Revenue Analysis - National general public budget revenue for 2025 was 21,604.5 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 1.7%[1] - National general public budget expenditure reached 28,739.5 billion CNY, showing a year-on-year increase of 1%[1] - Government fund budget revenue totaled 5,770.4 billion CNY, down 7% year-on-year[1] Tax Revenue Insights - Tax revenue growth was positive, with the monthly year-on-year growth rate gradually turning from negative to positive in the second half of the year[2] - Major tax categories (VAT, corporate income tax, and personal income tax) shifted from negative growth in 2024 to positive growth in 2025[2] - Personal income tax and securities transaction stamp tax saw significant improvements due to a vibrant equity market[2] Expenditure Focus - Public finance expenditure in the livelihood sector (education, social security, and health) accounted for over 38% of total expenditure, significantly higher than the average of the past five years[3] - Expenditure in the technology and cultural sectors reached a new high, particularly in technology[3] - Infrastructure spending saw a decline, with only environmental protection expenditure showing positive growth[3] Budget Completion Rates - The completion rate for the national general public budget revenue in 2025 was 98.3%, lower than the average of the past five years[2] - The completion rate for national general public budget expenditure was 96.8%, also below the average of the past five years[3] - Government fund budget revenue completion rate was 92.3%, while expenditure completion rate was 90.4%, the latter being higher than the average of the past five years[5]

Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Analysis - In January, the manufacturing PMI decreased by 0.8 points to 49.3, primarily due to seasonal factors and a significant drop in consumer goods and high-energy industries, which fell by 2.1 and 1.0 points respectively[2] - High-tech manufacturing PMI stood at 52.0, down 0.5 points, while equipment manufacturing PMI decreased by 0.3 points to 50.1[2] - The consumer goods and high-energy industries recorded PMIs of 48.3 and 47.9, reflecting declines of 2.1 and 1.0 points respectively[2] Group 2: Industry Performance Insights - The automotive sector saw a significant decline, with retail sales of passenger cars dropping by 37% in January compared to the same period last year[2] - Brent crude oil prices rose from $61 per barrel at the end of 2025 to $71 per barrel by the end of January 2026, impacting the petrochemical and chemical industries negatively[2] - The non-ferrous and black metal sectors experienced increases of 4.0 and 2.0 points respectively, driven by global pricing expectations and pre-season stockpiling[2] Group 3: Emerging Industries and Construction Sector - Emerging industries such as biotechnology, new energy vehicles, and next-generation information technology continue to lead in performance, with biotechnology remaining above 60 in the high prosperity range[5] - The construction sector's PMI fell by 4.0 points to 48.8, exceeding seasonal declines observed in previous years[6] - New orders in the construction sector decreased by 7.3 points, indicating a slowdown in demand[8] Group 4: Service Sector Trends - The service sector PMI slightly decreased by 0.2 points to 49.5, remaining in the contraction zone for three consecutive months[10] - Financial services, including monetary finance and capital market services, maintained high activity levels, with indices above 65[10] - The transportation and information services sectors saw declines in their PMIs, while residential services experienced a slight increase of 1.6 points[10]

1月份中国采购经理指数有所回落 ——国家统计局服务业调查中心首席统计师霍丽慧 （三）大型企业PMI继续高于临界点。 大型企业PMI为50.3%，仍位于扩张区间，大型企业支撑作 用持续显现；中、小型企业PMI分别为48.7%和47.4%，比上月下降1.1个和1.2个百分点，景气水平有所 回落。 （四）高技术制造业持续领跑。 高技术制造业PMI为52.0%，连续两个月位于52.0%及以上较高水 平，相关行业发展态势持续向好。装备制造业PMI为50.1%，保持在扩张区间。消费品行业和高耗能行 业PMI分别为48.3%和47.9%，景气水平有所回落。 （五）企业预期保持乐观。 生产经营活动预期指数为52.6%，继续高于临界点。从行业看，农副食 品加工、食品及酒饮料精制茶等行业生产经营活动预期指数连续两个月位于56.0%以上较高景气区间， 相关企业对近期行业发展信心较强。 解读2026年1月中国采购经理指数 2026年1月31日国家统计局服务业调查中心和中国物流与采购联合会发布了中国采购经理指数。对 此，国家统计局服务业调查中心首席统计师霍丽慧进行了解读。 1月份，制造业采购经理指数、非制造业商务活动指数和综合PMI产 ...

民生保障坚实有力，发展成果惠及全民。财政金融运行稳健，全年一般公共预算收入完成200.1亿元， 增长1%；本外币存贷款余额均保持10%以上的双位数增长。就业形势基本稳定，全年城镇新增就业4.76 万人，超额完成年度目标任务的110.7%。市场活力持续迸发，2025年12月末全市各类市场主体达到35.3 万户，2025年新增"四上"企业529户，为经济长远发展积蓄了充足后劲。 2025年全市经济保持稳中有进发展态势，新兴动能加快成长，发展质量稳步提升。全市上下将继续坚持 稳中求进、提质增效，以科技创新引领发展新质生产力，着力培育壮大实体经济，纵深推进文旅融合发 展，持续巩固增强经济向好势头，奋力实现"十五五"良好开局。(记者 余庆) 近日，记者从新闻发布会上获悉，2025年全市上下坚定不移贯彻新发展理念、推动高质量发展，落实落 细稳经济系列政策措施，交出了一份亮眼的"成绩单"。根据统一核算，2025年全年全市生产总值达 2148.6亿元，按不变价格计算，同比增长6%。全市经济呈现向新向优向好态势，主要目标任务基本实 现，高质量发展迈出坚实步伐。 产业根基持续夯实，新质生产力加速崛起。分产业看，第一二三产业增加值 ...

Economic Indicators - In January 2026, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.8 percentage points from December 2025, indicating a contraction[1] - The non-manufacturing business activity index was 49.4%, also down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month[1] - The comprehensive PMI output index fell to 49.8%, a decrease of 0.9 percentage points from December 2025[1] Contributing Factors - Seasonal factors contributed to the decline, as January is typically a slow month for manufacturing, with an average drop of 0.3 percentage points over the past decade[2] - The base effect from a significant increase in December 2025's PMI (up 0.9 percentage points to 50.1%) also pressured January's figures[2] - Weak domestic investment and consumption demand, alongside high external uncertainties, particularly in the real estate market, negatively impacted manufacturing[2] Specific Index Movements - The new orders index for manufacturing fell 1.6 percentage points to 49.2%, the primary driver of the PMI decline[2] - The manufacturing new export orders index decreased by 1.2 percentage points, indicating potential export slowdown due to external uncertainties[2] - The production index in manufacturing dropped 1 percentage point to 50.6%, but remained in the expansion zone, supported by global AI investment trends[3] Sector Performance - High-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing PMIs were 52% and 50.1%, respectively, remaining in expansion territory due to strong exports and domestic equipment upgrades[5] - Consumer goods and basic materials PMIs fell to 48.3% and 47.9%, respectively, primarily due to slowing market demand[5] - The construction PMI dropped significantly by 4 percentage points to 48.8%, influenced by seasonal factors and ongoing adjustments in the real estate market[6] Future Outlook - The overall economic sentiment is expected to decline further in February due to the upcoming Spring Festival and increased holiday downtime[6] - Future manufacturing sentiment will largely depend on export growth, real estate market trends, and the timing and intensity of growth-stimulating policies[6] - There is potential for monetary policy easing in the second quarter, with fiscal policies expected to strengthen consumption and investment[6]

Group 1 - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for January is 49.3%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing activity due to seasonal factors and insufficient market demand [2] - The production index stands at 50.6%, indicating continued expansion in manufacturing production, while the new orders index is at 49.2%, reflecting a drop in market demand [2] - Certain industries such as agricultural processing and aerospace have production and new orders indices above 56.0%, indicating strong demand, while sectors like petroleum and automotive show indices below the critical point, suggesting a slowdown in market demand [2] Group 2 - The main raw materials purchasing price index and the factory price index are at 56.1% and 50.6%, respectively, both showing increases from the previous month, with the factory price index rising above the critical point for the first time in nearly 20 months [3] - Large enterprises maintain a PMI of 50.3%, indicating continued expansion, while medium and small enterprises show PMIs of 48.7% and 47.4%, reflecting a decline in their economic performance [3] - High-tech manufacturing leads with a PMI of 52.0%, remaining above 52.0% for two consecutive months, while consumer goods and high-energy industries show lower PMIs of 48.3% and 47.9%, indicating a decrease in their economic conditions [3] Group 3 - The production and business activity expectation index is at 52.6%, indicating optimism among enterprises, particularly in agricultural processing and food industries, which have indices above 56.0% [4] - The non-manufacturing business activity index for January is 49.4%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in overall non-manufacturing activity [4] - The service industry business activity index is at 49.5%, down 0.2 percentage points, with sectors like financial services showing high activity indices above 65.0%, while the real estate sector drops below 40.0%, indicating weak performance [4]

Group 1 - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) in January was 49.3%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing activity due to seasonal factors and insufficient market demand [1] - The production index was at 50.6%, indicating continued expansion in manufacturing production, while the new orders index fell to 49.2%, reflecting a drop in market demand [1] - Industries such as agricultural processing and aerospace showed strong production and new orders indices above 56.0%, while sectors like petroleum and automotive experienced a slowdown with indices below the critical point [1] Group 2 - The price indices for major raw materials and factory prices rose to 56.1% and 50.6%, respectively, influenced by recent increases in commodity prices, marking an improvement in the overall price level in the manufacturing market [1] - The raw material inventory index decreased to 47.4%, indicating a continued reduction in the inventory of major raw materials in manufacturing [1] - High-tech manufacturing PMI was at 52.0%, maintaining a strong performance, while the equipment manufacturing PMI was at 50.1%, indicating expansion [2] Group 3 - Large enterprises maintained a PMI of 50.3%, indicating continued expansion, while small and medium-sized enterprises saw declines in their PMIs to 48.7% and 47.4%, respectively [2] - The production and business activity expectation index was at 52.6%, showing optimistic expectations among enterprises, particularly in the agricultural and food sectors [2] - Macroeconomic policies are expected to become more proactive, focusing on expanding domestic demand, with recent government initiatives aimed at stimulating consumption [3]

Group 1: Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) decreased to 49.3% in January, indicating a decline in economic sentiment compared to the previous month [1][2] - The production index remained above the critical point at 50.6%, suggesting continued expansion in manufacturing production, while the new orders index fell to 49.2%, indicating a drop in market demand [2] - Large enterprises maintained a PMI of 50.3%, indicating ongoing expansion, while small and medium-sized enterprises saw declines in their PMIs to 48.7% and 47.4%, respectively [3] - High-tech manufacturing continued to lead with a PMI of 52.0%, reflecting a positive development trend in this sector [3] - The price indices for major raw materials and factory prices rose to 56.1% and 50.6%, respectively, indicating an overall improvement in market price levels [2] Group 2: Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index fell to 49.4%, reflecting a decrease in overall economic sentiment in this sector [1][4] - The service industry business activity index was at 49.5%, with significant activity in financial services, while the real estate sector's index dropped below 40.0%, indicating weak sentiment [4] - The construction industry experienced a notable decline, with its business activity index at 48.8%, influenced by adverse weather and the upcoming holiday [4] - Despite the decline in current activity, the service industry business activity expectation index rose to 57.1%, indicating increased confidence among service sector enterprises [4] Group 3: Composite PMI - The composite PMI output index was recorded at 49.8%, showing a slight decrease from the previous month, indicating a general slowdown in production and business activities [1][5] - The manufacturing production index and non-manufacturing business activity index were 50.6% and 49.4%, respectively, contributing to the overall composite PMI output index [5]

丨证券研究报告丨 固定收益丨点评报告 [Table_Title] 从"以价换量"到"以量换价"？——1 月 PMI 点评 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 2026 年 1 月，制造业 PMI 回落 0.8pct 至 49.3%，非制造业景气度也回落至荣枯线以下，弱于 季节性水平。产需走弱，库存积压；春节临近，后续消费需求能否顺利消化库存仍有待观察。 总体来看，稳增长的方式或从"以价换量"转向"以量换价"，基本面的改善仍需长期性修复，但不 乏亮点：一是大宗商品涨价带动整体价格回升，二是装备制造和高端技术制造业持续释放增长 潜力。而企业利润修复能否持续，还需观察原料成本和产成品价格的动态均衡。预计债市或对 偏弱数据有所反应但难以走出持续修复行情，近期我们维持债市震荡的观点。 分析师及联系人 %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Author] SAC：S0490524080003 SFC：BVN394 赵增辉 马玮健 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% 2026 年 1 月，制造业 PMI 回落 0.8pct 至 49.3%，低于万得一致预期；非制造业商务活动指数 为 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of digital twin technology in optimizing the manufacturing process and enhancing the competitiveness of the equipment manufacturing industry in Sichuan [1][2] - Sichuan's equipment manufacturing sector has a strong foundation in aerospace, rail transportation, and clean energy, but faces challenges in transitioning from traditional models to modern practices [1][2] - The proposal includes building more provincial-level pilot verification platforms to facilitate the practical application of domestic technologies and optimize processes [2] Group 2 - The focus is on leveraging artificial intelligence and digital twin technology to drive the transformation of traditional manufacturing into intelligent manufacturing [2] - The collaboration between local governments and leading enterprises is essential to create a closed-loop innovation system that connects theoretical research, technology development, and industrial application [2] - The commitment to fostering continuous innovation in the equipment manufacturing industry is highlighted, with an emphasis on integrating education, research, talent, and industry [3]