Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View The report analyzes the weekly market conditions of polyolefins (including plastics, PP, and propylene), with a focus on price trends, supply - demand fundamentals, and provides corresponding trading strategies. Overall, the upward driving force of the fundamentals is insufficient, and it suggests partial reduction of long positions. 3. Summary by Directory Macro Review and Outlook - **2025 - Week 30 Macro Review**: The commodity index and 3P showed certain fluctuations. The whole - week increase was PVC > energy - chemicals > polyolefins > commodities. The market continued to trade on anti - involution policies. PE, PP, and PVC had coal - based proportions of 21%, 23%, and 70% respectively, and old - capacity proportions of 14%, 8%, and 11% respectively [12]. - **2025 - Week 31 Macro Outlook**: Attention should be paid to the Politburo meeting, anti - involution policies, and US tariff changes. Plastic Market Review and Outlook - **Market Performance**: The L2509 contract fluctuated between [7224, 7483] this week, with the price rising driven by multiple news on Friday. The closing price was 7456 yuan/ton, and the position decreased [15][19]. - **Fundamentals**: - **Supply**: It is expected that next week's production will increase by 30,000 tons. The import volume in June decreased by 10% month - on - month, reaching the lowest level in the same period in the past 5 years [4]. - **Demand**: The downstream inventory replenishment willingness is insufficient, and the social inventory continues to accumulate. The agricultural film start - up rate has improved marginally [4]. - **Strategies**: - **Single - side**: Partially reduce long positions. Focus on the interval [7200 - 7500] for L2509. - **Arbitrage**: Continue to hold the long LP09 arbitrage. - **Hedging**: Industrial customers can choose the opportunity to sell - hedge due to the low basis [5]. PP Market Review and Outlook - **Market Performance**: The PP2509 contract fluctuated between [7023, 7239] this week, with the price rising driven by news on Friday. The closing price was 7221 yuan/ton, and the position decreased [56][60]. - **Fundamentals**: - **Supply**: It is expected that next week's production will rise to 790,000 tons, and the basis and monthly spread have continued to weaken, with the warehouse receipts reaching the highest level in the same period in the past 5 years [7]. - **Demand**: The downstream start - up rate remains at around 50%, and the plastic - weaving start - up rate has continued to decline [78][80]. - **Strategies**: - **Single - side**: Partially take profit on long positions. Focus on the interval [7050 - 7300] for PP2509. - **Arbitrage**: Enter the long PP9 - 1 spread or MTO position opportunistically. - **Hedging**: Choose the opportunity to sell - hedge due to the low basis [8]. Propylene Weekly Fundamental Analysis - **Market Performance**: In the first week of propylene's listing, it fluctuated strongly, with the PL01 contract fluctuating between [6501, 6708]. As of Friday, the Shandong propylene market price was 6400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 195 yuan/ton week - on - week [89][92]. - **Fundamentals**: - **Supply**: The PDH start - up rate has increased marginally, and the factory inventory is at a high level year - on - year. The supply pressure will continue to increase in the future [93][95]. - **Demand**: The overall downstream start - up rate has decreased marginally. Most downstream industries maintain a rigid - demand procurement strategy [10]. - **Strategies**: - **Single - side**: Partially take profit on long positions. Focus on the interval [6500 - 6700] for PL2601. - **Arbitrage**: Hold the short PL1 - 2 spread. - **Hedging**: Choose the opportunity to sell - hedge due to the premium of the futures price [11].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the primary form plastic production in Liaoning Province experienced a decline in May 2025, with a total output of 554,000 tons, representing a year-on-year decrease of 2.1% and a significant drop in growth rate compared to the previous year [1] - The production growth rate in May 2025 was 11.4 percentage points lower than the same month in the previous year, and the output accounted for 4.7% of the national total of 11.9 million tons [1] - In the cumulative data from January to May 2025, Liaoning Province's primary form plastic production reached 2.872 million tons, showing a year-on-year increase of 7.4%, which is 2.5 percentage points higher than the previous year [3] Group 2 - The cumulative production growth rate from January to May 2025 was 2.7 percentage points lower than the national average, with Liaoning's output representing 4.9% of the national total of 58.098 million tons [3] - The classification of primary form plastics has evolved, with the term "plastic resin and copolymers" used prior to 2004, and the threshold for large-scale industrial enterprises raised from 5 million yuan to 20 million yuan in 2011 [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the significant growth in the production of primary plastic forms in Beijing, with a notable increase in both monthly and cumulative production figures for April 2025 compared to the previous year [1] - In April 2025, the production of primary plastic forms reached 93,000 tons, representing an 18.7% year-on-year increase, which is 33.7 percentage points higher than the same period last year [1] - The growth rate in April 2025 was 6.7 percentage points higher than the national average, with Beijing's production accounting for 0.8% of the national total of 11,686,000 tons [1] Group 2 - From January to April 2025, the cumulative production of primary plastic forms in Beijing was 357,000 tons, showing a 9.0% year-on-year increase, which is 16.8 percentage points higher than the previous year [1] - The cumulative growth rate for the first four months of 2025 was 1.1 percentage points lower than the national average, with Beijing's production also representing 0.8% of the national total of 4,601,200 tons [1]

徐绍祖（联系人） 供需双弱不变， 宏观情绪回暖 聚烯烃周报 2025/07/26 18665881888 xushaozu@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03115061 交易咨询号： Z0022675 CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 04 聚乙烯供给端 07 聚丙烯供给端 02 期现市场 05 聚乙烯库存&进出口 08 聚丙烯库存&进出口 03 成本端 06 聚乙烯需求端 09 聚丙烯需求端 01 周度评估及策略推荐 周度评估及策略推荐 ◆ 政策端：宏观预期转强，化工企业响应"反内卷"政策，国内资本市场情绪回暖。 ◆ 估值：聚乙烯周度涨幅（成本＞期货＞现货），聚丙烯周度涨幅（期货＞成本＞现货）。 ◆ 成本端：上周WTI原油下跌-1.70%，Brent原油下跌-0.01%，煤价上涨1.88%，甲醇上涨1.24%，乙烯上涨1.56%，丙烯上涨0.80%， 丙烷下跌-2.35%。成本端价格涨跌各异。 ◆ 供应端：PE产能利用率80.26%，环比上涨2.07%，同比去年上涨5.84%，较5年同期下降-6.41%。PP产能利用率76.58%，环比下降- 1.40%，同比去年上涨4.89%，较5年同期 ...

Group 1 - High Energy Environment reported a net profit of 502 million yuan for the first half of 2025, an increase of 20.85% year-on-year, while revenue decreased by 11.20% to 6.7 billion yuan [1] - Angel Yeast plans to acquire 55% of Shengtong Sugar Industry for 506 million yuan, which will make Shengtong a subsidiary [1] - Wentech Technology's shareholders plan to reduce their holdings by up to 1% of the company's shares, amounting to approximately 12.45 million shares [1][2] Group 2 - *ST Zhengping clarified that it is not involved in the Yarlung Zangbo River downstream hydropower project, despite market speculation [2] - Aidi Te announced that two shareholders plan to reduce their holdings by up to 3% of the company's shares, totaling approximately 319,690 shares [3] - *ST Baoying intends to publicly transfer 50.1% of its stake in Danhua Renewable Energy for an initial price of 30 million yuan, expecting a loss of about 29.4 million yuan [5] Group 3 - Yaoji Technology's controlling shareholder plans to reduce their holdings by up to 3% of the company's shares, approximately 1.25 million shares [6] - China Haicheng reported a net profit of 152 million yuan for the first half of 2025, an increase of 8.52% year-on-year, with total revenue of 2.745 billion yuan [8] - Shenzhou Information's major shareholder plans to reduce their holdings by up to 0.97%, approximately 9.5 million shares [9] Group 4 - Betaini's major shareholder plans to reduce their holdings by up to 2%, approximately 842,590 shares [10] - Guotou Intelligent's shareholders plan to reduce their holdings by up to 1.35%, approximately 11.59 million shares [12] - Shen Shui Institute confirmed it is not participating in the Yarlung Zangbo River downstream hydropower project [14] Group 5 - Xidi Micro announced a risk of losing control over its subsidiary Zinitix due to alleged misconduct by current directors [15] - Tiantian Technology's controlling shareholder plans to reduce their holdings by up to 3%, approximately 38.95 million shares [17] - Ningbo Color Master announced a plan to reduce holdings by up to 1.38%, approximately 231,550 shares [19] Group 6 - Dongguan Holdings plans to publicly transfer 20% of its stake in Dongguan Songshan Lake Microfinance Company for a base price of 48.12 million yuan [21] - Bohai Leasing's subsidiary Avolon intends to purchase 15 A330NEO and 75 A321NEO aircraft from Airbus [22] - Dongfang Fortune reported that shareholder Shen Yougen's stake has decreased to 0.19% after transferring 158.8 million shares [23] Group 7 - Quanzhu Co. plans to raise up to 180 million yuan through a private placement to fund AI-based projects [24] - Zhongjin Gold announced that its subsidiary in Inner Mongolia has ceased operations following a tragic incident [25] - *ST Xinchao has changed its chairman and legal representative, appointing Zhang Junyu as the new chairman [27]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the plastics industry is "Oscillating Upward" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The report suggests a strategy of buying on dips or implementing a 09 - 01 reverse spread. Although there are issues such as high inventory and low - season demand in the plastics industry, the upcoming release of a new round of stability - growth work plans for key industries and the elimination of old and backward devices are expected to improve market sentiment [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - On July 24, the plastic operating rate remained at around 87%, a neutral level. The PE downstream operating rate rose 0.64 percentage points to 38.51%, still at a relatively low level in recent years. The petrochemical de - stocking speed has accelerated, but the inventory is still high. The coal price has risen significantly due to production checks. With new capacity coming on - stream and restart of some devices, the plastic operating rate has increased slightly. Considering the upcoming policies and market sentiment improvement, it is recommended to buy on dips or implement a 09 - 01 reverse spread [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The plastics 2509 contract oscillated upward with a decrease in positions, closing at 7385 yuan/ton, up 0.89%. The trading volume decreased by 16,764 lots to 371,617 lots [2] - Spot: The PE spot market showed mixed price movements, with price changes ranging from - 30 to + 50 yuan/ton. LLDPE was priced at 7160 - 7440 yuan/ton, LDPE at 9280 - 9630 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 7620 - 8250 yuan/ton [3] Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On July 24, the number of overhaul devices changed little, and the plastic operating rate remained at around 87%, a neutral level [4] - Demand: As of the week of July 18, the PE downstream operating rate rose 0.64 percentage points to 38.51%. The agricultural film is in the off - season with a slight decrease in orders, while packaging film orders increased slightly. The overall downstream operating rate is still at a relatively low level in recent years [4] - Inventory: The petrochemical early inventory on Thursday decreased by 15,000 tons to 750,000 tons, 40,000 tons higher than the same period last year. The de - stocking speed has accelerated, but the inventory is still high [4] - Raw Materials: Brent crude oil's October contract oscillated around $68/barrel. The Northeast Asian ethylene price remained flat at $830/ton, and the Southeast Asian ethylene price also remained flat at $820/ton [4]

Group 1 - In May 2025, the production of primary plastic in China reached 11.90 million tons, representing a year-on-year growth of 10.2%, which is an increase of 5.9 percentage points compared to the same month last year [1] - From January to May 2025, the cumulative production of primary plastic was 58.10 million tons, with a year-on-year growth of 10.1%, showing an increase of 3.8 percentage points compared to the same period last year [3] - The growth trend in primary plastic production indicates a continued expansion in the industry, reflecting positive market dynamics [1][3] Group 2 - The definition of primary plastic includes materials previously known as plastic resins and copolymers before 2004 [4] - The threshold for scale industrial enterprises was raised from an annual main business income of 5 million yuan to 20 million yuan starting in 2011 [4]

Group 1: Core Insights - The competition in the electric vehicle (EV) market is intensifying, with a focus on extending driving range through lightweight materials [1] - Jingbo has launched the LA640T high-impact copolymer polypropylene, which redefines automotive interior lightweight standards by balancing lightweight and high strength [1][2] - The LA640T material significantly reduces weight in key components, contributing to improved EV range and energy efficiency [2] Group 2: Material Innovations - The LA640T polypropylene features an exceptional melt flow index of 66.0g/10min, doubling the processing efficiency compared to standard high melt flow polypropylene [2] - The material's density (0.90~0.91g/cm³) and high flow characteristics allow for substantial weight reductions, such as 4KG less for the dashboard skeleton compared to steel [2] - The innovative design of LA640T enhances safety and comfort by improving energy absorption in side impacts while maintaining structural integrity [3] Group 3: Sustainability and Future Directions - Jingbo aims to promote the rapid growth of modified polypropylene in strategic emerging industries through continuous technological and service innovations [4] - The company is focused on developing high-performance, low-energy, and recyclable materials, expanding its chemical recycling polypropylene product line [4] - Future developments will emphasize high performance, green low-carbon solutions, and the global commercialization of recycling technologies [4]

完善期货品种 深化市场开放 我国正从塑料生产大国加快向强国转型，如何增强我国企业在国际市场中的话语权成为业内焦点。近 日，大连商品交易所(以下简称大商所)于大连召开的提升塑料期货价格影响力研讨会上，参会代表围绕 更好发挥期货市场功能作用、服务中国塑料"走出去"积极建言献策。 记者了解到，我国塑料产业规模全球第一，但定价方式却长期受制于人。2024年，我国塑料产量占全球 比重接近30%，聚氯乙烯(PVC)、聚丙烯(PP)等品种出口增速均超过50%，东南亚以及非洲、南美等新 兴市场成为中国塑料的重要出口目的地。然而，塑料品种的国际贸易定价多依赖于境外现货价格指数或 直接采取"一口价"模式，缺乏透明度和公允性，难以匹配我国企业的全球布局需求。 对此，多位企业代表认为，当前塑料期货已逐步成为国内现货贸易重要的定价基准，未来进一步提升塑 料期货价格影响力、探索推动塑料期货在国际贸易定价中的应用，将有助于我国企业将生产优势转化为 市场优势，增强中国价格的国际影响力和化工企业的国际竞争力。 有代表提出，提升塑料期货价格影响力的首要任务是丰富期货品种供给。浙江明日控股集团董事长韩新 伟表示："塑料品种类别牌号众多，无论境内还 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PVC期货早报 2025年7月23日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 供给端来看，据隆众统计，2025年6月PVC产量为199.134万吨，环比减少1.40%；本周样本企业产能利 用率为77.59%，环比增加0.01个百分点；电石法企业产量34.032万吨，环比增加0.63%,乙烯法企业产 量11.589万吨，环比增加1.31%；本周供给压力有所增加；下周预计检修有所减少，预计排产增加幅度 可观。 需求端来看，下游整体开工率为40.11%，环比减少1个百分点，低于历史平均水平；下游型材开工率为 34.55%，环比持平，低于历史平均水平；下游管材开工率为33.75%，环比减少3.92个百分点，低于历 史平均水平；下游薄膜开工率 ...