Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Cautiously bearish [2] - LPG: Bearish [2] - L: Bearish continuation [2] - PP: Bearish continuation [2] - PVC: Bearish continuation [2] - PX: Cautiously bearish [2] - PTA: Cautiously bearish [4] - Ethylene glycol: Cautiously bearish [4] - Methanol: Cautiously bearish [4] - Urea: Cautiously bearish [4] - Natural gas: Cautiously bullish [6] - Asphalt: Cautiously bearish [6] - Glass: Bearish continuation [6] - Soda ash: Bearish continuation [6] Core Views of the Report - Overall, most energy and chemical products face downward pressure due to factors such as supply - demand imbalances and oil price trends, while natural gas has some upward support due to seasonal demand [2][4][6] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market review**: On October 31, international oil prices rebounded, with WTI up 0.68%, Brent up 0.62%, and SC down 0.67% [7][8] - **Basic logic**: OPEC+ plans to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December and pause in Q1 2024. Global crude oil inventories are accelerating accumulation, and the core driver is the supply surplus in the off - season [9][10] - **Strategy recommendation**: Hold previous short positions and consider adding short positions lightly. Focus on the SC range of [455 - 470] [11] LPG - **Market review**: On October 31, the PG main contract closed at 4,301 yuan/ton, up 0.23% [14] - **Basic logic**: The price is anchored to the cost of crude oil. Geopolitical risks have eased, and the cost has declined. Supply has decreased slightly, and demand has some resilience [15] - **Strategy recommendation**: Hold short positions. Focus on the PG range of [4250 - 4350] [16] L - **Market review**: The L2601 contract closed at 7,009 yuan/ton, up 0.3% [18] - **Basic logic**: Cost support has weakened. Supply is in a loose pattern, and demand has limited restocking motivation [20] - **Strategy recommendation**: The market maintains a contango structure. Industries should sell at high prices. Focus on the L range of [6950 - 7100] [20] PP - **Market review**: The PP2601 contract closed at 6,691 yuan/ton, up 72 [24] - **Basic logic**: Spot prices have not kept up with the increase, and the basis has weakened. There is high inventory - removal pressure in the future, and oil - based cost support is insufficient [25] - **Strategy recommendation**: The market maintains a contango structure. Industries should sell at high prices. Focus on the PP range of [6600 - 6800] [25] PVC - **Market review**: The V2601 contract closed at 4,719 yuan/ton, up 20 [28] - **Basic logic**: Low - valuation support exists, and the loss of a single variety has expanded. Attention should be paid to whether upstream marginal devices can reduce production to ease the supply - demand surplus [29] - **Strategy recommendation**: The market maintains a high contango structure. Industries should hedge at high prices. Focus on the V range of [4600 - 4800] [29] PX - **Market review**: Not specifically mentioned in a unified market review part [30] - **Basic logic**: Supply has domestic reduction and overseas increase. Demand has improved recently but is expected to weaken. PXN and PX - MX are at relatively high levels, and the cost of crude oil is under pressure [30] - **Strategy recommendation**: Consider short - selling at high prices. Focus on the PX range of [6580 - 6680] [31] PTA - **Market review**: TA05 closed at 4,644 yuan/ton, TA11 at 4,536 yuan/ton, and TA01 at 4,586 yuan/ton [32] - **Basic logic**: Processing fees are low. Supply pressure is expected to ease due to potential device maintenance. Terminal demand has slightly improved, but there is an expected inventory build - up in November [33] - **Strategy recommendation**: Exit short positions at low prices and consider short - selling at high prices. Focus on the TA range of [4560 - 4650] [34] Ethylene Glycol - **Market review**: Not specifically mentioned in a unified market review part [36] - **Basic logic**: Domestic and overseas devices have increased their loads. Supply pressure is expected to rise, and there is an expected inventory build - up in November. Valuation is low, but there is no upward drive [36] - **Strategy recommendation**: Hold short positions cautiously and consider short - selling on rebounds. Focus on the EG range of [3980 - 4050] [37] Methanol - **Market review**: Not specifically mentioned in a unified market review part [40] - **Basic logic**: High inventory suppresses spot price rebounds. Supply pressure is large, and demand is average. Cost support is weak and stable [40] - **Strategy recommendation**: Hold short positions cautiously. Consider going long on the 01 contract at low prices and the MA1 - 5 reverse spread. Focus on the MA range of [2110 - 2190] [42] Urea - **Market review**: UR05 closed at 1,703 yuan/ton, UR09 at 1,736 yuan/ton, and UR01 at 1,625 yuan/ton [43] - **Basic logic**: Supply is expected to increase, and demand improvement is limited. Valuation is low, and there is a risk of downward movement [44] - **Strategy recommendation**: The fundamentals are weak. Consider going long lightly in the medium - to - long term. Focus on the UR range of [1610 - 1640] [46] Natural Gas - **Market review**: On October 31, the NG main contract closed at 4.205 US dollars per million British thermal units, up 2.69% [49] - **Basic logic**: Geopolitical risks have been released, and demand has increased due to the approaching heating season. Supply is relatively sufficient [50] - **Strategy recommendation**: The cooling temperature supports the gas price, but there is upward pressure. Focus on the NG range of [4.050 - 4.250] [51] Asphalt - **Market review**: On October 31, the BU main contract closed at 3,244 yuan/ton, down 0.31% [53] - **Basic logic**: The price is affected by the decline in oil prices. Supply and demand have both decreased, and inventory has declined [54] - **Strategy recommendation**: The valuation is high, and supply is sufficient. Short positions can be held lightly. Focus on the BU range of [3250 - 3350] [55] Glass - **Market review**: FG2601 closed at 1,095 yuan/ton, up 3 [58] - **Basic logic**: There is intense capital gaming. Inventory has increased counter - seasonally, and supply is under pressure due to profitable production processes [59] - **Strategy recommendation**: Cautiously participate. Bullish in the short - term technically, bearish on rebounds in the medium - term. Focus on the FG range of [1080 - 1130] [59] Soda Ash - **Market review**: SA2601 closed at 1,209 yuan/ton, down 26 [62] - **Basic logic**: It rebounds with the black building materials sector. Inventory has slightly decreased, but it is still at a high level. Supply is expected to increase [63] - **Strategy recommendation**: Industries should sell at high prices. Hold the long position of the soda - glass spread. Focus on the SA range of [1220 - 1270] [63]

Summary of Q3 2025 Earnings Call for Qibin Group Company Overview - **Company**: Qibin Group - **Industry**: Glass manufacturing, specifically float glass, photovoltaic glass, electronic glass, and pharmaceutical glass Key Financial Metrics - **Q3 2025 Revenue**: 4.387 billion CNY - Float Glass: 1.9 billion CNY - Photovoltaic Glass: 2.1 billion CNY - Energy-saving Building Glass: 240 million CNY - Electronic Glass: 70 million CNY - Pharmaceutical Glass: 7-8 million CNY - **Net Profit**: Over 24 million CNY - Float Glass Profit: 62 million CNY - Energy-saving Building Glass Profit: 20 million CNY - Losses: Photovoltaic Glass (23 million CNY), Electronic Glass (14 million CNY), Pharmaceutical Glass (7 million CNY) [2][5][6] Production and Sales Performance - **Float Glass Production**: 83.64 million weight cases in the first three quarters, up 1.91 million weight cases year-on-year - **Sales of Float Glass**: 81.83 million weight cases, with a production-sales ratio of 97.84% and a gross margin of 15.4% - **Q3 Production**: 28.3 million weight cases, sales of 29.61 million weight cases, production-sales ratio of 104.5% - **Photovoltaic Glass**: Production and sales of 445 million square meters in the first three quarters, with a gross margin of 7.6% [7][2] Cost and Expense Management - **Raw Material Prices**: - Soda ash prices decreased from over 1,400 CNY to 1,200 CNY - Petroleum coke prices increased from 1,400 CNY to under 1,700 CNY - **Financial Ratios**: - Financial expense ratio decreased from 3.08% to 2.5% - Management expense ratio decreased from 5% to 4.1% - Sales expense ratio decreased from 1.14% to 1% [8] Cash Flow and Investment Activities - **Net Cash Flow from Operating Activities**: 1.06 billion CNY in the first three quarters, with Q3 contributing over 700 million CNY, a year-on-year increase of 255% - **Investment Activities**: 1.58 billion CNY, significantly reduced compared to previous years; accounts receivable increased by 143 million CNY but the growth rate narrowed; inventory decreased by 200 million CNY compared to Q2 [9] Dividend Policy - **Future Dividend Plan**: Increased dividend payout ratio from 20% to 50% over the next three years, with more frequent cash dividends, potentially semi-annually or quarterly [10] Industry Insights - **Float Glass Market**: - The float glass industry is under pressure but showed signs of recovery in September 2025, with an average domestic price of 1,290 CNY/ton, up 7.6% from Q2 and 10.8% year-on-year - Energy-saving building glass is experiencing structural upgrades driven by carbon neutrality goals and changing market demands [4] - **Photovoltaic Glass Market**: - After a period of adjustment, the photovoltaic glass industry is recovering, with inventory pressure released and prices rebounding - Major companies dominate the market, reducing the risk of vicious competition, and prices are expected to remain stable [2][12] Challenges and Future Outlook - **Electronic Glass**: Currently in a loss position due to R&D expenses and personnel costs, with profitability unlikely in the first half of next year, but long-term improvements are anticipated through investments in chip packaging and overflow projects [3][25] - **Market Predictions**: - The industry consensus is that supply-demand balance can be maintained, with expectations of price declines next year but not reaching the lows of mid-2023 [21] - The potential for significant price drops in November is low, with prices expected to stabilize around 13 CNY [13] Additional Considerations - **Environmental Policies**: New policies require advance reporting for new capacity and emphasize measures against underpricing, although specific regulations are yet to be clarified [11] - **Future Production Capacity**: Limited unactivated capacity in photovoltaic glass, with minimal likelihood of large-scale activation due to energy consumption requirements [22]

玻璃纯碱早报 | 乖 亦安期货 | | --- | | | | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | | 2025/11/3 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | 玻 璃 | | | | | | | | | | | 2025/10/24 2025/10/30 2025/10/31 周度变化 日度变化 | | | | | | 2025/10/24 2025/10/30 2025/10/31 周度变化 日度变化 | | | | 沙河安全 | 1121.0 | 1113.0 | 1113.0 | -8.0 | 0.0 | FG05合约 | 1236.0 | 1243.0 | 1232.0 | -4.0 | -11.0 | | 5mm大 板 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 沙河长城 | 1104.0 | 1113.0 | 1113.0 | 9.0 | 0.0 | FG01合约 | 1092.0 | 1091.0 | 1083.0 | -9.0 | - ...

Group 1 - JPMorgan Chase & Co. increased its stake in Fuyao Glass (06865.HK) by acquiring 4.601 million shares at an average price of HKD 11.9064 per share, totaling approximately HKD 54.78 million [1] - Following this acquisition, JPMorgan's total holdings in Fuyao Glass rose to 62,149,358 shares, increasing its ownership percentage from 13.02% to 14.07% [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the construction materials sector [3]. Core Views - The construction materials sector is experiencing a mixed performance, with cement prices under pressure while glass and fiberglass manufacturing show positive trends. The overall sector has outperformed the CSI 300 index by 1.75% during the week [1][12]. - Government policies aimed at alleviating financial pressures on local governments are expected to improve the fiscal environment, potentially accelerating municipal engineering projects [1]. - The glass market is facing supply-demand imbalances, but self-regulation among photovoltaic glass manufacturers may help ease these tensions [1]. - Consumer building materials are recommended due to their potential benefits from second-hand housing transactions and consumption stimulus policies [1]. - The cement industry is still in a demand bottoming phase, with production adjustments being made to stabilize prices [1][17]. Summary by Sections Cement Industry Tracking - As of October 31, 2025, the national cement price index is 347.34 CNY/ton, up 1.07% week-on-week. Cement output reached 2.8265 million tons, an increase of 8.05% from the previous week [17]. - The cement market is characterized by stable growth in infrastructure, while residential construction lags behind [17]. Glass Industry Tracking - The average price of float glass is 1202.68 CNY/ton, down 3.30% from the previous week. Inventory levels have decreased, indicating some recovery in demand [2][5]. Fiberglass Industry Tracking - Fiberglass prices have stabilized, with demand for high-end products remaining strong. The market is expected to see price increases in the medium to long term [5]. Consumer Building Materials - The demand for consumer building materials is showing signs of weak recovery, influenced by fluctuations in upstream raw material prices [6]. Carbon Fiber Industry Tracking - The carbon fiber market remains stable, with production costs reported at 106,100 CNY/ton, leading to negative margins for many producers [6]. Key Stocks - Recommended stocks include: - North New Building Materials (Buy) - Weixing New Materials (Accumulate) - Sankeshu (Buy) - China Jushi (Buy) - Yinlong Co. (Buy) - Puyang Refractories (Buy) [7].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported strong financial performance for Q3 2025, exceeding market expectations with significant year-on-year growth in both revenue and net profit [1][2]. Financial Performance - For Q1-Q3 2025, the company achieved revenue of 1.382 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 5.17%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 334 million yuan, up 42.23% year-on-year [1]. - In Q3 2025, revenue reached 474 million yuan, reflecting an 18.82% year-on-year growth, while net profit was 112 million yuan, marking a substantial increase of 79.51% year-on-year [1][2]. Profitability Improvement - The gross margin for Q3 2025 was 48.47%, an increase of 7.24 percentage points compared to the same period last year, while the net margin was 21.47%, up 6.00 percentage points year-on-year [3]. - The increase in gross margin is attributed to the delivery of high-margin products and a higher proportion of revenue from these products, which has nearly returned to the highest levels seen during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [3]. Inventory and Accounts Payable - As of the end of Q3 2025, the company's inventory was 947 million yuan, a 24.12% increase from the end of H1 2025, and accounts payable stood at 324 million yuan, up 7.64% from H1 2025 [4]. - The increase in inventory and accounts payable indicates robust production and high industry demand [4]. Expansion Plans - The company announced a plan to raise up to 300 million yuan to build a new production line for quartz electronic yarn, which is expected to add 1,000 tons of annual capacity [4]. - This expansion is seen as a strategic move to enhance the company's competitive position in the market for high-frequency, high-speed copper-clad laminates [4]. Market Position and Growth Potential - The company is positioned as a leading supplier of quartz glass materials and products, benefiting significantly from the recovery in demand within the aerospace sector [5]. - The quartz electronic cloth is identified as a key growth driver, with potential for substantial market expansion due to its application in high-frequency and high-speed products [5]. Earnings Forecast Adjustment - The earnings forecast for 2025-2027 has been revised downwards, with expected net profits of 550 million, 850 million, and 1.17 billion yuan respectively, reflecting adjustments based on industry conditions [5]. - Despite the downward revision, the company maintains a positive outlook due to the recovery of traditional business revenue and strong demand in emerging markets [5].

Core Insights - The company, Nanfang Glass A, is a leading player in the domestic glass industry, established in 1984 and listed in 1992, with a strong focus on energy-saving glass, electronic glass, and solar photovoltaic products [1] Group 1: Business Performance - For Q3 2025, Nanfang Glass A reported revenue of 10.424 billion, ranking second in the industry, surpassing the industry average of 4.916 billion and the median of 3.461 billion [2] - The net profit for the same period was 139 million, ranking third in the industry, above the industry average of 30.5 million and the median of 13.56 million [2] Group 2: Financial Ratios - As of Q3 2025, the company's debt-to-asset ratio was 56.17%, higher than the previous year's 54.42% and above the industry average of 48.69% [3] - The gross profit margin for Q3 2025 was 13.88%, lower than the previous year's 19.07% but higher than the industry average of 8.81% [3] Group 3: Leadership - The chairman, Chen Lin, holds multiple positions, including executive vice president at Baoneng Investment Group and chairman of China Nanfang Group, with a strong background in logistics and management [4] Group 4: Shareholder Information - As of September 19, 2025, the number of A-share shareholders decreased by 0.77% to 94,800, while the average number of shares held per shareholder increased by 0.77% to 20,700 [5] Group 5: Industry Outlook - According to Changjiang Securities, Nanfang Glass A faced operational pressure in the first half of 2025, but the photovoltaic glass segment showed continuous growth, with a complete production capability from raw material to deep processing [6] - The company has nine photovoltaic glass production furnaces and plans to enhance capacity further with ongoing projects [6] - As of June 30, 2025, the company had filed 3,513 patent applications, indicating strong R&D capabilities [6]

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley increased its stake in Fuyao Glass (06865) by 4.6001 million shares at a price of HKD 11.9064 per share, totaling approximately HKD 54.7706 million [1] - After the increase, Morgan Stanley's total shareholding in Fuyao Glass is approximately 62.1494 million shares, representing a stake of 14.07% [1]

Core Insights - Morgan Stanley increased its stake in Fuyao Glass (601865) by purchasing 4.6001 million shares at a price of HKD 11.9064 per share, totaling approximately HKD 54.7706 million [1] - Following this transaction, Morgan Stanley's total shareholding in Fuyao Glass reached approximately 62.1494 million shares, representing a holding percentage of 14.07% [1]

玻璃纯碱产业风险管理日报 2025/10/31 寿佳露（投资咨询证号：Z0020569） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 玻璃纯碱价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 玻璃 | 1000-1300 | 27.83% | 74.5% | | 纯碱 | 1100-1400 | 17.50% | 8.5% | source： 南华研究,同花顺 玻璃纯碱套保策略表 | | 行 为 | 情景分析 | 现货敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 | 套保比例 | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 导 | | | | | | （%） | | | | 向 | | | | | | | | | | 库 存 | | | 为了防止存货叠加损失，可以根据 企业的库存情况，做空玻璃期货来 | FG2601 | 卖出 | 50% | 1250 | | | | 产成品库存偏 高，担心玻 ...