovery, with expectations that economic stabilization policies may be implemented to boost PMI [5][6]. - The price index for major raw materials has risen, with the purchasing price index at 51.5%, marking the first increase above the critical point since March [6][7]. Inventory and Business Confidence - The finished goods inventory index has decreased to 47.4%, reflecting cautious inventory adjustments by enterprises [7]. - Business confidence is improving, with the production and business activity expectation index rising to 52.6%, indicating a more optimistic outlook among manufacturers [7].

Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing PMI for July is 49.3%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, primarily influenced by seasonal production slowdowns and adverse weather conditions [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Recovery and Manufacturing Performance - The foundation for economic recovery remains solid, with the equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing PMIs continuing to expand, indicating ongoing structural optimization [2][3]. - Large enterprises are maintaining stable expansion, acting as a "ballast" for the economy [2][3]. - The rebound in the major raw material purchasing price index, which rose above the critical point for the first time since March, reflects improved market conditions in certain industries [4]. Group 2: Impact of Anti-Competition Measures - The anti-competition measures have positively influenced corporate expectations, as indicated by rising indices for purchasing prices, output prices, employment, supplier delivery times, and production activity expectations [4][5]. - The purchasing price index for major raw materials increased to 51.5%, while the output price index rose to 48.3%, showing significant recovery in specific sectors like petroleum and black metal processing [4]. Group 3: Consumer Activity and Seasonal Trends - The non-manufacturing business activity index for July is 50.1%, reflecting a slight decline but showing initial signs of summer consumption boosting economic activity [6][7]. - Retail activity is on the rise, with the retail business activity index surpassing the critical point, and new order indices showing significant increases [7]. - Travel and leisure activities are also gaining momentum, with indices for railway and air transport exceeding 60%, indicating strong consumer willingness to travel [7][8]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The summer consumption boost is expected to continue into August, supported by ongoing macroeconomic policies aimed at expanding domestic demand [8].

Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing PMI for July is reported at 49.3%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, primarily influenced by seasonal production slowdowns and adverse weather conditions [1][5][6]. Group 1: Manufacturing Sector Analysis - The manufacturing PMI reflects a contraction, but the underlying economic recovery remains solid, with equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing PMIs continuing to expand [3][7]. - Large enterprises are maintaining stable expansion, acting as a stabilizing force in the economy [3][7]. - The rebound in the major raw material purchasing price index indicates a positive shift in business expectations due to anti-involution measures [10][12]. Group 2: Non-Manufacturing Sector Insights - The non-manufacturing business activity index stands at 50.1%, showing a slight decline but remaining above the critical point, indicating ongoing activity in the sector [2][14]. - Summer consumption is beginning to show positive effects, with significant increases in retail and travel activities, although the accommodation and catering sectors remain below the critical point [14][15][16]. Group 3: Future Economic Outlook - The implementation of policies aimed at expanding domestic demand is expected to support stable economic growth and quality improvement in the second half of the year [8][17]. - Analysts predict that the positive impact of summer consumption will continue into August, contributing to a gradual increase in investment and consumption activities [16][17].

Core Points - The manufacturing PMI for July is reported at 49.3%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, primarily influenced by seasonal production slowdowns and adverse weather conditions [1][3] - The non-manufacturing business activity index and the composite PMI output index are at 50.1% and 50.2%, respectively, both showing a decline but remaining above the critical point [1][3] - Economic recovery fundamentals remain solid, with the equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing PMIs continuing to expand, indicating ongoing structural optimization [1][3] Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI's decline is attributed to traditional production off-seasons and extreme weather events, leading to a weaker demand side [2][3] - Despite the overall PMI decline, production activities in manufacturing are still expanding, particularly in the equipment and high-tech sectors, which are crucial for economic growth [3][5] Price Indices - Among the 13 sub-indices of the manufacturing PMI, the purchasing price index and the ex-factory price index have risen, indicating improved market conditions in certain sectors [5] - The main raw material purchasing price index has risen to 51.5%, marking the first increase above the critical point since March, suggesting a potential recovery in material costs [5] Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index is at 50.1%, reflecting a slight decline, but summer consumption is beginning to show positive effects in retail, travel, and entertainment sectors [7][9] - Retail activity is increasing, with the retail business activity index rising above the critical point, indicating strong consumer purchasing intentions [8] Future Outlook - The implementation of policies aimed at expanding domestic demand, such as "two new" and "two heavy" initiatives, is expected to support stable economic expansion and quality improvement in the second half of the year [1][9] - The positive impact of summer consumption is anticipated to continue into August, contributing to economic recovery [9]

国家统计局7月31日发布数据显示，7月份，制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为49.3%，比上月 下降0.4个百分点；非制造业商务活动指数和综合PMI产出指数分别为50.1%和50.2%，比上 月下降0.4和0.5个百分点，均持续高于临界点，我国经济总体产出保持扩张。 制造业PMI有所回落 "7月份，受制造业进入传统生产淡季，部分地区高温、暴雨洪涝灾害等因素影响，PMI降至 49.3%，制造业景气水平较上月回落。"国家统计局服务业调查中心高级统计师赵庆河表示。 图片来源：国家统计局 生产指数保持扩张。赵庆河表示，7月份，生产指数和新订单指数分别为50.5%和49.4%，比 上月下降0.5和0.8个百分点，制造业生产活动继续保持扩张，市场需求有所放缓。市场预期回 升。7月份，生产经营活动预期指数为52.6%，比上月上升0.6个百分点，制造业企业对近期 市场发展信心有所增强。 赵庆河表示，服务业商务活动指数总体稳定。7月份，服务业商务活动指数为50%，比上月略 降0.1个百分点。从行业看，在暑期假日效应带动下，与居民出行和消费相关的铁路运输、航 空运输、邮政、文化体育娱乐等行业商务活动指数位于60.0%以上高位景气区间 ...