智通财经1月29日讯（编辑 夏军雄）周四，美股股指期货小幅走高，投资者正在权衡多家大型科技公司 发布的财报，以及美联储最新的利率决定。欧洲主要指数普遍上涨。 （来源：英为财情） 据报道，英伟达、亚马逊与微软正在商讨向OpenAI投资高达600亿美元，英伟达投资至多300亿美元， 融资前OpenAI估值可能达7300亿美元。 Meta在盘前交易中大涨9%，此前该公司给出了好于预期的一季度销售指引。同为"科技七巨 头"（Magnificent Seven）成员的特斯拉股价也上涨2%，其第四季度业绩超出市场预期。 不过，微软股价下跌近7%，限制了大盘涨幅。微软报告称，第二财季云业务增长放缓，同时对第三财 季的营业利润率给出了偏弱的指引。 目前，投资者将目光转向苹果，该公司计划于周四美股收盘后公布财报。 在其他财报方面，卡特彼勒盘前股价上涨逾1%，这家工业巨头公布的第四季度业绩大幅好于华尔街预 期。 美联储周三维持利率不变，符合市场预期。联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）表示，多项指标显示"经济 活动正以稳健的步伐扩张"，失业率"已显现出一定的稳定迹象"。 根据芝商所美联储利率观察工具，市场目前仍预计今年会有两次幅度为2 ...

1. 1月29日(周四)美股盘前，美股三大股指 期货齐涨。截至发稿，道指期货涨0.12%，标普期货涨 0.22%，纳指期货涨0.19%。 2. 截至发稿，欧洲股市主要指数涨跌互现。欧洲斯托克50指数涨0.48%，英 国富时100指数涨0.78%，法国CAC40指数涨0.51%，德国DAX30指数跌0.77%。 3. 截至发稿，WTI原油 涨2.37%，报64.71美元/桶。布伦特原油涨2.17%，报68.83美元/桶。纽交所 黄金涨4.1%，报5559.4美元/ 盎司。 市场消息 1、黑石集团筹备史上规模最大的IPO项目之一。 2、路透调查显示，铜市场2026年将 出现23.85万吨供应缺口，2027年缺口预计为11.6万吨。 3、国际现货黄金上方空单密集，美日下方多单 较远。 4、沙特和阿联酋在黄金贸易领域爆发地缘竞争，沙特拟从苏丹购买黄金挑战阿联酋主导地位。 个股消息 1、微软面临多重利空：Azure增速放缓、Xbox硬件收入同比下滑32%、诉讼案件频发、资本 开支375亿超预期、净利润依赖OpenAI；摩根大通等多家投行下调其目标价。 2、美国稀土USAR.O宣 布完成15亿美元私募融资。 3、特斯拉T ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 3.50% to 3.75%, pausing the rate cuts that began in September 2025, aligning with market expectations [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - Current indicators show that U.S. economic activity is expanding at a steady pace, with employment growth at low levels but a stabilizing unemployment rate [1] - Inflation levels remain high, and uncertainty regarding the U.S. economic outlook is still significant [1] - The unemployment rate is stabilizing around 4.4%, expected to remain below 4.5% in the first half of 2026, indicating insufficient employment pressure to support rate cuts [2] Group 2: Federal Reserve's Stance - The Federal Reserve's statement and Chairman Powell's remarks indicate a more optimistic view of the current economic situation, which is the primary reason for pausing rate cuts [1] - There were two dissenting votes from Fed governors advocating for a 25 basis point rate cut, reflecting some internal disagreement on the decision [2] - The Fed is expected to enter a data observation period to assess the effects of previous rate cuts, particularly focusing on economic and inflation data [2] Group 3: Future Projections - The Federal Reserve is likely to maintain a slow pace of rate cuts, with inflation becoming a central consideration for monetary policy [3] - The next potential rate cut is anticipated around June 2026, with expectations of one to two rate cuts throughout the year, totaling around 50 basis points [3]

↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者： 聪明投资者 来源：雪球 沃尔特·施洛斯是美国最杰出的价值投资者之一，他被同门师兄、好友沃伦·巴菲特称为"超级投资者"。 1934年，施洛斯在华尔街找到了第一份工作——跑单员。他曾师从价值投资开山鼻祖本杰明·格雷厄姆，1946年开始为老师工作，直到1955年自立 门户，成立沃尔特J·施洛斯合伙人公司。 在47年管理合伙公司期间，他为客户赢得了20%的年复合回报率（扣费前）。而同期标普500指数经历了起起伏伏的牛熊跌宕， 巴菲特曾这样评价他："沃尔特知道如何识别那些售价远低于其价值的证券，这就是他所做的一切。他持有的股票数量比我多得多，而且对企业的 内在本质远没有我感兴趣。我似乎对沃尔特没什么影响力，这正是他的优点之一。" 沃尔特·施洛斯说，"我们就是买便宜的股票，没别的。" 这是沃尔特·施洛斯的故事。一个在近半个世纪里持续跑赢市场，却从未试图借此成名的人。 他没有登上头条，也没有写出畅销书。他既没有经营对冲基金，也没有在CNBC亮相。事实上，你甚至可能在街头与他擦肩而过，却永远不会 ...

抖音又出现了"一夜爆红"的带货新星。 2026年1月，北京嫣然天使儿童医院因房租纠纷累计欠款超 2600 万的事件引发全网关注。该院作为国内首家唇腭裂专项非营利医院，14 年间完成1.1万例 手术（含7000例免费救助），却因 2019 年房租上调、2020年疫情冲击陷入经营困境。 事件曝光后，医院创始人李亚鹏在抖音直播间创下惊人战绩：账号近一个月涨粉超350万，单场直播销售额达7500万-1亿元，累计观看人数超过2400万， 热度碾压 @与辉同行，登顶总榜，带货的品牌 "见山烧" 因订单远超产能暂停销售30天。 图源：抖音 直播销售额飞涨，源自众多网友的"公开投票"。危机事件提供了天然的流量入口，医院欠租细节（房租从44万/月涨至80万/月）、众多住院患儿的困 境、"站好最后一班岗" 的真诚回应，激发了公众广泛而深刻的共情，网友直言 "买的不是茶叶，是孩子的手术费"。 李亚鹏带货能填上房租窟窿吗？情绪性消费又能否助推李亚鹏成为新的抖音"一哥"？ 一场危机引发的社会援助 李亚鹏直播间爆火，是一场由公益危机引发、经真诚回应发酵、最终在直播间落地的情绪共鸣，其关键节点清晰可溯，每一步都踩中公众情绪的痛点。 此前， ...

Core Viewpoint - The increasing speculation around Rick Reed, BlackRock's Chief Investment Officer, potentially succeeding Jerome Powell as the Federal Reserve Chair is leading to significant bets on a shift towards a dovish monetary policy by the Fed [1][2]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Bond futures traders are heavily betting on the Fed adopting a more aggressive rate cut path, with the trading volume in interest rate futures linked to the federal funds rate and secured overnight financing rate reaching historical highs [1]. - The market anticipates that the Fed will maintain its current policy during the upcoming monetary policy meeting, with a focus on the press conference that will address political pressures and the Fed Chair's future plans [1][2]. Group 2: Rick Reed's Potential Policies - If appointed, Reed is expected to implement a market-centric policy approach, advocating for more aggressive rate cuts than the Fed's typical 25 basis points, as he previously suggested a 50 basis point cut [2]. - Economists predict that Reed's dovish stance could lead to three rate cuts by the Fed this year, based on his views on productivity, inflation dynamics, and labor market pressures [2]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Predictions - The betting odds for Reed's appointment have risen to approximately 47%, significantly higher than other candidates, indicating strong market sentiment towards his potential leadership [3]. - The interest rate swap market currently indicates that the Fed may implement less than two 25 basis point cuts by 2026, while the secured overnight financing rate options market shows a surge in bets for multiple rate cuts, targeting a federal funds rate drop to 1.5% [2]. Group 4: Options Market Activity - Significant trading activity has been observed in secured overnight financing rate options, particularly for contracts expiring in 2026, indicating a growing risk exposure among traders [4][5]. - The highest open interest in the options market is concentrated around the 96.50 strike price, with various bullish and bearish strategies being employed [5]. Group 5: Treasury Market Dynamics - The premiums for put options on long-term U.S. Treasuries have shown considerable volatility, reaching their lowest levels since September last year during a period of Treasury sell-off [6]. - As the U.S. Treasury market stabilizes, the premium levels are gradually returning to a neutral range, reflecting changing market conditions [6].

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Suzhou High-tech has made an indirect investment in Magic Atom Robotics through the Yu Xin Fund, which is co-funded by its wholly-owned investment management company and a joint venture company, Su Gao Xin Venture Capital [2] - The company holds a low percentage of shares in Magic Atom Robotics, indicating that the related business scale will not have a significant impact on the overall performance of the company [2]

Core Viewpoint - The market is expected to shift from "expectation speculation" in 2025 to "performance verification" in 2026, with a focus on structural opportunities despite potential volatility [1] Equity Market - The A-share market is anticipated to exhibit a range-bound pattern in 2026, supported by global liquidity easing and RMB appreciation, with an emphasis on structural opportunities [2] - Technology growth is identified as a key sector for the year, driven by the accelerating penetration of AI, which will boost demand across semiconductor equipment, materials, and storage [2] - Three main areas for investment are highlighted: 1. High-growth sectors including CPU and optical communication, alongside non-ferrous metals like copper, aluminum, gold, and rare earths, benefiting from strategic metal demand and supply constraints [2] 2. Recovery sectors such as aviation and tourism, showing signs of improvement, with low valuation stocks in chemicals and construction materials poised for significant price elasticity [3] 3. Thematic investments in commercial aerospace, solid-state batteries, and AR healthcare, with a focus on order fulfillment and revenue growth [3] - Precious metals are expected to continue their bull market, supported by central bank and ETF purchases, alongside safe-haven demand [3] Bond Market - The bond market is projected to experience a "low-level wide fluctuation" pattern, with a focus on defensive strategies and some flexibility [4] - Key factors influencing interest rate fluctuations include the pace of economic demand recovery, real estate risks, and inflation narratives [4] - Specific strategies for bond types include: - City investment bonds, where the pricing logic is shifting from "guaranteed repayment" to "state-owned enterprise credit," necessitating a focus on risk management [5] - Convertible bonds, where supply-demand mismatches create opportunities for stock selection and index enhancement [5] - REITs, which require careful selection for new issues and attention to secondary market pricing opportunities [5] Quantitative Strategy - The outlook for quantitative strategies in 2026 is optimistic, driven by liquidity, factor effectiveness recovery, and market rotation [6] - Sufficient liquidity is noted, with market trading volumes nearing 40 trillion, providing a conducive environment for quantitative strategies [6] - The return of factor effectiveness is expected to support stock selection and judgment, as corporate earnings are projected to recover [6] - Market rotation across themes such as technology and cyclical sectors is anticipated to create opportunities for excess returns through style rotation strategies [6]

After having been in the investing world for more than 25 years from private banking and investment management to private and venture capital; I have pretty much "been there and done that" at one point or another. I am currently a partner at RIA Advisors in Houston, Texas. The majority of my time is spent analyzing, researching and writing commentary about investing, investor psychology and macro-views of the markets and the economy. My thoughts are not generally mainstream and are often contrarian in natur ...

Market Overview - Global markets experienced significant volatility on Monday due to geopolitical risks, the U.S. fiscal deadlock, and threats of currency market intervention, leading to intense risk-off trading [1] - The market displayed extreme risk-averse characteristics, with a substantial influx of funds into precious metals as investor confidence in sovereign bonds and fiat currencies waned [1] Precious Metals - Spot gold rose over 1% during the day, reaching $5,037 per ounce, while spot silver briefly surpassed $106 per ounce, with an intraday increase of nearly 3% [1][2] - The recent surge in gold prices reflects deep-seated market fears, with gold prices doubling over the past two years and increasing by 15% this year alone [15] Currency Market - The Japanese yen rebounded sharply amid expectations of intervention, with the dollar index falling by 0.52% [1][6] - The dollar against the yen dropped by 0.89% to 154.32, currently trading around 154.77, while the euro against the dollar rose by 0.52% to 1.1888 [1][6] Risk Assets - Risk assets faced pressure, with Nikkei index futures initially down by 2.6%, Nasdaq futures dropping over 1%, and S&P 500 futures declining by 0.75% [1][11] - The probability of a U.S. government shutdown by January 31 has surged to 75%, driven by internal fiscal instability and recent events affecting budget negotiations [16] Natural Gas Market - U.S. natural gas futures prices surged by 16% due to a winter storm impacting the region, which is expected to increase heating demand [1][17]