市场快讯 -- 反内卷主题下资金放大波动率,碳酸锂期货大涨 F0276812 公易答间: 70021310 碳酸锂 2025年7月24日 截至发文,碳酸锂主力合约价格77240元/吨,涨幅8%,日增仓8.8万手。 日内传小作文江西主要锂矿到期或将长期停产,午间已澄清为假消息。 宏观背景,中美第三轮谈判将于7.27-7.30在瑞典举行,中美关系整体回温。近期 一关注点为7月底政治局会议,财政货币政策方面,4月份为应对美国对等关税,已 大相关政策刺激力度,在中美关系缓和、国内金融市场好转背景下,预计本次会议 大财政货币政策刺激可能性较小。重点关注会议对"反内卷"内容的进一步定调。 近日碳酸锂大幅波动为资金面推动影响,昨日,广期所已发布公告,提升工业硅, 多晶硅涨跌停板幅度、交易保证金标准、交易手续费标准、交易限额的通知,碳酸锂 碳酸锂期货LC2509合约的交易手续费标准调整为成交金额的万分之一点六,日内平今 仓交易手续费标准调整为成交金额的万分之一点六。旨在降低投机资金热度,引导投 质者理性投资。 当下碳酸锂期货市场较现货市场价格升水较高,现货市场下游 对高价碳酸锂接受 程度较低,实际成交情况刚需为主。而期货市场 ...

Group 1 - The current market is in a structural deepening phase driven by incremental capital, with a clear path of "policy catalysis - capital inflow - valuation repair" for sector rotation [1][3] - On July 24, the A-share market continued its strong trend, with major indices rising across the board; the ChiNext Index stood out with a 1.5% increase, indicating a sustained preference for growth-oriented companies [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index and the STAR 50 Index rose by 1.21% and 1.17% respectively, while the Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.65% to 3605.73 points, marking its first time above the 3600-point threshold since January 2022 [1] Group 2 - In the A-share market, the leading sectors are driven by both policy catalysis and capital rotation; the Hainan Free Trade Zone concept surged due to the implementation of zero-tariff policies, with the proportion of zero-tariff items rising to 74% [2] - The rare earth and lithium sectors continued to perform strongly, supported by the global restructuring of the rare earth industry and the international certification of the "Nd-Huanghe Mine" by Chinese research teams, which provides new logic for resource value reassessment [2] - The beauty and personal care sector led the industry with a 3.1% increase, reflecting the combined effects of consumer upgrade demand and valuation repair strategies in oversold segments [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent developments in the A-share market, highlighting the impact of government policies and market reactions, particularly focusing on the concept of "anti-involution" in various sectors. Group 1: Market Developments - The State Council announced that the Hainan Free Trade Port will officially start operations on December 18, 2025, with the range of zero-tariff imports expanding to approximately 6,600 tax items, an increase of nearly 53 percentage points compared to before the closure [1]. - The A-share market saw all three major indices reach new highs for the year, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.65%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 1.21%, and the ChiNext Index by 1.5% [3]. - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 18,741.84 billion, a decrease of 245.12 billion from the previous trading day, with over 4,300 stocks rising [3]. Group 2: Sector Performance - The Hainan Free Trade Zone and duty-free shop sectors experienced significant growth, with stocks like Hainan Development and China Duty Free Group hitting the daily limit [3]. - The energy metal sector, particularly lithium mining, saw a surge, with companies like Tianqi Lithium and Shengxin Lithium Energy reaching their daily limits [3]. - The healthcare sector is undergoing reforms in centralized procurement, with new rules optimizing price difference calculations and requiring the lowest bidders to justify their pricing [1]. Group 3: Investment Trends - The article notes that the market's pessimistic expectations for the economy in the second half of the year may gradually dissipate, leading to positive feedback in market confidence and expectations [2]. - The "anti-involution" theme is emphasized, with the government taking steps to regulate pricing behaviors and competition in various industries [1][2]. - The article highlights that the recent price movements in futures markets indicate strong bullish sentiment, particularly in commodities like coke and polysilicon, but also warns of potential risks of price corrections [8].

新闻解读评级说明：五星重磅，四星重要，三星级以下大家选择听。 1、大宗商品涨停潮，交易所风险提示会管用吗？ 本篇评级为★★★，主要围绕以下内容展开： 如有疑问请以音频内容为准，添加妙妙子微信huxiuvip302，入群有机会与董小姐进一步交流。 须知，期货这一金融工具，本质是为实体经济服务，帮助工厂、企业锁定原材料价格、规避大幅波动风 险。然而，眼下期货独自急涨急跌，反而给实体套保带来巨大风险——原本用来避险的工具，如今成 了"挖坑"制造风险。时间一久，必然引起监管注意。 本文为妙投付费内容，上述仅为摘要，购买本专栏即可解锁完整内容。新用户可免费领本专栏7天阅读 体验机会，在妙投APP-我的-权益兑换 输入"妙投888"即可领取。 今天的 A 股市场依旧红通通，我们一起梳理盘面，看看继续向上的潜力有多大，以及可能遇到的风 险。 1、大宗商品涨停潮，交易所风险提示会管用吗？ 2、券商板块透支了吗？从资金层面看两条线索 3、芯片稍稍启动，背后的推动力有多大？ 到目前为止，市场的主线之一仍在横向扩展，这条主线便是去产能赛道。前几日，煤炭、钢铁涨幅巨 大，这两天出现收缩；而横向扩展的结果是又有新主角登场——今天，热点 ...

Group 1: Market Trends - Lithium carbonate futures and spot prices have been rising, with the main contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange closing at 76,680 yuan/ton, an increase of 7,300 yuan/ton or 7.21% in a single day, reaching a new high [1] - Since hitting a low on June 23, the contract has seen a cumulative increase of over 20%, with the spot market also rising; as of July 24, the domestic battery-grade lithium carbonate price was 70,150 yuan/ton, up 17% from June 23 [1] Group 2: Regulatory Environment - The Yichun Natural Resources Bureau issued a notice on July 14, requiring eight local lithium mining companies to prepare resource verification reports by September 30 due to issues related to "bypassing approval authority and overstepping procedures," indicating increased regulatory scrutiny on lithium resource development [1] - On July 17, Cangge Mining announced that its subsidiary, Geermu Cangge Lithium Industry, was ordered to suspend operations and rectify violations related to unauthorized lithium resource extraction [1] Group 3: Supply Chain Dynamics - Jiangte Electric announced on July 21 that its subsidiary Yichun Yinli would start maintenance on all lithium salt production lines on July 25, expected to last about 26 days, further heightening market expectations of a contraction in lithium carbonate supply [2] - The rebound in lithium carbonate prices is attributed not only to production cuts but also to domestic policies aimed at preventing "involution" in the new energy industry, promoting healthy competition and reducing price wars [2] Group 4: Company Performance - Leading companies like Tianqi Lithium and Ganfeng Lithium saw their stocks hit the daily limit up; Tianqi Lithium expects a net profit of 0 to 155 million yuan for the first half of the year, a significant recovery from a loss of 5.2 billion yuan in the same period last year [3] - Ganfeng Lithium anticipates a net loss of 300 million to 550 million yuan for the first half of 2025, a reduction from a loss of 760 million yuan in the previous year [3] Group 5: Market Outlook - There are differing opinions on the sustainability of price increases; while demand remains primarily driven by necessity, many companies are reluctant to accept high lithium prices, leading to a sluggish spot market [3] - Despite rising lithium salt prices pushing up costs, new capacities from South American salt lakes and African mines are expected to be released in the second half of the year, maintaining a long-term oversupply scenario [3] - Industry insiders predict that the supply-demand gap will narrow by 2025, achieving a balance by 2026, followed by a state of tight balance and eventual shortages [3]

作者 | 哥吉拉 数据支持 | 勾股大数 据（www.gogudata.com） 今天 A股震荡反弹，沪指涨0.65%报3605.73点，三年半以来首次收于3600点上方 。 助力 A股站上3600的题材真不少， 近期在"反内卷"主旋律催化下， 很多期货品种开始了大幅反弹，情绪面蔓延到 了股票市场。 今天又轮到了碳酸锂。 国内碳酸锂期货主力合约今天涨势强劲，盘中一度触及涨停（ 8%），关联个股如赣锋锂 业、天齐锂业相继涨停，港股涨幅也一度超过15%。 发生了什么？ 涨停！ 01 板块方面，钢铁、地产、券商、多元金融等板块涨幅居前，锂矿、小金属、水利水电等概念股跟 ，盘面热点杂乱， 海南自贸区、免税店、雅下水电概念涨幅居前。 | Wind中国行业指数 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 林木 | 机场 | 基本金属 | 生物科技 | 券商 | 餐饮旅游 | 3.07% | 2.59% | 2.39% | 4.18% | 3.26% | 2.50% | ...

Market Overview - A-shares experienced a strong rally on July 24, with the Shanghai Composite Index recovering above 3600 points, and the Shenzhen Component Index, ChiNext Index, and Sci-Tech 50 Index all rising over 1% [2] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed up 0.65% at 3605.73 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.21% to 11193.06 points, and the ChiNext Index increased by 1.5% to 2345.37 points [3] Sector Performance - The Hainan Free Trade Zone concept saw significant gains, with stocks like Kangzhi Pharmaceutical and Hainan Airport hitting the daily limit [5] - The lithium mining sector surged, with companies such as Tibet Mining and Tianqi Lithium reaching their daily limits, and Ganfeng Lithium rising by 8% [8] - The rare earth sector was active, with Longi Green Energy and Baotou Steel hitting their daily limits, and other companies like Jinli Permanent Magnet seeing nearly a 10% increase [12] Hainan Free Trade Port - The National Development and Reform Commission announced that the Hainan Free Trade Port will officially start operations on December 18, 2025, marking a significant milestone for the region [6][7] - The establishment of a customs supervision area across Hainan Island is expected to enhance the local tourism industry and improve the business environment, benefiting related sectors such as tourism retail and hotel services [7] Lithium Mining Sector - The lithium mining sector saw a notable rise, with lithium carbonate futures prices reaching a new high of 77,000 yuan/ton, marking a more than 30% increase since late June [10] - Recent regulatory actions in regions like Jiangxi and Qinghai are expected to help clear supply in the lithium industry, potentially impacting domestic lithium resource supply [10] Rare Earth Sector - The rare earth market is anticipated to recover due to improved domestic demand and export expectations, with high-performance neodymium-iron-boron demand projected to grow at a CAGR of 25% from 2020 to 2024 [14] - Domestic prices for praseodymium-neodymium oxide are expected to rise, with recent prices reported at 496,000 yuan/ton, a 25% increase since the beginning of the year [14]

市场快讯 -- 反内卷主题下资金放大波动率,碳酸锂期货大涨 近日碳酸锂大幅波动为资金面推动影响,昨日,广期所已发布公告,提升工业硅, 多晶硅涨跌停板幅度、交易保证金标准、交易手续费标准、交易限额的通知,碳酸锂 碳酸锂期货LC2509合约的交易手续费标准调整为成交金额的万分之一点六,日内平今 仓交易手续费标准调整为成交金额的万分之一点六。旨在降低投机资金热度,引导投 质者理性投资。 当下碳酸锂期货市场较现货市场价格升水较高,现货市场下游 对高价碳酸锂接受 程度较低,实际成交情况刚需为主。而期货市场持仓量不断增长,关注持仓量与仓单 量对比。预计短期碳酸锂仍将手资金影响偏强运行,波动幅度较大,期货单边持有 哈较大,可以买入期权工具作为保护,或考虑买众登录想权费 联糸方式: wangchen@greendh.com 格林大华 期货研究院 证监许可 L2011 碳酸锂 2025年7月24日 截至发文,碳酸锂主力合约价格77240元/吨,涨幅8%,日增仓8.8万手。 日内传小作文江西主要锂矿到期或将长期停产,午间已澄清为假消息。 宏观背景,中美第三轮谈判将于7.27-7.30在瑞典举行,中美关系整体回温。近期 一关注点为 ...

Market Overview - The market showed strong fluctuations throughout the day, with the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing 3600 points and the ChiNext Index rising by 1.5% [1] - The Hainan Free Trade Zone sector experienced a surge, with nearly 20 stocks, including Hainan Airport and Hainan Expressway, hitting the daily limit [1] - Financial stocks also performed well, with Jinlong Co. hitting the limit and Zhinanceng rising over 7% to reach a new high [1] - Lithium mining stocks saw another rally, with Shengxin Lithium and Tianqi Lithium hitting the limit [1] - The rare earth permanent magnet sector was strong, with Baogang Co. and Guangsheng Nonferrous Metals also hitting the limit [1] - The Yajiang Hydropower Station concept stocks remained active, with China Power Construction and Poly United achieving four consecutive limits [1] - Overall, nearly 4400 stocks in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets were in the green, with a total transaction volume of 1.87 trillion [1] Hot Topics Hainan Free Trade Port - The Hainan Free Trade Port concept saw significant gains, with stocks like Caesar Travel, Haixia Co., and Kangzhi Pharmaceutical hitting the limit [4] - The catalyst for this surge was a press conference held on July 23, introducing the construction of the Hainan Free Trade Port, which is set to officially start customs closure on December 18, 2025 [4] Yajiang Hydropower Station Concept Stocks - Yajiang Hydropower Station concept stocks continued to rise, with China Railway Industry and Tibet Tianlu hitting the limit, and others like Xining Special Steel and Shanhe Intelligent achieving four consecutive limits [7] - The total investment for the "Yajiang" project is approximately 705.6 billion, with an estimated annual construction investment of about 47 billion, accounting for 43% of the national hydropower basic construction investment in 2024 [9] Rare Earth Magnetic Materials - The rare earth magnetic materials sector saw a significant increase, with stocks like Zhongke Sanhuan, Baogang Co., and Guangsheng Nonferrous Metals hitting the limit [11] - The domestic rare earth price index has shown a clear upward trend, breaking through 192 points, marking a new high since early 2024 [11] - The tightening of supply and the integration of the entire rare earth industry chain are expected to lead to price increases in the medium to long term [12] Other Notable Sectors - The mosquito repellent concept, lithium batteries, pharmaceuticals, and consumer sectors also showed positive performance [13] - The Yajiang Hydropower Station high-level elimination stocks experienced the largest declines [13]

Group 1 - Tianqi Lithium Industries (002466) reached the daily limit increase, with a trading volume of 4.541 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 7.91% [1] - The post-market data shows that the Shenzhen Stock Connect special seat bought 288 million yuan and sold 142 million yuan, resulting in a net purchase of 145.7 million yuan [2] - Two institutional special seats had a net purchase of 81.51 million yuan, with Fang Xinxia's seat net buying 76.1 million yuan [1][2] Group 2 - The stock was listed on the daily limit increase list due to a price deviation of over 7% [2] - Total buying amounted to 618.55 million yuan, while total selling reached 312.50 million yuan, resulting in a net difference of 306.05 million yuan [2]