Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [5][39]. Core Views - The company's Q1 2025 performance shows significant growth driven by the buoyancy of the Hong Kong stock market, with revenue reaching HKD 6.831 billion, a year-on-year increase of 31.3% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 8.2%. Net profit attributable to shareholders was HKD 4.077 billion, up 37.3% year-on-year and 7.9% quarter-on-quarter [1][8]. - The revenue structure is dominated by trading fees and transaction system usage fees, which accounted for 46.1% and 29.0% of total revenue, respectively, totaling over 75% [1][8]. - The company exhibits a high EBITDA margin of 76.6% in Q1 2025, reflecting significant scale effects [1][8]. - The effective tax rate has increased significantly due to the OECD's "Pillar Two" rules, which may keep the tax rate above 15% in the future, slightly impacting net profit [1][12]. Summary by Sections Company Performance - In Q1 2025, the average daily trading volume (ADT) for cash securities reached HKD 225.4 billion, a remarkable year-on-year increase of 153.0% [2][20]. - The company has a light asset model with high gross margins, where operating expenses were HKD 1.516 billion, with personnel costs making up 64.4% of total expenses [3][35]. - The company maintains a stable dividend payout ratio of around 90%, with a historical dividend yield of 2%-3% over the past decade [3][35]. Market Dynamics - The report highlights that southbound capital is a key driver of trading volume, with the southbound trading ADT for Q1 2025 being HKD 1.099 billion, accounting for 24.4% of the total ADT [2][20]. - The number of mainland companies listing in Hong Kong has become dominant, contributing to a rich pool of quality investment targets [2][26]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for the company show a steady growth trajectory, with expected revenues of HKD 26.237 billion in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 17.3% [4][47]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to reach HKD 15.428 billion in 2025, with a growth rate of 18.2% [4][47]. - The report anticipates a slight downward adjustment of 5.56% in net profit estimates for 2025-2027 due to the increased tax rate [3][39].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the financial performance and market position of Xinli Financial, which has a high PE ratio compared to its industry peers [1][2] - As of May 9, Xinli Financial's stock closed at 8.97 yuan, down 3.13%, with a rolling PE ratio of 130.78 times and a total market capitalization of 4.599 billion yuan [1] - The average PE ratio for the diversified financial industry is 70.45 times, with a median of 28.21 times, placing Xinli Financial at the 19th position among its peers [1][2] Group 2 - As of March 31, 2025, Xinli Financial had 84,726 shareholders, an increase of 20,527 from the previous count, with an average holding value of 352,800 yuan and an average shareholding of 27,600 shares per shareholder [1] - The main business activities of Xinli Financial include financing leasing, small loans, software and information technology services, pawn services, financing guarantees, and supply chain services [1] - In the latest quarterly report for Q1 2025, Xinli Financial reported operating revenue of 89.8757 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.13%, and a net profit of 17.4284 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 29.83%, with a gross profit margin of 81.55% [1]

丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨点评报告丨多元金融 [Table_Title] 公募高质量发展方案点评：以持有人利益为根 基，深化行业改革 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 近期证监会出台《推动公募基金高质量发展行动方案》，围绕公募基金公司的绩效考核、费率机 制、产品发行、合规与行业生态等方面出台一系列政策举措。具体来看，《行动方案》重塑考核 体系，突出长期价值投资导向；费率改革转向浮动费率机制，重构盈利模式；产品发行突出权 益导向，优化注册流程；强化合规管理，优化行业生态。《行动方案》有望将公募管理人与投资 者利益相绑定，进一步提升投资者对管理人的信任，正向激励为投资者创造价值的基金公司， 助力行业的良性发展。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 吴一凡 戴永飞 SAC：S0490519080007 SAC：S0490524070001 SFC：BUV596 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 多元金融 cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title 公募高质量发展方案点评：以持有人利益为根 2] 基，深化行业改革 [Table_S ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the performance and valuation of Zhongyou Capital, which closed at 7.14 yuan with a PE ratio of 21.53 times, significantly lower than the industry average of 70.45 times [1][2] - As of March 31, 2025, Zhongyou Capital had 179,183 shareholders, a decrease of 26,205 from the previous period, with an average holding value of 352,800 yuan and an average shareholding of 27,600 shares [1] - The company operates primarily in the financial sector, focusing on the production, sales, and research of financial products, including external investments, investment management, and consulting services [1] Group 2 - In the latest quarterly report for Q1 2025, Zhongyou Capital reported revenue of 8.947 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.77%, and a net profit of 1.269 billion yuan, down 26.57% from the previous year, with a sales gross margin of 0.59% [1] - The company has received several awards, including recognition for excellent cases in financial aging services and digital transformation in the insurance industry [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that Haide Co., Ltd. is experiencing a decline in stock price and financial performance, with a current closing price of 5.59 yuan, down 2.10% [1] - The rolling price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for Haide Co. is 56.36, which is lower than the industry average of 70.45 and the industry median of 28.21, ranking 16th in the multi-financial industry [1][2] - As of the first quarter of 2025, six institutions hold shares in Haide Co., with a total holding of 149,862.38 thousand shares valued at 8.677 billion yuan [1] Group 2 - Haide Co. primarily engages in technology recovery of individual loan non-performing services, institutional distressed asset management, and quality asset management, with asset management as its main product and service [1] - The latest financial results for the first quarter of 2025 show that Haide Co. achieved an operating income of 2.21 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 36.02%, and a net profit of 970.445 million yuan, down 58.40% year-on-year, with a gross profit margin of 98.91% [1]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the positive stance on macroeconomic growth and stock market stability, which benefits the non-bank financial sector, particularly brokerage firms and financial information services [3] - The insurance sector is expected to see stable growth in liabilities and improved asset performance, with a focus on equity flexibility and economic recovery catalysts [3] Group 1: Brokerage and Multi-Financial Sector - The brokerage sector's net profit for listed firms reached 144.8 billion in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 16%, with Q1 2025 showing a significant 85% increase to 51.7 billion [4] - Brokerage firms with strong retail advantages and high dividend yields are highlighted as having attractive valuations, especially those with a net profit growth driven by brokerage and investment businesses [4] - Recommended stocks include high beta financial information service providers like Guiding Compass and Dongfang Wealth, as well as leading brokerages such as Guosen Securities and China Galaxy [4] Group 2: Insurance Sector - The insurance sector is facing pressure on both the asset and liability sides, but there is potential for stable growth in new business value (NBV) due to improved product offerings and declining liability costs [5] - The report suggests that the insurance sector's valuation remains low, with a focus on companies like China Pacific Insurance and China Life, which are expected to benefit from ongoing economic stabilization measures [5] - The anticipated increase in equity asset allocation by listed insurance companies is expected to enhance performance, particularly in the property insurance segment [5] Group 3: Market Data - The market turnover rate has remained high, with a 32% year-on-year increase in new account openings in Q1 2025, indicating strong retail investor engagement [14] - The margin financing scale reached 1.91 trillion, maintaining a high level, with trading ratios in a reasonable range [18] - New equity fund issuance in Q1 2025 reached 110.2 billion, a 102% year-on-year increase, driven by the popularity of ETF products [22]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the multi-financial sector, indicating an expectation that the sector will outperform the benchmark index [7]. Core Insights - The report highlights the implementation of the "Action Plan for Promoting High-Quality Development of Public Funds," which aims to reform the public fund industry by enhancing governance, product issuance, investment operations, and assessment mechanisms [1]. - The plan emphasizes a shift from a focus on scale to prioritizing investor returns, with a target to achieve a high-quality development "turning point" within approximately three years [1]. - The industry is expected to undergo a transformation, moving from a "scale competition" model to one that values "performance," leading to increased concentration among leading firms and differentiated competition [1]. Summary by Sections Investment Fee Reform - The plan introduces a floating management fee mechanism linked to fund performance, aiming to reduce investor costs and enhance transparency in fee structures [2][11]. - It mandates that leading institutions issue at least 60% of their actively managed equity funds as floating fee products within the next year [2][11]. Long-Term Assessment and Incentive Mechanisms - The reform requires that performance indicators for fund managers and executives have significant weight in assessments, with long-term performance being a key focus [3][12]. - The plan aims to enhance the evaluation system by increasing the weight of long-term performance metrics and investor outcomes in the assessment criteria [3][12]. Equity Investment Growth - The report stresses the need to boost the scale and proportion of equity investments within public funds, promoting innovative products that align with performance and investor returns [4][19]. - It outlines plans for expedited registration processes for various equity fund types, including ETFs and actively managed funds [4][19]. Market Consolidation and Institutional Development - The plan supports market-driven mergers and acquisitions among fund companies, aiming to enhance the capabilities of leading institutions while fostering differentiated development for smaller firms [5][18]. - It emphasizes the establishment of a first-class investment institution through improved product development and research capabilities [5][18]. Investor Service Enhancement - The report highlights the importance of improving investor services, including the launch of a centralized platform for institutional investors to access public fund investments [17]. - It outlines regulatory measures to promote standardized investment advisory services tailored to investor needs [17]. Overall Industry Outlook - The report anticipates a significant restructuring of the public fund industry, with a focus on long-term performance and investor-centric strategies, which is expected to reshape the competitive landscape [1][18].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the performance of the Hong Kong stock market (港股) in 2024, highlighting a recovery trend in overall earnings growth with a 1.2% increase in revenue and a 9.8% year-on-year growth in net profit attributable to shareholders [1][3][6]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Earnings Growth**: The second half of 2024 saw a significant acceleration in earnings, with a year-on-year increase of 13.3% [1][6]. - **Key Sectors Driving Growth**: - The information technology sector benefited from breakthroughs in AI technology, with net profit growth of 77.4% in the software and services sub-sector and 76.4% in the technology hardware and equipment sub-sector [1][10]. - The financial sector, particularly the insurance industry, experienced a 70.8% increase in net profit, while diversified financial services saw a 20.5% growth [1][10]. - The healthcare sector, including pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, and life sciences, improved profitability by nearly 20 percentage points [1][10]. - **Struggling Sectors**: The consumer sector showed weak growth, with significant declines in return on equity (ROE) for household and personal products, and food retail. The optional consumer retail sub-sector's profit growth decreased by 36 percentage points, while media and consumer services saw declines of approximately 18% and 19% respectively [1][11]. Financial Metrics - **Return on Equity (ROE)**: The ROE for Hong Kong stocks rose to 7% in 2024, up from 6.7% in the first half of the year, but still below the average of around 10% since 2016. The DuPont analysis indicated that the increase in asset turnover was the primary driver of the ROE improvement [1][7][8]. - **Revenue Trends**: The revenue growth rate for Hong Kong stocks showed signs of bottoming out, with a 1.2% increase for the year, slightly down from 1.9% in the first half of 2024 [1][5]. Comparative Analysis - **Performance vs. A-shares**: The earnings recovery speed of Hong Kong stocks is superior to that of A-shares, which reported negative growth rates of -0.2% for the year and -0.5% for the first half of 2025 in terms of revenue and -2.7% for both periods in net profit [4][6]. Future Outlook - **Support Factors for 2025**: The global technology cycle is expected to rebound, with the AI-driven industrial revolution continuing to support the performance of the information technology sector. Additionally, macroeconomic policies aimed at stabilizing growth are anticipated to benefit mainland companies, which constitute over 60% of the market [4][12].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The company's aircraft business is experiencing strong growth, and the consolidation of CAL enhances its leading position in the market [5] - In Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 171.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 99.8%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 6.7 billion yuan, up 72.2% year-on-year [7] - The company sold 34 aircraft in Q1 2025, an increase of 25 aircraft compared to the previous year, contributing approximately 7.8 billion yuan to revenue [7] - The acquisition of CAL, which has a fleet of 106 aircraft and 10 aircraft orders, is expected to further enhance the company's asset quality and revenue [7] Financial Summary - The company forecasts revenue growth from 33.675 billion yuan in 2023 to 47.621 billion yuan in 2025, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 23.91% [6] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to increase from 1.281 billion yuan in 2023 to 1.913 billion yuan in 2025, with a significant growth rate of 111.58% in 2025 [6] - The company's return on equity (ROE) is expected to rise from 2.87% in 2024 to 5.73% in 2025 [6] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 20.32 in 2024 to 9.60 in 2025, indicating improved valuation [6]

Report Overview - The report is a macro financial data daily report released by the Guomao Futures Research Institute's Macro Financial Research Center on May 7, 2025 [2][3] Central Bank Operations and Monetary Policy - The central bank conducted 405 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations yesterday, with 1087 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 682 billion yuan [3] - This week, 1617.8 billion yuan of reverse repurchases in the central bank's open market will mature, with 1087 billion yuan and 530.8 billion yuan maturing on Tuesday and Wednesday respectively [4] - The Politburo meeting stated the need to "timely cut reserve - requirement ratios and interest rates", "create new structural monetary policy tools, and establish new policy - based financial tools to support technological innovation, expand consumption, and stabilize foreign trade" [4] Interest Rate Market | Variety | Closing Price | Change from Previous Day (bp) | | --- | --- | --- | | DRO01 | 1.71 | -7.58 | | DR007 | 1.73 | -7.14 | | GC001 | 1.71 | 17.00 | | GC007 | 1.74 | 1.50 | | SHBOR 3M | 1.75 | -0.20 | | LPR 5 - year | 3.60 | 0.00 | | 1 - year Treasury Bond | 1.46 | 0.25 | | 5 - year Treasury Bond | 1.51 | 0.75 | | 10 - year Treasury Bond | 1.63 | 0.50 | | 10 - year US Treasury Bond | 4.36 | 3.00 | [3] Stock Index and Futures Market Index Performance - The CSI 300 rose 1.01% to 3808.5, the SSE 50 rose 0.55% to 2647.7, the CSI 500 rose 1.93% to 5740.3, and the CSI 1000 rose 2.57% to 6102.9 [6] - The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets reached 1336.2 billion yuan, an increase of 166.8 billion yuan from the previous trading day [6] - Most industry sectors rose, with small metals, power equipment, consumer electronics, precious metals, general equipment, communication equipment, computer equipment, diversified finance, and motor sectors leading the gains, while only the banking sector declined [6] Futures Market | Variety | Closing Price | Change from Previous Day (%) | Volume Change (%) | Open Interest Change (%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IF Current Month | 3798 | 1.2 | 22.8 | 0.9 | | IH Current Month | 2646 | 0.7 | -0.6 | 0.0 | | IC Current Month | 5706 | 2.1 | 19.0 | 3.3 | | IM Current Month | 6060 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 2.9 | [5] Market Outlook and Strategy - On the first trading day after the holiday, the A - share market showed a gap - up and high - going trend driven by the collective recovery of overseas markets, with IM leading the gains in index futures [7] - Two repair drivers are worthy of attention: the expectation of Sino - US tariff relaxation and the verification of overseas AI industry prosperity are beneficial to improving market liquidity and boosting the technology sector; after the earnings disclosure window in late April, the performance uncertainty of small - and medium - cap companies has significantly decreased [7] - The CSI 1000's repair strength has significantly lagged behind large - cap indexes such as the CSI 300. If the market continues to recover, its technical catch - up potential is worthy of attention. Historically, the average excess return of CSI 1000 index constituents during the earnings vacuum period (May - July) is 2.3% [7] - It is expected that the significant differentiation between large - and small - cap styles may converge. The strategy is to focus on the elasticity release opportunities of small - and medium - cap stocks after the market stabilizes, with IM as the main long - position variety [7] Index Futures Premium and Discount | Variety | Current Month Contract | Next Month Contract | Current Quarter Contract | Next Quarter Contract | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IF Premium/Discount | 10.49% | 9.02% | 7.04% | 5.35% | | IH Premium/Discount | 2.64% | 5.55% | 5.00% | 3.24% | | IC Premium/Discount | 22.09% | 16.72% | 11.98% | 9.90% | | IM Premium/Discount | 25.91% | 19.90% | 14.46% | 12.20% | [8]