有色金属专场-2026 年度策略会 20151223 摘要 特朗普 2.0 政策通过对等关税引发通胀预期和经济滞涨，地缘政治风险 增加避险需求，共同推高黄金价格，并加剧全球经济压力。 2025 年前三季度全球黄金供需增速均为 3%，但结构变化显著：金饰品 需求因高金价下降，央行购金放缓，ETF 投资成为主要支撑。 黄金税收新政区分投资性和非投资性用途，提高首饰税负，导致国内首 饰店报价高于盘面价格，预计将减少四季度及明年一季度首饰消费。 白银市场连续五年供不应求，加上 ETF 增量，预计今年是连续第七年供 不应求，库存流动性不足支撑银价上涨，基本面强劲，与黄金的金融属 性形成对比。 博巴和铂金均供不应求，但博巴供需紧张有所缓解，铂金更为严重。博 巴主要用于传统汽车，铂金更多应用于新能源汽车，铂金需求多元化， 更具向上弹性。 美国中期选举前，政府可能采取宽松货币和财政政策，包括降息、停止 缩表、减税等，以刺激经济，可能推高黄金价格。 美联储货币政策对黄金价格的影响减弱，地缘政治风险、美国国债问题 和美元信用下降等因素使得黄金定价逻辑多元化，预计 2026 年金价运 行区间可能在 3,900 到 4,800 美元 ...

Group 1: Pinduoduo (PDD) Analysis - Pinduoduo's Q3 revenue reached RMB 108.276 billion, a year-on-year increase of 9%, aligning with market expectations[8] - Online marketing services revenue was RMB 53.348 billion, up 8% YoY, while transaction services revenue was RMB 54.929 billion, up 10% YoY, indicating a deepening commercial model[8] - The company maintained a net profit of RMB 29.328 billion, a 17% increase YoY, with a net profit margin of 27.1%[8] - Target price for Pinduoduo is set at USD 148.90, reflecting a 31% upside potential from the current price of USD 113.24[11] Group 2: Xiaomi Group (1810) Analysis - Xiaomi's Q3 smartphone revenue was RMB 45.97 billion, a decline of 3.1% YoY, with global smartphone shipments at 43.3 million units, a 0.5% increase YoY[16] - The automotive business achieved revenue of RMB 29.01 billion, with a gross margin of 25.5%, marking the first quarterly profit of RMB 700 million[18] - Xiaomi's IoT revenue increased by 5.6% YoY to RMB 27.6 billion, with a gross margin of 23.9%[17] - Target price for Xiaomi is set at HKD 50.20, indicating a potential upside of 31.83% from the current price of HKD 38.08[22]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has officially lowered interest rates by 25 basis points, marking a significant monetary policy shift [1] - The primary reason for this rate cut is the recent poor employment data in the U.S., which has pressured the Fed to act [3] - A deeper underlying reason for the rate cut is the political pressure from the White House, particularly from President Trump, who is focused on stabilizing the economy ahead of the midterm elections [4][6] Group 2 - The Fed's rate cut is expected to impact the global economy through exchange rates, interest rates, and capital markets, potentially leading to a stronger RMB and increased capital flows into Chinese assets [7] - Market expectations for the Fed's rate cut have already been priced in, leading to fluctuations in asset prices, including gold reaching new highs [9] - The rate cut provides the People's Bank of China with more room to maneuver in its monetary policy, potentially leading to further interest rate cuts or reductions in reserve requirements [9]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Gold and silver prices show different trends today, with gold strong and silver weak. The short - term trade agreements are reached in batches, leading to a decline in risk - aversion demand. The risk of stagflation in the US economy increases, employment weakens, inflation is moderate, and the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut rebounds. It is expected that precious metals will be oscillating strongly in the short - term, oscillating at a high level in the medium - term, and rising step - by - step in the long - term [1]. - The gold price trend is the anchor of the silver price. In terms of capital, CFTC silver net long positions and iShare silver ETF have slightly reduced their positions. In terms of inventory, the recent explicit inventory of silver has slightly increased [6]. Summary by Directory Gold - **Price Performance**: Comex gold and London gold have risen, while domestic gold prices such as the closing price of the Shanghai Gold Exchange's main contract and gold T + D have also shown different degrees of increase. The basis and spreads, and ratios have also changed [2]. - **Position and Inventory**: Comex gold and Shanghai Gold Exchange's main contract positions have decreased, while gold T + D positions have increased. LBMA inventory remains unchanged, Comex gold inventory has decreased, and Shanghai Gold Exchange's gold inventory has increased [2]. - **Strategy**: Conservative investors are advised to wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended [3]. - **Net Position Ranking**: The top 10 net long and net short positions of futures companies' members in the Shanghai Gold Exchange have different changes in net positions and daily ratios [4]. Silver - **Price Performance**: The closing price of the Comex silver main contract has risen, while the London silver price has fallen. Domestic silver prices such as the closing price of the Shanghai Silver Exchange's main contract and silver T + D have decreased [7]. - **Position and Inventory**: Comex silver positions have increased, while Shanghai Silver Exchange's main contract positions have decreased, and silver T + D positions have increased. Silver inventories in different places have different changes, and the total explicit inventory has slightly decreased [7]. - **Strategy**: Conservative investors are advised to wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended [7]. - **Net Position Ranking**: The top 10 net long and net short positions of futures companies' members in the Shanghai Silver Exchange have different changes in net positions and daily ratios [8]. Fundamental Key Data - **Fed - related Data**: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate, the discount rate, and the reserve balance interest rate have all decreased by 0.25. The Fed's total assets have decreased slightly, and M2 has increased year - on - year [9]. - **Other Key Indicators**: The ten - year US Treasury real yield, the US dollar index, and the US Treasury yield spreads have all changed. US inflation, economic growth, labor market, real estate market, consumption, industry, trade, and economic survey data have also shown different trends. Central bank gold reserves in different countries and regions have different changes, and some currency - related ratios have also changed [9][11][13]. - **Fed Interest Rate Expectation**: According to the CME FedWatch tool, the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in different meeting dates from September 2025 to December 2026 is different [14].

Group 1 - The price volatility of precious metals is expected to increase in the future due to recent changes in U.S. tariffs on gold bars and ongoing economic uncertainties [1][2] - The recent rise in gold prices is attributed to weak U.S. employment data and concerns over stagflation, which have driven safe-haven demand [1][3] - The long-term bullish trend for gold remains intact despite short-term fluctuations, supported by ongoing global economic uncertainties and rising public debt [2][3] Group 2 - The recent imposition of tariffs on Swiss gold bars has led to increased premiums in COMEX gold futures, creating uncertainty about future tariff policies [1] - The upcoming talks between Russian President Putin and U.S. President Trump are seen as potential factors influencing precious metal prices [2] - Gold prices have recently tested significant resistance levels, with a need to confirm a breakout above $3,400 per ounce to sustain upward momentum [2][3]

Economic Indicators - The US services PMI stagnated at 50.1 in July, down from 50.8 in June, significantly below the market expectation of 51.5[3] - The manufacturing PMI fell to 48 in July, down from 49 in June, also below the expected 49.5, indicating a contraction in the manufacturing sector[4] - The employment index in the services sector dropped to 46.4, indicating a significant contraction in hiring[4] Inflation and Employment - The price index for services rose to 69.9, close to levels seen at the end of 2022, indicating heightened inflationary pressures[4] - The expected CPI growth may rebound, complicating the Federal Reserve's efforts to balance employment and inflation[3] - The unemployment rate is projected to rise slightly in Q3, with inflation expected to rebound, leading to potential interest rate cuts in October and December[3] Market Expectations - Following the PMI data release, market expectations for interest rate cuts decreased by 5 basis points to 58 basis points for the year[3] - The Federal Reserve is anticipated to maintain interest rates in September, with potential cuts in October and December, targeting a year-end policy rate of 3.75%-4%[3]

Core Viewpoint - The tin market is experiencing narrow fluctuations with the main contract rising by 0.3% to 266,940 yuan/ton, influenced by macroeconomic concerns regarding the U.S. economy and weak downstream demand [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply of tin from Myanmar has not yet recovered, with mining approvals in the Wa region affected by the rainy season and preparatory work, leading to a prolonged recovery period for imports [1] - In Yunnan, raw material shortages remain severe, with smelters' inventories generally below 30 days, resulting in intense competition for tin ore procurement and high processing costs for low-grade ores [1] - Some companies are preparing for production halts to clear intermediate products, while production has slightly increased due to the completion of maintenance [1] - Downstream orders continue to decline, with the third quarter being a traditional low season for consumption, leading to reduced orders in home appliances and significant drops in photovoltaic orders [1] Market Sentiment and Inventory Levels - Social inventory has been rising, and after price increases, downstream purchasing has become cautious, with many buyers placing low orders and adopting a wait-and-see approach [1] - Recent commentary from New Lake Futures indicates that the current weak consumption trend is expected to continue, with no significant changes in supply, and domestic inventories are on the rise while LME inventories remain low [2] - The short-term outlook suggests a dual weakness in supply and demand, with tin prices likely to experience repeated fluctuations [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The short - term trade agreement dispute has resurfaced, increasing the demand for hedging, and the risk of stagflation in the US economy has increased, with the weakening employment leading to a rebound in the expectation of interest rate cuts. It is expected that precious metals will be volatile and strong in the short term, oscillate at a high level in the medium term, and rise in steps in the long term [1]. - The gold price trend is the anchor for the silver price. In terms of capital, the net long position of CFTC silver and the iShare silver ETF have slightly reduced their positions. In terms of inventory, the recent visible inventory of silver has slightly increased [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Core Logic**: Short - term trade agreement disputes increase hedging demand; the risk of US economic stagflation rises, and the weak employment situation leads to a rebound in interest - rate cut expectations. The new round of tariffs by Trump has caused a global stock market crash, and many countries are seeking renegotiation. The weak US employment growth in July and the significant downward revision of non - farm payrolls in the previous two months have increased the possibility of the Fed cutting interest rates in September. The market's expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut probability in September has soared from about 40% to about 80%, and the expected number of interest - rate cuts within the year has increased from 1 to 3. The US dollar index and US bond yields have fallen under pressure. The CRB commodity index's rebound is under pressure, and the strong RMB suppresses domestic prices [1]. - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy on dips. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [2]. - **Data Summary**: International prices such as Comex gold and London gold have increased, and domestic prices like Shanghai gold and gold T + D have also risen. There are changes in positions, inventories, and other aspects. For example, the position of Comex gold has decreased by 0.73% compared with the previous week, and the inventory of Comex gold has decreased by 1.08% [2]. - **Net Position Ranking**: In the net position ranking of Shanghai gold of futures companies' members on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, the net long positions of the top 10 companies in total increased by 7,617, and the net short positions decreased by 133 [3]. Silver - **Core Logic**: The gold price trend is the anchor for the silver price. There are slight reductions in the net long position of CFTC silver and the iShare silver ETF, and a slight increase in recent visible inventory [5]. - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy on dips. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [6]. - **Data Summary**: International prices such as Comex silver and London silver have changed, and domestic prices like Shanghai silver and silver T + D have also adjusted. There are also changes in positions, inventories, etc. For example, the position of Comex silver has decreased by 1.93% compared with the previous week, and the visible inventory has increased by 0.46% [6]. - **Net Position Ranking**: In the net position ranking of Shanghai silver of futures companies' members on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, the net long positions of the top 10 companies in total decreased by 2,778, and the net short positions increased by 5,610 [7]. Fundamental Key Data - **Monetary Attributes**: The federal funds target rate, discount rate, and reserve balance rate have all decreased by 0.25%. The Fed's total assets have decreased by 0.00%. There are also changes in indicators such as M2, ten - year US Treasury real yield, and US dollar index [8]. - **Inflation in the US**: Indicators such as CPI, core CPI, and PCE price index have changed. For example, the year - on - year CPI has increased by 0.30% [10]. - **US Economic Growth**: GDP has changed both year - on - year and quarter - on - quarter. The unemployment rate has increased by 0.10%, and other labor - market indicators have also adjusted [10]. - **US Real Estate Market**: The NAHB housing market index has increased by 3.13%, while new home sales have decreased by 19.64% [10]. - **US Consumption**: Retail sales, personal consumption expenditures, and other indicators have changed. For example, the year - on - year retail sales have decreased by 1.84% [10]. - **US Industry**: The industrial production index has increased both year - on - year and month - on - month, and the capacity utilization rate has increased by 0.16% [10]. - **US Trade**: Exports and imports have changed both year - on - year and month - on - month, and the trade balance has decreased by 18.69% [10]. - **US Economic Surveys**: The Michigan consumer confidence index has increased by 9.50%, while the small - and - medium - sized enterprise optimism index has decreased by 0.20% [10]. - **Central Bank Gold Reserves**: The gold reserves of China, the US, and the world have their own changes, and the proportion of gold in foreign exchange reserves has also adjusted. For example, the global proportion of gold in foreign exchange reserves has increased by 4.11% [12]. - **Hedging Attributes**: The geopolitical risk index has increased by 51.84%, and the VIX index has decreased by 5.54% [12]. - **Commodity Attributes**: The CRB commodity index has decreased by 2.70%, and the offshore RMB has increased by 0.65% [12]. Fed's Latest Interest Rate Expectations The probability of the Fed's interest - rate cuts in different periods from September 2025 to December 2026 is presented in the table, showing the changing trends of market expectations for interest - rate cuts [13].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term trade war has entered a new stage, with risks of economic recession and geopolitical changes still existing. The risk of stagflation in the US economy has increased, and strong employment and inflation are suppressing the expectation of interest rate cuts [1]. - Gold is expected to be volatile and bullish in the short term, oscillate at a high level in the medium term, and rise step - by - step in the long term [1]. - The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. In terms of capital, CFTC silver net long positions and iShare silver ETF have resumed adding positions. In terms of inventory, the recent visible inventory of silver has slightly decreased [4]. - For investors, the strategy is that conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Price Performance**: Today, precious metals were volatile and bullish. The main contract of Shanghai Gold closed up 0.90%, and the main contract of Shanghai Silver closed up 1.16%. International and domestic gold prices showed varying degrees of increase, such as the Comex gold main contract closing price rising 0.99% from the previous day and 3.41% from last week [1][2]. - **Core Logic**: Short - term trade war risks, stagflation risks in the US economy, and strong employment and inflation suppressing interest rate cut expectations [1]. - **Attributes Analysis** - **Safe - haven Attribute**: Trump has escalated the trade war, the prospect of the EU - US trade agreement is worrying, and the EU is considering using the "nuclear option" to counter the US. China and the US will restart trade talks in Sweden next week [1]. - **Monetary Attribute**: US economic data has weakened, the start of single - family homes has dropped to the lowest level in 11 months, and building permits have also decreased significantly. The market expects the Fed's next interest rate cut to be in September, and the expected total interest rate cut space in 2025 has fallen back to around 50 basis points. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields have fallen under pressure [1]. - **Commodity Attribute**: The rebound of the CRB commodity index is under pressure, and the strong RMB suppresses domestic prices [1]. - **Position and Inventory Data**: Comex gold and Shanghai Gold main contract positions have increased, while some inventories have decreased, such as the Comex gold inventory decreasing by 1.08% compared to last week [2]. - **Net Position Ranking**: The top 10 net long and net short positions of futures company members of Shanghai Gold Futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange are listed, showing changes in positions of different members [3]. Silver - **Price Performance**: International and domestic silver prices also showed certain trends. For example, the Comex silver main contract closing price rose 1.07% from the previous day and 4.41% from last week [5]. - **Fundamental Analysis**: The price of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. CFTC silver net long positions and iShare silver ETF have resumed adding positions, and the recent visible inventory of silver has slightly decreased [4]. - **Position and Inventory Data**: Comex silver and some domestic silver positions have changed, and the visible inventory has decreased slightly [5]. - **Net Position Ranking**: The top 10 net long and net short positions of futures company members of Shanghai Silver Futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange are presented, with changes in positions of different members [6]. Fundamental Key Data - **Fed - related Data**: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate, the discount rate, and the reserve balance interest rate have all decreased by 0.25 percentage points compared to the previous value. The Fed's total assets have decreased slightly, and M2 has increased by 0.37% year - on - year [7]. - **US Economic Data**: Various economic indicators such as inflation, economic growth, labor market, real estate market, consumption, and trade have shown different trends. For example, the 10 - year US Treasury real yield has decreased, and the GDP annualized growth rate has decreased [9]. - **Other Data**: Central bank gold reserves in China, the US, and the world remain stable. The proportion of different currencies in IMF foreign exchange reserves has changed, and the gold/foreign exchange reserve ratio has increased. Geopolitical risk and VIX indices have decreased, and the CRB commodity index has shown a slight change [10]. - **Fed Interest Rate Expectation**: According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of different interest rate ranges at different Fed meeting dates in the future is presented, showing the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate adjustment [11].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold is expected to be volatile and bullish in the short - term, oscillate at a high level in the medium - term, and rise step - by - step in the long - term. The core logic is that the short - term trade war has entered a new stage, with risks of economic recession and geopolitical changes still existing. The risk of stagflation in the US economy has increased, and strong employment and inflation are suppressing the expectation of interest rate cuts. [1] - The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. In terms of capital, CFTC silver net long positions and iShare silver ETF have resumed adding positions. In terms of inventory, the recent visible inventory of silver has decreased slightly. [5] - For both gold and silver, the strategy is for conservative investors to wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy on dips. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels. [2][6] Summary by Related Catalogs Gold Price Performance - International prices: Comex gold主力合约收盘价 is $3355.50 per ounce, up $10.10 (0.30%) from the previous day and down $14.80 (-0.44%) from the previous week. London gold is $3355.10 per ounce, up $36.60 (1.10%) from the previous day and up $3.00 (0.09%) from the previous week. - Domestic prices: The closing price of the Shanghai Gold Exchange's main contract is 781.70 yuan per gram, up 4.68 yuan (0.60%) from the previous day and up 0.30 yuan (0.04%) from the previous week. The closing price of gold T + D is 777.00 yuan per gram, up 3.63 yuan (0.47%) from the previous day and down 0.46 yuan (-0.06%) from the previous week. [2] Position and Inventory - Position: Comex gold position is 448,531 lots (100 ounces per lot), an increase of 10,869 lots (2.48%) from the previous week. The position of the Shanghai Gold Exchange's main contract is 211,239 lots (kilograms per lot), an increase of 8,952 lots (4.43%) from the previous day and an increase of 20,156 lots (10.55%) from the previous week. The position of gold TD is 205,042 lots (kilograms per lot), an increase of 590 lots (0.29%) from the previous day and a decrease of 9,956 lots (-4.63%) from the previous week. - Inventory: LBMA inventory is 8,598 tons, unchanged. Comex gold inventory is 1,152 tons, a decrease of 13 tons (-1.08%) from the previous week. The inventory of the Shanghai Gold Exchange is 18 tons, an increase of 0 tons (1.57%) from the previous day and an increase of 0 tons (1.32%) from the previous week. [2] Net Position Ranking of Futures Companies - Among the top 10 net long positions of futures companies on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, the top 5 total 110,442 lots, an increase of 2,896 lots (25.71%); the top 10 total 139,355 lots, an increase of 2,304 lots (32.44%); the top 20 total 167,690 lots, an increase of 4,891 lots (39.04%). - Among the top 10 net short positions of futures companies on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, the top 5 total 14,565 lots, an increase of 494 lots (3.39%); the top 10 total 20,464 lots, an increase of 560 lots (4.76%); the top 20 total 24,576 lots, an increase of 599 lots (5.72%). [3] Silver Price Performance - International prices: Comex silver's main contract closing price is $38.43 per ounce, down $0.01 (-0.03%) from the previous day and down $0.65 (-1.66%) from the previous week. London silver is $38.27 per ounce, up $0.52 (1.36%) from the previous day and up $0.77 (2.05%) from the previous week. - Domestic prices: The closing price of the Shanghai Silver Exchange's main contract is 9,271.00 yuan per kilogram, down 2.00 yuan (-0.02%) from the previous day and up 64.00 yuan (0.70%) from the previous week. The closing price of silver T + D is 9,226.00 yuan per kilogram, up 15.00 yuan (0.16%) from the previous day and up 54.00 yuan (0.59%) from the previous week. [6] Position and Inventory - Position: Comex silver position is 171,474 lots (5,000 ounces per lot), an increase of 8,671 lots (5.33%) from the previous week. The position of the Shanghai Silver Exchange's main contract is 7,013,010 lots (kilograms per lot), a decrease of 182,130 lots (-2.53%) from the previous day and an increase of 291,585 lots (4.34%) from the previous week. The position of silver TD is 3,370,304 lots (kilograms per lot), a decrease of 37,116 lots (-1.09%) from the previous day and an increase of 127,300 lots (3.93%) from the previous week. - Inventory: LBMA inventory is 23,791 tons, an increase of 424 tons (1.81%) from the previous week. Comex silver inventory is 15,464 tons, an increase of 17 tons (0.00%) from the previous day and an increase of 72 tons (0.47%) from the previous week. The inventory of the Shanghai Silver Exchange is 1,204 tons, a decrease of 20 tons (-1.59%) from the previous week. The total visible inventory is 41,793 tons, a decrease of 75 tons (-0.18%) from the previous day and a decrease of 20 tons (-0.05%) from the previous week. [6] Net Position Ranking of Futures Companies - Among the top 10 net long positions of futures companies on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, the top 5 total 127,796 lots, an increase of 1,152 lots (12.80%); the top 10 total 176,685 lots, an increase of 3,499 lots (17.70%); the top 20 total 235,618 lots, an increase of 2,698 lots (23.60%). - Among the top 10 net short positions of futures companies on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, the top 5 total 72,195 lots, a decrease of 890 lots (7.23%); the top 10 total 94,674 lots, an increase of 7 lots (9.48%); the top 20 total 118,304 lots, an increase of 462 lots (11.85%). [7] Fundamental Key Data Monetary Attributes - Federal funds target rate upper limit is 4.50%, a decrease of 0.25 percentage points. The discount rate is 4.50%, a decrease of 0.25 percentage points. The reserve balance interest rate (IORB) is 4.40%, a decrease of 0.25 percentage points. The total assets of the Federal Reserve are 6710.669 billion US dollars, a decrease of 25.67 billion US dollars (-0.00%). M2 year - on - year growth rate is 4.50%, an increase of 0.06 percentage points. [8] Other Key Indicators - 10 - year US Treasury real yield is 2.59%, a decrease of 0.02 percentage points (-0.77%) from the previous day and a decrease of 0.01 percentage points (-0.38%) from the previous week. The US dollar index is 98.47, a decrease of 0.17 points (-0.17%) from the previous day and an increase of 0.61 points (0.62%) from the previous week. The US Treasury yield spread (3 - month - 10 - year) is 0.52, an increase of 0.02 points (4.00%) from the previous day and unchanged from the previous week. [8] Inflation, Economic Growth, and Labor Market - US inflation indicators such as CPI, core CPI, PCE price index, and core PCE price index have shown certain changes. US economic growth indicators such as GDP, unemployment rate, and non - farm employment have also changed. The labor market indicators such as labor participation rate, average hourly wage growth rate, and weekly working hours have different trends. [10] Central Bank Gold Reserves and Other Data - Central bank gold reserves of China, the US, and the world have different situations. The proportion of the US dollar, euro, and RMB in IMF foreign exchange reserves has changed. The ratio of gold to foreign exchange reserves globally, in China, and in the US has also changed. [11] Risk and Market Indicators - The geopolitical risk index is 132.88, an increase of 24.41 points (22.50%) from the previous day and a decrease of 59.95 points (-31.09%) from the previous week. The VIX index is 16.83, an increase of 0.42 points (2.56%) from the previous day and a decrease of 0.37 points (-2.15%) from the previous week. The CRB commodity index is 304.79, a decrease of 1.33 points (-0.43%) from the previous day and an increase of 2.09 points (0.69%) from the previous week. The offshore RMB exchange rate is 7.1812, unchanged from the previous day and an increase of 0.0074 points (0.10%) from the previous week. [11] Fed Interest Rate Expectations - According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of different interest rate ranges at different Fed meeting dates from 2025/7/30 to 2026/12/9 is provided. [12]