Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content Core Views - Trump's tariff policy has led to significant fluctuations in overseas stock markets, suppressing market risk appetite. However, domestic monetary policy tools have sufficient room for adjustment, and institutions such as Central Huijin have increased their holdings of ETFs to stabilize the market. Policy encourages long - term capital to enter the market. [2][4] - The economic growth in the first quarter was good, but there may be pressure in the second quarter due to tariffs. Interest rates are in a game stage, expected to remain volatile in the short - term. [6] - There are differences between the net long positions of foreign gold management funds and the holdings of gold ETFs, and there is a risk of a short - term pullback in gold prices. [7] - The prices of various metals and energy chemicals are affected by factors such as supply and demand, policies, and tariffs, showing different trends. [10][11][40] Summaries by Categories Macro - financial Stock Index - The previous trading day saw mixed performance of major indexes, with a decline in trading volume. Macro news includes national measures to stabilize the stock market and real estate, and Trump - related tariff and interest - rate remarks. The financing amount decreased, and the overnight Shibor rate increased. [2] - The P/E ratios, P/B ratios, and dividend yields of major indexes are provided, along with the basis ratios of stock index futures. [3] - Affected by Trump's tariff policy, overseas stock market fluctuations suppress risk appetite. It is recommended to go long on IH or IF futures related to the economy and IC or IM futures related to "new - quality productivity" after the tariff impact weakens. The strategy is to buy IM long - positions on dips. [4] Treasury Bonds - On Friday, the main contracts of TL and T rose, while TF and TS fell. Fiscal revenue data shows a decline in tax revenue and an increase in non - tax revenue. Trump called for the Fed to lower interest rates. The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations, achieving a net injection. [5][6] - Economic growth in the first quarter was good, but there may be pressure in the second quarter. Interest rates are in a game stage, expected to remain volatile in the short - term. Attention should be paid to policy signals from the end - of - April meeting and economic data. [6] Precious Metals - The prices of Shanghai gold and COMEX gold rose, while Shanghai silver and COMEX silver fell. Trump expressed confidence in a tariff agreement, and the VIX index declined. The net long positions of foreign gold management funds decreased, while the holdings of global gold ETFs increased significantly. There is a risk of a short - term pullback in gold prices. [7] - It is expected that the Fed will maintain a hawkish stance in May. It is recommended to hold existing gold long - positions, and the cost - effectiveness of opening new long - positions is low. For silver, it is recommended to wait and see. [8] Non - ferrous Metals Copper - Last week, copper prices fluctuated slightly higher. Exchange inventories decreased, and the spot import was slightly in deficit. The LME market shifted from premium to discount. The scrap copper supply was tight, and the operating rate of recycled copper rod enterprises decreased. Trump's statement and the approaching Politburo meeting may bring positive sentiment. In the short - term, prices may fluctuate. [10] Aluminum - Last week, aluminum prices fluctuated weakly. Domestic and LME inventories decreased, and the spot premium increased. The demand for photovoltaic - related aluminum is strong. The impact of tariffs is limited, and domestic aluminum prices are expected to be supported by the decline in inventory, with the possibility of a wider spread between months. [11] Zinc - Last week, zinc prices continued to decline. Domestic and overseas inventories showed different trends, and the basis and spread changed. The supply is expected to be loose, and downstream procurement is expected to weaken. In the short - term, prices may fluctuate at a low level, and there is a risk of further decline in the medium - term. [12][13] Lead - Last week, lead prices rebounded after a decline. Domestic and overseas inventories decreased, and the basis and spread strengthened slightly. The supply is generally loose, and the demand is stable. In the short - term, prices may fluctuate strongly, and in the medium - term, they are expected to fluctuate in a range. [14] Nickel - Last week, nickel prices recovered due to the alleviation of tariff concerns. The supply is expected to increase, the demand for high - priced nickel is limited, and the cost support may weaken. It is recommended to short on rallies. [15] Tin - Last week, tin prices fluctuated. The supply may decrease in April, and the demand has improved but its sustainability is uncertain. The inventory has decreased. In the short - term, prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level. [16] Lithium Carbonate - The price of lithium carbonate decreased slightly. The impact of tariffs has faded, and the price has entered the bottom - cost area. Production has decreased, and inventory accumulation has slowed. The supply and demand may weaken, and the price is likely to fluctuate weakly. [18] Alumina - The alumina index fell. The spot price remained unchanged, the basis was positive, and the overseas price was stable. The supply is still in surplus, but there are more production cuts recently. It is recommended to wait and see. [19] Stainless Steel - The price of stainless steel decreased. The spot price was stable, and the basis increased. The raw material price was stable, and the inventory decreased. The sales were slow, and the price decline was limited by cost inversion. [20] Black Building Materials Steel - The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil decreased. The registered warehouse receipts decreased, and the positions increased. The spot price also decreased. The "tariff issue" has a great impact on the overall commodity price, and the demand for steel is affected. The supply and demand of steel have different trends, and the inventory is decreasing. The market shows a pattern of "strong reality, weak expectation". [22][23] Iron Ore - The price of iron ore decreased. The overseas mine shipments were stable, the arrival volume increased, the demand may weaken, and the inventory decreased. In the short - term, it will wait for consolidation, and in the later stage, there is downward pressure on the price. [24] Glass and Soda Ash - The spot price of glass decreased, the sales were weak, and the inventory decline slowed. The spot price of soda ash was stable, the supply was at a high level, and the inventory decreased slightly. The demand for soda ash from photovoltaic glass provides some support, and it is expected to run weakly. [25][26] Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - The price of manganese silicon continued to decline, and the price of ferrosilicon also decreased. The supply is relatively strong, and the demand is weak. The cost of manganese ore may continue to decline, and there is a risk of further price decline. For ferrosilicon, the production is decreasing, but the demand may also weaken. It is recommended to wait and see or follow the short - term trend. [27][28][29] Industrial Silicon - The price of industrial silicon accelerated its decline. The supply is in surplus, and the demand is insufficient. Downstream industries have over - supply, and the production of industrial silicon is still expanding. It is recommended to wait and see or follow the short - term trend. [32][33] Energy and Chemicals Rubber - The global financial market is volatile, and the decline in rubber prices has released most of the risks. The bulls expect price increases due to production - cut expectations, while the bears are bearish due to weak demand. The operating rate of tire enterprises decreased, and the inventory increased. It is expected to fluctuate, and short - term operations are recommended. [36][37][38] Crude Oil - The prices of WTI, Brent, and INE crude oil futures increased. European oil product inventories showed different trends, with an overall increase in refined oil inventories. It is believed that the oil price has bottomed out, and investors are advised to take profits on dips and wait for a turning point. [40][41][42] Methanol - The 09 - contract price of methanol increased, while the spot price decreased. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand may weaken. It is recommended to short on rallies, and pay attention to the 9 - 1 spread and the PP - 3MA spread. [43] Urea - The 09 - contract price of urea increased, while the spot price decreased. The supply will remain high, and the demand will be strong. The inventory is expected to decrease, and it is suitable to go long on dips, with a positive - spread strategy for the 9 - 1 spread. [44] Styrene - The price of the 06 - contract of styrene increased, while the spot price decreased. The cost is affected by the price of crude oil and pure benzene, and the downstream demand is weak. It is recommended to wait for opportunities to short on rallies. [45] PVC - The price of the PVC09 contract decreased slightly. The cost is stable, the supply and demand are weak, and the inventory is decreasing. In the short - term, it is expected to fluctuate weakly, and in the medium - term, the valuation center will continue to decline. [46][47] Ethylene Glycol - The price of the EG09 contract increased, while the spot price decreased. The supply decreased, and the demand increased. The inventory is decreasing, but there is a risk of negative feedback in the industry chain. It is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term. [48] PTA - The price of the PTA09 contract increased, and the spot price also increased. The supply is in the maintenance season, and the demand is affected by the downstream. The inventory is decreasing, and the processing fee is under pressure. It is recommended to wait and see. [49] p - Xylene - The price of the PX09 contract increased, and the CFR price also increased. The supply is in the maintenance season, and the demand is affected by the downstream. The inventory is decreasing, and the valuation is low. It is recommended to wait and see. [50][51] Polyethylene (PE) - The price of PE decreased. The supply will increase in the second quarter, the demand is weakening, and the price is expected to decline in the medium - and long - term. [52] Polypropylene (PP) - The price of PP increased slightly. The cost is supported, the supply will increase, and the demand will decline seasonally. It is expected to fluctuate weakly. [53] Agricultural Products Live Pigs - The domestic pig price mainly declined over the weekend. The terminal demand is limited, and the price may decline in the north and remain stable in the south. It is advisable to short on short - term rebounds. [55] Eggs - The domestic egg price was mainly stable over the weekend, with a slight decline in some areas. The supply is mostly sufficient, and the demand is average. The price may rise slightly and then stabilize, with a risk of decline later. It is recommended to wait for short - selling signals. [56] Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - The domestic soybean meal price increased locally over the weekend, with a trend of inventory accumulation in the future. The开机率 is expected to increase. The price of U.S. soybeans is affected by weather and tariffs. The cost of imported soybeans is expected to rise steadily, and domestic soybean meal is expected to fluctuate in a range. [57][58] Oils and Fats - The export of Malaysian palm oil increased in April, and the production also increased. The price of crude oil has an impact on the valuation of oils and fats. The supply of oils and fats is increasing seasonally, and there is a risk of price decline. If the macro - economy stabilizes, there may be support. [59][60] Sugar - The price of Zhengzhou sugar futures rebounded slightly. The domestic supply and demand are in a tight balance, and the price is relatively resistant to decline. In the short - term, the price may fluctuate, and in the long - term, it may decline if the weather improves. [61][62] Cotton - The price of Zhengzhou cotton futures fluctuated narrowly. The spot price increased slightly, and the basis was positive. The operating rate of spinning and weaving mills decreased, and the inventory increased. The domestic supply and demand are in a tight balance, and the price trend depends on downstream consumption. [63][64]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of fluctuating oil prices and rising gold prices, emphasizing the need for measures to stabilize the economy and promote high-quality development in China [1][4]. Group 1: Economic Measures - The Chinese government is focusing on increasing counter-cyclical adjustments to stabilize employment, foreign trade, and consumption, while enhancing domestic demand and improving quality [1][6]. - The government aims to support foreign investment and promote effective investment in various sectors, including services like elderly care and tourism [6]. Group 2: Oil Market - The SC night market saw a 0.33% increase in oil prices, with OPEC announcing further production cuts from several countries to compensate for previous overproduction [2][11]. - The new compensation plan requires seven countries to reduce daily production by 369,000 barrels from now until June 2026, with monthly reductions ranging from 196,000 to 520,000 barrels [2][11]. Group 3: Stock Market - The US stock market was closed, and the previous trading day saw a slight decline in stock indices, with a total trading volume of 0.95 trillion yuan [3][9]. - The financing balance decreased by 3.413 billion yuan to 1.798997 trillion yuan, indicating a cautious market sentiment amid ongoing US-China tariff negotiations [3][9]. Group 4: Precious Metals - Gold prices continue to rise, driven by market speculation and concerns over inflation, with the potential for the Federal Reserve to restart quantitative easing [4][19]. - The article highlights the increasing risks of recession and the challenges posed by US debt, contributing to the strong performance of gold [4][19]. Group 5: International Trade - The World Trade Organization reported that US tariff policies have severely worsened global trade prospects, predicting a 0.2% decline in global goods trade volume by 2025 [5]. - In North America, exports are expected to drop by 12.6% due to the current tariff situation [5]. Group 6: Agricultural Trade - China and Brazil are enhancing agricultural trade interactions in response to US tariffs, focusing on the export of Brazilian soybeans and beef [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - Tariff expectations intensify risk - averse trading. Overseas, tariff disturbances increase market risk - averse sentiment. Domestically, the economy may cool down in Q2. Trump's tariff increase expectations disrupt global risk assets, and the bond market pressure will weaken compared to March [2][3]. - Gold prices hit a new high due to concerns about US tariffs triggering inflation and hindering economic growth. Silver prices are weak due to the decline in copper prices. The short - term gold price is expected to remain strong, but caution is needed after the tariff policy is implemented [4]. - Copper prices are expected to decline in the short - term. The US economic stagflation risk is rising, and the global economic slowdown expectation is strengthened. The copper market's fundamental tightness at the mine end remains unchanged, but the current trading focus is on overseas trade situations [6][7]. - Aluminum prices are under pressure due to tariff uncertainties. Although the fundamentals support is still good, the aluminum price is expected to fluctuate [8][9]. - Alumina prices are expected to remain weak as the market supply is still abundant, and there is no large - scale maintenance or production reduction in the short term [10][11]. - Zinc prices have fallen significantly. The approaching of the equal - tariff policy makes the market trading sentiment cautious, and the zinc price is expected to remain weak before the tariff is implemented [12]. - Lead prices are weakly sorted due to weak supply and demand. The short - term lead price will fluctuate around the macro - sentiment and is expected to be weakly adjusted [13]. - Tin prices are supported by supply - side tightening expectations, but the approaching of Trump's tariff increases macro - risks. Short - term chasing of high prices should be cautious, and attention should be paid to the situation in Myanmar [14][15]. - Industrial silicon prices are bottom - oscillating. High inventory restricts the upward momentum of the spot market, and the short - term price is expected to continue to build the bottom [16][17]. - Lithium carbonate prices are oscillating at a low level. High inventory suppresses demand, and the price is expected to continue to oscillate [18]. - Nickel prices may fluctuate. The cost and demand drive the nickel - iron price to be strong, but the stainless - steel inventory pressure may affect the demand for nickel - iron. Pay attention to the implementation of Indonesian policies [19][20]. - Crude oil prices have risen due to the intensification of the US - Iran conflict. The short - term oil market may be affected by emotions, and it is recommended to wait and see [21]. - Steel prices are oscillating. The demand growth rate is slowing down, and attention should be paid to the impact of the main contract change on the market [22]. - Iron ore prices are mainly oscillating. The overseas supply has increased, and the iron - water production growth rate has slowed down [23][24]. - Bean and rapeseed meal prices may oscillate. The USDA's end - of - month report is relatively neutral, and the domestic soybean inventory decline is slowing down [25][26]. - Palm oil prices may oscillate within a range. The export of Malaysian palm oil may increase, and the domestic palm oil is slowly destocking [27][28]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Metal Main Variety Trading Data - The table shows the closing data of major futures markets yesterday, including contracts such as SHFE copper, LME copper, SHFE aluminum, etc., with details of closing prices, price changes, price change percentages, total trading volumes, total open interests, and price units [29]. 2. Industrial Data Perspective - The table presents the industrial data of various metals on March 31 and March 28, including price changes, inventory changes, and other information of copper, nickel, zinc, lead, aluminum, alumina, tin, precious metals, steel, iron ore, coke, coking coal, lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, and bean and rapeseed meal [30][33][35].