证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 11 30 年 月 日 食品饮料 周观点：茅台定调审时度势，原奶周期拐点可期 投资建议：1、白酒：茅台定调理性、科学应对周期波动，供给改善信号进一步明 确，白酒板块动销磨底、报表出清、预期低位下把握底部机遇，建议配置：1）短 期边际变化弹性标的：泸州老窖、港股珍酒李渡、舍得酒业、酒鬼酒、水井坊； 2）筹码结构优化：迎驾贡酒、洋河股份、老白干酒等；3）中长期经营质量龙头 标的：贵州茅台、五粮液、山西汾酒、古井贡酒、今世缘等。2、大众品：中国旺 旺收入同比微增，原奶周期拐点可期，优先关注成长股、后续切换复苏：1）高景 气或高成长逻辑：东鹏饮料、燕京啤酒、珠江啤酒、万辰集团、盐津铺子、有友食 品、新乳业、百龙创园等，港股卫龙美味等。2）政策受益或复苏改善：百润股份、 青岛啤酒、海天味业、伊利股份、重庆啤酒、安琪酵母、洽洽食品、仙乐健康、安 井食品、立高食品、好想你等，港股农夫山泉、华润饮料、H&H 国际控股等。 白酒：茅台定调理性，彰显龙头底色。本周贵州茅台召开 2025 年第一次临时股东 大会，新董事长陈华总携高管团队出席坦诚回应行业发展与茅台未来， ...

Core Insights - The craft beer industry in China is transitioning from niche to mainstream, with increasing competition both online and offline [1][2] - "Dajiu Brewing," founded by Li Yuxing, has achieved significant sales, nearing 100 million yuan annually, and ranks among the top ten in Tmall's beer category [1] - The brand's fruit-flavored craft beers have seen a 105% increase in GMV during the recent Double 11 shopping festival, with female consumers now making up over 50% of the customer base [1][12] Industry Overview - In 2017, the craft beer market was dominated by major brands like Snow Beer and Tsingtao, with a consumer base primarily consisting of expatriates and young urbanites [3][5] - The rise of craft beer has been accelerated by capital influx and market education, leading to a rapid expansion of the industry [5][7] Company Strategy - "Dajiu Brewing" focuses on maintaining control over its supply chain and core technology, which has been crucial for quality assurance and cost management [13][19] - The company emphasizes a hybrid sales strategy, prioritizing offline channels while leveraging online platforms for brand awareness [14][16] Product Development - The brand has shifted its product focus from traditional strong flavors to more approachable fruit-flavored beers, aligning with consumer preferences for lighter, refreshing options [9][11] - New product launches are based on consumer feedback from small-scale tests, ensuring high repurchase rates and market fit [11] Market Trends - The demographic of craft beer consumers is evolving, with a notable increase in female consumers, particularly urban professionals aged 20-30 [16] - The craft beer market is expected to become saturated by 2025, with increased competition from both new entrants and established brands [18][19]

Core Viewpoint - The non-baijiu sector experienced a slight decline of 0.01% on November 28, with Qingdao Beer leading the drop, while the overall market indices showed positive movements [1] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3888.6, up 0.34% - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12984.08, up 0.85% [1] Non-Baijiu Sector Stock Performance - Notable gainers in the non-baijiu sector included: - Mogao Co., Ltd. (600543) with a closing price of 6.29, up 2.11% - Huichuan Beer (600573) at 12.15, up 2.10% - ST Lanhua (000929) at 8.54, up 1.91% - Weilang Co., Ltd. (603779) at 7.02, up 1.15% - Jinfeng Wine Industry (600616) at 5.65, up 1.07% [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The non-baijiu sector saw a net outflow of 121 million yuan from institutional investors - Retail investors contributed a net inflow of 78.65 million yuan, while speculative funds saw a net inflow of 42.59 million yuan [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the food and beverage industry, indicating an expectation that the industry index will outperform the market index by more than 10% over the next six months [2][47]. Core Viewpoints - The white liquor sector is bottoming out, with a focus on structural opportunities. The report anticipates continued pressure on sales in the white liquor market through Q4 of this year and Q1 of next year, with a potential recovery in Q2 of next year due to a low base effect. The report suggests monitoring high-end liquor brands like Kweichow Moutai and other regional brands for investment opportunities [2][44]. - The report highlights a mixed performance across various segments within the food and beverage industry, with certain sectors like snacks and soft drinks showing potential growth driven by key products and channel contributions [2][44]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The SW food and beverage industry index decreased by 2.97% from November 14 to November 27, 2025, outperforming the CSI 300 index by approximately 1.00 percentage points [9][11]. - Most sub-sectors underperformed the CSI 300 index during the same period, with the dairy sector showing the smallest decline of 0.11% [11][12]. - Approximately 6% of stocks in the industry recorded positive returns, with notable gainers including Hai Xin Food (+11.34%) and Nan Qiao Food (+7.86%) [13][14]. - The industry valuation is currently below the five-year average, with a PE ratio of approximately 21.3 times, compared to the historical average of 32 times [15]. 2. Key Industry Data Tracking 2.1 White Liquor Sector - The report notes a decline in the prices of premium liquor brands, with the price of Feitian Moutai at 1590 RMB per bottle, down 50 RMB from the previous period [17]. 2.2 Seasoning Sector - Prices for soybean meal increased, while white sugar and glass prices decreased. The price of white sugar fell to 5470 RMB per ton, a decrease of 290 RMB [22]. 2.3 Beer Sector - The average price of barley decreased to 2195 RMB per ton, while the price of aluminum ingots increased slightly [27]. 2.4 Dairy Sector - The average price of fresh milk remained stable at 3.03 RMB per kilogram [34]. 2.5 Meat Products Sector - The average wholesale price of pork decreased to 18.07 RMB per kilogram, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 22.88% [36]. 3. Industry News - The report mentions a 4.1% year-on-year growth in retail sales of tobacco and alcohol for October 2025, indicating a positive trend in consumer spending [39]. - The report also highlights a 16.1% increase in beer exports for the first ten months of 2025, suggesting a growing international demand [40]. 4. Company Announcements - Yili Group announced a shareholder return plan for 2025-2027, committing to a cash dividend of no less than 75% of the net profit attributable to shareholders [43]. 5. Weekly Industry Perspective - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring economic recovery and distributor confidence in the white liquor sector, while also suggesting investment in high-quality brands and sectors benefiting from policy support [44][45].

Core Points - Asahi Group announced on the 27th that a cyber attack led to a system failure, potentially compromising 1.914 million personal information records of customers and employees [1] - The company's president, Atsushi Katsuki, publicly apologized during a press conference in Tokyo, acknowledging the distress caused to customers and related parties [1] - This is the first public statement from the management since the system failure occurred on September 29 [1] Personal Information Details - Among the potentially leaked information, 1.525 million records are related to customers, including names, addresses, and phone numbers [1] - The hacker group claiming responsibility, known as "Qilin," has released internal documents and images of employee personal information online, stating that approximately 9,300 files were stolen [1]

Core Points - Asahi Group apologized for a cyber attack that led to the leakage of 1.914 million personal information records of customers and employees [1] - The company’s president publicly addressed the situation for the first time since the system failure on September 29 [1] - The leaked information includes 1.525 million customer-related records, containing names, addresses, and phone numbers [1] - The hacker group "Qilin" claimed responsibility, stating they stole approximately 9,300 internal documents and released images of employee personal information [1] - Asahi Group holds about 40% market share in the Japanese beer market, leading competitors such as Kirin, Suntory, and Sapporo [1] - Following the incident, Asahi Group's stock price initially dropped but has since recovered, reaching a new high in the rebound phase [1]

Group 1 - The core issue is a data breach at Asahi Group, affecting 1.914 million personal information records due to a cyber attack, with the company’s president publicly apologizing for the incident [3][4]. - Among the leaked information, 1.525 million records pertain to customers, including names, addresses, and phone numbers [4]. - The hacker group "Qilin" claimed responsibility, stating they stole approximately 9,300 internal documents and released images of employee personal information [4]. Group 2 - The incident marks the first public acknowledgment from Asahi Group's management since the system failure began on September 29 [3].

Core Viewpoint - The "2025 New Consumption Summit Forum" successfully concluded in Beijing, highlighting the importance of quality and sustainable development in the consumer industry [1] Group 1 - Budweiser Investment (China) Co., Ltd. was awarded the "Excellence Quality Leading Award" at the forum for its outstanding quality and sustainable development practices [1]

Core Viewpoint - Qingdao Beer announced plans to invest idle funds in financial products, with a maximum daily balance of up to RMB 10 billion, from December 1, 2025, to November 30, 2026, allowing for fund recycling [1] Summary by Category - **Investment Plans** - The company intends to utilize idle self-owned funds for financial investments [1] - The maximum daily balance for these investments is set at RMB 10 billion [1] - The investment period is from December 1, 2025, to November 30, 2026, with the funds being recyclable [1]

Core Viewpoint - Qingdao Beer Co., Ltd. plans to engage in wealth management investment activities over the next 12 months, selecting reputable financial institutions as trustees [1] Summary by Categories Investment Plans - The company intends to conduct wealth management investment activities from December 1, 2025, to November 30, 2026 [1] - The maximum daily balance for these investment activities will not exceed RMB 10 billion, and the subscribed funds can be recycled [1]