Group 1 - The A-share medical sector weakened on January 26, with AI medical and brain-computer interface concepts leading the decline, as Meien Health dropped by 6% and Weining Health and Sanbo Brain Science fell over 5% [1] - The largest medical ETF in the market (512170) declined by more than 1.6%, losing its half-year line, with real-time transactions exceeding 600 million yuan [1] - Despite the overall decline, the medical ETF (512170) showed high-frequency premiums in the market, indicating active buying interest, with a weekly increase in positions exceeding 813 million yuan [1] Group 2 - CITIC Securities recently published a weekly review of the pharmaceutical industry, indicating that policy impacts will eventually clear, and companies will gradually recover after strategic adjustments, with the medical device sector undergoing dual recovery in valuation and performance [3] - The report suggests increasing allocation to the medical device sector by 2026, with major investment opportunities arising from performance recovery, overseas expansion, brain-computer interfaces, and AI medical technologies, potentially leading to multi-bagger stocks in a tech bull market [3] - The CXO sector is experiencing rapid growth due to advancements in ADC and peptide drugs, with increasing demand for related CXO services, and segments like small nucleic acids and CGT are expected to develop quickly [3] Group 3 - The largest medical ETF (512170) has a fund size of 26.8 billion yuan, making it the largest in the market among medical ETFs [3] - The medical ETF and its linked fund (012323) cover 12 AI medical and brain-computer interface concept stocks, with over 50% weight in medical devices and nearly 25% in CXO [3] - For those interested in Hong Kong stock medical opportunities, the Hong Kong Stock Connect Medical ETF (159137) focuses on medical innovation, gathering core leaders in various pharmaceutical fields, including medical devices, AI medical, CXO, and innovative drugs [3]

具体来看，CXO、创新药等概念集体下挫，晶泰控股、三生制药、微创机器人、药明合联、药明生 物、信达生物等领跌。 招商国际表示，在2025年创新药BD出海授权交易爆发式增长的基础上，2026年初已经有多个BD落地， 体现了中国创新药出海授权交易较高的景气度。 港股市场再度震荡调整，医药板块领跌，恒生生物科技指数跌超2%，聚焦创新药产业的恒生医药ETF （159892）、聚焦CXO+AI医疗的港股通医疗ETF（520510）均跌超2%。 ...

Group 1 - The A-share medical sector weakened on January 26, with AI medical and brain-computer interface concepts leading the decline, as Meien Health dropped by 6% and Weining Health and Sanbo Brain Science fell over 5% [1][6] - The largest medical ETF in the market (512170) fell by more than 1.6%, losing its half-year line, with real-time transactions exceeding 600 million yuan [1][6] - Notably, the medical ETF (512170) showed high-frequency premiums in the market, indicating active low-buying funds, with a weekly increase of over 813 million yuan [1][6] Group 2 - CITIC Securities recently published a weekly review of the pharmaceutical industry, indicating that policy impacts will eventually clear, and corporate strategic adjustments will lead to gradual recovery, particularly in the medical device sector, which is undergoing dual recovery in valuation and performance [3][8] - The report suggests increasing allocation to the medical device sector by 2026, with main investment opportunities arising from performance recovery, overseas expansion, brain-computer interfaces, and AI medical technologies, potentially leading to multi-fold stock growth in a tech bull market [3][8] - The CXO sector is experiencing rapid growth due to advancements in ADC and peptide drugs, with increasing demand in related fields such as small nucleic acids and CGT, indicating long-term growth potential [3][8] Group 3 - The medical ETF (512170) has a fund size of 26.8 billion yuan, making it the largest among medical ETFs in the market [3][8] - The ETF covers over 50% weight in medical devices and nearly 25% in CXO, including 12 AI medical and brain-computer interface concept stocks [3][8] - For those interested in Hong Kong stock medical opportunities, the Hong Kong Stock Connect Medical ETF (159137) is highlighted as a high-elasticity T+0 tool, focusing on medical innovation and gathering core leaders in various medical fields [3][8]

Macro and Strategy Research - The US economy shows strong internal momentum with a 0.3% month-on-month increase in personal consumption expenditures adjusted for inflation in November 2025, marking the highest growth rate since the second half of 2025 [2] - In Europe, inflation dropped below 2% year-on-year in December 2025, indicating easing pressure, supported by labor costs and year-end consumption [3] - Domestic economic growth in China for 2025 is expected to meet targets despite a slowdown in the fourth quarter, with net exports providing structural support in early 2026 [3] Fixed Income Research - The bond market continues to show signs of recovery, with mid- to long-term bonds performing well, driven by a strong equity market and manageable bank liability pressures [5][7] - The issuance of special bonds increased significantly, with a total of 56 bonds issued, amounting to 619.1 billion yuan during the reporting period [7] - The overall bond market is characterized by a recovery trend, with the yield on 7-year government bonds declining the most [7] Industry Research - Nine departments in China have issued opinions to promote high-quality development in the pharmaceutical retail industry, indicating potential benefits for leading chain pharmacies and an expected operational turning point [10][12] - The SW pharmaceutical industry index shows a price-to-earnings ratio of 52.01, with a valuation premium of 266% relative to the CSI 300 index [11] - The report suggests focusing on investment opportunities in innovative drugs, CXO, and upstream life sciences, while also monitoring segments like small nucleic acids [12]

证券研究报告 2026 年 01 月 25 日 湘财证券研究所 根据 Wind 数据，本周申万一级行业医药生物下跌 0.39%，涨幅排名位列申 万 31 个一级行业第 27 位。沪深 300 指数下跌 0.62%，医药跑赢沪深 300 指数 0.23 个百分点。申万医药生物二级子行业医疗服务 II 报收 7280.46 点，下跌 2.17%；中药 II 报收 6350.32 点，上涨 0.89%；化学制药Ⅱ报收 13328.75 点，下跌 1.11%；生物制品Ⅱ报收 6427.70 点，上涨 0.07%；医 药商业Ⅱ报收 5457.63 点，上涨 4.26%；医疗器械 II 报收 6881.47 点，上 涨 0.30%。细分板块来看，医疗服务跌幅较大。 根据 Wind 数据，从医疗服务板块公司的表现来看，表现居前的公司有： 诺禾致源（+11.5%）、新里程（+9.4%）、迪安诊断（+8.2%）、ST 中珠（+7.1%）、 光正眼科（+6.2%）；表现靠后的公司有：博腾股份（-6.9%）、诚达药业 （-6.6%）、药明康德（-6.4%）、美迪西（-4.8%）、成都先导（-4.5%）。从 个股涨跌幅来看 CXO ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the innovative drug sector, indicating it will continue to be a core investment direction in 2026 due to the maturation of the industry chain and normalization of medical insurance negotiations [4]. Core Insights - The public fund's pharmaceutical holdings decreased to 8.11% in Q4 2025, down by 1.66 percentage points (pp) from the previous quarter. Excluding actively managed pharmaceutical funds, the holdings dropped to 3.90%, a decrease of 1.36pp [11][12]. - The innovative drug ETF reached a scale of 100.62 billion yuan in Q4, accounting for 13.11% of the pharmaceutical fund, which is a slight decrease of 1.35pp [13][15]. - The CXO sector saw a decline in holdings due to geopolitical disturbances, while the medical device sector benefited from innovations like brain-computer interfaces and surgical robots, leading to an increase in holdings [14][17]. - The report highlights the acquisition of PART by GSK for $2.2 billion to strengthen its position in the IgE antibody market, with the core product Ozureprubart showing significant market potential [2][31]. - The oral weight loss drug Wegovy has shown strong early commercial progress, with retail prescriptions reaching approximately 3,071 in the first four days post-launch, nearly three times that of its competitor Zepbound [2][31]. Summary by Sections Pharmaceutical Sector - The report indicates a significant decrease in public fund holdings in the pharmaceutical sector, with a noted resilience in the innovative drug segment [11][14]. - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on leading companies with core pipeline competitiveness and global layout capabilities for investment [4]. Medical Devices - The introduction of new pricing guidelines for auxiliary medical services is expected to accelerate the adoption of innovative products in the medical device sector [3][17]. - The report suggests monitoring domestic leading companies in this sector for increasing product penetration [3]. Drugstores - The report discusses the potential for leading drugstore companies to increase market share, supported by recent government policies promoting high-quality development in the retail pharmaceutical industry [3][17]. - Specific companies like Yifeng Pharmacy and Dazhenglin are highlighted as having low valuations and significant cost reduction achievements [3]. CXO and Pharmaceutical Supply Chain - Several CXO companies have released optimistic earnings forecasts for 2025, indicating a clear upward trend in industry prosperity [2][31]. - The report recommends active investment in this sector due to the positive signals regarding industry growth [2][31].

Core Viewpoint - Pharmaron Beijing is positioned as a leading China-based CXO with a comprehensive service model that caters to all stages of drug R&D, capitalizing on the growing global demand for outsourced pharmaceutical R&D [1] Group 1: Company Overview - Founded in 2004, Pharmaron has become a pioneer in the CXO space, recognized globally for its capabilities [1] - The company has strategically expanded its service portfolio to include small molecule CDMO, clinical development, and biologics and CGT, transforming into an end-to-end CXO platform [2] Group 2: Business Segments Performance - Lab services have been the backbone of Pharmaron, with new bookings increasing by over 15% YoY in 2024 [3] - The small molecule CDMO segment saw new orders grow by over 35% YoY in 2024, making it the fastest driver for the company [3] - Pharmaron Clinical, established in 2021, shows potential for productivity improvement due to lower-than-peer revenue per employee and GPM levels [3] - The biologics and CGT business is expected to drive diversification and value growth as demand for complex modalities accelerates [3] Group 3: Market Trends and Financial Outlook - Global innovative drug funding rose by 22.5% YoY in 2H25, with a significant 215.4% YoY increase in China, indicating a recovery in global demand [4] - Total R&D spending among global Top 10 firms returned to positive growth of 5.3% YoY in 1H25, with a stabilized trend in leading biotech companies [4] - Pharmaron's revenue is forecasted to grow by 14.2%/14.8%/16.3% YoY and adjusted net profit to increase by 12.3%/17.8%/18.7% YoY in 2025E/26E/27E, respectively [4]

Core Viewpoint - The global economic landscape is undergoing profound changes, yet market pricing has not fully reflected these shifts. The construction of a unified market is expected to enhance industrial quality and efficiency, with opportunities in overseas expansion, the pharmaceutical industry, and AI technology being highlighted as key investment themes for the future [2][4][12]. Investment Insights - In reviewing investment operations for 2025, the company noted gains in sectors such as biopharmaceuticals, new consumption, AI applications, and precious metals, while acknowledging missed opportunities in the AI supply chain affecting industries like electricity and PCB [5]. - The company emphasizes the importance of value investing and the integration of AI tools to enhance investment decision-making, aiming to combine professional judgment with technological capabilities [5][3]. Market Dynamics - The company observes that the capital market's response to changes in the global economic structure has been slow, with many assets, particularly in China, remaining undervalued. The rising prices of gold and certain mineral resources are seen as initial indicators of this shift [5][6]. - The Chinese capital market has experienced significant changes, with a notable recovery from previous bubbles and a shift towards a more robust economic structure, particularly in green industrial revolutions and sectors like biopharmaceuticals and semiconductors [6][10]. Opportunities in Overseas Expansion - The company identifies overseas expansion as a long-term investment theme, highlighting the advantages of China's high-quality human resources across various fields, which positions it well for global investments [11]. - The focus on overseas opportunities includes sectors such as computing supply chains and biopharmaceuticals, reflecting a shift from traditional investment strategies to a more global perspective [11]. Pharmaceutical Industry Outlook - The pharmaceutical sector is viewed as entering a new growth phase, with significant potential for innovation and international collaboration. The industry is transitioning from generic drug manufacturing to research and development, with a strong emphasis on clinical standards and innovative drug policies [13]. - The competitive landscape in pharmaceuticals is expected to intensify, with a focus on high-stakes innovation and the potential for significant market shifts as companies navigate the clinical development process [13]. Consumer Sector Trends - The consumer sector is experiencing a transformation, with traditional consumption patterns evolving. Opportunities are emerging in service-oriented consumption and innovative supply chain efficiencies, driven by new consumer demands [14]. - The company notes that AI remains a critical area for investment, with the potential for significant disruptions in various industries as AI applications continue to develop [14].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Market Perform" rating for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry, indicating that the industry index is expected to perform within ±10% of the market index over the next six months [4][26]. Core Insights - The SW pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry underperformed the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, with a decline of 0.75% from January 9 to January 22, 2026, lagging behind the index by approximately 0.46 percentage points [11]. - Most sub-sectors within the industry recorded positive returns during the same period, with offline pharmacies and raw materials leading the gains at 3.14% and 2.34%, respectively. In contrast, the pharmaceutical distribution and chemical preparation sectors experienced declines of 3.26% and 2.87% [12][13]. - Approximately 66% of stocks in the industry recorded positive returns, with the top performer, Baolait, showing a weekly increase of 60.88%. Conversely, Luyan Pharmaceutical had the largest decline at 39.07% [13][16]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The SW pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry index showed a decline of 0.75%, underperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 0.46 percentage points [11]. - Most sub-sectors achieved positive returns, particularly offline pharmacies and raw materials, while pharmaceutical distribution and chemical preparations faced declines [12]. 2. Industry News - Recent policy changes in Hebei Province have lifted restrictions on the quantity of drugs that hospitals can stock, allowing for more flexibility in drug procurement and usage [24]. 3. Company Announcements - Enhua Pharmaceutical announced the approval of its drug registration certificate for a new injection, which is expected to enhance its market position [25]. 4. Industry Outlook - The report suggests a focus on investment opportunities in the brain-computer interface sector, which is highlighted as a key area for future growth. Specific companies to watch include Mindray Medical, Yuyuan Medical, and others across various segments [26][28].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on 康龙化成 with a "Buy" rating and a target price of 38.08 RMB, indicating a potential upside of 21.7% from the current price of 31.30 RMB [1][3]. Core Insights - 康龙化成 is recognized as a leading integrated CXO company in China, established in 2004, providing comprehensive services throughout the drug development lifecycle. The company is expected to benefit from the growing global demand for pharmaceutical R&D outsourcing [1][7]. - The report highlights the company's strategic expansion into various sectors, including small molecule CDMO, clinical development, and large molecule & cell and gene therapy (CGT), which positions 康龙化成 as a competitive player in the global market [7]. - The company is projected to achieve revenue growth rates of 14.2%, 14.8%, and 16.3% for FY25E, FY26E, and FY27E, respectively, with adjusted net profit growth rates of 12.3%, 17.8%, and 18.7% for the same periods [7][11]. Financial Summary - For FY23A, 康龙化成 reported sales revenue of 11,538 million RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 12.4%. The adjusted net profit for the same period was 1,903 million RMB, reflecting a growth of 3.8% [2][11]. - The company’s sales revenue is expected to reach 14,022 million RMB in FY25E, with a projected growth of 14.2% year-on-year [2][11]. - The adjusted net profit is forecasted to be 1,804 million RMB in FY25E, with a year-on-year increase of 12.3% [2][11]. Shareholder Structure - The shareholder structure indicates that 19.3% of the shares are held by Hong Kong investors, while the actual controller holds 17.7% [4]. Stock Performance - The stock has shown a 1-month absolute return of 8.6% and a 6-month return of 15.1%, indicating positive market sentiment [5].