非银金融 2025 年 07 月 27 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 -17% 0% 17% 34% 50% 67% 84% 2024-07 2024-11 2025-03 非银金融 沪深300 数据来源：聚源 相关研究报告 《券商定增再填一例，继续看好低估 值券商板块机会 — 行 业 周 报 》 -2025.7.20 《券商中报预告超预期，继续推荐券 商板块—行业点评报告》-2025.7.15 《险企考核周期再拉长，券商中报超 预期继续推荐—行业周报》-2025.7.13 预定利率调降 50bp 符合预期，交易量站上两万亿 ——行业周报 | 高超（分析师） | 卢崑（分析师） | | --- | --- | | gaochao1@kysec.cn | lukun@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790520050001 | 证书编号：S0790524040002 | lukun@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790524040002 周观点：预定利率调降 50bp 符合预期，交易量站上两万亿 2季度公募持仓数据看，券商板块仍明显欠配：2025Q2主动型基金重仓股中券商 板块占比0.78% ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the non-bank financial sector, indicating an "Overweight" investment rating for the industry [1][2]. Core Insights - The non-bank financial sector has shown strong performance, with the Shenwan Non-Bank Index rising by 3.52% during the week, outperforming the CSI 300 Index, which increased by 1.69% [5]. - Public funds have significantly increased their allocation to the non-bank sector, with the active equity fund heavy positions in the sector rising by 99 basis points quarter-on-quarter to 2.16% in Q2 2025 [2]. - The report highlights a positive trend in brokerage firms' earnings, with 27 traditional brokerages reporting year-on-year profit increases for Q2 2025, indicating a robust recovery in the sector [2]. - The insurance sector is also expected to benefit from a decrease in the cost of new liabilities and an increase in the value of participating insurance options, leading to a favorable outlook for the insurance industry [2]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The CSI 300 Index closed at 4,127.16, with a weekly change of +1.69%, while the non-bank index closed at 1,989.03, reflecting a weekly increase of +3.52% [5]. - The brokerage sector saw a significant increase of 4.82%, while the insurance sector rose by 1.83% [5]. Non-Bank Industry News and Key Announcements - The report notes that the China Insurance Association has indicated that the current research value for the predetermined interest rate of ordinary life insurance products is 1.99%, which is expected to trigger a reduction in the maximum predetermined interest rate for new products [18]. - The report mentions that the market sentiment has improved significantly, with daily trading volumes exceeding 1.7 trillion yuan, indicating a high level of trading activity [2][15]. - The report also highlights that the brokerage firm Shouhua Securities plans to issue H-shares and list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, marking a significant move in the competitive landscape of the brokerage industry [2][23].

Market Overview - The market continues to operate in an upward trend, with the core observation variable being whether the market's profit-making effect can be sustained. As long as the profit-making effect is positive, incremental capital is expected to continue entering the market. Currently, the WIND All A trend line is around 5400 points, with a profit-making effect value of 4.09%, which is significantly positive. Even in the face of short-term fluctuations, it is recommended to hold patiently or increase positions on dips [1][3][8]. Performance Metrics - The Davis Double strategy has an excess benchmark of -0.44% this week, with a cumulative absolute return of 26.78% for the year. The CSI 300 Enhanced strategy has an excess benchmark of 0.31% this week, with a cumulative excess return of 16.82% for the year. The net profit gap strategy has an excess benchmark of -1.68% this week, with a cumulative absolute return of 35.72% for the year [1][9][13]. Sector Recommendations - In terms of industry allocation, the mid-term perspective continues to recommend sectors that are experiencing a turnaround, including Hong Kong innovative drugs, Hong Kong securities, and Hang Seng consumption. The upward trend remains intact. The TWO BETA model continues to recommend the technology sector, focusing on military industry, AI applications, and solid-state batteries. Overall, in the upward trend, attention should be paid to high-elasticity sectors such as brokerages and technology [2][3][8]. Valuation Indicators - The overall PE of the WIND All A index is around the 70th percentile, indicating a medium level, while the PB is around the 30th percentile, indicating a relatively low level. Based on short-term trend assessments, the absolute return products with WIND All A as the stock allocation subject are recommended to have an 80% position [4][6]. Market Dynamics - The timing system signals show that the distance between the 20-day and 120-day moving averages continues to expand, with the latest data showing the 20-day line at 5437 and the 120-day line at 5168 points. The difference between the two lines has increased from 4.04% last week to 5.21%, with an absolute value significantly greater than 3%. The market continues to operate in an upward trend [3][8].

券商板块主动权益配置比例环比提高，但仍低配较多。A 股方面，25Q2 券商主动权益公募重仓市值达 84 亿元，环比 +46%，行业配置比例为 0.64%，环比+0.22pct，行业低配 3.14pct，环比收窄 0.21pct。港股方面，券商港股主动权益 公募重仓市值 9.8 亿元，环比+83%，行业配置比例为 0.30%，环比+0.14pct，行业低配 0.45pct，环比收窄 0.03pct。 多元金融方面，港交所配置比例显著提升。A 股方面，江苏金租主动权益公募配置比例为 0.08%，环比持平，超配 0.03pct； H 股方面，港交所、九方智投控股主动权益公募配置比例为 0.65%、0.05%，环比+0.43pct、+0.05pct。 市场交投活跃，成交额大幅提升。根据 iFinD 数据，本周 A 股日均成交额 18487 亿元，环比+19.6%。截至 7/24，融资 /融券余额分别为 19284/136 亿元，分别较前周+2.1%/+3.4%，分别较上年末+4.0%/+30.5%。2025 年日均两融余额 18515 亿元，同比+21%。 投资建议：建议关注三条主线：（2）业绩增速亮眼的多元金融，建 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive long-term investment outlook for the banking sector despite short-term fluctuations in stock performance [2][4]. Core Insights - The insurance sector is experiencing a shift with the adjustment of the guaranteed interest rates for life insurance products, which is expected to enhance the investment capabilities of leading insurance companies [2][13][17]. - The brokerage sector shows strong performance with a notable increase in stock prices, driven by favorable market conditions and increased trading activity [3][18][19]. - The banking sector is currently facing a downturn, but long-term growth potential remains intact, with a focus on selecting banks with strong fundamentals and high dividend yields [4][20][21]. Summary by Sections Insurance Sector - The insurance index increased by 1.83%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.14 percentage points [2][12]. - The standard interest rate for ordinary life insurance products has been adjusted to 1.99%, down from 2.13%, prompting several insurance companies to lower their rates [13][14]. - The trend towards dividend insurance products is expected to grow, as they can effectively reduce liability costs and enhance competitiveness [14][17]. Brokerage Sector - The brokerage index rose by 4.82%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 3.13 percentage points, indicating strong market sentiment [3][18]. - The average daily trading volume increased by 20% to 18,487 billion yuan, reflecting sustained market activity [18][40]. - The report highlights the potential for significant gains in the brokerage sector due to favorable macroeconomic conditions and ongoing financial technology advancements [19][20]. Banking Sector - The banking index fell by 2.87%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 4.56 percentage points, indicating short-term challenges [4][20]. - Despite recent declines, the long-term outlook for the banking sector remains positive, with a focus on banks that exhibit strong earnings stability and high dividend yields [21][22]. - Investment strategies should prioritize banks with high asset quality and low non-performing loan ratios, as well as those benefiting from favorable market conditions [24][25].

Core Insights - The market is experiencing a strong upward trend, with the offshore RMB showing signs of breaking out against the USD. This is expected to create a bullish mid-term outlook for A-shares, with the Shanghai Composite Index potentially aiming beyond the previous high of 3674 points set on October 8, 2024 [1][4][54] - Short-term fluctuations are anticipated due to profit-taking, but key support levels such as recent short-term gaps and the 20-day moving average are expected to provide stability [1][4][54] Weekly Market Overview - Major indices collectively rose, with the STAR 50 leading the gains. The Shanghai Composite Index, Shanghai 50, and CSI 300 increased by 1.67%, 1.12%, and 1.69% respectively, while the STAR 50 surged by 4.63% [2][12] - The cyclical sector showed strong performance, with coal, steel, non-ferrous metals, building materials, and construction leading the gains, rising by 8.00%, 7.55%, 7.10%, 6.44%, and 6.21% respectively [2][13][53] - Market sentiment improved significantly, with average daily trading volume rising to 1.83 trillion RMB, indicating increased investor activity [2][19] Fund Flow Analysis - The margin trading balance increased significantly to 1.94 trillion RMB, with the proportion of financing purchases rising to 10.56% [2][28] - Stock ETFs saw a net inflow of 4.04 billion RMB, with infrastructure ETFs attracting the most inflow while securities ETFs experienced the largest outflow [2][28] Sector Configuration Recommendations - The report suggests maintaining a balanced allocation strategy of "1+1+X," focusing on large financial institutions (banks and brokerages) alongside sectors like military, computing, media, electronics, and new energy [5][56] - In light of increased market risk appetite, a shift from large banks to smaller banks is recommended to enhance portfolio flexibility [5][56] - Continuous investment in brokerage firms is advised to mitigate upward risks, while switching from high-performing stocks to those near their annual moving averages is suggested [5][56]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a significant rotation among sectors, with high dividend stocks, technology stocks, and new concepts like the Yajiang concept and "anti-involution" stocks gaining momentum, leading to increased market activity and investor sentiment [6][7][24]. Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index has broken through the 3600-point mark for the first time since January 2022, closing at this level on July 24, 2023, with a trading volume of 1.84 trillion yuan, marking a significant recovery from the previous year's level of around 2900 points [4][10]. - Over the past three months, the index has risen from 3040 points to 3600 points, reflecting a cumulative increase of over 18% [5]. Sector Rotation - The market has seen a rapid shift in hot sectors, with banks initially leading the charge, followed by brokers and technology stocks, and new concepts like "anti-involution" and "Yajiang hydropower" making significant gains [23][24]. - The Yajiang hydropower project, with a total investment of 1.2 trillion yuan, is expected to boost GDP by approximately 2.04 trillion yuan over ten years, further igniting market enthusiasm [24]. Institutional Investment - Institutional investors have noted a significant influx of long-term capital into the market, with central financial institutions increasing their holdings in exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and insurance companies actively participating in equity investments [10][16]. - The central government has emphasized the importance of stabilizing the market and promoting long-term capital inflows, which has led to a more favorable investment environment [10]. Investor Sentiment - There is a mix of optimism and skepticism among investors, with some feeling the market is entering a bull phase while others remain cautious, waiting for clearer signals [7][30]. - The recent market activity has attracted more retail investors, as evidenced by the significant increase in trading volumes and the overall positive sentiment surrounding the market's recovery [31][32]. Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the current market conditions may lead to a "slow bull" market, characterized by steady growth rather than rapid fluctuations, driven by structural changes in the market and ongoing policy support [36]. - The market's ability to maintain momentum will depend on continued capital inflows and the successful navigation of potential economic pressures [32][35].

Market Overview - The A-share market has shown significant activity, with the Shanghai Composite Index returning to the 3600-point level, and the ChiNext Index leading the major broad-based indices [1] - Several brokerages indicate that the market's main theme is expansion, driven by policy expectations and mid-year performance catalysts, focusing on technology, resources, and dividend themes [1] Sector Performance - The construction and infrastructure sectors have seen substantial gains, with engineering machinery, civil blasting, and cement sectors leading the way [1] - The "anti-involution" policy and the launch of the Yarlung Tsangpo River infrastructure plan have shifted the focus of asset trading towards domestic demand recovery, resulting in significant increases in risk assets like industrial metals and Chinese stocks [1] Risk Assessment - Despite the market's upward movement, structural risks are emerging, with high market risk appetite and strong capital support noted [2] - The concentration of funds in high-growth sectors has led to a crowded market, particularly in stocks related to the Yarlung Tsangpo River hydropower projects and a general rise in commodity prices [2] Earnings Forecast - Approximately 1500 listed companies have disclosed their mid-year earnings forecasts, with 44% expecting positive results and 42% anticipating losses [3] - Companies involved in overseas markets are highlighted as key players with potential for exceeding earnings expectations, particularly in the technology sector related to the North American AI supply chain and gaming [3] Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the second half of 2025 may see a breakthrough similar to that of the second half of 2014, although short-term catalysts from the economy or policy are still awaited [4] - Investment strategies for the third quarter should maintain a medium to high position, focusing on sectors with improvement potential, including TMT, high-end equipment, military, innovative pharmaceuticals, and trading opportunities in consumption, real estate, and upstream resources [4]

Market Overview - On July 25, A-shares experienced adjustments, with the Sci-Tech 50 Index rising over 2% against the trend. The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3593.66 points, down 0.33%, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index fell by 0.22% and 0.23%, respectively. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 1.7873 trillion yuan, a decrease of 57.4 billion yuan from the previous trading day, marking the seventh consecutive day of exceeding 1.5 trillion yuan. Notable stocks included Northern Rare Earth, China Power Construction, and Dongfang Wealth, each with trading volumes exceeding 10 billion yuan [1]. Technology Sector - The technology sector saw a significant inflow of funds, particularly in AI applications. Companies such as Insai Group and CloudWalk Technology experienced gains of 20% and over 10%, respectively. The World Artificial Intelligence Conference (WAIC) is set to take place from July 26 to 29, featuring over 60 leading domestic and foreign enterprises, showcasing more than 3000 cutting-edge exhibits, the largest scale in history. Analysts believe that the trend in the AI industry will continue to drive capital expenditure from major tech companies and boost the performance of companies in the computing power supply chain [2]. Healthcare Sector - The healthcare sector was notably active, with medical device, CRO, and AI medical stocks performing well. Kangtai Medical surged by 20%, while other companies like Nanwei Medical and Yiming Pharmaceutical also saw significant gains. Recent announcements from the National Medical Insurance Administration regarding the optimization of centralized procurement rules and the introduction of new drug directories for commercial health insurance are expected to positively impact the sector. Analysts suggest that the healthcare industry may see a recovery in valuations and performance due to these changes [3][4]. Investment Strategies - Investment strategies are focusing on two main directions: first, on generic drugs and medical devices that continue to win bids in centralized procurement, which are expected to gain market share; second, on innovative pharmaceutical companies with rich R&D pipelines that have core products entering medical insurance or are likely to be included in new drug directories [4]. - Analysts from Dongfang Securities and Zhongyuan Securities suggest that the current macroeconomic expectations are stable, with a generally ample capital environment. They recommend focusing on sectors with high growth in performance and technology, as well as high-dividend banks and public utilities [5][6]. Fund Allocation Trends - Recent fund allocation trends indicate a clear shift towards industry leaders in sectors such as communication, non-bank finance, media, agriculture, and beauty care, while significant reductions were seen in steel, coal, real estate, and food and beverage sectors. Analysts recommend focusing on four main lines: AI-driven communication and hardware, non-bank finance, new consumption trends in Hong Kong stocks, and safety-related investments [6].

朋友们，我认为我们不用太慌，指数跌也跌不到哪去，大概率还是围绕着3600点来回震荡，不过大家得 适应一点，后面市场的波动可能会变小，没有像本周这么上蹿下跳的这个超强的体验感了。那震荡的时 候我们板块要分两头看，一边是资源和基建可能还会往下压一压，另一边银行、保险、券商这些金融股 可能会出来护盘，他们给指数兜个底，接下来一周我们的任务就是找一找这些从基建权重里面出来的资 金会移到哪些新方向？今天盘中人工智能和半导体科创全部都动了，是一个非常好的信号，我们希望周 末有消息催化下一周这些题材在这里能够拿起选中的接力棒，那在这里呢祝大家周末快乐。 星期五收盘了，上午盘面很无聊，但是下午弥补我们了。和讯投顾徐梦婧表示，我们的科创芯片盘中一 度涨了三个多点，我们看好的科技终于动了，收盘收了一根阴线，最明显的感觉就是今天的市场没有人 玩了，成交量比昨天同一时间少了快500亿，那这个缩量的幅度不小，说明什么？说明涨了一周之后， 现在大伙都开始观望了，那指数为啥今天跌了？主要就是一些大块头的公司，比如说水电和海南带着工 程机械一起，包括银行还有那些反内卷的行业，这些权重股，今天集体怕我那指数肯定扛不住，尤其是 这些都是上证50 ...