反内卷与老旧装置淘汰
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震荡上行:塑料日报-20251119
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-11-19 11:08
【冠通期货研究报告】 塑料日报:震荡上行 发布日期:2025年11月19日 【行情分析】 期货方面: 塑料2601合约减仓震荡上行,最低价6781元/吨,最高价6838元/吨,最终收盘于6833元/ 吨,在60日均线下方,涨幅0.22%。持仓量减少19678手至528666手。 现货方面: PE现货市场多数下跌,涨跌幅在-50至+0元/吨之间,LLDPE报6790-7220元/吨,LDPE报8750- 9280元/吨,HDPE报6950-7990元/吨。 投资有风险,入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格,请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 1 11月19日,宁夏宝丰全密度等检修装置重启开车,塑料开工率上涨至89%左右,目前开工率处于 中性水平。截至11月14日当周,PE下游开工率环比下降0.36个百分点至44.49%,农膜仍处于旺季,农 膜订单稳定,处于近年同期中性水平,农膜原料库存继续稳定,但包装膜订单继续小幅减少,整体 PE下游开工率仍处于近年同期偏低位水平。石化去库放缓,目前石化库存处于近年同期中性偏高水 平。成本端,美国政府停摆结束,欧美成品油裂解价差持续走强,原油价格跌后反弹,但欧佩克将 2025 ...
震荡上行:PP日报-20251119
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-11-19 11:06
【冠通期货研究报告】 PP日报:震荡上行 发布日期:2025年11月19日 【行情分析】 PP下游开工率环比上涨0.14个百分点至53.28%,处于历年同期偏低水平。但其中拉丝主力下游塑 编开工率环比回落0.12个百分点至44.24%,塑编订单环比略有减少,略低于去年同期。11月19日,新 增广东石化一线等检修装置,PP企业开工率下跌至81%左右,处于中性偏低水平,标品拉丝生产比例 上涨至25%左右。石化去库放缓,目前石化库存处于近年同期中性偏高水平。成本端,美国政府停摆 结束,欧美成品油裂解价差持续走强,原油价格跌后反弹,但欧佩克将2025年三季度全球石油从短 缺40万桶/日调整为过剩50万桶/日,原油供应过剩格局进一步成为共识,原油价格涨幅有限。供应 上,新增产能40万吨/年的中石油广西石化10月中旬投产,近期检修装置略有增加。下游进入旺季尾 声,塑编等订单跟进持续性有限,市场缺乏大规模集中采购,对行情提振有限,贸易商普遍让利以 刺激成交。PP产业还未有反内卷实际政策落地,当然反内卷与老旧装置淘汰,解决石化产能过剩问 题仍是宏观政策,将影响后续行情。此前成本上涨及下游旺季推动PP价格反弹,但供需格局整体未 ...
每日核心期货品种分析-20251119
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-11-19 11:04
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - As of the close on November 19, domestic futures main contracts showed mixed performance, with some rising and some falling [6]. - The overall trend of various commodities is affected by factors such as supply and demand, production, consumption, and geopolitical situations, and most commodities are expected to show a weak - oscillating trend [9][11][12]. 3. Summary by Commodity Metals - **Copper**: Copper opened low and moved high, showing strength during the day. Affected by US employment data, copper prices slightly increased. With an expected increase in production and a transition from peak to off - peak demand, the fundamental situation restricts the upward space of prices [9]. - **Silver**: The main contract of Shanghai silver rose more than 2%, and the main contract of Shanghai silver 2602 had an inflow of 1.733 billion yuan [6][7]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: It opened low and moved high, rising during the day. Due to strong demand, inventory has been continuously decreasing, and the supply - demand balance pattern promotes the price to oscillate strongly, but a callback should be guarded against [11]. - **Aluminum Oxide**: It fell nearly 2% [6]. - **Coking Coal**: It opened low and moved low, falling during the day. With weakening supply - demand fundamentals and increased inventory pressure at the Mao Du Port, it is expected to run weakly [20][21]. Energy - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ decided to increase production in December, which will intensify the supply pressure in the fourth quarter but reduce it in the first quarter of next year. With the end of the peak demand season and an increase in inventory, the supply - demand pattern is oversupplied, and prices are expected to oscillate weakly [12][13]. - **Asphalt**: The supply is decreasing, the demand is weakening, and the inventory is at a low level. With the approach of cold weather, the demand will further decline, and the futures price is expected to oscillate weakly [14]. Chemicals - **PP**: The downstream start - up rate is at a low level, the supply has increased due to new production capacity and some maintenance, and the demand is in the off - peak season. With an oversupplied crude oil market, the price is expected to oscillate weakly [15][16]. - **Plastic**: The start - up rate has slightly increased, new production capacity has been put into operation, the demand in the north has decreased, and the downstream purchasing intention is insufficient. With an oversupplied crude oil market, the price is expected to oscillate weakly [17]. - **PVC**: The upstream price has decreased, the supply start - up rate has decreased, the downstream start - up rate is low, the inventory is high, and the market is affected by policies and other factors. The price is expected to oscillate weakly [19]. - **Urea**: It opened high and moved low, oscillating strongly. The supply is loose, the cost is rising, the demand is improving, and the inventory is decreasing. The price is expected to continue to rebound, and attention should be paid to the upper pressure level [22]. Others - **Palm Oil**: It rose nearly 2% [6]. - **Peanuts**: It fell nearly 2% [6]. - **Concentration Index (European Line)**: It fell more than 2% [6]. - **Stock Index Futures**: The main contract of CSI 300 stock index futures (IF) rose 0.49%, the main contract of SSE 50 stock index futures (IH) rose 0.55%, the main contract of CSI 500 stock index futures (IC) fell 0.02%, and the main contract of CSI 1000 stock index futures (IM) fell 0.42% [7]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The main contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures all fell [7].
每日核心期货品种分析-20251117
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-11-17 11:06
地址:北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层(100020) 总机:010-8535 6666 注:本报告有关现货市场的资讯与行情信息,来源于安云思、肥易通、国家统计局、隆众资讯、金十数 据、EIA、OPEC、IEA 等。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格,请务必阅读免责声明。 本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料,我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证。报告中的内容和 意见仅供参考,并不构成对所述品种买卖的出价或征价。我公司及其雇员对使用本报告及其内容所引发的 任何直接或间接损失概不负责。本报告仅向特定客户传送,版权归冠通期货所有。未经我公司书面许可, 任何机构和个人均不得以任何形式翻版,复制,引用或转载。如引用、转载、刊发,须注明出处为冠通期 货股份有限公司。 每日核心期货品种分析 发布日期:2025 年 11 月 17 日 商品表现 数据来源:Wind、冠通研究咨询部 期市综述 截止 11 月 17 日收盘,国内期货主力合约涨跌互现。碳酸锂封涨停板,涨幅为 9%,集运指数(欧线)涨超 6%,硅铁、铁矿石、焦炭、螺纹钢、热卷涨超 1%。 分析师:王静,执业资格证号 F0235424/Z ...
PP日报:震荡下行-20251106
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-11-06 11:50
Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core View of the Report - The PP market is expected to experience a weak and volatile trend in the near future due to factors such as the increase in new production capacity, the decline in plastic weaving start - up rate, lower - than - expected Double Eleven stocking demand, and the lack of large - scale centralized procurement [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - PP downstream start - up rate increased by 0.24 percentage points to 52.61% week - on - week, remaining at a relatively low level compared to the same period in previous years. However, the plastic weaving start - up rate dropped by 0.2 percentage points to 44.2%, with slightly fewer orders and slightly lower than the same period last year [1][4] - On November 6th, there were few changes in maintenance devices, and the PP enterprise start - up rate remained at around 82%, at a moderately low level. The production ratio of standard wire drawing dropped to around 21% [1][4] - Petrochemical inventory is currently at a neutral level compared to the same period in recent years, with significant inventory accumulation at the beginning of the month [1][4] - In terms of cost, the market has digested the news of Russian oil sanctions, and the meeting between Chinese and US leaders was in line with market expectations. OPEC+ decided to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December but suspend production increases in the first quarter of next year, resulting in a narrow - range fluctuation of crude oil prices [1] - New production capacity of 400,000 tons per year from PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical was put into operation in mid - October, and the number of maintenance devices has slightly decreased recently [1] Futures Market - The PP2601 contract decreased by 0.57% with increased positions, closing at 6471 yuan/ton, below the 20 - day moving average. The trading range was between 6415 yuan/ton and 6490 yuan/ton, and the open interest increased by 8183 lots to 652,784 lots [2] Spot Market - Most spot prices of PP in various regions declined, with wire drawing priced at 6240 - 6560 yuan/ton [3] Fundamental Tracking - On the supply side, on November 6th, there were few changes in maintenance devices, and the PP enterprise start - up rate remained at around 82%, at a moderately low level [1][4] - On the demand side, as of the week ending October 31st, the PP downstream start - up rate increased by 0.24 percentage points to 52.61% week - on - week, remaining at a relatively low level compared to the same period in previous years. The plastic weaving start - up rate dropped by 0.2 percentage points to 44.2%, with slightly fewer orders and slightly lower than the same period last year [1][4] - Petrochemical inventory in the early morning of Thursday decreased by 20,000 tons to 690,000 tons, 20,000 tons higher than the same period last year [4] - The Brent crude oil 01 contract dropped to $64 per barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China remained flat at $740 per ton [5]
每日核心期货品种分析-20251105
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-11-05 09:41
Report Summary 1. Market Performance - As of the close on November 5th, most domestic futures main contracts declined. Polysilicon dropped over 2%, and fiberboard, asphalt, caustic soda, red dates, rebar, polypropylene, styrene, and international copper fell over 1%. On the upside, the European Line of container shipping rose over 4%, and eggs, rapeseed meal, live pigs, soybean meal, soybean No.2, soybean No.1, and pulp rose over 1%. The CSI 300 Index Futures (IF) main contract rose 0.41%, the SSE 50 Index Futures (IH) main contract fell 0.01%, the CSI 500 Index Futures (IC) main contract rose 0.55%, and the CSI 1000 Index Futures (IM) main contract rose 0.77%. The 2-year Treasury Bond Futures (TS) main contract fell 0.01%, the 5-year Treasury Bond Futures (TF) main contract remained flat, the 10-year Treasury Bond Futures (T) main contract fell 0.01%, and the 30-year Treasury Bond Futures (TL) main contract fell 0.08% [6][7]. - In terms of capital flow, as of 15:31 on November 5th, the CSI 1000 2512 contract had an inflow of 2.188 billion yuan, the CSI 500 2512 contract had an inflow of 553 million yuan, and the SSE 50 2512 contract had an inflow of 403 million yuan. The Shanghai Gold 2512 contract had an outflow of 1.08 billion yuan, the Shanghai Copper 2512 contract had an outflow of 918 million yuan, and the Shanghai Aluminum 2512 contract had an outflow of 682 million yuan [7]. 2. Commodity Analysis Copper - Shanghai copper opened low and moved high, showing weakness during the day. The US government shutdown continued, and the copper supply was tight due to the accident in the Indonesian copper mine and the upcoming smelter maintenance. The scrap copper supply was expected to increase with the rising copper price. The downstream demand was suppressed, and the inventory was slightly increasing. The copper price lacked a clear signal [9]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate opened low, moved high, and then declined during the day. The upstream production was active, with an increase in output. The downstream demand was strong, driven by the energy storage battery. The inventory was decreasing. However, the market was affected by the news of large - scale production resumption, showing a pattern of both supply and demand increase. If the resumption news was confirmed, the supply might become more abundant, and the price might be weak in the short term [11]. Crude Oil - OPEC+ decided to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December, which would increase the supply pressure in the fourth quarter but relieve it in the first quarter of next year. The demand peak season ended, and the market was worried about the demand. The supply - surplus pattern remained, but the export of Russian crude oil was expected to be restricted. The price was expected to fluctuate recently [12]. Asphalt - The asphalt supply was expected to decrease in November. The downstream demand was affected by funds and weather. The inventory was at a low level. The crude oil price fluctuated, and the asphalt futures price was expected to be weak and volatile [15]. PP - The PP downstream开工率 increased slightly, but the plastic weaving开工率 decreased. The supply increased with new capacity and fewer maintenance devices. The demand in the peak season was lower than expected. The price was expected to be weak and volatile [16][17]. Plastic - The plastic开工率 increased, and the downstream开工率 decreased. The supply increased with new capacity. The demand in the peak season was not as good as expected. The price was expected to be weak and volatile [18]. PVC - The PVC开工率 increased, and the downstream开工率 was low. The export was expected to weaken. The inventory was high, and the real - estate market was still adjusting. The price was expected to be weak and volatile [20]. Coking Coal - The coking coal supply tightened, and the inventory was transferred downward. The demand was weak in the short term due to environmental protection restrictions but was expected to recover. The supply - demand balance was tight [21][22]. Urea - The urea upstream factory's shipment improved, and the price rose slightly. The production was expected to be high. The downstream demand was mainly for terminal fertilizer storage. The inventory increased. The price was expected to consolidate at a low level without substantial positive news [23].
PP日报:震荡下行-20251028
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-10-28 12:31
Report Summary Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core View The report indicates that although recent cost increases and macro - economic warming have pushed PP to rebound, PP lacks its own upward momentum. Considering factors such as supply, demand, and macro - policies, it is expected that PP will experience a weak and volatile trend [1]. Details from Different Sections Market Analysis - PP downstream开工率 increased by 0.52 percentage points to 52.37%, remaining at a relatively low level compared to the same period in previous years. The plastic weaving开工率 rose by 0.14 percentage points to 44.4%, with slightly more orders but still slightly lower than last year [1]. - On October 27, some overhauled devices like the second line of Yulong Petrochemical restarted, causing the PP企业开工率 to rise to around 81%, a moderately low level, and the production ratio of standard drawstring products increased to about 30% [1][4]. - Petrochemical inventories are currently at a neutral level compared to the same period in recent years. The cost of raw materials, with factors such as US sanctions on Russian oil companies and military confrontations, led to a significant rebound in crude oil prices from a low level [1]. - A new production capacity of 400,000 tons/year from PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical was put into operation in mid - October, and the number of overhauled devices has recently decreased. The peak season demand is lower than expected, and there is a lack of large - scale centralized procurement in the market [1]. - The mutual collection of special port fees for ships by China and the US has increased concerns about economic growth. There are no practical anti - involution policies in the PP industry yet, but such policies and the elimination of old devices to address over - capacity will affect future market trends [1]. Futures and Spot Market - In the futures market, the PP2601 contract decreased by 0.37% with increased positions, closing at 6657 yuan/ton, below the 20 - day moving average, and the position increased by 2998 lots to 611,345 lots [2]. - In the spot market, most PP spot prices in various regions declined, with drawstring products priced at 6390 - 6630 yuan/ton [3]. Fundamental Tracking - On the supply side, on October 27, the restart of overhauled devices like the second line of Yulong Petrochemical led to the PP企业开工率 rising to around 81%, a moderately low level [4]. - On the demand side, as of the week ending October 24, the PP downstream开工率 increased by 0.52 percentage points to 52.37%, remaining at a relatively low level compared to the same period in previous years [4]. - Petrochemical inventories decreased by 30,000 tons to 720,000 tons on Tuesday, 35,000 tons lower than the same period last year, currently at a neutral level compared to the same period in recent years [4]. Raw Material End The Brent crude oil 01 contract dropped to $64 per barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China remained unchanged at $760 per ton [6].
每日核心期货品种分析-20251024
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-10-24 09:57
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - On October 24, 2025, most domestic futures main contracts rose. Some commodities like fuel oil, container shipping European routes, and eggs had significant increases, while others like red dates and polysilicon declined. Stock index futures generally rose, and treasury bond futures mostly fell. Different commodities have different market trends and influencing factors, with some showing upward trends but facing pressure, some in a state of supply - demand balance, and others with uncertain outlooks due to various factors such as macro - economic data, supply - demand fundamentals, and geopolitical events [7]. 3) Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Commodity Performance - Futures Market Overview - As of the close on October 24, domestic futures main contracts showed more gains than losses. Fuel oil, container shipping European routes, and eggs rose over 3%, international copper nearly 3%, and Shanghai copper and SC crude oil over 2%. Red dates fell over 4%, polysilicon over 1%, and rebar nearly 1%. Stock index futures rose, with CSI 1000 rising 2.41% leading the way, while treasury bond futures mostly fell, with the 30 - year treasury bond futures falling 0.24% the most. In terms of capital flow, Shanghai copper 2512 had an inflow of 2.504 billion yuan, while CSI 1000 2512 had an outflow of 5.183 billion yuan [7]. Market Analysis - **Shanghai Copper**: Opened high and went high, rising during the day. September 2025 refined copper production was 1.266 million tons, up 10.1% year - on - year and down 2.7% month - on - month. 1 - 9 months cumulative production was 11.125 million tons, up 10.0% year - on - year. Copper price is supported by rigid demand and expected tight supply, but the high price is hard for downstream to accept. The price trend is still upward but with pressure, so be cautious about chasing the rise [9][10]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Opened high and went high, oscillating strongly. Battery - grade and industrial - grade prices both rose 600 yuan/ton. Supply is growing steadily, and demand from the downstream battery industry is strong. The inventory in September was significantly reduced, and the price is supported by fundamentals [11]. - **Crude Oil**: OPEC + will increase production in November, increasing supply pressure. The demand peak season is over, but US refinery operations rebounded, and inventories decreased. The price is expected to rebound at a low level, and attention should be paid to Sino - US trade negotiations and the Russia - Ukraine peace talks [12][13]. - **Asphalt**: Supply decreased slightly in October. Downstream industry operations mostly rose, and national shipments increased. The inventory - to - sales ratio decreased slightly. With the rebound of crude oil prices, the basis in Shandong has dropped significantly. It is recommended to observe the asphalt futures price cautiously [14]. - **PP**: Downstream operations rebounded slightly, and the enterprise operation rate was around 80%. New production capacity was put into operation, and recent maintenance increased. Cost rose due to the rebound of crude oil prices. The demand in the peak season was less than expected, and it is expected to oscillate weakly [15][16]. - **Plastic**: The operation rate was around 86.5%, and downstream operations rose. New production capacity was put into operation. The demand in the peak season was less than expected, and it is expected to oscillate weakly [17]. - **PVC**: The upstream calcium carbide price rose. Supply decreased slightly, and downstream operations continued to rise. Export expectations weakened in the fourth quarter, and social inventory was high. New production capacity was put into operation. It is expected to oscillate in the near future [19]. - **Coking Coal**: Opened high and went high, oscillating strongly. Mongolian coal imports decreased, and domestic supply was short. Demand from coke enterprises supported the price, but downstream steel mills' profits shrank. Pay attention to major conferences and Mongolian coal imports [20][21]. - **Urea**: The futures price rose, and the spot market followed. Daily production decreased slightly, and the cost increased. Demand from compound fertilizer factories increased, and inventory accumulation was slow. The market is expected to be strong, and attention should be paid to policy changes [22].
PP日报:震荡上行-20251023
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-10-23 10:26
Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core View of the Report - The recent cost increase has pushed the price of PP to rebound, but PP lacks the internal momentum to drive significant price hikes. It is expected that PP will experience a weak and volatile trend [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - The downstream operating rate of PP increased by 0.09 percentage points to 51.85% week - on - week, remaining at a relatively low level compared to the same period in previous years. Among them, the operating rate of plastic weaving remained flat at 44.26% week - on - week, and plastic weaving orders continued to slightly decrease, being slightly lower than the same period last year [1][4] - On October 23, new maintenance devices such as the first and second lines of Zhongjing Petrochemical Phase I were added. The operating rate of PP enterprises dropped to around 80%, a moderately low level, and the production ratio of standard - grade drawn yarn dropped to around 25% [1][4] - The inventory accumulation of petrochemicals during the National Day this year was similar to previous years, and currently, the petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level compared to the same period in recent years [1][4] - In terms of cost, due to the upcoming new round of economic and trade consultations between China and the United States and the US sanctions on important Russian oil companies, the crude oil price has rebounded significantly from its low level [1] - In terms of supply, new production capacities have been put into operation, and recently, the number of maintenance devices has increased [1] - Although the weather has improved and the downstream is gradually entering the peak seasons of "Golden September and Silver October", the peak - season demand is currently lower than expected, and there is a lack of large - scale centralized procurement in the market. After the National Day, the stocking demand has weakened periodically, and traders generally offer discounts to stimulate transactions [1] - China and the United States are charging special port fees on each other's ships, increasing concerns about economic growth. There are no actual policies for anti - involution in the PP industry yet, but anti - involution and the elimination of old devices to solve the problem of over - capacity in the petrochemical industry are still macro - policies that will affect future market trends [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The PP2601 contract decreased in positions and fluctuated upwards. The lowest price was 6616 yuan/ton, the highest was 6710 yuan/ton, and it finally closed at 6691 yuan/ton, below the 20 - day moving average, with a gain of 1.27%. The position volume decreased by 14,771 lots to 618,484 lots [2] - Spot: Most spot prices of PP in various regions increased. The price of drawn yarn was reported at 6390 - 6630 yuan/ton [3] Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On October 23, new maintenance devices such as the first and second lines of Zhongjing Petrochemical Phase I were added, and the operating rate of PP enterprises dropped to around 80%, a moderately low level [4] - Demand: As of the week of October 17, the downstream operating rate of PP increased by 0.09 percentage points to 51.85% week - on - week, remaining at a relatively low level compared to the same period in previous years. Among them, the operating rate of plastic weaving remained flat at 44.26% week - on - week, and plastic weaving orders continued to slightly decrease, being slightly lower than the same period last year [1][4] - Inventory: During the National Day holiday, the early petrochemical inventory increased by 270,000 tons. On Thursday, the early petrochemical inventory decreased by 20,000 tons to 760,000 tons, which was 10,000 tons lower than the same period last year. The inventory accumulation of petrochemicals during the National Day this year was similar to previous years, and currently, the petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level compared to the same period in recent years [1][4] - Raw materials: The Brent crude oil 01 contract rose to $64/barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China decreased by $15/ton to $760/ton week - on - week [4]
PP日报:震荡上行-20251022
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-10-22 09:54
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - The PP market is expected to show a weak and volatile trend. Although the downstream is in the peak season, the peak - season demand is lower than expected, and there are concerns about economic growth and the lack of actual anti - involution policies in the PP industry [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - PP downstream开工率 increased by 0.09 percentage points to 51.85% week - on - week, remaining at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. The plastic weaving开工率 remained flat at 44.26% week - on - week, and plastic weaving orders continued to decline slightly, slightly lower than the same period last year. On October 22, some overhauled devices such as Zhejiang Petrochemical 4PP restarted, and the PP enterprise开工率 rose to around 80.5%, at a moderately low level. The production ratio of standard wire drawing increased to around 27%. The petrochemical inventory accumulation during the National Day this year was similar to previous years, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in the same period in recent years. The crude oil price may fluctuate more due to the upcoming Sino - US economic and trade consultations. There are new capacity additions, and recent overhauled devices have increased. The downstream is in the peak season, but the peak - season demand is lower than expected, and there are concerns about economic growth and the lack of anti - involution policies [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The PP2601 contract decreased in positions and fluctuated upwards, with a low of 6575 yuan/ton, a high of 6642 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 6619 yuan/ton, below the 20 - day moving average, up 0.72%. The position decreased by 15,845 lots to 633,255 lots [2] - Spot: Most PP spot prices in various regions were stable, with wire drawing quoted at 6390 - 6630 yuan/ton [3] Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On October 22, some overhauled devices such as Zhejiang Petrochemical 4PP restarted, and the PP enterprise开工率 rose to around 80.5%, at a moderately low level [4] - Demand: As of the week of October 17, the PP downstream开工率 increased by 0.09 percentage points to 51.85% week - on - week, remaining at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. The plastic weaving开工率 remained flat at 44.26% week - on - week, and plastic weaving orders continued to decline slightly, slightly lower than the same period last year [4] - Inventory: The petrochemical early - morning inventory increased by 270,000 tons during the National Day holiday, decreased by 10,000 tons to 780,000 tons on Wednesday, 20,000 tons lower than the same period last year. The petrochemical inventory accumulation during the National Day this year was similar to previous years, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in the same period in recent years [4] Raw Material End - The Brent crude oil 01 contract rose to $62/barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China remained flat at $775/ton week - on - week [5]