美联储降息的靴子终于落地了，降息 25 个基点。 那么这次的降息有何特殊性呢？对于我们普通老百姓有什么影响？全球经济下一步会怎么走？我们一起来分析分析。 美联储为什么要重启降息？ 我想有两个原因，台面上的原因就是最近的美国就业的数据不太好。当然这个很复杂，因为美国换了就业的统计指标，谁也搞不清楚，但是美联储感到了压 力，所以说要重视就业。 我认为更深层次的、更根本的一个原因，就是美联储现在扛不过白宫的压力，现在美联储的独立性受到了挑战。 当然这里面我认为他有风险，就不就业这个事情先不聊，这数据不清楚，但是你现在不能 100% 肯定的讲，你是通货膨胀下降了，通货膨胀还有上升的风 险。 我到美国转了一圈，我最主要的一个感觉，就是劳动力市场非常吃紧，就是有工作找不到人干，很多人可能不想干活了，不知什么原因，干活的人大量的都 是英语讲不好的。 特朗普要求你必须给我降息，必须要保证我经济能够稳定，股市能够稳定，这是潜台词，保证明年11月的中期选举我能够给一份期中考试的答卷，这是压 力。 最近白宫对美联储搞了很多动作，包括美联储的一个理事，她的资格问题，个人背景调查，直到这次议息会前两天，各党派还在为参会的人选争争斗斗。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Gold and silver prices show different trends today, with gold strong and silver weak. The short - term trade agreements are reached in batches, leading to a decline in risk - aversion demand. The risk of stagflation in the US economy increases, employment weakens, inflation is moderate, and the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut rebounds. It is expected that precious metals will be oscillating strongly in the short - term, oscillating at a high level in the medium - term, and rising step - by - step in the long - term [1]. - The gold price trend is the anchor of the silver price. In terms of capital, CFTC silver net long positions and iShare silver ETF have slightly reduced their positions. In terms of inventory, the recent explicit inventory of silver has slightly increased [6]. Summary by Directory Gold - **Price Performance**: Comex gold and London gold have risen, while domestic gold prices such as the closing price of the Shanghai Gold Exchange's main contract and gold T + D have also shown different degrees of increase. The basis and spreads, and ratios have also changed [2]. - **Position and Inventory**: Comex gold and Shanghai Gold Exchange's main contract positions have decreased, while gold T + D positions have increased. LBMA inventory remains unchanged, Comex gold inventory has decreased, and Shanghai Gold Exchange's gold inventory has increased [2]. - **Strategy**: Conservative investors are advised to wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended [3]. - **Net Position Ranking**: The top 10 net long and net short positions of futures companies' members in the Shanghai Gold Exchange have different changes in net positions and daily ratios [4]. Silver - **Price Performance**: The closing price of the Comex silver main contract has risen, while the London silver price has fallen. Domestic silver prices such as the closing price of the Shanghai Silver Exchange's main contract and silver T + D have decreased [7]. - **Position and Inventory**: Comex silver positions have increased, while Shanghai Silver Exchange's main contract positions have decreased, and silver T + D positions have increased. Silver inventories in different places have different changes, and the total explicit inventory has slightly decreased [7]. - **Strategy**: Conservative investors are advised to wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended [7]. - **Net Position Ranking**: The top 10 net long and net short positions of futures companies' members in the Shanghai Silver Exchange have different changes in net positions and daily ratios [8]. Fundamental Key Data - **Fed - related Data**: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate, the discount rate, and the reserve balance interest rate have all decreased by 0.25. The Fed's total assets have decreased slightly, and M2 has increased year - on - year [9]. - **Other Key Indicators**: The ten - year US Treasury real yield, the US dollar index, and the US Treasury yield spreads have all changed. US inflation, economic growth, labor market, real estate market, consumption, industry, trade, and economic survey data have also shown different trends. Central bank gold reserves in different countries and regions have different changes, and some currency - related ratios have also changed [9][11][13]. - **Fed Interest Rate Expectation**: According to the CME FedWatch tool, the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in different meeting dates from September 2025 to December 2026 is different [14].

Group 1 - The price volatility of precious metals is expected to increase in the future due to recent changes in U.S. tariffs on gold bars and ongoing economic uncertainties [1][2] - The recent rise in gold prices is attributed to weak U.S. employment data and concerns over stagflation, which have driven safe-haven demand [1][3] - The long-term bullish trend for gold remains intact despite short-term fluctuations, supported by ongoing global economic uncertainties and rising public debt [2][3] Group 2 - The recent imposition of tariffs on Swiss gold bars has led to increased premiums in COMEX gold futures, creating uncertainty about future tariff policies [1] - The upcoming talks between Russian President Putin and U.S. President Trump are seen as potential factors influencing precious metal prices [2] - Gold prices have recently tested significant resistance levels, with a need to confirm a breakout above $3,400 per ounce to sustain upward momentum [2][3]

Economic Indicators - The US services PMI stagnated at 50.1 in July, down from 50.8 in June, significantly below the market expectation of 51.5[3] - The manufacturing PMI fell to 48 in July, down from 49 in June, also below the expected 49.5, indicating a contraction in the manufacturing sector[4] - The employment index in the services sector dropped to 46.4, indicating a significant contraction in hiring[4] Inflation and Employment - The price index for services rose to 69.9, close to levels seen at the end of 2022, indicating heightened inflationary pressures[4] - The expected CPI growth may rebound, complicating the Federal Reserve's efforts to balance employment and inflation[3] - The unemployment rate is projected to rise slightly in Q3, with inflation expected to rebound, leading to potential interest rate cuts in October and December[3] Market Expectations - Following the PMI data release, market expectations for interest rate cuts decreased by 5 basis points to 58 basis points for the year[3] - The Federal Reserve is anticipated to maintain interest rates in September, with potential cuts in October and December, targeting a year-end policy rate of 3.75%-4%[3]

沪锡窄幅波动，主力合约收涨0.3%，报266940元/吨。美国7月ISM服务业PMI降温，叠加此前非农数据 大幅低于预期，市场定价美国经济滞涨风险，宏观情绪仍有反复。锡基本面保持稳定，原料供应维持偏 紧格局，下游需求淡季偏弱，基本面驱动有限，锡价维持震荡格局。 缅甸锡矿供应尚未恢复，虽然近期缅甸佤邦地区矿产开采证已审批完毕，但受雨季影响叠加复产准备等 前期工作，缅甸锡矿进口量恢复仍需较长时间。据SMM，云南地区原料短缺依旧严峻，冶炼厂原料库 存普遍低于30天，锡矿采购竞争白热化，低品位矿加工成本高企，叠加电力成本上升，企业生产意愿下 滑。部分企业准备停产检修，清理各个冶炼环节中间品，产量小幅增涨。江西废料回收受阻，粗锡供应 不足直接导致精炼产量难有提升，不过，部分企业检修完毕，产量有所回升。 下游订单水平维持下滑态势，且三季度为下游消费水平淡季，锡相关消费较往年皆有下滑。家电排产订 单不足，光伏订单环比下滑严重，整体需求维持弱势，大部分企业生产接货仅维持刚需，订单差强人 意。近期社会库存持续增加，价格推涨后锡下游拿货谨慎，大部分下游买货挂单较低，观望情绪愈发浓 厚，部分选择后点价接货，现货市场整体交投表现偏淡 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The short - term trade agreement dispute has resurfaced, increasing the demand for hedging, and the risk of stagflation in the US economy has increased, with the weakening employment leading to a rebound in the expectation of interest rate cuts. It is expected that precious metals will be volatile and strong in the short term, oscillate at a high level in the medium term, and rise in steps in the long term [1]. - The gold price trend is the anchor for the silver price. In terms of capital, the net long position of CFTC silver and the iShare silver ETF have slightly reduced their positions. In terms of inventory, the recent visible inventory of silver has slightly increased [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Core Logic**: Short - term trade agreement disputes increase hedging demand; the risk of US economic stagflation rises, and the weak employment situation leads to a rebound in interest - rate cut expectations. The new round of tariffs by Trump has caused a global stock market crash, and many countries are seeking renegotiation. The weak US employment growth in July and the significant downward revision of non - farm payrolls in the previous two months have increased the possibility of the Fed cutting interest rates in September. The market's expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut probability in September has soared from about 40% to about 80%, and the expected number of interest - rate cuts within the year has increased from 1 to 3. The US dollar index and US bond yields have fallen under pressure. The CRB commodity index's rebound is under pressure, and the strong RMB suppresses domestic prices [1]. - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy on dips. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [2]. - **Data Summary**: International prices such as Comex gold and London gold have increased, and domestic prices like Shanghai gold and gold T + D have also risen. There are changes in positions, inventories, and other aspects. For example, the position of Comex gold has decreased by 0.73% compared with the previous week, and the inventory of Comex gold has decreased by 1.08% [2]. - **Net Position Ranking**: In the net position ranking of Shanghai gold of futures companies' members on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, the net long positions of the top 10 companies in total increased by 7,617, and the net short positions decreased by 133 [3]. Silver - **Core Logic**: The gold price trend is the anchor for the silver price. There are slight reductions in the net long position of CFTC silver and the iShare silver ETF, and a slight increase in recent visible inventory [5]. - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy on dips. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [6]. - **Data Summary**: International prices such as Comex silver and London silver have changed, and domestic prices like Shanghai silver and silver T + D have also adjusted. There are also changes in positions, inventories, etc. For example, the position of Comex silver has decreased by 1.93% compared with the previous week, and the visible inventory has increased by 0.46% [6]. - **Net Position Ranking**: In the net position ranking of Shanghai silver of futures companies' members on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, the net long positions of the top 10 companies in total decreased by 2,778, and the net short positions increased by 5,610 [7]. Fundamental Key Data - **Monetary Attributes**: The federal funds target rate, discount rate, and reserve balance rate have all decreased by 0.25%. The Fed's total assets have decreased by 0.00%. There are also changes in indicators such as M2, ten - year US Treasury real yield, and US dollar index [8]. - **Inflation in the US**: Indicators such as CPI, core CPI, and PCE price index have changed. For example, the year - on - year CPI has increased by 0.30% [10]. - **US Economic Growth**: GDP has changed both year - on - year and quarter - on - quarter. The unemployment rate has increased by 0.10%, and other labor - market indicators have also adjusted [10]. - **US Real Estate Market**: The NAHB housing market index has increased by 3.13%, while new home sales have decreased by 19.64% [10]. - **US Consumption**: Retail sales, personal consumption expenditures, and other indicators have changed. For example, the year - on - year retail sales have decreased by 1.84% [10]. - **US Industry**: The industrial production index has increased both year - on - year and month - on - month, and the capacity utilization rate has increased by 0.16% [10]. - **US Trade**: Exports and imports have changed both year - on - year and month - on - month, and the trade balance has decreased by 18.69% [10]. - **US Economic Surveys**: The Michigan consumer confidence index has increased by 9.50%, while the small - and - medium - sized enterprise optimism index has decreased by 0.20% [10]. - **Central Bank Gold Reserves**: The gold reserves of China, the US, and the world have their own changes, and the proportion of gold in foreign exchange reserves has also adjusted. For example, the global proportion of gold in foreign exchange reserves has increased by 4.11% [12]. - **Hedging Attributes**: The geopolitical risk index has increased by 51.84%, and the VIX index has decreased by 5.54% [12]. - **Commodity Attributes**: The CRB commodity index has decreased by 2.70%, and the offshore RMB has increased by 0.65% [12]. Fed's Latest Interest Rate Expectations The probability of the Fed's interest - rate cuts in different periods from September 2025 to December 2026 is presented in the table, showing the changing trends of market expectations for interest - rate cuts [13].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term trade war has entered a new stage, with risks of economic recession and geopolitical changes still existing. The risk of stagflation in the US economy has increased, and strong employment and inflation are suppressing the expectation of interest rate cuts [1]. - Gold is expected to be volatile and bullish in the short term, oscillate at a high level in the medium term, and rise step - by - step in the long term [1]. - The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. In terms of capital, CFTC silver net long positions and iShare silver ETF have resumed adding positions. In terms of inventory, the recent visible inventory of silver has slightly decreased [4]. - For investors, the strategy is that conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Price Performance**: Today, precious metals were volatile and bullish. The main contract of Shanghai Gold closed up 0.90%, and the main contract of Shanghai Silver closed up 1.16%. International and domestic gold prices showed varying degrees of increase, such as the Comex gold main contract closing price rising 0.99% from the previous day and 3.41% from last week [1][2]. - **Core Logic**: Short - term trade war risks, stagflation risks in the US economy, and strong employment and inflation suppressing interest rate cut expectations [1]. - **Attributes Analysis** - **Safe - haven Attribute**: Trump has escalated the trade war, the prospect of the EU - US trade agreement is worrying, and the EU is considering using the "nuclear option" to counter the US. China and the US will restart trade talks in Sweden next week [1]. - **Monetary Attribute**: US economic data has weakened, the start of single - family homes has dropped to the lowest level in 11 months, and building permits have also decreased significantly. The market expects the Fed's next interest rate cut to be in September, and the expected total interest rate cut space in 2025 has fallen back to around 50 basis points. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields have fallen under pressure [1]. - **Commodity Attribute**: The rebound of the CRB commodity index is under pressure, and the strong RMB suppresses domestic prices [1]. - **Position and Inventory Data**: Comex gold and Shanghai Gold main contract positions have increased, while some inventories have decreased, such as the Comex gold inventory decreasing by 1.08% compared to last week [2]. - **Net Position Ranking**: The top 10 net long and net short positions of futures company members of Shanghai Gold Futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange are listed, showing changes in positions of different members [3]. Silver - **Price Performance**: International and domestic silver prices also showed certain trends. For example, the Comex silver main contract closing price rose 1.07% from the previous day and 4.41% from last week [5]. - **Fundamental Analysis**: The price of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. CFTC silver net long positions and iShare silver ETF have resumed adding positions, and the recent visible inventory of silver has slightly decreased [4]. - **Position and Inventory Data**: Comex silver and some domestic silver positions have changed, and the visible inventory has decreased slightly [5]. - **Net Position Ranking**: The top 10 net long and net short positions of futures company members of Shanghai Silver Futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange are presented, with changes in positions of different members [6]. Fundamental Key Data - **Fed - related Data**: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate, the discount rate, and the reserve balance interest rate have all decreased by 0.25 percentage points compared to the previous value. The Fed's total assets have decreased slightly, and M2 has increased by 0.37% year - on - year [7]. - **US Economic Data**: Various economic indicators such as inflation, economic growth, labor market, real estate market, consumption, and trade have shown different trends. For example, the 10 - year US Treasury real yield has decreased, and the GDP annualized growth rate has decreased [9]. - **Other Data**: Central bank gold reserves in China, the US, and the world remain stable. The proportion of different currencies in IMF foreign exchange reserves has changed, and the gold/foreign exchange reserve ratio has increased. Geopolitical risk and VIX indices have decreased, and the CRB commodity index has shown a slight change [10]. - **Fed Interest Rate Expectation**: According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of different interest rate ranges at different Fed meeting dates in the future is presented, showing the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate adjustment [11].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold is expected to be volatile and bullish in the short - term, oscillate at a high level in the medium - term, and rise step - by - step in the long - term. The core logic is that the short - term trade war has entered a new stage, with risks of economic recession and geopolitical changes still existing. The risk of stagflation in the US economy has increased, and strong employment and inflation are suppressing the expectation of interest rate cuts. [1] - The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. In terms of capital, CFTC silver net long positions and iShare silver ETF have resumed adding positions. In terms of inventory, the recent visible inventory of silver has decreased slightly. [5] - For both gold and silver, the strategy is for conservative investors to wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy on dips. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels. [2][6] Summary by Related Catalogs Gold Price Performance - International prices: Comex gold主力合约收盘价 is $3355.50 per ounce, up $10.10 (0.30%) from the previous day and down $14.80 (-0.44%) from the previous week. London gold is $3355.10 per ounce, up $36.60 (1.10%) from the previous day and up $3.00 (0.09%) from the previous week. - Domestic prices: The closing price of the Shanghai Gold Exchange's main contract is 781.70 yuan per gram, up 4.68 yuan (0.60%) from the previous day and up 0.30 yuan (0.04%) from the previous week. The closing price of gold T + D is 777.00 yuan per gram, up 3.63 yuan (0.47%) from the previous day and down 0.46 yuan (-0.06%) from the previous week. [2] Position and Inventory - Position: Comex gold position is 448,531 lots (100 ounces per lot), an increase of 10,869 lots (2.48%) from the previous week. The position of the Shanghai Gold Exchange's main contract is 211,239 lots (kilograms per lot), an increase of 8,952 lots (4.43%) from the previous day and an increase of 20,156 lots (10.55%) from the previous week. The position of gold TD is 205,042 lots (kilograms per lot), an increase of 590 lots (0.29%) from the previous day and a decrease of 9,956 lots (-4.63%) from the previous week. - Inventory: LBMA inventory is 8,598 tons, unchanged. Comex gold inventory is 1,152 tons, a decrease of 13 tons (-1.08%) from the previous week. The inventory of the Shanghai Gold Exchange is 18 tons, an increase of 0 tons (1.57%) from the previous day and an increase of 0 tons (1.32%) from the previous week. [2] Net Position Ranking of Futures Companies - Among the top 10 net long positions of futures companies on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, the top 5 total 110,442 lots, an increase of 2,896 lots (25.71%); the top 10 total 139,355 lots, an increase of 2,304 lots (32.44%); the top 20 total 167,690 lots, an increase of 4,891 lots (39.04%). - Among the top 10 net short positions of futures companies on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, the top 5 total 14,565 lots, an increase of 494 lots (3.39%); the top 10 total 20,464 lots, an increase of 560 lots (4.76%); the top 20 total 24,576 lots, an increase of 599 lots (5.72%). [3] Silver Price Performance - International prices: Comex silver's main contract closing price is $38.43 per ounce, down $0.01 (-0.03%) from the previous day and down $0.65 (-1.66%) from the previous week. London silver is $38.27 per ounce, up $0.52 (1.36%) from the previous day and up $0.77 (2.05%) from the previous week. - Domestic prices: The closing price of the Shanghai Silver Exchange's main contract is 9,271.00 yuan per kilogram, down 2.00 yuan (-0.02%) from the previous day and up 64.00 yuan (0.70%) from the previous week. The closing price of silver T + D is 9,226.00 yuan per kilogram, up 15.00 yuan (0.16%) from the previous day and up 54.00 yuan (0.59%) from the previous week. [6] Position and Inventory - Position: Comex silver position is 171,474 lots (5,000 ounces per lot), an increase of 8,671 lots (5.33%) from the previous week. The position of the Shanghai Silver Exchange's main contract is 7,013,010 lots (kilograms per lot), a decrease of 182,130 lots (-2.53%) from the previous day and an increase of 291,585 lots (4.34%) from the previous week. The position of silver TD is 3,370,304 lots (kilograms per lot), a decrease of 37,116 lots (-1.09%) from the previous day and an increase of 127,300 lots (3.93%) from the previous week. - Inventory: LBMA inventory is 23,791 tons, an increase of 424 tons (1.81%) from the previous week. Comex silver inventory is 15,464 tons, an increase of 17 tons (0.00%) from the previous day and an increase of 72 tons (0.47%) from the previous week. The inventory of the Shanghai Silver Exchange is 1,204 tons, a decrease of 20 tons (-1.59%) from the previous week. The total visible inventory is 41,793 tons, a decrease of 75 tons (-0.18%) from the previous day and a decrease of 20 tons (-0.05%) from the previous week. [6] Net Position Ranking of Futures Companies - Among the top 10 net long positions of futures companies on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, the top 5 total 127,796 lots, an increase of 1,152 lots (12.80%); the top 10 total 176,685 lots, an increase of 3,499 lots (17.70%); the top 20 total 235,618 lots, an increase of 2,698 lots (23.60%). - Among the top 10 net short positions of futures companies on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, the top 5 total 72,195 lots, a decrease of 890 lots (7.23%); the top 10 total 94,674 lots, an increase of 7 lots (9.48%); the top 20 total 118,304 lots, an increase of 462 lots (11.85%). [7] Fundamental Key Data Monetary Attributes - Federal funds target rate upper limit is 4.50%, a decrease of 0.25 percentage points. The discount rate is 4.50%, a decrease of 0.25 percentage points. The reserve balance interest rate (IORB) is 4.40%, a decrease of 0.25 percentage points. The total assets of the Federal Reserve are 6710.669 billion US dollars, a decrease of 25.67 billion US dollars (-0.00%). M2 year - on - year growth rate is 4.50%, an increase of 0.06 percentage points. [8] Other Key Indicators - 10 - year US Treasury real yield is 2.59%, a decrease of 0.02 percentage points (-0.77%) from the previous day and a decrease of 0.01 percentage points (-0.38%) from the previous week. The US dollar index is 98.47, a decrease of 0.17 points (-0.17%) from the previous day and an increase of 0.61 points (0.62%) from the previous week. The US Treasury yield spread (3 - month - 10 - year) is 0.52, an increase of 0.02 points (4.00%) from the previous day and unchanged from the previous week. [8] Inflation, Economic Growth, and Labor Market - US inflation indicators such as CPI, core CPI, PCE price index, and core PCE price index have shown certain changes. US economic growth indicators such as GDP, unemployment rate, and non - farm employment have also changed. The labor market indicators such as labor participation rate, average hourly wage growth rate, and weekly working hours have different trends. [10] Central Bank Gold Reserves and Other Data - Central bank gold reserves of China, the US, and the world have different situations. The proportion of the US dollar, euro, and RMB in IMF foreign exchange reserves has changed. The ratio of gold to foreign exchange reserves globally, in China, and in the US has also changed. [11] Risk and Market Indicators - The geopolitical risk index is 132.88, an increase of 24.41 points (22.50%) from the previous day and a decrease of 59.95 points (-31.09%) from the previous week. The VIX index is 16.83, an increase of 0.42 points (2.56%) from the previous day and a decrease of 0.37 points (-2.15%) from the previous week. The CRB commodity index is 304.79, a decrease of 1.33 points (-0.43%) from the previous day and an increase of 2.09 points (0.69%) from the previous week. The offshore RMB exchange rate is 7.1812, unchanged from the previous day and an increase of 0.0074 points (0.10%) from the previous week. [11] Fed Interest Rate Expectations - According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of different interest rate ranges at different Fed meeting dates from 2025/7/30 to 2026/12/9 is provided. [12]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No data provided on the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term trade war has entered a new stage, with risks of economic recession and geopolitical fluctuations remaining. The risk of stagflation in the US economy has increased, and strong employment and inflation are suppressing expectations of interest rate cuts. [1] - It is expected that precious metals will show a pattern of weak gold and strong silver in the short - term, high - level fluctuations in the medium - term, and a step - by - step upward trend in the long - term. [1] - The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. In terms of capital, the net long positions of CFTC silver and iShare silver ETF have been reduced again. In terms of inventory, the visible inventory of silver has slightly decreased recently. [4] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Gold - **Market Performance**: Today, precious metals fluctuated weakly. The main contract of Shanghai Gold closed down 0.03%, and the main contract of Shanghai Silver closed up 0.07%. [1] - **Core Logic**: In the short - term, there are risks of economic recession and geopolitical fluctuations. The risk of stagflation in the US economy has increased, and strong employment and inflation are suppressing expectations of interest rate cuts. [1] - **Attributes Analysis** - **Hedging Attribute**: Trump has escalated the trade war, and the EU has threatened to take counter - measures against US tariffs. Trump said he does not plan to fire Powell, which has alleviated market concerns. [1] - **Monetary Attribute**: The Fed's Beige Book shows that US economic activity has increased, but tariffs have brought price pressure, making the outlook pessimistic. US inflation in June remained resilient, but the year - on - year increase in core CPI was 2.9%, and the month - on - month increase was 0.2%, both lower than market expectations. The overall US employment growth was stronger than expected, and the number of initial jobless claims last week unexpectedly dropped to a seven - week low. Currently, the market expects the Fed's next interest rate cut to be in September, and the expected total interest rate cut space in 2025 has fallen back to around 50 basis points. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields fluctuated strongly. [1] - **Commodity Attribute**: The rebound of the CRB commodity index was under pressure, and the strong RMB suppressed domestic prices. [1] - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels. [2] 3.2 Silver - **Price Anchor**: The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. [4] - **Capital and Inventory**: In terms of capital, the net long positions of CFTC silver and iShare silver ETF have been reduced again. In terms of inventory, the visible inventory of silver has slightly decreased recently. [4] - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels. [5] 3.3 Fundamental Key Data - **Monetary Attribute Data**: The federal funds target rate upper limit is 4.50%, the discount rate is 4.50%, the reserve balance interest rate (IORB) is 4.40%, the Fed's total assets are 67132.36 billion US dollars, M2 year - on - year growth is 4.50%, the 10 - year US Treasury real yield is 2.61, the US dollar index is 98.32, the US Treasury yield spread (3 - month to 10 - year) is 0.53, etc. [7] - **Hedging Attribute Data**: The geopolitical risk index is 122.08, and the VIX index is 17.14. [10] - **Commodity Attribute Data**: The CRB commodity index is 303.15, and the offshore RMB exchange rate is 7.1842. [10] 3.4 Fed's Latest Interest Rate Expectations The probability distribution of the Fed's interest rate levels at different meetings from July 2025 to December 2026 is provided in the table, showing the market's expectations for the Fed's interest rate decisions at different times. [11]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Today, precious metals fluctuated weakly. The main contract of Shanghai Gold closed down 0.20%, and the main contract of Shanghai Silver closed down 0.35% [1]. - In the short - term, the trade war has entered a new stage, and the risks of economic recession and geopolitical changes still exist. The risk of stagflation in the US economy has increased, and strong employment suppresses the expectation of interest rate cuts [1]. - It is expected that precious metals will show a pattern of weak gold and strong silver in the short - term, high - level fluctuations in the medium - term, and a step - by - step upward trend in the long - term [1]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Gold - **Core Logic**: In the short - term, the trade war has entered a new stage, with risks of economic recession and geopolitical changes. The risk of stagflation in the US economy has increased, and strong employment suppresses the expectation of interest rate cuts [1]. - **Safe - haven Attribute**: Trump escalated the trade war, threatening to impose a 30% tariff on the EU and Mexico. The EU threatened counter - measures, and Trump said he was open to negotiations [1]. - **Monetary Attribute**: The US CPI in June increased by 2.7% year - on - year, the highest since February, in line with market expectations. The core CPI in June increased by 2.9% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month, both lower than market expectations. The overall US employment growth was stronger than expected, and the number of initial jobless claims last week unexpectedly dropped to a seven - week low. The market currently expects the Fed's next interest rate cut to be in September, and the expected total interest rate cut space in 2025 has fallen back to around 50 basis points. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields fluctuated strongly [1]. - **Commodity Attribute**: The CRB commodity index rebounded under pressure, and the strong RMB suppressed domestic prices [1]. - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [2]. 3.2 Silver - **Price Anchor**: The gold price trend is the anchor for the silver price [5]. - **Funding and Inventory**: CFTC silver net long positions and iShare silver ETF reduced positions again. Recently, the visible inventory of silver decreased slightly [5]. - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [6]. 3.3 Fundamental Key Data - **Federal Reserve - related Data**: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate is 4.50%, the discount rate is 4.50%, the reserve balance interest rate (IORB) is 4.40%, and the Fed's total assets are 67,132.36 billion US dollars. M2 increased by 4.50% year - on - year [8]. - **Bond and Currency - related Data**: The 10 - year US Treasury real yield is 2.63, the US dollar index is 98.63, the US Treasury yield spread (3 - month to 10 - year) is 0.47, the US - EU yield spread (10 - year bond yield) is 1.92, and the US - China yield spread (10 - year bond yield) is 3.34 [8][10]. - **Inflation Data**: The US CPI increased by 2.70% year - on - year and 0.30% month - on - month, and the core CPI increased by 2.90% year - on - year and 0.30% month - on - month [10]. - **Economic Growth Data**: The US GDP increased by 1.90% year - on - year (annualized) and decreased by 0.50% quarter - on - quarter (annualized), the unemployment rate is 4.10%, and non - farm payrolls increased by 14.70 million [10]. - **Labor Market Data**: The labor participation rate is 62.60%, the average hourly wage growth rate is 3.70%, and the number of initial jobless claims last week was 22.70 million [10]. - **Real Estate Market Data**: The NAHB housing market index is 32.00, existing home sales are 403.00 million units, new home sales are 56.00 million units, and new home starts are 115.20 million units [10]. - **Consumption Data**: Retail sales increased by 4.71% year - on - year and decreased by 0.22% month - on - month, and personal consumption expenditure increased by 4.55% year - on - year and decreased by 0.14% month - on - month [10]. - **Industrial Data**: The industrial production index increased by 0.60% year - on - year and decreased by 0.22% month - on - month, and the capacity utilization rate is 77.43% [10]. - **Central Bank Gold Reserves and Foreign Exchange Reserves**: China's central bank gold reserves are 2,298.55 tons, the US's are 8,133.46 tons, and the world's are 36,250.15 tons. The US dollar accounts for 57.80% of IMF foreign exchange reserves, the euro accounts for 19.83%, and the RMB accounts for 2.18% [10][11]. - **Safe - haven and Commodity Attributes**: The geopolitical risk index is 122.08, the VIX index is 17.52, the CRB commodity index is 302.70, and the offshore RMB exchange rate is 7.1738 [11]. - **Fed Interest Rate Expectations**: According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of different interest rate ranges at different Fed meetings from 2025 to 2026 is provided [12].