周四(10月30日)亚洲时段，现货白银试图突破48.00美元，并吸引了一些空头，欧市盘中，现货白银价格 震荡上涨，现报47.90美元/盎司，最高触及47.95美元/盎司，最低下探47.24美元/盎司。银价正逼近48.30 美元/盎司水平。今晚关注美联储理事鲍曼发表预先录制的讲话。 【要闻聚焦】 作为美联储下任主席的潜在人选之一，贝莱德首席投资官里德周三表示，他认为美联储降息符合"明显 放缓"的劳动力市场现状，而美联储主席鲍威尔在会后新闻发布会上的表现"比预期更为鹰派"。里德表 示，"我们认为，12月会议跳过降息的可能性增大，这将使进一步的宽松举措推迟到新的一年，甚至可 能推迟到新主席上任。" 另外"美联储传声筒"Nick Timiraos评美联储主席鲍威尔的讲话，他说："鲍威尔的新闻发布会表明， FOMC整体上并不认同市场此前对12月降息的高度定价。"鲍威尔表示："对于12月如何行动，我们的看 法存在很大分歧。"他强调，12月的降息"不应被视为已成定局。事实上，远非如此。" 17:00德国第三季度未季调GDP年率初值 18:00欧元区第三季度GDP年率初值 这已经超出了他们通常所说的免责声明，即"政策并非按照 ...

| 上期所指定交割金库 | 期货 | 增减 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 87816 | 0 | 为美联储下任主席的潜在人选之一，贝莱德首席投资官里德周三表示，他认为美联储降息符合"明显放 缓"的劳动力市场现状，而美联储主席鲍威尔在会后新闻发布会上的表现"比预期更为鹰派"。 里德表示，"我们认为，12月会议跳过降息的可能性增大，这将使进一步的宽松举措推迟到新的一年， 甚至可能推迟到新主席上任。" 上海期货交易所指定交割仓库期货周四（10月30日）仓单日报显示，黄金期货总计87816千克，今日仓 单较上一日持平。 沪金主力盘内高位震荡，周四（10月30日）黄金期货开盘价919.70元/克，截至目前最高920.24元/克， 最低896.00元/克。截止发稿报912.16元/克，涨幅0.82%，成交量为412100手，持仓为163611手，日持仓 减少5080手。 上海期货交易所黄金期货仓单日报(单位：千克) ...

Core Viewpoint - Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, emphasizes the importance of gold as a form of currency that is difficult to devalue or confiscate, and he has compiled a FAQ on gold due to numerous inquiries [1][2] Historical Context of Currency - Dalio categorizes historical currencies into two types: "hard asset-backed currencies" like gold and silver, and "fiat currencies" which are government-issued without asset backing [2] - He notes that when countries operated under the gold standard, excessive debt relative to gold reserves often led to monetary system issues, resulting in either debt defaults or currency devaluation [2][3] - The end of the gold standard in 1933 and 1971 are highlighted as significant historical events that shaped the current fiat currency system [2][3] Gold as an Investment - Dalio argues that gold outperforms fiat currencies during periods of high debt and insufficient money supply, making it a reliable store of value [3][4] - He points out that while fiat currencies can provide better returns in high-interest environments, gold becomes more attractive when currency devaluation or credit risks rise [3][4] - Gold is viewed as a "fundamental money" rather than a speculative asset, and it should be part of a long-term investment strategy [5][6] Strategic Asset Allocation - Dalio suggests that gold should be analyzed similarly to stocks, bonds, or cash, focusing on expected returns, risks, correlations, and liquidity [6] - The ideal allocation for gold in a diversified portfolio is typically between 5% to 15%, depending on the investor's overall asset composition and risk tolerance [6][7] - Tactical adjustments to gold holdings may be warranted during monetary crises or increased confiscation risks, while stable periods may allow for reductions [7] Conclusion on Gold's Role - Despite not being a high-yield asset, gold is recommended as a long-term holding due to its unique properties as a currency that is less susceptible to confiscation or loss of value [7]

Core Insights - BlackRock's private credit division, HPS Investment Partners, is embroiled in a significant fraud case involving the alleged forgery of accounts receivable as loan collateral, with claims exceeding $500 million against Bankim Brahmbhatt, owner of Broadband Telecom and Bridgevoice [1][2][3] Group 1: Fraud Allegations - HPS Investment Partners has accused Bankim Brahmbhatt of systemic fraud, claiming that all customer emails used to verify invoices were forged, and that false customer contracts date back to 2018 [3][6] - The investigation revealed that emails purportedly from Carriox's clients were sent from fake domains, raising red flags about the legitimacy of the transactions [2][3] - Brahmbhatt's companies have filed for bankruptcy, and he has also filed for personal bankruptcy, indicating severe financial distress [4][6] Group 2: Market Impact - The incident has heightened concerns about the risks associated with asset-backed financing, particularly in the private credit market, which has seen significant growth but also recent failures [5][6] - The recent collapses of First Brands and Tricolor have led to increased scrutiny of risk management practices within the private credit sector, with Wall Street fearing these events may signal deeper issues in the U.S. credit market [1][6] - BlackRock's HPS manages $179 billion in assets, and while this incident is a small part of their portfolio, it has raised alarms about due diligence and risk controls in the broader $2 trillion private credit industry [6]

Core Viewpoint - The Financial Regulatory Administration has issued a notification to promote the sustainable and healthy development of pension financial management business, emphasizing collaboration among various licensed asset management institutions to better serve the pension industry [1] Group 1 - The notification encourages cooperation between wealth management companies and other licensed asset management institutions such as trust companies, insurance asset management companies, securities companies, and public funds [1] - The aim is to achieve complementary advantages in areas like special account management, operational custody, and transaction execution [1] - This initiative is designed to enhance services for the development of the pension industry [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company *ST Zhongdi has reported a significant turnaround in its financial performance for the first three quarters of 2025, achieving a revenue of 14.293 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.48%, and a net profit of 4.827 billion yuan, marking a return to profitability [1] Group 1 - The company completed a major asset transfer to its controlling shareholder, China Communications Real Estate Group, which involved the divestiture of its real estate development assets and liabilities [1] - As of September 30, 2025, the company's total assets amounted to 2.258 billion yuan, with net assets attributable to shareholders reaching 1.248 billion yuan, indicating a recovery from negative to positive net assets compared to the previous year [1] - The asset restructuring is part of a strategic initiative by the controlling shareholder, China Communications Construction Group, aimed at shifting the company towards a lighter operational model to restore profitability and sustainable operations [1] Group 2 - The company plans to focus on "full city services" and "full transportation services," aiming to create a comprehensive life service and asset management system [2] - *ST Zhongdi is accelerating the establishment of a dual-driven model centered on "property management + asset management and operation," leveraging synergies within the China Communications Group [2] - The company emphasizes high-quality development, aiming to solidify its core businesses in property and asset management while enhancing market confidence through actual performance [2]

Group 1 - The core driver of the recent rise in gold prices is geopolitical tensions leading to significant increases in global central bank gold reserves and the efficiency of market participation through gold ETFs [1][2] - Historical data shows that gold prices have experienced two major upward cycles from 1970-1980 and 2000-2010, with central banks projected to purchase 1136 tons, 1037 tons, and 1045 tons of gold from 2022 to 2024, marking one of the fastest accumulation rates in modern history [1][2] - China's central bank has resumed gold purchases since November 2024, increasing its holdings for 11 consecutive months, while global central bank net gold purchases in Q1 2025 reached 244 tons, indicating a slowdown in buying speed [1][2] Group 2 - The recent significant drop in gold prices below the $4000 mark is attributed to its safe-haven properties, asset allocation diversification benefits, and market sentiment, with expectations of a new interest rate cut cycle emerging due to weak U.S. employment data and manageable inflation [2][3] - The ongoing high debt levels in major economies are prompting investors to prepare for "currency devaluation trades," thereby maintaining the long-term logic supporting gold prices [3]

人民财讯10月30日电，国金资管最新观点称，美联储于10月30日如期降息25个基点，此次降息仍为前置 性及预防性降息，整体符合市场预期。此次降息的根本驱动力源于美国就业数据的快速下行，另外延迟 出炉的9月CPI低于市场预期，也催化了此次降息如期落地。展望未来，国金资管认为，美联储未来或 仍有降息空间，但节奏可能放缓，12月美联储有可能暂停降息。 ...

Core Insights - The "Fixed Income Plus" strategy is increasingly recognized as a vital tool for investors in a declining yield environment, emphasizing the importance of risk management over mere pursuit of returns [2][19][20] - The approach advocated by Yu Jianfeng focuses on a systematic and disciplined framework for managing risk, which is essential for achieving optimal risk-adjusted returns [4][12][20] Group 1: Strategy and Philosophy - The essence of the "Fixed Income Plus" strategy lies in asset allocation, utilizing the low or even negative correlation between equity and bond assets to achieve desired risk-return objectives [2][11] - Yu Jianfeng challenges the conventional understanding of "Fixed Income Plus" as merely a combination of bonds and equities, arguing for a more nuanced view that treats both asset classes as contributors to risk and return [3][11] - The strategy emphasizes that risk should be viewed as a resource allocated in advance rather than a cost incurred after the fact, with returns being a natural outcome of effective risk management [4][12] Group 2: Risk Management Techniques - Yu Jianfeng's methodology for controlling drawdowns is based on rigorous mathematical logic, asserting that maximum drawdown is a path-dependent variable influenced by portfolio volatility [5][12] - The framework promotes dynamic adjustments to portfolio volatility based on current drawdown levels and expected future volatility, allowing for proactive risk management [12][19] - The focus on risk management is designed to prevent excessive exposure to market fluctuations, ensuring that the investment experience remains aligned with the risk-return objectives [5][20] Group 3: Market Context and Future Outlook - In the current low-interest-rate environment, traditional reliance on bond yields as a safety net for "Fixed Income Plus" strategies is increasingly challenged, necessitating a shift towards more sophisticated portfolio management techniques [19][20] - The future of "Fixed Income Plus" investments will depend more on effective risk management and asset allocation rather than solely on bond performance, aiming to provide investors with a stable risk-return profile [19][20] - The investment philosophy presented by Yu Jianfeng offers a counter-narrative to the pursuit of extreme returns, advocating for a focus on maximizing risk-adjusted returns in a complex market landscape [20]

Core Viewpoint - The announcement from Xingzheng Securities Asset Management Co., Ltd. indicates the departure of fund manager You Zhen from the Jin Qilin Balanced Optimal Mixed Fund, which raises questions about the fund's future performance and management stability [1][2]. Group 1: Fund Manager Changes - You Zhen has been dismissed as the fund manager of the Jin Qilin Balanced Optimal Mixed Fund, having served in various roles since joining the company in October 2014 [1][2]. - The fund will continue to be managed by He Siyuan alongside other fund managers [2]. Group 2: Fund Performance - The Jin Qilin Balanced Optimal Mixed Fund A/B/C, established on November 15, 2021, has reported a year-to-date return of 16.94%, 16.94%, and 16.15% respectively, while the cumulative return since inception stands at -10.13%, -6.38%, and -12.89% [1]. - The cumulative net asset values for the fund classes A, B, and C are 0.8987 yuan, 2.1265 yuan, and 0.8711 yuan respectively [1].