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5月份中国物流景气指数为50.6% 全国物流业务需求保持扩张态势
Zheng Quan Ri Bao· 2025-06-05 16:27
Core Viewpoint - The logistics industry in China shows signs of continued expansion, with the logistics prosperity index for May 2025 at 50.6%, indicating stable demand in both consumer and industrial logistics sectors [1] Group 1: Logistics Prosperity Index - The logistics prosperity index for May 2025 is 50.6%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points from April [1] - The total business volume index remains in the expansion range at 50.6%, with all three major regions showing expansion [1] - The central region's business volume index is 51.1%, and the western region's is 52.8%, both above the national level [1] Group 2: Sector Performance - The postal and express delivery industry has a business volume index of 69.4%, up 0.8 percentage points month-on-month [2] - Road transportation maintains an expansion trend with a business volume index of 51.3%, while inventory turnover for road transport is at 43.6%, up 0.2 percentage points [2] - The railway transportation index is at 54.2%, indicating stable demand for bulk energy transport [2] Group 3: Microeconomic Indicators - The enterprise fund turnover rate index has remained above 50% for nine consecutive months, averaging 50.7% in the first five months of the year, which is 0.5 percentage points higher than the same period last year [3] - In May, the fund turnover rate index increased by 0.3 percentage points, with small and micro enterprises seeing a 0.4 percentage point rise [3] Group 4: Investment and Market Outlook - Fixed asset investment completion index rose by over 0.5 percentage points in May, with specific increases in road transport, postal delivery, aviation, and water transport sectors [4] - The business activity expectation index has remained above 55% for three consecutive months, indicating a generally optimistic market outlook [4] - Companies are optimistic about future logistics infrastructure investments and key sectors such as intermodal transport and high-end manufacturing logistics services [4]
“抢出口”带动制造业PMI回暖——2025年5月PMI点评
EBSCN· 2025-06-01 00:20
Group 1: Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI for May 2025 is reported at 49.5%, a 0.5 percentage point increase from the previous month, aligning with market expectations[2][4] - The production index rose to 50.7%, up 0.9 percentage points from last month, indicating a recovery in production activities[5][14] - New orders index increased to 49.8%, up 0.6 percentage points, reflecting improved demand conditions[5][14] - High-tech manufacturing PMI stands at 50.9%, while energy-intensive industries continue to decline, with a PMI of 47.0%[6][19] Group 2: Service and Construction Sectors - The service sector PMI slightly increased to 50.2%, driven by the "May Day" holiday effect, with significant activity in tourism and hospitality[31][32] - The construction sector PMI is at 51.0%, down 0.9 percentage points, indicating a slowdown in expansion due to housing demand constraints, although infrastructure projects are accelerating[35][36] - Special bonds issuance in May reached 443.2 billion yuan, significantly higher than April's 230.1 billion yuan, supporting investment in infrastructure[35]
5月PMI数据点评:关注“抢出口”之下的预期差
Huachuang Securities· 2025-05-31 15:32
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In May 2025, the temporary easing of China-US trade negotiations led to the release of previously postponed production demand, driving the PMI to rise. However, there is still uncertainty about the tariff outlook, and the recovery of new orders is relatively slow. The domestic off - season effect is becoming more prominent, and the contribution of domestic demand to new order growth has decreased compared to April [3][9]. - For the bond market, the fundamental conditions still provide support. Considering the historical experience of trade frictions from 2018 - 2019, there may be fluctuations in subsequent tariff policy negotiations. The uncertainty of external conditions may affect expectations, production, and inventory - stocking intentions and rhythms. The "rush - to - export" elasticity in May is not significantly higher than that in April, and the year - on - year increase in May's exports may be lower than expected. In the traditional off - season, the potential for unexpected growth in domestic demand in May is limited, so the bond market is still supported. Attention should be paid to the data verification in June and potential "expectation gaps" [3][41]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Manufacturing PMI: External Disturbances Ease, PMI Moderately Recovers 3.1.1 Supply and Demand: Tariff Disturbances Ease, Production Accelerates Recovery - In May, production increased by 0.9 pct month - on - month to 50.7%, returning to the expansion range. The easing of Sino - US economic and trade negotiations in mid - May slowed the decline in exports, and the demand for existing foreign trade orders was released in an orderly manner, accelerating the production and procurement rhythms compared to April. The procurement volume index increased by 1.3 pct month - on - month to 47.6%, and imports increased by 3.7 pct month - on - month to 47.1%, with the decline significantly narrowing [16]. - Demand stabilized in May, and new orders improved moderately. New orders increased by 0.6 pct month - on - month to 49.8% but remained in the contraction range. After the easing of trade negotiations, export orders recovered marginally, reducing the contraction of new orders. However, the difference between "new orders - new export orders" narrowed, and domestic demand orders decreased due to the off - season, which may limit the recovery of new orders [19]. 3.1.2 Foreign Trade: Negotiations Ease, New Export Orders are Concentratedly Released - In May, the easing of tariff negotiations led to the release of overseas order increments. New export orders and imports increased by 2.8 pct and 3.7 pct month - on - month to 47.5% and 47.1% respectively, with their elasticity restored. Combining the month - on - month changes in April and May, both were better than the same period in previous years, indicating a wider improvement in the foreign trade prosperity of manufacturing enterprises in May [26]. 3.1.3 Price: External Disturbances Narrow, Price Decline Slows - In May, the impact of the traditional off - season became more evident, and the prices of upstream bulk commodities remained weak, causing prices to decline slightly. The purchase price of raw materials and the ex - factory price both decreased by 0.1 pct month - on - month to 46.9% and 44.7% respectively. Although the price continued to weaken marginally, the narrowing of external disturbances slowed the price decline [31]. 3.1.4 Inventory: Increased Procurement Boosts Raw Material Replenishment, and Products are Rapidly De - stocked - In May, with the acceleration of procurement, raw material inventories increased, and downstream de - stocking accelerated. The easing of the negotiation situation accelerated the shipment of downstream exports, and finished product inventories decreased by 0.8 pct month - on - month to 46.5%. As the production rhythm recovered, the material procurement volume increased month - on - month, and raw material inventories increased by 0.4 pct month - on - month to 47.4% [35]. 3.2 Non - manufacturing PMI: The Drag of Real Estate Construction May Continue to Expand, and the Service Industry during the Holiday Season Shows Many Highlights - In May, the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.3%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.1 pct. Among them, the service industry PMI increased by 0.1 pct month - on - month to 50.2%, and the construction industry PMI decreased by 0.9 pct month - on - month to 51.0%, with the expansion continuing to slow due to the drag of real estate construction demand [36]. 3.2.1 Construction Industry - In May, the construction industry PMI continued to decline, while infrastructure demand further strengthened. The new export orders of civil engineering construction rose above 60%, significantly driving the industry PMI to climb for two consecutive months and reach above 62%. The easing of trade negotiations boosted the acceleration of overseas infrastructure investment to some extent. However, the overall construction industry PMI continued to decline, indicating that the activity rhythm of the housing construction industry may have further contracted in May [2][36]. 3.2.2 Service Industry - Holiday consumption boosted the improvement of the service industry PMI. In May, the expansion of the service industry PMI accelerated slightly. The production and new order indices of the information service industry maintained strong expansion. The release of consumption demand during the May Day holiday significantly increased the month - on - month PMI of railway, air, and water transportation industries. The accommodation and catering industries rose above the boom - bust line, ending three consecutive months of contraction [2][36].
2025年5月PMI点评:“抢出口”带动制造业PMI回暖
EBSCN· 2025-05-31 14:31
Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI for May 2025 is reported at 49.5%, a significant increase of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, aligning with market expectations[2][4] - The production index rose to 50.7%, up 0.9 percentage points from last month, indicating a recovery in production activities[5][14] - New orders index increased to 49.8%, up 0.6 percentage points, reflecting improved demand conditions[5][14] - High-energy industries continue to decline, with the PMI dropping to 47.0%, down 0.7 percentage points, indicating ongoing challenges in these sectors[6] External Trade - The new export orders index rose to 47.5%, a significant increase of 2.8 percentage points, indicating a recovery in export activities following tariff reductions[21] - The import index increased to 47.1%, up 3.7 percentage points, suggesting improved import conditions[21] Service Sector - The service sector PMI increased slightly to 50.2%, up 0.1 percentage points, remaining in the expansion zone, driven by increased tourism and hospitality activities during the May Day holiday[31] Construction Sector - The construction PMI is at 51.0%, down 0.9 percentage points, indicating a slowdown in expansion primarily due to weakened housing demand, although infrastructure projects are accelerating[35] - Special bond issuance has increased significantly, with 443.2 billion yuan issued in May, up from 230.1 billion yuan in April, supporting investment in infrastructure[35]
突发!美国、欧洲,重大变局!
券商中国· 2025-05-31 03:43
美国与欧盟的贸易谈判传来最新消息。 当地时间5月30日,欧盟委员会负责贸易和经济安全等事务的委员谢夫乔维奇与美国商务部长卢特尼克通话, 强调持续合作推动前瞻性解决方案,试图就双方贸易谈判进行沟通。据美媒报道,欧盟希望美国取消对钢铁和 汽车征收的25%关税,并希望美国总统特朗普放弃所谓的"对等关税"。 与此同时,欧盟委员会贸易委员东布罗夫斯基斯当天表示,近期美国法院对特朗普政府"对等关税"合法性的裁 决,给本已复杂的贸易环境再添一层不确定性。当前贸易谈判环境已充满变数,形势瞬息万变。 目前围绕关税的"司法大战"正面临较大的变数,包括美国企业在内的全球企业因"关税战"造成的损失也在持续 增加。据最新报道,因特朗普政府关税政策导致的成本上升和销售减少,全球主要大型企业的损失已经达到了 340亿美元。 关税的变数 据央视新闻客户端,当地时间30日,欧盟委员会负责贸易和经济安全等事务的委员塞夫科维奇与美国商务部长 卢特尼克通话,强调持续合作推动前瞻性解决方案,试图就双方贸易谈判进行沟通。 另据路透社报道,塞夫科维奇在社交平台上发帖称:"我们投入了充足的时间和精力,因为提供前瞻性的解决 方案仍然是欧盟的首要任务。我们将保 ...
C919运营航线持续“上新” 跨境航线迈出国际化步伐 | 两周年“成绩单”梳理↓
Yang Shi Wang· 2025-05-28 06:40
央视网消息:5月28日是国产大飞机C919商业运营两周年。两年来,运营航线持续"上新",最近一周,就陆续开通上海至深圳和厦门两条新航 线。航线网络覆盖中国16个城市,规模化运营全面加快。 两年间,C919不仅实现了首次商业运营,并投入繁忙的京沪航线,还第一次服务了春运,第一次飞出国门亮相新加坡航展广受好评。 从2023年5月28日全球首架交付的C919成功完成首次商业载客飞行起,国产大飞机的商业运营已满两年。C919运行技术状态正常,安全飞行表 现良好,日利用率等指标稳步提升,综合运营能力得到全面检验。 国产大飞机C919投入商业运营两年来,航线网络不断扩展,安全运营保障和服务水平进一步提升。在京沪、沪深等高收益航线上稳定运营, 不断满足我国民航市场的发展需求。 日前,国产大飞机C919正式开启上海至厦门航线的常态化商业运营。随着厦门加入C919航线网络,两年来,C919的服务范围已覆盖中国大陆 15个城市,并通过上海至香港的跨境航线迈出了国际化步伐。 目前,国航、东航、南航共18架C919飞机投入商业运营,执飞20余条商业航线,安全飞行超3.6万小时,累计运输旅客超过205万人次。 而随着C919规模化运营 ...
从默默无闻到全球焦点:这一国家如何凭借中国游客重塑旅游业?
Guan Cha Zhe Wang· 2025-05-27 08:39
【文/观察者网 王勇 编辑/赵乾坤】 据国际旅游行业媒体《旅行与旅游世界》日前报道,中国旅行者是申请克罗地亚签证的最大群体之一, 2024年来自中国旅行者的申请数量为8125份,获得通过的数量为7838份,通过率为96.4%。克罗地亚对 中国游客的吸引力在于其丰富的人文历史、自然风光及建筑遗产。 报道称,克罗地亚被誉为亚得里亚海上的"璀璨明珠",其正在努力成为促进欧洲旅游业发展的关键参与 者。随着中国出境旅游市场的强劲增长,克罗地亚也在着力吸引中国游客。 旅行者可以探索斯普利特地下酒窖、古寺庙和狭窄的小巷,走在这样的街巷仿佛置身于远古的罗马时 代。 除了深厚的人文历史和建筑艺术外,生态和自然风光同样令全球游客着迷,比如以16个层叠瀑布和被森 林环绕而闻名的普利特维采湖国家公园、以徒步旅行和水上运动著称的卡尔卡国家公园、以自然美景和 休闲生活方式而闻名的赫瓦尔岛、以色彩斑斓的海滨和狭窄的鹅卵石街道深受情侣旅行者喜爱的罗维尼 小镇以及古老与现代并存的小城扎达尔等。 报道称,受中国、土耳其、印尼和南非等关键客源市场的推动,克罗地亚正在成为国际旅行者寻求多样 化体验的必游目的地。 据加拿大《旅游周刊》报道,在国际旅游 ...
中国国航(601111)5月26日主力资金净流入1.07亿元
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-26 07:21
金融界消息 截至2025年5月26日收盘,中国国航(601111)报收于8.12元,上涨3.44%,换手率0.77%, 成交量89.32万手,成交金额7.19亿元。 天眼查商业履历信息显示,中国国际航空股份有限公司,成立于2006年,位于北京市,是一家以从事航 空运输业为主的企业。企业注册资本1620079.2838万人民币,实缴资本1452481.5185万人民币。公司法 定代表人为马崇贤。 通过天眼查大数据分析,中国国际航空股份有限公司共对外投资了26家企业,参与招投标项目5000次, 知识产权方面有商标信息1942条,专利信息104条,此外企业还拥有行政许可203个。 来源:金融界 资金流向方面,今日主力资金净流入1.07亿元,占比成交额14.81%。其中,超大单净流入5575.07万 元、占成交额7.75%,大单净流入5075.98万元、占成交额7.06%,中单净流出流出5330.46万元、占成交 额7.41%,小单净流出5320.58万元、占成交额7.4%。 中国国航最新一期业绩显示,截至2025一季报,公司营业总收入400.23亿元、同比减少0.11%,归属净 利润204399.30万元,同比减少 ...
生产不弱,需求较稳:2025年4月经济数据点评
Tebon Securities· 2025-05-22 04:48
Economic Overview - The macroeconomic environment in April 2025 shows a steady improvement, with industrial production growing robustly and manufacturing investment increasing by 8.8% in the first four months, effectively offsetting a decline in real estate investment, which fell by 10.3%[5] - Social retail sales for January to April increased by 4.7% year-on-year, supported by the effects of trade and tourism[5] - Industrial added value rose by 6.4% year-on-year in the first four months, with strong performance in equipment manufacturing[5] Investment Insights - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) grew by 4.0% year-on-year in April, with manufacturing investment at 8.8% and infrastructure investment at 5.8%[22] - The decline in real estate investment is significant, with a cumulative decrease of 10.3% in the first four months, indicating a need for policy support to stabilize the sector[22] Inflation and Pricing - The current economic environment is characterized by low inflation, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) at -0.1% and the Producer Price Index (PPI) at -2.7%[10] - The focus on price recovery is crucial, with core CPI recovery linked to the stabilization of the real estate market, which is essential for internal demand recovery[5] Structural Dynamics - The "Manufacturing Nation" strategy continues to strengthen economic resilience, effectively countering the negative impacts of real estate and consumption on economic growth[5] - The ongoing structural transformation is expected to gradually reduce the drag from real estate and consumption, allowing for a more balanced economic outlook[5] Future Outlook - The economic environment is entering a "dragon in the field" phase, suggesting a potential turning point in negative narratives, with a more optimistic view on RMB assets[5] - The macroeconomic policy is expected to dynamically calibrate and gradually strengthen, indicating a shift in market expectations[6]
C919航线已覆盖中国16城,“海外都在盯着”
Guan Cha Zhe Wang· 2025-05-21 07:08
Core Insights - The C919 aircraft has successfully completed its first commercial flight and is expanding its route network, now covering 16 cities in China, including major hubs like Shenzhen and Xiamen [1][3] - The C919 is gaining attention from both domestic and international airlines, with its performance on high-revenue routes serving as a testament to its reliability and profitability potential [1][3] - China Commercial Aircraft Corporation (COMAC) has secured over 360 orders for the C919, aiming to compete with established players Boeing and Airbus in the domestic market [4] Group 1 - The C919 has launched new routes connecting Shenzhen and Xiamen, enhancing its network to include all four first-tier cities in China [1][3] - China Eastern Airlines (China Eastern) has begun operating the C919 on the Shanghai to Shenzhen route, marking the aircraft's 13th regular commercial route [3] - The C919's operational success on domestic high-yield routes is crucial for its acceptance by international airlines and regulatory bodies [1][3] Group 2 - COMAC aims to have the C919 operating in Southeast Asia by 2026 and is seeking European certification this year [6] - The C909 regional jet has been in commercial operation with TransNusa in Indonesia, demonstrating the potential for international sales [6] - Ryanair has indicated a willingness to consider purchasing from COMAC if pricing is competitive compared to Boeing and Airbus [7]