Report Date - The report was produced on August 27, 2025 [3] Futures Market Overview - As of the close on August 27, most domestic futures contracts ended in the red. Apples and Shanghai nickel rose over 1%. Polysilicon dropped over 4%, while coking coal and crude oil fell over 3%. Alumina, BR rubber, fuel oil, soybean No.2, and styrene declined over 2%. Among stock index futures, the CSI 300 (IF) dropped 1.71%, the SSE 50 (IH) fell 1.85%, the CSI 500 (IC) decreased 1.51%, and the CSI 1000 (IM) tumbled 2.08%. In the bond futures market, the 2-year (TS) rose 0.02%, the 5-year (TF) climbed 0.06%, the 10-year (T) advanced 0.08%, and the 30-year (TL) soared 0.24% [6] Capital Flows - As of 15:22 on August 27, funds flowed into the CSI 500 2509, CSI 1000 2509, and CSI 300 2509 contracts, amounting to 3.741 billion, 1.151 billion, and 566 million respectively. Meanwhile, funds flowed out of the Shanghai gold 2510, Shanghai silver 2510, and SSE 50 2509 contracts, reaching 1.746 billion, 968 million, and 458 million respectively [8] Core Views Copper - Shanghai copper opened lower and closed higher, facing pressure. The probability of a 25% Fed rate cut is currently 85%. The supply of copper is expected to be tight both internationally and domestically, and the inventory at the Shanghai Futures Exchange remains low. Although the downstream market is in a slack season, there is an expectation of increased demand during the "Golden September and Silver October" period. Overall, copper prices are expected to fluctuate with an upward bias in the short term [10] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate opened higher and closed lower. The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate was 81,600 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, while the industrial-grade was 79,300 yuan/ton, also down 100 yuan/ton. The import volume in July decreased by 22% month-on-month and 43% year-on-year. The production in August and September is expected to decline by 15% year-on-year. The demand is expected to increase during the "Golden September and Silver October" period, providing support for prices [12] Crude Oil - Crude oil is at the end of the seasonal travel peak. The EIA data shows a larger-than-expected decline in US crude and gasoline inventories. OPEC+ plans to increase production by 547,000 barrels per day in September. The EIA and IEA have both raised the forecast of global oil surplus, increasing the pressure on crude oil prices in the fourth quarter. The price is expected to have limited upside potential, and it is recommended to short on rallies [13][15] Asphalt - The asphalt production rate decreased by 2.2 percentage points to 30.7% last week. The expected production in August is 2.413 million tons, a decrease of 5.1% month-on-month but an increase of 17.1% year-on-year. The downstream demand is weak due to factors such as funds and weather. The cost support from crude oil has weakened. The asphalt futures are expected to fluctuate in the near term [16] PP - The downstream PP operating rate increased by 0.18 percentage points to 49.53%. The PP enterprise operating rate remained at around 87%. The cost pressure from crude oil is increasing as the consumption peak ends and OPEC+ accelerates production. The new capacity has been put into operation, and the downstream demand is weak. However, the upcoming "Golden September and Silver October" season may bring some support. The PP market is expected to fluctuate in the near term [17][18] Plastic - The plastic operating rate remained at around 84%. The PE downstream operating rate increased by 0.53 percentage points to 40.00%. The cost pressure from crude oil is increasing. The new capacity has been put into operation, and the downstream demand is weak. The upcoming "Golden September and Silver October" season may bring some support. The plastic market is expected to fluctuate in the near term [19] PVC - The PVC operating rate decreased by 2.72 percentage points to 77.61%. The downstream demand is weak, and the export expectation has declined. The social inventory is still high. The PVC market is expected to decline with fluctuations in the near term [20][21] Coking Coal - Coking coal opened lower and closed lower. The import volume in July increased significantly. The domestic production is increasing, and the inventory at mines has increased. The downstream demand is affected by environmental protection. The coking coal market is expected to decline with fluctuations in the near term, but the downside space is limited [22] Urea - Urea opened lower and closed lower. The spot market is weak and stable. The supply is expected to remain stable with the commissioning of new capacity. The demand from the industrial sector is resilient, but the demand for autumn fertilizers has not yet arrived. The inventory is at a high level. The urea market is expected to decline with fluctuations in the short term [23][24]