金属期权 2025-11-25 金属期权策略早报 | 卢品先 | 投研经理 | 从业资格号：F3047321 | 交易咨询号：Z0015541 | 邮箱：lupx@wkqh.cn | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄柯涵 | 期权研究员 | 从业资格号：F03138607 | 电话：0755-23375252 | 邮箱：huangkh@wkqh.cn | | 李仁君 | 产业服务 | 从业资格号：F03090207 | 交易咨询号：Z0016947 | 邮箱：lirj@wkqh.cn | 金属期权策略早报概要：（1）有色金属偏多上行，构建卖方中性波动率策略策略；（2）黑色系维持大幅度波动的 行情走势，适合构建做空波动率组合策略；（3）贵金属反弹回暖上升，构建牛市价差组合策略。 | 表1：标的期货市场概况 | | --- | | 期权品种 | 标的合约 | 最新价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 量变化 | 持仓量 | 仓变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | （%） ...

Core Insights - The equity market is experiencing a slight pullback, with the CSI All A Index down by 0.15% and trading volume at 1.93 trillion yuan, a decrease of 50.1 billion yuan compared to the previous Friday [1][2] - Despite the pullback, the market is not weak, as the decline in A-shares is less than that in Hong Kong stocks, indicating a recognition of current price levels by investors [2] - The market has shown a "fast rise and slow fall" pattern in November, with significant rebounds on November 5-6 and November 13, suggesting a willingness among funds to engage [2] Market Structure and Trends - The concentration of trading has improved, with the top 5% of trading volume accounting for 39.16%, indicating reduced structural risks [3] - The AI computing power index has rebounded by 2.46%, suggesting increased interest in this sector [3] - Southbound funds have shown a significant inflow into Alibaba, totaling 5.702 billion HKD from November 13-17, indicating a potential rebound in tech stocks [3] Bond Market Analysis - The bond market is experiencing narrow fluctuations, with the 10-year government bond yield slightly down to 1.80% [4] - The liquidity in the market is tightening due to tax payments and government bond issuances, leading to a rise in overnight rates [4][5] - The bond market's pricing is in a state of indecision, with the central bank's cautious stance on monetary policy influencing market sentiment [5] Commodity Market Insights - The domestic commodity market is showing significant differentiation, with lithium carbonate hitting the upper limit and other metals generally declining [6] - Lithium carbonate has surged by 9%, while precious metals like gold and silver have seen substantial declines of 3.09% and 4.08%, respectively [6][7] - The black metal sector is supported by strong fundamentals, with coking coal prices rising due to improved demand from steel mills [8] Future Outlook - The bond market is expected to continue its oscillation, with a focus on capturing excess returns from interest rate spreads [6] - The lithium sector is anticipated to remain strong due to optimistic supply-demand forecasts, although caution is advised regarding potential price corrections [7] - The black metal sector is likely to see continued support from supply constraints and recovering demand, despite current low profitability levels in steel production [8]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a metal option strategy morning report dated November 10, 2025, covering有色金属, precious metals, and black metals [1][2] - It provides option strategies and suggestions for selected metal varieties based on market analysis and option factor research [8] Group 2: Market Conditions Futures Market - The latest prices, changes, trading volumes, and open interests of various metal futures contracts are presented, showing different trends in each metal [3] Option Factors - The volume and open interest PCR, pressure and support levels, implied volatility, and historical volatility of each metal option are analyzed, providing insights into market sentiment and risk [4][5][6] Group 3: Option Strategies Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Build a short - volatility seller option portfolio and a spot hedging strategy [7] - **Aluminum**: Construct a bull spread of call options, a short call + put option portfolio, and a spot collar strategy [9] - **Zinc**: Build a short neutral call + put option portfolio and a spot collar strategy [9] - **Nickel**: Construct a short bearish call + put option portfolio and a spot covered call strategy [10] - **Tin**: Build a short - volatility strategy and a spot collar strategy [10] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Construct a short neutral call + put option portfolio and a spot long + put + call option strategy [11] Precious Metals - **Gold**: Build a short - volatility neutral option seller portfolio and a spot hedging strategy [12] Black Metals - **Rebar**: Build a short bearish call + put option portfolio and a spot covered call strategy [13] - **Iron Ore**: Build a short bearish call + put option portfolio and a spot collar strategy [13] - **Ferro - alloy**: Build a short - volatility strategy for manganese silicon [14] - **Industrial Silicon**: Build a short - volatility call + put option portfolio and a spot hedging strategy [14] - **Glass**: Build a short - volatility call + put option portfolio and a spot collar strategy [15] Group 4: Charts - Charts of price trends, option volume and open interest, PCR, implied volatility, and historical volatility for various metals are provided, visually presenting market changes [19][21][27][38][40][46]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the silicon manganese market, highlighting supply surplus, resilient demand, and weakening profits as key factors influencing price movements and market dynamics [4][6][9]. Group 1: Supply Dynamics - Supply levels have not decreased entering the fourth quarter, with high production willingness from producers due to previous price increases leading to hedging activities [6]. - There is a consensus on supply surplus, which is suppressing price rebound potential [6][8]. - The silicon manganese market is experiencing significant supply surplus, leading to lower market attention and price weakness [8][11]. Group 2: Demand Resilience - The crude steel production data from the China Iron and Steel Association indicates that production has remained stable year-on-year, suggesting steady demand for silicon manganese [9]. Group 3: Profitability Challenges - Silicon manganese profits are declining due to supply surplus and inherent industry challenges, particularly the difficulty of achieving "anti-involution" in a predominantly private enterprise sector [10][11]. - The competition between steel mills and manganese mines affects silicon manganese pricing, with steel mills' thin margins intensifying the price negotiation dynamics [11]. - The complete cash cost support for silicon manganese remains relatively strong, with a low point of 5350 and current cash costs at 5700, indicating a potential for price recovery when prices fall below cash costs [14].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For non - ferrous metals, construct a seller neutral volatility strategy as they are in a range - bound oscillation; for black metals, build a short - volatility portfolio strategy due to their large - amplitude fluctuations; for precious metals, create a spot hedging strategy following their significant decline from high levels [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - The latest prices of various metal futures showed different trends, with most experiencing price drops. For example, copper (CU2512) dropped by 0.86% to 85,690, and aluminum (AL2512) decreased by 0.35% to 21,405. Trading volumes and open interests also varied among different metals [3]. 3.2 Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR - PCR indicators describe the strength of option underlying market trends and potential turning points. For instance, the copper option's volume PCR was 0.61, and the open interest PCR was 0.78 [4]. 3.3 Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - From the perspective of the strike prices with the largest open interest in call and put options, the pressure and support levels of each metal option were identified. For example, the pressure level of copper was 90,000, and the support level was 84,000 [5]. 3.4 Option Factors - Implied Volatility - The implied volatility of each metal option showed different levels and trends. For example, the implied volatility of copper was 15.56% at the at - the - money strike, and the weighted implied volatility was 19.01%, showing a decrease of 1.39% [6]. 3.5 Strategy and Recommendations for Different Metals 3.5.1 Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The fundamentals showed inventory changes in major exchanges. The market was in a high - level consolidation with support. Option strategies included a short - volatility seller option portfolio strategy and a spot long - hedging strategy [7]. - **Aluminum**: Inventory data indicated a complex situation. The market showed a long - biased upward high - level oscillation. Strategies included a bullish call option spread strategy, a short - volatility strategy, and a spot collar strategy [9]. - **Zinc**: The fundamentals involved TC prices and inventory data. The market was in a fluctuating recovery with pressure. Strategies included a short - volatility strategy and a spot collar strategy [9]. - **Nickel**: Global inventory increased. The market was in a wide - range oscillation with short - side pressure. Strategies included a short - volatility strategy and a spot covered - call strategy [10]. - **Tin**: The supply side faced challenges. The market showed a short - term high - level oscillation with support. Strategies included a short - volatility strategy and a spot collar strategy [10]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Inventory was being depleted. The market was in an oscillating recovery followed by a rapid decline. Strategies included a short - volatility strategy and a spot long - hedging strategy [11]. 3.5.2 Precious Metals - **Gold**: The Fed's policy influenced the market. The market showed a long - term upward trend with high - level consolidation. Strategies included a short - volatility neutral option seller portfolio strategy and a spot hedging strategy [12]. 3.5.3 Black Metals - **Rebar**: Inventory decreased. The market was in a weak short - side trend with pressure. Strategies included a short - volatility strategy and a spot long - covered - call strategy [14]. - **Iron Ore**: Port inventory increased. The market was in a weak oscillating downward trend with support and pressure. Strategies included a short - volatility strategy and a spot long - collar strategy [14]. - **Ferroalloy (Manganese Silicon)**: Production was stable with high inventory. The market was in a weak short - side trend. Strategies included a short - volatility strategy [15]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Inventory remained high. The market was in a large - range oscillating weak trend. Strategies included a short - volatility strategy and a spot hedging strategy [15]. - **Glass**: Production was stable, and inventory decreased. The market was in a weak trend with pressure. Strategies included a short - volatility strategy and a spot long - collar strategy [16].

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a metal options strategy morning report dated November 3, 2025 [1] - It covers various metal options including non - ferrous metals, precious metals, and black metals [8] - Different strategies are proposed for each metal based on market conditions, option factors, etc. [7][9][10] Group 2: Market Conditions of Underlying Futures - Copper (CU2512) is priced at 87,130, down 80 (-0.09%), with a trading volume of 24.44 million lots and an open interest of 25.83 million lots [3] - Aluminum (AL2512) is at 21,415, up 130 (0.61%), with a trading volume of 20.09 million lots and an open interest of 26.69 million lots [3] - Other metals such as zinc, lead, nickel, etc., also have their respective price, trading volume, and open - interest data [3] Group 3: Option Factors Volume and Open Interest PCR - For copper, the volume PCR is 0.55 with a change of 0.14, and the open - interest PCR is 0.75 with no change [4] - Aluminum has a volume PCR of 0.40 with no change and an open - interest PCR of 0.70 with a - 0.07 change [4] Pressure and Support Levels - Copper's pressure point is 90,000 and support point is 82,000 [5] - Aluminum's pressure point is 21,800 and support point is 19,900 [5] Implied Volatility - Copper's average implied volatility of at - the - money options is 21.02%, and the weighted implied volatility is 22.69% with a - 1.95 change [6] - Aluminum's average implied volatility of at - the - money options is 12.77%, and the weighted implied volatility is 13.86% with a - 0.26 change [6] Group 4: Strategies and Recommendations Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Build a bull spread strategy for call options and a short - volatility seller option combination strategy, and also a spot long - hedging strategy [7] - **Aluminum**: Construct a bull spread strategy for call options, a short call + put option combination strategy, and a spot collar strategy [9] Precious Metals - **Gold**: Build a neutral short - volatility option seller combination strategy and a spot hedging strategy [12] Black Metals - **Rebar**: Construct a short call + put option combination strategy and a spot long - covered call strategy [14] - **Iron Ore**: Build a short call + put option combination strategy and a spot long - collar strategy [14]

Overall Summary - The report is a metal option strategy morning report dated October 31, 2025, covering有色金属, precious metals, and black metals [1][2] - For different metal options, it provides market analysis, option factor research, and strategy recommendations based on their fundamentals and market trends [7][8][9] Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Core Viewpoints - For non - ferrous metals with range - bound oscillations, construct seller neutral volatility strategies; for black metals with large - amplitude fluctuations, build short - volatility portfolio strategies; for precious metals with significant declines from high levels, construct spot hedging strategies [2] Summary by Category 1. Futures Market Overview - The report presents the latest prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interest changes of various metal futures contracts, such as copper (CU2512), aluminum (AL2512), etc [3] 2. Option Factors - Quantity and Position PCR - PCR indicators, including volume PCR and open interest PCR, are used to describe the strength of the option underlying market and the turning points of the underlying market [4] 3. Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - The pressure and support levels of option underlying assets are determined by the strike prices with the largest open interest of call and put options [5] 4. Option Factors - Implied Volatility - It shows the implied volatility data of various metal options, including at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, and the difference between implied and historical volatilities [6] 5. Strategy and Recommendations Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Based on its fundamentals and market trends, construct bull spread strategies for directional trading, short - volatility seller option combinations for volatility trading, and spot hedging strategies [7] - **Aluminum**: Build bull spread strategies, short call and put option combinations, and spot collar strategies [9] - **Zinc**: Construct short call and put option combinations and spot collar strategies [9] - **Nickel**: Build short call and put option combinations with a bearish bias and spot covered call strategies [10] - **Tin**: Implement short - volatility strategies and spot collar strategies [10] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Build short call and put option combinations with a bearish bias and spot hedging strategies [11] Precious Metals - **Gold**: Construct short - volatility option seller combinations and spot hedging strategies [12] Black Metals - **Rebar**: Build short call and put option combinations with a bearish bias and spot covered call strategies [13] - **Iron Ore**: Build short call and put option combinations with a bearish bias and spot collar strategies [13] - **Ferroalloy**: Implement short - volatility strategies [14] - **Industrial Silicon**: Build short call and put option combinations and spot hedging strategies [14] - **Glass**: Build short - volatility strategies and spot collar strategies [15]

Report Industry The report focuses on the metal options market, covering non - ferrous metals, precious metals, and black metals [8]. Core Viewpoints - For non - ferrous metals, which are in a range - bound oscillation, a seller's neutral volatility strategy is recommended. - Black metals maintain a large - amplitude fluctuating market, suitable for constructing a short - volatility portfolio strategy. - Precious metals have fallen sharply from high levels, and a spot hedging strategy is proposed [2]. Summary by Category 1. Futures Market Overview - The report provides the latest prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interest changes of various metal futures contracts, including copper, aluminum, zinc, etc. For example, the latest price of copper (CU2512) is 87,910, with a price increase of 220 and a trading volume of 23.52 million lots [3]. 2. Option Factors 2.1 Volume and Open Interest PCR - It shows the volume and open - interest PCR of different metal options, which are used to describe the strength of the option underlying market and the turning point of the underlying market. For example, the volume PCR of copper options is 0.47, and the open - interest PCR is 0.76 [4]. 2.2 Pressure and Support Levels - The pressure and support levels of various metal options are analyzed. For instance, the pressure level of copper options is 90,000, and the support level is 82,000 [5]. 2.3 Implied Volatility - The implied volatility of different metal options is presented, including at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, and the difference between implied and historical volatility. For example, the at - the - money implied volatility of copper options is 18.93% [6]. 3. Strategy and Recommendations 3.1 Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Based on the analysis of fundamentals, market trends, and option factors, a short - volatility seller's option portfolio strategy is recommended, along with a spot long - hedging strategy [7]. - **Aluminum, Zinc, Nickel, Tin, and Lithium Carbonate**: Similar analysis methods are used, and corresponding volatility and spot hedging strategies are proposed according to their respective characteristics [8][9][10][11]. 3.2 Precious Metals - **Gold**: Considering the fundamentals, market trends, and option factors, a neutral short - volatility option seller's portfolio strategy and a spot hedging strategy are recommended [12]. 3.3 Black Metals - **Rebar, Iron Ore, Ferroalloy, Industrial Silicon, and Glass**: After analyzing the fundamentals, market trends, and option factors, corresponding volatility and spot hedging strategies are put forward [13][14][15].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For non - ferrous metals, construct a neutral volatility strategy for sellers as they are in a range - bound oscillation; for black metals, build a short - volatility portfolio strategy due to their large - amplitude fluctuations; for precious metals, create a spot hedging strategy as they have dropped significantly after reaching a high level [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - The report presents the latest prices, price changes, price change percentages, trading volumes, volume changes, open interests, and open interest changes of various metal futures contracts, including copper, aluminum, zinc, etc. For example, the latest price of copper (CU2512) is 87,660, with a price increase of 790 and a price change percentage of 0.91% [3]. 3.2 Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR - The PCR values of volume and open interest for different metal options are provided. For instance, the volume PCR of copper options is 0.38 with a change of 0.03, and the open interest PCR is 0.85 with a change of 0.06 [4]. 3.3 Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - The pressure and support levels of different metal options are given. For example, the pressure level of copper options is 90,000 and the support level is 82,000 [5]. 3.4 Option Factors - Implied Volatility - The implied volatility data of different metal options are presented, including at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, and its change, annual average, call implied volatility, put implied volatility, HISV20, and the difference between implied and historical volatility. For example, the at - the - money implied volatility of copper options is 21.24%, and the weighted implied volatility is 28.34% with a change of 5.41% [6]. 3.5 Strategy and Recommendations 3.5.1 Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper Options**: The inventory of the three major exchanges decreased by 0.4 million tons month - on - month. The market showed a bullish high - level consolidation. Implied volatility was above the historical average, and the open interest PCR was around 0.80. It is recommended to construct a short - volatility seller option portfolio strategy and a spot long - hedging strategy [7]. - **Aluminum Options**: The inventory decreased. The market showed a bullish high - level oscillation. Implied volatility was at the historical average, and the open interest PCR was below 0.90. It is recommended to construct a short - neutral call + put option portfolio strategy and a spot collar strategy [9]. - **Zinc Options**: The market showed a weak oscillation. Implied volatility decreased to the historical average, and the open interest PCR was around 1.00. It is recommended to construct a short - neutral call + put option portfolio strategy and a spot collar strategy [9]. - **Nickel Options**: The global visible inventory increased. The market showed a wide - range oscillation with bearish pressure. Implied volatility was below the average, and the open interest PCR was below 0.60. It is recommended to construct a short - bearish call + put option portfolio strategy and a spot covered - call strategy [10]. - **Tin Options**: The supply of tin was tight. The market showed a short - term high - level oscillation and then an upward breakthrough. Implied volatility was below the historical average, and the open interest PCR was around 0.60. It is recommended to construct a short - volatility strategy and a spot collar strategy [10]. - **Lithium Carbonate Options**: The inventory decreased. The market showed a large - amplitude fluctuation and then an oscillation and recovery. Implied volatility was at a high level, and the open interest PCR was below 0.60. It is recommended to construct a short - bearish call + put option portfolio strategy and a spot long - hedging strategy [11]. 3.5.2 Precious Metals - **Gold Options**: The US CPI data was lower than expected. The market showed a rapid decline after a bullish trend. Implied volatility was at a high level, and the open interest PCR was 1.00. It is recommended to construct a short - neutral volatility option seller portfolio strategy and a spot hedging strategy [12]. 3.5.3 Black Metals - **Rebar Options**: The inventory decreased. The market showed a weak bearish trend. Implied volatility was below the historical average, and the open interest PCR was below 0.60. It is recommended to construct a short - bearish call + put option portfolio strategy and a spot long - covered - call strategy [13]. - **Iron Ore Options**: The inventory increased. The market showed a weak oscillation and decline. Implied volatility was around the historical average, and the open interest PCR was below 0.60. It is recommended to construct a short - bearish call + put option portfolio strategy and a spot long - collar strategy [13]. - **Ferroalloy Options (Manganese Silicon)**: The production decreased slightly, and the inventory increased. The market showed a weak bearish trend. Implied volatility was at the historical average, and the open interest PCR was around 0.70. It is recommended to construct a short - volatility strategy [14]. - **Industrial Silicon Options**: The production increased, and the inventory decreased slightly. The market showed a large - amplitude range - bound oscillation. Implied volatility was at a high level, and the open interest PCR was below 0.60. It is recommended to construct a short - volatility call + put option portfolio strategy and a spot hedging strategy [14]. - **Glass Options**: The production remained flat, and the inventory increased. The market showed a weak bearish trend. Implied volatility was at a high level, and the open interest PCR was below 0.60. It is recommended to construct a short - volatility call + put option portfolio strategy and a spot long - collar strategy [15].

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a metal options strategy morning report dated October 24, 2025 [1] - It provides an analysis of various metal options, including their market conditions, option factors, and strategy recommendations [2] Group 2: Market Conditions Futures Market - The report presents the latest prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interests of various metal futures contracts [3] - For example, the price of copper futures (CU2512) is 86,730, up 1,150 (1.34%) compared to the previous trading day [3] Option Factors - The report analyzes option factors such as volume and open interest PCR, pressure and support levels, and implied volatility for various metal options [4][5][6] - For instance, the volume PCR of copper options is 0.35, and the open interest PCR is 0.79 [4] Group 3: Strategy Recommendations Overall Strategies - For non - ferrous metals, which are in a range - bound oscillation, a seller's neutral volatility strategy is recommended [2] - For black metals, which maintain high - amplitude fluctuations, a short - volatility combination strategy is suitable [2] - For precious metals, which have fallen sharply from high levels, a spot hedging strategy is proposed [2] Specific Metal Strategies - **Copper Options**: A short - volatility seller option combination strategy is recommended to gain time - value income, and a spot hedging strategy is also provided [7] - **Aluminum Options**: A strategy of selling a neutral combination of call and put options is suggested, along with a spot collar strategy [9] - **Other Metals**: Similar option strategies and spot hedging or备兑 strategies are recommended for zinc, nickel, tin, gold, silver, carbonate lithium, and various black metals [10][11][12][13][14][15] Group 4: Charts - The report includes price trend charts, option volume and open interest charts, PCR charts, implied volatility charts, historical volatility cone charts, and pressure and support level charts for various metals [18][20][27][29][34]