Core Insights - The report highlights the acceleration of adjustments in medical insurance and commercial insurance directories, suggesting a strategic approach to invest in undervalued quality stocks during market corrections [1][2] - The innovation drug sector is expected to benefit from a gradually forming insurance guarantee model, which may alleviate challenges related to hospital admissions and reimbursement payments [2] Market Review - The Hang Seng Healthcare Index fell by 1.4% this week, underperforming the broader market, while sectors such as internet medicine, CXO, and traditional Chinese medicine showed relatively better performance [1] - Domestic institutional investors maintained stable holdings through the Hong Kong Stock Connect, while foreign investors slightly reduced their positions since mid-year, although both continue to increase their investments in innovative pharmaceutical companies [1] Investment Recommendations - Focus on companies with significant data releases at the upcoming ESMO conference, such as Kangfang Biologics, Kelun-Biotech, and Rongchang Biologics [2] - Suggested investment strategies include gradually positioning in the innovative drug sector during market pullbacks, with specific recommendations for: 1) Innovative drugs: Companies like 3SBio and Eucure Biopharma have rich short-term catalysts and their valuations do not yet reflect the core value of major products [2] 2) CXO: Leaders in this segment are expected to benefit from high downstream demand and improving financing conditions, such as WuXi AppTec [2]

Group 1 - The medical sector in A-shares remains active, with the largest medical ETF (512170) rising over 1% and recovering its 5-day moving average, with a trading volume exceeding 480 million yuan [1] - Major stocks in the medical device and CXO sectors saw significant gains, with Mindray Medical rising over 4% and Jiuzhou Pharmaceutical hitting a daily limit before closing nearly 6% higher [1] - Conversely, companies like Meihua Medical and Yingke Medical experienced notable declines [1] Group 2 - The release of the industry standard for medical devices using brain-computer interface technology on September 18 is expected to promote the standardized application of this technology in the medical field [1][3] - Global brain initiatives are driving the development of brain-computer interface technology, with China's first industry standard establishing a unified technical language for the sector [3] - The Shanghai government has announced an action plan to promote the development of high-end medical devices, aiming to add over 500 Class III medical device registration certificates by 2027 and cultivate two hundred billion-level leading enterprises [3] Group 3 - The medical ETF (512170) passively tracks the CSI Medical Index, with its top ten weighted stocks including WuXi AppTec, Mindray Medical, and others [3] - The medical device sector is anticipated to reach a turning point in the second half of the year due to improvements in anti-corruption measures, centralized procurement, and equipment purchasing [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese pharmaceutical industry is experiencing a significant transformation driven by technological breakthroughs and demographic changes, leading to a shift from a reliance on license-in to license-out strategies, positioning Chinese companies as key players in the global market [2][4][11]. Group 1: Industry Trends - The Hong Kong pharmaceutical sector is witnessing a surge, with ETFs tracking the Hang Seng Biotechnology Index showing strong performance, indicating a structural change in the industry [1][3]. - Innovation drugs are becoming a major investment theme for 2025, with significant year-to-date gains in related indices, highlighting the leading role of companies like WuXi Biologics and BeiGene [4][5]. - The Chinese pharmaceutical industry now ranks second globally, with approximately 30% of innovative drugs under development worldwide, and a notable increase in the approval rate of new drugs [8][9]. Group 2: Technological Advancements - The advent of CRISPR gene editing and AI technologies is revolutionizing drug development, significantly reducing research and development cycles and enhancing the capabilities of Chinese pharmaceutical companies [2][7]. - The emergence of platform technologies such as ADCs, bispecific antibodies, and cell therapies is opening new avenues for drug development, contributing to the increased competitiveness of domestic biotech products [7]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The market is currently experiencing a revaluation of innovative drug companies, with many leading firms turning profitable and their valuations being reassessed positively [7][11]. - The increase in license-out transactions indicates a shift in the global innovation chain, with Chinese companies now accounting for over 51% of the total transaction value in the BD market [11]. Group 4: Policy and Financial Environment - Supportive policies, including stable medical insurance negotiations and expedited drug approval processes, are fostering an environment conducive to innovation [8]. - The easing of monetary policy, including interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, is providing a favorable financing environment for biotech companies, further enhancing their growth prospects [8]. Group 5: Investment Opportunities - The Hang Seng Medical ETF and the Hong Kong Stock Connect Medical ETF are emerging as attractive investment vehicles, providing exposure to core assets in the Hong Kong pharmaceutical sector [3][15]. - The recent restructuring of the Hang Seng Biotechnology Index has improved its focus on leading companies in the biotech field, enhancing its investment appeal [14][15].

Core Viewpoint - The article provides insights into the latest perspectives and recommendations for the pharmaceutical sector, emphasizing the importance of historical context in analyzing the industry and individual stocks [4]. Group 1: Pharmaceutical Sector Insights - The research team at Guotai Junan Securities specializes in analyzing the global pharmaceutical industry over 40 years and the Chinese pharmaceutical industry over 20 years, focusing on a comprehensive view of industry development to identify investment opportunities [4]. - Key discussions are scheduled for various segments of the pharmaceutical industry, including medical devices, innovative drugs, and CXO & upstream sectors, with prominent analysts leading these discussions [5][6][7]. Group 2: Upcoming Events and Recommendations - A series of conference calls are planned from September 22 to September 26, covering different aspects of the pharmaceutical sector, with notable analysts presenting their insights and recommendations [5][6][7]. - The focus will be on recent key recommendations and deep dives into specific stocks, highlighting the ongoing analysis and updates in the pharmaceutical landscape [7].

Core Viewpoint - The pharmaceutical sector in both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks experienced significant declines, particularly in innovative drugs and CXO concepts, despite a slight recovery towards the end of the trading session [1][3]. A-Share Market Summary - The largest medical ETF in A-shares (512170) fell by 1.81%, marking its fourth consecutive decline, with a trading volume increase of over 50% to 846 million yuan [1]. - The pharmaceutical sector remained sluggish, with both innovative drugs and traditional Chinese medicine concepts declining, as evidenced by the only drug ETF (562050) dropping 1.61% for three consecutive days [1]. Hong Kong Market Summary - In the Hong Kong market, the innovative drug ETF (520880) saw a decline of 1.42% after a brief rebound, with a trading volume of 327 million yuan [3]. - Among the 37 constituent stocks of the Hong Kong innovative drug ETF, 31 stocks fell, with the largest drop being 5.12% for Yimeng Biotechnology [3]. Market Dynamics - Despite the downturn, both the A-share medical ETF and the Hong Kong innovative drug ETF are trading at a premium, indicating an influx of capital seeking to buy at lower prices [6]. - The Hong Kong innovative drug ETF has attracted nearly 680 million yuan over 14 consecutive trading days from September 2 to 19 [6]. Policy and Industry Outlook - The National Healthcare Security Administration recently released the 11th batch of centralized drug procurement documents, emphasizing quality assurance and reasonable profit margins for pharmaceutical companies [6]. - The fund manager of the Hong Kong innovative drug ETF believes that the new procurement policies will support innovation in the pharmaceutical sector and enhance the industry's profitability [6]. Investment Strategy - The fund manager suggests a potential rotation towards large-cap blue-chip companies in the mid-term, while small-cap companies may lose investor interest if they fail to deliver performance [7]. - A balanced investment approach is recommended, combining innovative drugs with sectors like medical devices and healthcare services [7]. ETF Characteristics - The Hong Kong innovative drug ETF (520880) focuses exclusively on innovative drug research and development, while the medical ETF (512170) includes a broader range of healthcare sectors [8]. - The medical ETF is the largest in the market, with a scale of 26.5 billion yuan, while the drug ETF is the only one tracking the China Pharmaceutical Index [9].

引言： 医药行业，始终是一条充满韧性又孕育惊喜的黄金赛道。它既承载着人类对健康最本真的渴望，又汇集 了科技突破与政策变革的时代浪潮。回顾过往十五年，医药板块历经多轮牛熊转换，每一次低谷都在为 下一次爆发蓄力，而每一次崛起，都伴随着产业结构的深刻变革。 当前，随着中国创新药在国际舞台频频"破圈"，政策利好层层释放，人口老龄化带来需求长周期扩张， 医药行业正再次站在时代的聚光灯下。 ●复盘十五年行情：医药板块的周期轮动与涨跌逻辑 医药行业从来都不缺故事，更不缺行情。回顾过去十五年，医药行业经历了多次显著的市场周期，每一 轮牛市都有其独特的驱动因素与市场表现。 ※2009-2010年，"四万亿"政策推动市场反弹，叠加医药行业整改完成、医保目录扩容与支出扩张，行 业上市公司业绩大增，中证申万医药生物指数飙涨148.46%，远超同期上证指数涨幅54.22%，成为当时 市场中的"领涨先锋"（数据来源：Wind，统计区间：2009.1.1-2010.12.31。中证申万医药生物指数代 码：000808.CSI，基日：2004-12-31，发布日期：2012-02-17，成份数量：100，发布机构：中证指数有 限公司；上证指 ...

随着创新药价值得到市场认可，上游CXO板块的关注度也显著提升。细分来看，当前CDMO已印证全 球需求的高景气。商业化项目驱动国内龙头公司新签订单高增，部分龙头公司订单在2024年已看到改善 趋势。随着项目陆续交付，2025年CDMO公司在业绩端持续复苏。 临床前及临床CRO则主要以国内业务为主，此前国内外需求均阶段性承压。展望后续，CRO端亦将迎 来复苏，部分公司订单25Q2已初现拐点。 港股通医疗ETF（520510）聚焦CXO、AI医疗等概念，持仓股覆盖药明生物、药明康德、药明合联、京 东健康、阿里健康等，有望受益于CXO商业订单变现及AI技术革命。 国金证券表示，美联储9月17日宣布年内首次降息，降低生物科技企业的融资成本，鼓励其加大研发投 入，推动新药研发管线，为CXO企业带来更多订单。具备全球竞争力，获取订单能力强的头部CXO企 业或具备投资机会。 ...

Summary of the Conference Call Transcript Industry Overview - **Industry**: China Healthcare - **Key Companies Mentioned**: Akeso, Innovent, Hansoh, BeOne, Simcere, Duality Bio, Leads Bio, GenFleet, CSPC, Sino Biopharm, Mindray Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Investor Focus Areas**: Investors are concentrating on potential licensing-out opportunities, risks associated with potential Executive Orders from the US Administration, and current valuations of biopharma companies [2][3] 2. **Investor Sentiment**: There is a notable interest in Akeso for potential buying opportunities, while BeOne and Simcere are perceived as undervalued [2] 3. **Emerging Companies**: Newer companies like Duality Bio, Leads Bio, and GenFleet are attracting strong interest from investors [2] 4. **Generalist Investors' Participation**: Generalist investors have increased their participation in the healthcare sector year-to-date, with many being equal or overweight relative to the MSCI sector percentage [3] 5. **Caution Among Specialists**: Specialists are becoming more cautious regarding companies driven by business development expectations, particularly CSPC and Sino Biopharm, due to uncertainties around US approvals [4] 6. **Valuation Concerns**: Generalist investors are turning conservative on companies with high business development valuation contributions due to potential restrictions from US Executive Orders [3] 7. **Performance of Core Holdings**: Hengrui and Hansoh are noted for their strong performance as core holdings due to their consistent track record and R&D capabilities [3] Risks and Challenges 1. **Healthcare Industry Risks**: Key risks identified for China's healthcare industry include: - Worse-than-expected price cuts from GPO programs - Intensified competition - Lower-than-expected innovative drug prices negotiated for NRDLs - Slower-than-expected consumption recovery in China - Stricter-than-expected regulatory announcements and implementations - Rising geopolitical tensions affecting operations [6] Additional Insights 1. **Market Dynamics**: Investors are showing interest in relatively inexpensive valuations of CXO and medtech names, looking for potential growth acceleration or recovery [2] 2. **Profit-Taking**: Generalist investors are considering profit-taking on certain names due to difficulties in identifying alpha opportunities in crowded therapeutic areas [3] 3. **IPO Interest**: There is interest in new IPO listings, particularly GenFleet, as investors seek opportunities outside of established names [4] Conclusion The conference call highlighted a cautious yet opportunistic sentiment among investors in the China healthcare sector, with a focus on emerging companies and potential risks stemming from regulatory changes and market dynamics. The overall investor landscape is shifting, with generalist investors becoming more selective and specialists expressing caution regarding business development-driven companies.

Group 1: Market Overview - The market has shown good performance since Q3 2025, with notable sector differentiation [3][4] - Key sectors performing well include technology, pharmaceuticals, new energy, and certain cyclical industries like non-ferrous metals, attributed to their strong fundamentals [4][6] - High dividend sectors like finance and banking have underperformed due to declining dividend yields impacting stock momentum, although they remain good absolute return options [5] Group 2: A-Share Outlook - The outlook for A-shares remains positive for Q4 2025 and 2026, as the Chinese economy is gradually recovering from previous pressures [6][8] - Sectors such as AI-driven technology, innovative pharmaceuticals, and new consumption are showing significant market movements, indicating improving fundamentals [6][8] - Cyclical and consumer sectors, while currently lagging, are expected to recover as the economy improves, making them attractive for future investment [7][8] Group 3: Hong Kong Market Drivers - The Hong Kong market has benefited from three main factors: valuation recovery, confidence restoration, and a shift in global monetary policy [11][12] - Valuation recovery is driven by improved earnings from major internet companies, while confidence has been bolstered by technological advancements and successful innovations [12] - The shift in global monetary policy, particularly the anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, is expected to favor emerging markets, including Hong Kong [12][20] Group 4: Sector Focus in Hong Kong - Future investment opportunities in Hong Kong will focus on technology, internet, pharmaceuticals, and consumer sectors [14] - The internet sector is expected to see improved profitability and attractiveness due to reduced policy uncertainties and increased foreign investment [14] - Emerging consumer trends in areas like trendy products, new tea drinks, and beauty care are projected to maintain high growth rates, making them appealing investment targets [14] Group 5: Economic and Policy Considerations - The U.S. Federal Reserve is likely to lower interest rates further, potentially bringing the federal funds rate down to 3% to 3.5% [20] - Short-term U.S. Treasury yields may have room to decline, while long-term yields face upward pressure due to uncertainties and fiscal deficits [21] - Emerging markets, particularly in Asia, are expected to show strong growth, driven by local demand and improved fiscal conditions, making them attractive for investment [22]

Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [1]. Core Insights - The adjustment of the National Essential Medicines List (NEML) is expected to continue, with a focus on opportunities for the inclusion of traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) products [4][5][18]. - The report highlights the importance of the NEML adjustment cycle, which is generally not more than three years, and the potential for TCM products to be added to the list [5][17]. - The report suggests focusing on innovative drug research and development, particularly in TCM, and recommends specific companies as potential investment targets [19][34]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The closing index for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector is 9096.29, with a weekly high of 9323.49 and a low of 6070.89 [1]. Recent Market Performance - During the week of September 15-19, 2025, the A-share pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector fell by 2.07%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.63 percentage points and the ChiNext index by 4.41 percentage points [6][20]. - The sector ranked 25th among 31 first-level sub-industries in terms of weekly performance [6]. Investment Recommendations 1. **Innovative Drugs**: The report suggests that the innovative drug sector may experience fluctuations but emphasizes the importance of identifying high-quality assets. Recommended companies include Innovent Biologics, 3SBio, and others [7][24]. 2. **CXO Services**: The report indicates that the domestic innovative drug sector is stabilizing, with expected improvements in the CRO industry performance. Recommended companies include WuXi AppTec and Tigermed [25][26]. 3. **Biological Products**: Focus on opportunities for core product volume growth and potential valuation adjustments based on product data or business development expectations. Recommended companies include TianTan Bio and others [29]. 4. **Medical Devices**: The report anticipates a turning point in the medical device sector due to improved procurement funding and anti-corruption measures. Recommended companies include Mindray and others [30]. 5. **Traditional Chinese Medicine**: The report highlights the potential for TCM products to benefit from NEML policies and suggests companies like Zhaoke Ophthalmology and others as beneficiaries [33][34]. Market Trends - The report notes that the pharmaceutical sector's overall valuation (TTM) is 31.24, with a relative valuation premium of 136.13% compared to the CSI 300 index [44].