Group 1 - The U.S. has taken a harsh stance against Japan, despite Japan's past support during the Gulf War and alignment with U.S. strategies in the Indo-Pacific region [1][3] - Japan's purchase of F-35 fighter jets is seen as both a payment for U.S. protection and a show of support for U.S. strategies [1] - The U.S. has previously exploited Japan's economy through the Plaza Accord, which forced the appreciation of the yen and weakened Japan's economic growth [3] Group 2 - Japan has overestimated its influence and the strength of its alliance with the U.S., leading to a lack of compromise in negotiations [5] - The U.S. has imposed a 25% tariff on Japan, contrasting with its more lenient approach towards the UK, indicating a targeted strategy against Japan [7] - Japan's economic development has relied on U.S. industrial transfers, and the current U.S. policies are seen as a means to extract further economic benefits from Japan [9]

"大而美"法案的支持者声称，法案将通过企业回流与投资增长重塑美国经济竞争力。不过，当减税红利 被关税成本抵消，企业实际承担的合规成本与供应链中断损失，可能远超税收优惠。更关键的是，以邻 为壑的政策必然引发反制——欧盟已酝酿针对性关税，新兴市场则在加速"去美元化"布局。这种对抗性 循环一旦形成，全球经济增长的整体蛋糕将持续萎缩，最终反噬美国企业的海外利润根基。 本届美国政府就职以来推出的种种争议政策，反映出美国国内经济治理失序的困境。这种政策变动正对 世界经济带来多重冲击。 首先，多边贸易体系遭遇信任危机。当美国以国内法案为由单方面调整关税，其行为违背了世界贸易组 织（WTO）框架下的互惠原则。欧盟、日本等传统盟友被迫重新评估与美国的贸易关系，新兴经济体 则加速推进区域自贸协定以规避系统性风险。全球供应链从效率优先转向安全优先的重构进程，因美国 政策不可预测性而显著提速。 其次，美元信用基础面临持续侵蚀。法案再度提升债务上限，虽然暂时避免债务违约，却让美国国债规 模突破40万亿美元。当财政纪律让位于政治周期，各国央行对美元资产的长期信心必然受损。历史表 明，主权货币的全球地位不仅依赖市场，更需要货币发行国的财政 ...

Performance Forecast - The company expects a loss of 100 million to 120 million yuan for the current reporting period, compared to a profit of 7.4027 million yuan in the same period last year, representing a decline of 1450.86% to 1721.03% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be a loss of 77 million to 95 million yuan, with a significant decrease of 1681.38% to 2097.80% compared to the previous year [1] - Basic earnings per share are expected to be a loss of 0.2148 to 0.2578 yuan, contrasting with earnings of 0.0159 yuan per share in the prior year [1] Communication with Auditors - The financial data related to the performance forecast is based on preliminary calculations by the company's finance department and has not been audited by the accounting firm [1] - The company has communicated with the auditing firm regarding the performance forecast, and there are no discrepancies between the company and the auditors [1] Reasons for Performance Changes - The company's performance has been adversely affected by the real estate market environment, leading to lower-than-expected sales of developed real estate projects [1] - The trade business has also seen a significant decline compared to last year due to domestic and international trade environment factors, further impacting the company's operational performance and resulting in a loss for the half-year period [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - This week, domestic commodities continued a slight rebound, with both industrial and agricultural products extending their upward trends. The main reasons were the economic resilience of China and the US, a mitigation of geopolitical risks, and a weakening US dollar, which improved market risk appetite and led to the commodity market rebound [3]. - The US labor market showed some resilience in June, but due to a high proportion of government employment and potential future downward revisions, continued monitoring is needed. The Fed may increase the flexibility of interest - rate cuts, and there is a possibility of a rate cut in September [3]. - The "Big and Beautiful" tax and spending bill passed by the US Congress is expected to boost the GDP by an average of 1.0% over ten years (2025 - 2034) and increase long - term GDP by 1.2%. However, it may widen the wealth gap and raise concerns about US fiscal sustainability [3]. - The US is in the final stage of trade negotiations, and Trump has signed tariff letters for 12 countries with tariff rates ranging from 10% to 70%, set to take effect on August 1 [3]. - China's official manufacturing PMI in June was 49.7, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous value, indicating an overall improvement in the domestic economy. However, the manufacturing sector has not emerged from contraction, and small enterprises and emerging industries face significant pressure. There are still concerns about the domestic economic development, and new incremental policies may be introduced in the second half of the year [3]. - In the short term, uncertainty in the commodity market has increased, and market volatility may intensify. Although there are positive factors such as economic resilience and geopolitical easing, the approaching end of the US tariff suspension period and slow negotiation progress may cause market disruptions [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Sections PART TWO: Overseas Situation Analysis - **US Labor Market**: In June, the US added 147,000 non - farm jobs, higher than the expected 106,000, and the unemployment rate was 4.1%, lower than the expected 4.3% and the previous value of 4.2%. However, due to a high proportion of government employment and potential future downward revisions, continued monitoring is required. The Fed may increase the flexibility of interest - rate cuts, and a rate cut in September is possible [3]. - **US Tax Bill**: The "Big and Beautiful" tax and spending bill passed by the US Congress is expected to boost the GDP by an average of 1.0% over ten years (2025 - 2034) and increase long - term GDP by 1.2%. But it may widen the wealth gap and raise concerns about US fiscal sustainability [3]. - **US Trade Negotiations**: The US is in the final stage of trade negotiations. Trump has signed tariff letters for 12 countries with tariff rates ranging from 10% to 70%, set to take effect on August 1 [3]. PART THREE: Domestic Situation Analysis - **China's PMI**: China's official manufacturing PMI in June was 49.7, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous value, indicating an overall improvement in the domestic economy. However, the manufacturing sector has not emerged from contraction, and small enterprises and emerging industries face significant pressure. The Strategic Emerging Industries PMI (EPMI) decreased by 3.1 percentage points to 47.9%, a new low for the year [3][21]. - **Domestic Economic Concerns**: There are still concerns about the domestic economic development. Externally, the end of the US tariff suspension period is approaching, and the progress of trade negotiations is slow. Domestically, the real estate market has seen a decline in both volume and price, and emerging industries face pressure. New incremental policies may be introduced in the second half of the year [3]. PART FOUR: High - Frequency Data Tracking - **Industrial Data**: On July 4, the operating rates of PTA plants, polyester plants, and POY were 76%, 89%, and 64% respectively [32]. - **Automobile Sales Data**: The data shows the trends of factory wholesale and retail sales and their year - on - year changes [35]. - **Agricultural Product Prices**: The data presents the average wholesale prices of various agricultural products such as vegetables, pork, fruits, and the Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index [40].

Group 1: Banking Sector Performance - The banking sector has seen significant growth, with 15 bank stocks reaching historical highs this year, representing 35.7% of the total 42 bank stocks [1] - The median increase in the banking sector's stock prices is 18.7%, compared to a mere 1.2% increase in the CSI 300 index during the same period [1] - The total market capitalization of the banking sector has risen to 15.96 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.38 trillion yuan from the end of 2024 [1] Group 2: ETF Performance - The Bank AH Preferred ETF has increased by 25.84% this year, while several other bank ETFs have also shown strong performance, with increases exceeding 20% [3] - The total number of bank ETFs has expanded, with the first batch of 10 technology innovation bond ETFs set to launch, potentially increasing the total number of bond ETFs to 39 [11][12] Group 3: Insurance Capital Movements - Insurance capital has accelerated its stake acquisitions in the capital market, with 18 instances of stake purchases recorded in 2025, nearing the total of 20 for the entire year of 2024 [5] - Bank stocks have become a primary target for these stake acquisitions, indicating a growing interest from insurance companies in the banking sector [5] Group 4: IPO Developments - There is a resurgence in IPO activities for mainland bank stocks, with Dongguan Bank and Nanhai Rural Commercial Bank updating their financial documents for IPO applications [6] - Currently, there are six banks waiting for IPO approval on the Shenzhen and Shanghai stock exchanges [6]

今天分享的是：2025贸易摩擦与资产配置逻辑：财政、司法、货币、贸易纠缠中的关税摩擦 报告共计：25页 2025贸易摩擦透视：关税政策背后的多方角力与全球影响 当前，全球贸易格局正被一场围绕关税政策的复杂博弈所牵动。美国特朗普政府推行的关税政策不仅是其贸易策略的核心，更 深度纠缠于财政平衡、司法争议、货币政策及国际博弈之中，其走向正深刻影响着全球经济的节奏。 关税：特朗普经济政策的"平衡支点" 在特朗普政府的经济框架中，关税政策扮演着特殊角色——它既是贸易保护的工具，也是财政平衡的"调节器"。其核心逻辑是 通过"国内减税、国外加税"的税负转嫁策略，在维持国内减税政策的同时，试图通过关税收入弥补财政缺口。 这一策略的关键载体是"大而美"法案（OBBBA）。政府宣称，该法案通过削减支出和新增关税，能在10年内减少数万亿美元赤 字；但美国国会预算办公室（CBO）却持相反观点，认为法案会扩大赤字。争议的焦点在于基线设定：白宫以"现有政策"为基 准，强调法案的减赤效果；而CBO以"现有法律"为基准，认为法案会加剧赤字。这种分歧凸显了关税对特朗普财政计划的重要 性——若没有关税带来的额外收入，减税政策可能导致赤字大幅扩张 ...

Group 1 - A surge in retail investors in Japan has been observed, with the number of individual shareholders increasing by 12.3% to reach 83.6 million, marking a historical high since 1949 [1][3] - The Japanese small investment tax exemption system (NISA) has significantly contributed to this trend, with cumulative purchases under NISA growing by 50% year-on-year to approximately 52 trillion yen by the end of 2024 [3] - Despite the increase in retail investors, the overall performance of the Japanese stock market has been disappointing, with the Nikkei index declining by 4% in the 2024 fiscal year, the worst performance since 2019 [3] Group 2 - Warren Buffett's announcement of Berkshire Hathaway's significant investment in Japan's five major trading companies has spurred retail investors to follow suit, leading to increased investments in these stocks [4] - The sentiment among Japanese retail investors reflects a "follow the leader" mentality, with many believing in Buffett's value investment philosophy [4] - Analysts suggest that even a small return of retail investor funds to the stock market could result in a substantial influx of capital, potentially up to $220 billion [4]

Economic Development - Hong Kong's economy is showing steady improvement, with new advantages and strengths emerging, leading to significant global ranking advancements [1][2] - As of 2024, Hong Kong manages nearly $4 trillion in assets, with around 3,000 family offices operating in the region, over half of which have assets exceeding $50 million [2] - The Hang Seng Index has led global markets, with IPO fundraising exceeding HKD 90 billion, ranking first worldwide [2] Trade and Investment - The trade volume between mainland China and Hong Kong has increased from CNY 420.87 billion in 1997 to CNY 2.2 trillion in 2024, representing a 4.2-fold growth with an average annual increase of 6.3% [3] - Hong Kong's air cargo volume remains the highest globally, and its ship registration tonnage ranks fourth worldwide [2] Social and Infrastructure Development - The Hong Kong government has accelerated housing and land supply, introducing "simple public housing" while reducing the waiting time for public housing from a peak of 6.1 years to 5.3 years [2] - Public welfare programs have expanded, including the extension of elderly medical vouchers to more healthcare institutions in the Greater Bay Area [2] Youth Employment and Talent Attraction - The Hong Kong government has relaxed eligibility for youth employment programs to enhance job capabilities among young people [2] - Over 80 cutting-edge technology companies have established operations in Hong Kong, reflecting the region's renewed competitiveness in attracting talent [2]

Core Viewpoint - Japan is experiencing a surge in retail investors, with the number of individual shareholders reaching a historic high, driven by favorable market conditions and investment incentives like the NISA program [2][3][4]. Group 1: Retail Investor Growth - The number of individual shareholders in Japan increased by over 12% in the fiscal year 2024, reaching approximately 83.6 million, marking the largest increase since records began in 1949 [3][4]. - The total market value of stocks held by retail investors decreased by 4% year-on-year, amounting to 164 trillion yen (approximately 1.14 trillion USD) [4]. Group 2: Impact of NISA and Market Conditions - The NISA program has seen a 50% year-on-year increase in cumulative purchases, totaling around 52 trillion yen by the end of December 2024, indicating a shift of funds from savings to investments [2][4]. - Stock splits by major companies like Mitsubishi Heavy Industries and Hitachi contributed to the addition of 2.7 million new shareholders by lowering the entry price for retail investors [4]. Group 3: Influence of Warren Buffett - The investment strategies of Warren Buffett, particularly his significant stake in Japan's five major trading companies, have inspired many retail investors to follow suit [5][6]. - Retail investors perceive their value investment approach as aligned with Buffett's, leading to increased interest in trading company stocks [7]. Group 4: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the growing participation of retail investors could lead to a more stable shareholder base for trading companies, benefiting from long-term holdings [8]. - Even a small shift of 1% of cash into the stock market by retail investors could result in an influx of approximately 220 billion USD into the Japanese stock market [8].

Core Viewpoint - The collaborative development of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Free Trade Zones is vibrant, but faces challenges such as inconsistent tax policies and tax sharing issues among the three regions [2][3][5] Tax Policy Inconsistencies - There are differences in applicable tax rates for certain taxes like vehicle and vessel tax, urban land use tax, property tax, and deed tax due to the varying economic development levels and resource endowments of the three regions [2][3] - The lack of coordination in tax incentive policies leads to inconsistent recognition standards for innovation, affecting businesses operating across regions [3][4] Recommendations for Tax Policy Coordination - A unified tax rate standard for vehicle and vessel tax, urban land use tax, property tax, and deed tax should be established based on thorough research and consideration of regional economic conditions [4] - A tax incentive policy coordination mechanism should be created to ensure consistency and coherence of tax incentive policies across the three regions [4] Challenges in Tax Revenue Sharing - The tax revenue sharing faces three main challenges: the divergence between tax revenue and tax sources, the need for improved tax coordination mechanisms, and differences in tax collection standards and policy execution among the regions [5] - The "siphoning effect" leads to tax revenue outflow from regions like Hebei due to cross-regional operations and headquarters economy [5] Suggestions for Improvement - The "Tongwu-Lang" area should be explored as a pilot for tax revenue sharing, focusing on key parks and cross-regional joint investment platforms [5] - Flexibility in horizontal transfer payments should be utilized to facilitate tax revenue sharing and address issues related to tax base division and factor mobility [5] - Integration of tax administration services across the three regions should be deepened, promoting a collaborative governance model [5]