Industry Overview - The packaging industry in China has established a significant production scale and has become an important part of the manufacturing sector, covering design, production, printing, raw material supply, and machinery manufacturing [3][5] - The packaging supply chain includes upstream raw materials such as paper, plastic, glass, aluminum, and steel, as well as equipment like forming machines and filling machines [1][3] Regional Distribution - Guangdong Province has the highest concentration of packaging companies, followed by Shandong and Jiangsu, with notable enterprises like Kingfa Technology and Nine Dragons Paper in these regions [5][8] Representative Companies - Leading companies in the glass packaging sector include Shandong Pharmaceutical Glass and Zhengchuan Co., while major players in paper packaging include Dazhengda and Wanshun New Materials [8][9] - Companies like Jiamei Packaging and Yongxin Co. focus on metal packaging, with Jiamei's business heavily involved in beverage packaging [10][11] Investment Trends - Recent investment activities in the packaging industry include establishing overseas subsidiaries, horizontal acquisitions, and strategic partnerships [11] - For instance, Huayuan Holdings plans to establish a knowledge and standards innovation center for the metal packaging industry by May 2025 [11] - A significant acquisition was completed by Aori Jin, acquiring all issued shares of COFCO Packaging for approximately HKD 60.7 billion [11]

Group 1 - The State Council issued a notice to enhance employment support policies, focusing on stabilizing employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations to promote high-quality economic development [1] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology opened a feedback window for key automotive companies to address issues related to payment cycles for small and medium-sized enterprises [1] - Two departments released an action plan for metrology support for industrial productivity development from 2025 to 2030, emphasizing core metrology technologies for integrated circuits [1] Group 2 - Multiple silicon wafer companies raised their prices today, with price increases ranging from 8% to 11.7% for different sizes of wafers, amid slowing terminal demand in the domestic photovoltaic market [1] - BGI terminated the acquisition of 100% equity in Chip Semiconductor [2] - Alibaba completed the issuance of HKD 12.023 billion zero-coupon exchangeable bonds [2] - Jin'an Guoji expects a year-on-year increase of 4700% to 6300% in net profit excluding non-recurring items for the first half of the year [2] - Yandong Micro plans to reduce its stake by 1% through the National Integrated Circuit Fund and Jingguorui [2] - Muyuan Foods anticipates a year-on-year increase of 1130% to 1190% in net profit attributable to shareholders for the first half of the year [2] - Huayin Power experienced a significant short-term stock price increase, exceeding the growth of the industry and the Shanghai Composite Index [2] - Huaguang Huaneng, with no major changes in fundamentals, continues to operate primarily in the environmental protection and energy sectors [2]

Core Viewpoint - The company's performance is currently under pressure due to internal and external factors, but there are expectations for the release of synergistic effects from integration [1] Investment Highlights - The company has adjusted its earnings expectations for 2025-2026 due to uncertainties in downstream consumption trends, with new earnings expectations for 2027. The projected EPS for 2025-2027 is 0.48, 0.60, and 0.73 yuan respectively, compared to previous estimates of 0.54 and 0.58 yuan for 2025-2026. The target price is set at 13.02 yuan based on an industry average valuation of 27.0X PE for 2025, maintaining a "buy" rating [2] - In Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 358 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 18.18%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 13 million yuan, down 75.01%, and the net profit after deducting non-recurring items was 11 million yuan, down 74.55%. Sales expenses increased by 57.49% to 12.57 million yuan, primarily due to stock incentive provisions. Tax and additional charges rose by 173.66% to 7.20 million yuan, mainly due to a large stamp duty from the acquisition of Funmei Packaging Co., Ltd. Financial expenses surged by 1392.72% to 20.80 million yuan, mainly due to increased interest expenses from acquisition loans [2] Integration and Synergy - The integration with Funmei Packaging is progressing smoothly, focusing on business collaboration and management to enhance both companies' operational capabilities and competitiveness in the sterile packaging industry. Long-term synergies are expected in product design, technology development, market layout, and operational management, creating greater value for shareholders and customers [3] - The company is implementing a strategic layout of "products + services + professionalism + innovation" in 2025, accelerating the construction of a production line for the "5 billion sterile packaging materials project" to enhance capacity and improve supply chain responsiveness. There will be a focus on cost control and management optimization, promoting standardization, proceduralization, and digitization of production and management processes to improve overall operational efficiency. The company aims to expand its market presence domestically and internationally to increase market share [3]

Core Viewpoint - The company plans to change part of its fundraising investment projects, reallocating unused funds from the "Pulp Molding Environmental Tableware R&D Production Base Project" to a new project, the "Thailand Packaging Carton Production Base Construction Project" to enhance fundraising efficiency and adapt to market conditions [5][12][29]. Meeting Procedures - The shareholders' meeting will maintain order and efficiency, allowing only authorized personnel to enter [1][2]. - Shareholders must present valid identification and documents for registration [2]. - Shareholders have the right to speak, inquire, and vote during the meeting, with specific procedures for raising questions [2][4]. Voting Process - Voting will be conducted through both on-site and online methods, with a reminder service for small investors to ensure participation [3][5]. - The voting period is set for the trading hours on the day of the meeting [5]. Fundraising Project Changes - The company intends to reallocate 17,484.20 million yuan of unused funds from the previous project to the new Thailand project, which aims to establish a production base with an annual capacity of 50 million square meters of corrugated cartons [12][19]. - The original project had a total investment of 55,889.19 million yuan, but due to market conditions, the company decided to halt further investments in the second phase of the project [17][18]. New Project Overview - The Thailand project will involve a total investment of 18,800.00 million yuan, with a focus on local production to meet the growing demand in Southeast Asia [19][21]. - The project aligns with the company's strategy to enhance its presence in the Southeast Asian market, leveraging Thailand's favorable investment policies and geographical advantages [19][22]. Market Demand and Economic Viability - The global paper packaging market is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 5.50% from 2024 to 2029, with significant demand in Southeast Asia driven by e-commerce and manufacturing sectors [24][25]. - The Thailand project is expected to generate annual sales revenue of 25,000 million yuan, with a tax return on investment of 8.28% [27]. Compliance and Risk Management - The company will adhere to local regulations and collaborate with legal firms to navigate the complexities of Thai laws and regulations [28][29]. - A diversified supply chain strategy will be implemented to mitigate risks associated with logistics and local supplier capabilities [28].

今年以来，宁夏吴忠市利通区实施"一方案四清单"，围绕规划、兴业、夯基、富民等关键环节，明确了 64项年度工作任务，细化了15项主要指标，梳理项目111个，为新型工业化发展营造良好环境。 聚焦新型工业化，重大项目是推动产业升级的关键支撑。位于利通区金银滩镇装备产业园的宁夏亿晶光 电（600537）5GW光伏电池项目正有序推进。"项目计划总投资2.05亿元，引进光伏组件生产线4条，购 置激光划片机、自动焊接机、汇流条焊接等先进设备。项目达产后，将具备年产2.5GW高效电池组件的 生产能力，推动光伏产业链向高端延伸。"该项目负责人季文忠说。 以新型工业化为重点，利通区工信局建立区级领导包抓机制和企业困难问题清单销号台账制度，不定期 召开政银企座谈会和民营企业纾困解难集中办公会，为相关企业兑付加力帮扶中小微企业纾困解难政策 资金24万元，累计奖补107万元；帮助20余家企业争取宁夏融资租赁补贴、中小企业服务体系提升项目 等奖补资金超5000万元。同时，重点引进高技术含量、高附加值且低能耗的轻工纺织、装备制造产业， 规划2025年实施11个工业项目，总投资超8.77亿元，加快培育产业集群，推动工业转型升级发展。 利通区 ...

Group 1: Core Insights - The report highlights the rise of emotional consumption in the IP derivative products sector, driven by the increasing willingness to pay for emotional value and the rapid spread of modern media [7][26][32] - The new tobacco trend is gaining momentum, with companies like Philip Morris International leading the transition towards a "smokeless future," indicating a global shift in the tobacco industry [8] - Innovations in supply and channel transformations are providing new opportunities for domestic brands in the personal care sector, with companies like Baiya and Dengkang leveraging differentiated products to enhance brand growth [9] Group 2: Industry Summaries - The home furnishing sector is expected to maintain a weak but stable state, with a focus on high-dividend investments in leading companies as supply gradually exits the market [10] - The paper industry is anticipated to see a gradual balance between supply and demand, with a potential recovery in the cycle as new supply pressures ease [11] - In the packaging industry, high-dividend stocks like Yutong Technology and Yongxin Co. are favored, with expectations of improved profitability in the metal packaging sector due to industry consolidation [12] Group 3: Electric Two-Wheelers and Exports - The electric two-wheeler market is projected to experience significant short-term growth, with companies like Yadi Holdings expected to see a net profit increase of over 55% in the first half of 2025 [13] - Despite uncertainties in tariff policies, there are opportunities for growth in the export sector, particularly for labor-intensive light industrial products that are unlikely to return to the U.S. market [14]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the growth certainty amidst fluctuations in the light industry manufacturing sector, particularly focusing on the export chain narrative becoming clearer [2] - The report highlights the stability in paper prices and the potential recovery in the pulp and paper sector, with specific companies recommended for investment [2][3] - The report discusses the impact of new tariffs on exports from Vietnam to the U.S. and suggests that this may lead to a recovery in order placements [3] - The report notes the challenges in the new tobacco sector due to increased compliance scrutiny in the U.S. and suggests potential beneficiaries of this trend [4] - The report outlines the performance of various sectors including e-commerce, electrical lighting, and home furnishings, indicating growth opportunities and strategic expansions [7][9][10] Summary by Sections Pulp and Paper - Pulp prices are stabilizing with South American bleached eucalyptus pulp prices at $500-510 per ton, and domestic pulp mills are facing rising costs [2] - Companies like Sun Paper and Xianhe are recommended for their integrated pulp and paper operations and profitability improvements [2] Exports - The recent tariff agreement between the U.S. and Vietnam is expected to enhance order placements and stabilize the export chain [3] - Companies with strong global layouts and those facing short-term performance pressures are highlighted for potential investment [3] New Tobacco - The U.S. FDA is increasing compliance checks, leading to a significant drop in e-cigarette shipments, which may benefit compliant companies [4] E-commerce - "Jiao Ge Peng You" reported impressive sales during the 618 shopping festival, indicating a successful technology-driven retail strategy [7] Electrical Lighting & Smart Home - Bull Group's international strategy is yielding results with significant sales in Germany, while other companies are exploring high-end markets [9] Home Furnishings - The launch of new product systems by "Bei Wo" and the anticipated restart of national subsidies are expected to boost consumer confidence in home furnishings [10] Consumer Products - The report notes a divergence in growth trends within the personal care sector, with certain brands showing strong performance [11] Gold and Jewelry - The demand for boutique gold jewelry is strengthening, with stable gold prices expected to support overall industry recovery [12][13] Two-Wheel Vehicles - Tao Tao Vehicle's strong profit forecast indicates growth potential in the electric vehicle sector [14] Cross-Border E-commerce - Companies like Xiao Shang Pin Cheng and Ji Hong are expected to perform well as tariff uncertainties diminish [15] Packaging - Yongxin and Yutong Technology are projected to maintain steady growth, with a focus on functional and differentiated materials [16]

证券研究报告·固定收益·固收周报 固收周报 20250706 关于 25 年下半年转债策略的三点思考 2025 年 07 月 06 日 证券分析师 李勇 执业证书：S0600519040001 010-66573671 liyong@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 陈伯铭 执业证书：S0600523020002 chenbm@dwzq.com.cn 相关研究 《日本居民财富配置 30 年变迁—低 利率时代系列（六）》 2025-07-03 《利柏转债：工业模块化制造龙头》 2025-07-03 [Table_Summary] ◼ 上周（0630－0704）海外避险情绪整体回落，美债跌美股涨，其中科技 股由于盈利预期改善领涨，外围以伊冲突止战、美越贸易协议达成，越 南全方面对美国开放市场，存在一定示范效应，市场信心得到提振；同 时 6 月非农数据虽然不及预期，但市场增加年内联储降息押注， fedwatch 显示目前 7 月降息概率升至 27.4%，9 月降息概率高达 78%。 美债收益率整体仍在寻找趋势，继上上周波段下探后，上周受避险情绪 整体回落影响，转而上行，我们仍认为美债仍存在较强配置吸引力，期 限上 ...

Market Overview - The main funds in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets experienced a net outflow of 23.655 billion yuan, with the ChiNext board seeing a net outflow of 11.352 billion yuan and the CSI 300 index stocks experiencing a net outflow of 6.758 billion yuan [1] Stock Performance - Forest Packaging had the highest limit-up order volume, reaching 545,800 hands, followed by Jin Yi Culture, Huayin Power, and Shaan Energy with limit-up orders of 314,500 hands, 235,800 hands, and 214,800 hands respectively [2] - In terms of limit-up order funds, ten stocks had orders exceeding 100 million yuan, with Forest Packaging, Jin An Guo Ji, Hopson, and Huayin Power leading with 495 million yuan, 150 million yuan, 144 million yuan, and 144 million yuan respectively [2] Digital Currency Sector - The digital currency concept saw significant gains, with stablecoins, cross-border payments, and other fintech-related concepts rising on July 4 [3] - Companies like Desheng Technology are actively participating in digital currency projects, including the Beijing Minsheng Card, which integrates digital RMB [4] - Jingbeifang is involved in the system construction for digital currencies and is exploring stablecoin applications [4] Innovative Pharmaceuticals - Companies such as Seli Medical and Rejing Bio are making strides in innovative drug development, with Seli Medical's new drug application being accepted by the National Medical Products Administration [5] - Rejing Bio is focusing on antibody and nucleic acid drugs through strategic investments in innovative pharmaceutical companies [5] Printed Circuit Board (PCB) Industry - Jin An Guo Ji reported a revenue of 168 million yuan from its PCB business in 2024, marking a year-on-year growth of 32.81% [6] - Aoshikang specializes in high-precision PCB development and production, targeting high-value products in AI servers, automotive electronics, and high-frequency communication devices [7]

Group 1 - The 2025 iPDF International Future Packaging Exhibition was held from July 3-5 at the Guangzhou Airport Expo Center, focusing on "international, professional, exploration, and future" as its core themes, showcasing the entire supply chain of cosmetic packaging [1] - The exhibition aims to promote deep communication and efficient cooperation among the upstream and downstream of the industry by displaying cutting-edge packaging technologies and innovations [3] - Major global packaging companies such as Amcor and Selig Group participated, showcasing the latest applications of new materials and technologies in the cosmetic packaging sector [3] Group 2 - Domestic companies like Mington Packaging have established partnerships with brands such as Aier Doctor and Longliqi, with foreign trade accounting for 30% of their business, exporting to countries like the USA, South Korea, and Japan [3] - Guangdong Nite Packaging's foam pump technology has broken foreign patent monopolies and has received global patent certifications, leading to collaborations with well-known brands like Unilever and Winona [5] - Guangdong Shengwei Glass Technology focuses on original design to differentiate itself in a competitive market, providing customized glass packaging solutions and collaborating with brands like Memfa and Pianzaihuang [5] Group 3 - Companies like Suzhou Taiyu and Zhejiang Youqian are focusing on the development of specialty materials, creating a complete ecological loop from raw materials to finished products [6] - The exhibition featured over 20 special events, including forums on new materials and processes, gathering experts from companies like Milliken and Procter & Gamble to discuss innovations in material performance and brand value transmission [8] - The second Beauty Cross-Border E-commerce Conference was held concurrently, focusing on emerging markets in Southeast Asia, Latin America, the Middle East, and Russia, providing a full-link solution for brands [8]