Group 1 - Ctrip reported a revenue growth of 16% year-on-year and a net profit increase of 194.01% in Q3 2025, achieving a net profit of 199 billion yuan, surpassing Kweichow Moutai's net profit of 192.2 billion yuan [3][4] - The significant profit increase was partly due to the disposal of certain assets, including a portion of its stake in MakeMyTrip, which contributed 170.32 billion yuan in "other income" [3][4] - Ctrip's gross margin reached 81.55%, significantly higher than other major internet companies like Tencent and NetEase, which reported gross margins of 56.41% and 64.10% respectively [5][7] Group 2 - The hotel booking segment contributed 80 billion yuan in revenue, accounting for 43.72% of total revenue, marking the highest proportion in three years [9] - Ctrip's commission rates for hotels are high, with gold and special hotels facing commissions of 12% and 15% respectively, and additional fees for enhanced visibility [10][12] - Ctrip's market share in the domestic OTA market is projected to be 56% in 2024, significantly ahead of competitors like Tongcheng, Meituan, and Fliggy [12] Group 3 - Ctrip enjoys a strong competitive advantage with no significant direct competitors in the domestic OTA market, allowing it to capitalize on its market leader status [16][17] - The company has strategically invested in and partnered with potential competitors, effectively consolidating the market and reducing price competition [13][14] - Ctrip's focus on service quality has built strong customer loyalty, making it difficult for competitors to attract users away from its platform [16][17]

Core Points - Tongcheng Travel has launched an upgraded "First Flight Worry-Free" service for international flights, targeting first-time travelers using its platform [1][2] - The service is available at five major international airports, including Shanghai Hongqiao International Airport and Chengdu Tianfu International Airport, covering over 240 outbound travel destinations [2] Group 1: Service Overview - The "First Flight Worry-Free" service offers first-time travelers a verification process upon booking, providing them with international flight discount coupons worth 20-30 yuan [1] - Upon arrival at the airport, travelers can collect identification wristbands or stickers at dedicated service counters, which grant access to a range of exclusive services during their journey [1][2] Group 2: Exclusive Services - The service includes personalized travel guides covering check-in, security checks, and travel tips for first-time international travelers [2] - Travelers receive full guidance from staff at the service counters, including expedited security checks and other convenience services [2] - Some airports offer additional perks, such as priority boarding and exclusive service for flight delays at Xi'an Xianyang International Airport, free shuttle service to the boarding gate at Chengdu Tianfu International Airport, and discount vouchers at select shops in Wuhan Tianhe International Airport [2] Group 3: Market Context - The demand for international flights is increasing due to visa facilitation policies and a rise in flight availability, leading to a growing number of first-time international travelers [3] - The "First Flight Worry-Free" initiative, originally launched for domestic flights, has expanded to international flights, with 26 domestic airports participating and over 100,000 travelers served by the end of October [3]

Company Overview - Booking Holdings Inc. is a leading player in the online travel industry, offering services through brands like Booking.com, Priceline, and Agoda, and competes with Expedia and TripAdvisor [1] Stock Performance - As of now, the stock price of BKNG is approximately $4,821.97, reflecting a slight increase of about 1.13% or $53.97 from previous levels [2] - The stock has shown volatility, trading between $4,613.52 and $4,896.32 in a single day, with a yearly high of $5,839.41 and a low of $4,096.23 [3][5] - The company's market capitalization is approximately $155.43 billion, with a trading volume of 105,153 shares [3] Analyst Insights - BNP Paribas has set a price target of $6,100 for BKNG, indicating a potential upside of approximately 26.14% from the then-current stock price of $4,835.99 [2][5] - The upcoming presentation by CFO Ewout Steenbergen at the Nasdaq 53rd Investor Conference on December 9 may provide valuable insights into the company's strategies and future prospects, potentially influencing investor sentiment [4][5]

Core Insights - Booking Holdings (BKNG) is approaching a significant inflection point, with its stock price entering a historically supportive range that has previously led to substantial gains [2][3] - The stock is currently trading within the $4,529.60–$5,006.40 support band, which has historically attracted buyers and resulted in an average peak gain of 19.9% after testing this area [3] - A rebound is likely due to strong Q3 2025 results, bullish analyst sentiment, and favorable travel demand trends [4] Financial Performance - Q3 2025 results exceeded expectations, with gross bookings increasing by 14% and adjusted EPS rising by 19% [4] - Booking Holdings has demonstrated revenue growth of 13.0% over the last twelve months and an average of 17.8% over the last three years [10] - The company has a free cash flow margin of 31.9% and an operating margin of 34.5% for the last twelve months [10] Market Sentiment and Analyst Ratings - Analysts predominantly maintain "Buy" ratings for BKNG, with average price targets indicating significant upside potential [4] - Industry tailwinds, including resilient global travel demand and the rapid adoption of travel technology, contribute to a favorable market environment for the company [4] Risks and Historical Performance - BKNG has experienced significant declines in past market downturns, including a 90% drop during the Dot-Com bust and a 66% decline during the Global Financial Crisis [6] - The stock is vulnerable to sell-offs even in stable market conditions, influenced by earnings announcements and business updates [7] Valuation Metrics - BKNG is currently trading at a price-to-earnings (PE) multiple of 30.6 [10]

便捷的预订流程，继续实现国际业务的快速增长。 国内酒店价格同比增速出现企稳趋势，入境游继续高增。Q3 公司整体住宿预订营业收入同比增长 18%、环比增长 29%，主要得益于强劲的旅游需求，尤其是夏季及国庆假期期间表现突出。国内消费者 旅游需求依然旺盛，游客追求新奇、沉浸式体验，旅游需求日益多样化，北京、上海、成都等主要城市 及拉萨等偏远地区、小城市预订量均呈现增长态势。酒店价格方面，Q3 酒店价格同比降幅收窄至低个 位数，黄金周期间国内酒店价格呈上涨趋势。入境游方面， Q3 携程平台上入境游预订量同比增长超过 100%，亚太地区为主要客源地，欧洲和美国也实现强劲增长。我们继续看好政策及市场需求驱动入境 游单量保持高增。 盈利预测与投资评级：考虑到Q3 处置投资对业绩的积极影响，我们将2025 年公司经调整净利润预测从 183 亿元上调至323 亿元，维持2026/2027 年预测200/220 亿元，对应2025-2027 经调整口径PE 为 11/17/16 倍，我们继续看好公司海外业务成长，维持"买入"评级。 风险提示：短期投入增加影响盈利能力，海外份额提升不及预期，旅游需求不及预期 机构：东吴证券 研究 ...

Core Viewpoint - Dongwu Securities maintains a "Buy" rating on Trip.com Group (09961), highlighting strong growth potential in its overseas business and an upward revision of the adjusted net profit forecast for 2025 from 18.3 billion to 32.3 billion yuan [1] Recent Events - Trip.com has deepened its strategic partnership with the Turkish Tourism Promotion and Development Agency, aiming to position Turkey as a "super destination" for global travelers. Data shows that inbound flight bookings to Turkey are expected to grow by 38% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, with hotel bookings increasing by 16%. Notably, Indonesia's booking volume surged by 178% year-on-year, contributing to the rising popularity of inbound tourism in Turkey [1] International Business Growth - Outbound travel: In Q3, Trip.com's outbound hotel and flight bookings reached 140% of the same period in 2019, with a year-on-year increase of nearly 20%. During the Golden Week, bookings grew by approximately 30%. Popular destinations include Japan, South Korea, and Southeast Asia, with Europe showing significant growth, particularly in Iceland and Norway. Despite a decrease in cross-border flight prices compared to last year, they remain above pre-pandemic levels, while hotel prices have stabilized [2] - International business: Q3 saw a 60% year-on-year increase in total bookings on Trip.com, with the Asia-Pacific region being a key operational focus, growing over 50%. New markets in the Middle East and Europe also showed impressive growth. The company has achieved rapid market share growth and plans to continue investing globally, especially in the Asia-Pacific region. According to Sensor Tower data, the Trip.com app's monthly active users (MAU) outside mainland China grew by 69% year-on-year, with a 64% increase in the Asian market [2] Domestic Market Trends - Domestic hotel prices have shown signs of stabilization, with Q3 overall accommodation booking revenue increasing by 18% year-on-year and 29% quarter-on-quarter, driven by strong tourism demand, particularly during the summer and National Day holidays. There is a diverse and growing demand for unique and immersive travel experiences among domestic consumers, with increased bookings in major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, Chengdu, and even remote areas. Hotel price declines narrowed to low single digits in Q3, with an upward trend during the Golden Week. Inbound travel bookings on Trip.com increased by over 100% year-on-year in Q3, with the Asia-Pacific region as the main source market, alongside strong growth from Europe and the United States [3]

Core Viewpoint - Dongwu Securities maintains a "Buy" rating on Trip.com Group (09961), highlighting strong growth potential in its overseas business and an upward revision of adjusted net profit forecast for 2025 from 18.3 billion to 32.3 billion RMB [1] Recent Events - Trip.com Group has deepened its strategic partnership with the Turkish Tourism Promotion and Development Agency, aiming to position Turkey as a "super destination" for global travelers. Data shows that inbound flight bookings to Turkey increased by 38% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, with hotel bookings up by 16%. Notably, Indonesia's bookings surged by 178% year-on-year, contributing to the rising popularity of inbound tourism in Turkey [1] International Business Growth - Outbound travel: In Q3, Trip.com's outbound hotel and flight bookings reached 140% of the same period in 2019, with a year-on-year growth of nearly 20%. During the Golden Week, bookings increased by approximately 30%. Popular destinations included Japan, South Korea, and Southeast Asia, with significant growth in Europe, particularly in Iceland and Norway. Despite a decrease in cross-border flight prices compared to last year, prices remain above pre-pandemic levels, while hotel prices remained stable [2] - International business: Trip.com reported a 60% year-on-year increase in total bookings in Q3, with the Asia-Pacific region as a key operational focus, growing over 50%. New markets in the Middle East and Europe also showed impressive growth. The company has achieved rapid market share growth and plans to continue investing globally, especially in the Asia-Pacific region. According to Sensor Tower data, the Trip.com app's monthly active users (MAU) outside mainland China grew by 69% year-on-year, with a 64% increase in the Asian market [2] Domestic Market Performance - Domestic hotel prices have shown signs of stabilization, with Q3 overall accommodation booking revenue increasing by 18% year-on-year and 29% quarter-on-quarter, driven by strong tourism demand, particularly during the summer and National Day holiday. There is a growing diversity in tourism demand, with increased bookings in major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Chengdu, as well as in remote areas. Hotel price declines narrowed to low single digits in Q3, with an upward trend during the Golden Week. Inbound travel bookings on Trip.com increased by over 100% year-on-year in Q3, with the Asia-Pacific region as the main source market, alongside strong growth from Europe and the U.S. [3]

Core Insights - The summer travel market is poised for significant growth, with 95% of travelers expressing excitement for their summer trips, and two-thirds either planning or having already booked their travel [2] - Generation Z is expected to be the dominant demographic in the summer travel market, with a notable interest in "travel+" concepts such as educational and sports-related travel experiences [2][5] Group 1: Generation Z Travel Trends - Generation Z shows a higher travel intent this summer, with 72% of those born after 1995 and 68% of those born after 2000 planning or having booked trips, surpassing the overall population's 64% [3] - Younger travelers are increasingly interested in night tourism, with 41% of those born after 1995 willing to engage in night tourism activities, indicating a willingness to spend on such experiences [3] Group 2: "Travel+" Concepts - The "travel+" trend is emerging as a significant aspect of the travel market, with "travel+education" and "travel+sports" highlighted as key themes for summer travel [5] - In "travel+education," 42% of summer travelers plan to take children on trips, viewing travel as a "second classroom," with a higher willingness to spend on accommodations [5] - The upcoming Olympics is driving interest in "travel+sports," with 39% of travelers including outdoor sports in their plans and 80% expressing interest in the Olympics during their travels [5]

Summary of Ctrip Group's Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Ctrip Group (携程集团) - **Date**: November 21, 2025 Key Points Industry and Market Dynamics - Ctrip's domestic and outbound tourism is entering a low season, while overseas tourism is entering a peak season, with Trip.com’s revenue share expected to rise from 13% in Q3 to 17-18% in Q4, indicating a seasonal revenue structure change [2][5] - The company has not been significantly impacted by new competitors due to rational competition post-pandemic, with brands focusing on core positioning and customer loyalty rather than price wars [2][6] - The average daily rate (ADR) for hotels has shown signs of recovery, with a 15% increase in domestic hotel bookings in Q3 and a return to 2019 levels for outbound travel bookings [3][4] Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, domestic market performance was strong, particularly in leisure travel, with a 10% growth rate maintained in the first two months of Q4 [3] - Trip.com is expected to maintain over 50% growth in Q4, despite a high base from the previous year, with hotel business growth exceeding 40% of total revenue [3][4] AI Integration and Technology - Ctrip is implementing an "AI everywhere" strategy, integrating AI into its app for customer service, sales optimization, and user experience enhancement [2][7] - The company is developing an AI itinerary planning assistant that generates travel recommendations based on user inputs, aiming to improve operational efficiency and customer engagement [8][10] Revenue Structure and Commission Rates - Ctrip has no immediate plans to adjust commission rates for domestic or outbound businesses, focusing instead on market share growth [4][11] - Future commission rate increases may occur for Trip.com, currently at 8-9%, as the company prioritizes market share over immediate profitability [11] Market Recovery and Competition - The APAC market is recovering rapidly, with capacity restored to 90%, and Ctrip expects to capture more market share as some overseas OTAs have not returned to the Chinese market [13][15] - The company is focusing on high-value markets like Hong Kong and Singapore, where it has achieved profitability and is shifting marketing strategies from brand advertising to performance-based advertising [17][18] Challenges and Strategic Responses - Recent events in Japan have led to increased order cancellations, but Ctrip is adapting by promoting alternative destinations and monitoring travel trends [12] - The company is aware of the unique competitive landscape in Japan and Korea, where local OTAs dominate, and is adjusting its strategies accordingly [22][23] Future Outlook - Ctrip plans to maintain its marketing budget at current levels, with no immediate expansion expected, while anticipating a stable loss rate in 2026 [26][27] - The company is optimistic about its growth trajectory, particularly in the APAC region, and aims to leverage AI and data analytics to enhance its service offerings and operational efficiency [10][20] Additional Insights - Ctrip's focus on high-end international travel customers through Trip.com aligns with its strategy to enhance user experience and reduce reliance on third-party platforms [24][25] - The company is committed to optimizing its revenue structure by increasing the share of higher-margin segments like hotel bookings [11][19]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Ctrip Group-S (09961.HK) [1] Core Views - The report highlights the continuous expansion in overseas markets, with an optimistic outlook on the increase in international business share and profit margins [1][8] - Ctrip's international business is experiencing rapid growth, with significant increases in booking volumes, particularly in Turkey and other key markets [8] - The company's adjusted net profit forecast for 2025 has been raised from 18.3 billion to 32.3 billion RMB, reflecting strong performance and market share growth [8] Financial Projections - Total revenue is projected to grow from 44.51 billion RMB in 2023 to 76.17 billion RMB by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 9.39% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase significantly from 9.92 billion RMB in 2023 to 21.22 billion RMB in 2027, with a peak growth rate of 606.91% in 2024 [1] - Non-GAAP net profit is forecasted to rise from 13.07 billion RMB in 2023 to 22.02 billion RMB in 2027, indicating a strong growth trajectory [1] Market Data - The closing price of Ctrip Group-S is 537.50 HKD, with a market capitalization of approximately 349.13 billion HKD [5] - The stock has a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 35.19 based on the latest diluted earnings per share (EPS) [1] - The company has a price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 2.08, indicating its valuation relative to its book value [5] Operational Highlights - Ctrip's outbound travel bookings have reached 140% of the levels seen in the same period of 2019, with a year-on-year growth of nearly 20% [8] - The company has established a strategic partnership with the Turkish tourism board to promote Turkey as a global tourist destination, resulting in a 38% increase in inbound flight bookings to Turkey [8] - The report notes a stabilization in domestic hotel prices and a significant increase in inbound travel bookings, with over 100% growth year-on-year [8]