Core Insights - The expansion roadmap for China's national carbon emissions trading market has been officially unveiled, with a clear timeline for including additional industries by 2027, aiming to cover approximately 75% of national CO2 emissions [1][4]. Summary by Sections Carbon Market Expansion - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment has released a quota distribution plan for the steel, cement, and aluminum smelting industries for 2024 and 2025, marking a significant step in the carbon market's expansion [1][4]. - By including these three industries, the total number of key emission units will reach around 3,700, covering emissions of approximately 8 billion tons, which accounts for over 60% of national carbon emissions [4]. Future Industry Inclusion - The final goal is to achieve full coverage of major emission industries in the industrial sector by 2027, with preliminary preparations already underway for the chemical, petrochemical, civil aviation, and paper industries [4][5]. - Predictions suggest that once eight major industries are fully included, over 8,000 enterprises will enter the market, covering more than 70% of greenhouse gas emissions nationwide [4]. Technical Preparations - The Ministry has collected and verified carbon emission data from relevant industries since 2013, laying the groundwork for scientifically determining total quotas [5]. - A comprehensive set of technical documents related to quota distribution, accounting, reporting, and verification is being expedited, alongside upgrades to the national carbon market management platform and trading systems [5]. Market Dynamics and Pricing - The diversity of market participants is expected to enhance the pricing function of the carbon market, with the current closing price around 66 yuan per ton [5]. - Industry experts predict that carbon prices could rise significantly, potentially reaching between 130 to 180 yuan per ton by 2027, driven by quota control and paid distribution mechanisms [5]. Industry-Specific Impacts - Different industries will experience varying impacts from the carbon market expansion, with sectors like electricity and steel being better prepared compared to more complex industries like petrochemicals and paper [6]. - The aviation sector faces additional challenges, including external pressures such as the EU carbon border tax [6]. Future Market Development - By 2030, the goal is to establish a carbon market based on total quota control, combining free and paid distribution, to create a reasonable carbon pricing mechanism [7]. - The Ministry has indicated that total quota control will be prioritized in stable emission sectors, gradually tightening quotas to enhance market efficiency and optimize carbon reduction resource allocation [7].

Core Points - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment has released a roadmap for expanding the national carbon market, aiming to cover major industrial sectors by 2027 [1][2] - The national carbon market currently includes approximately 3,700 key emission units, covering around 8 billion tons of carbon emissions, which accounts for over 60% of the national total [2][3] - The eight key industries targeted for inclusion in the carbon market account for about 75% of China's carbon dioxide emissions [2][3] Summary by Sections Carbon Market Expansion - The Ministry has initiated preparatory work for expanding the carbon market to include the chemical, petrochemical, civil aviation, and paper industries [4] - The expansion will follow a principle of "mature one, include one," based on industry development status and carbon emission characteristics [1][4] Current Market Status - As of August 2025, 1,277 key emission units from newly included industries have opened trading accounts [5] - The carbon market has expanded to include three major industries: steel, cement, and aluminum smelting, with a total of 1,500 key emission units [6] Allocation and Pricing Mechanism - The allocation method for carbon quotas will be similar to that of the power generation sector, with free allocation based on carbon emissions per unit of output for 2024 and 2025 [6][7] - By 2027, a new mechanism combining total quota control and both free and paid allocation will be implemented, potentially raising carbon prices from around 50 yuan/ton to between 130 and 180 yuan/ton [7][10] Industry Impact - Different industries will experience varying impacts from the carbon market, with power, steel, cement, and aluminum sectors being better prepared compared to the more complex petrochemical and chemical industries [7][8] - The paper industry, primarily composed of small and medium-sized enterprises, may face significant cost pressures and management challenges [7] Data Quality and Management - Ensuring data quality is critical for the carbon market's success, with the Ministry planning to enhance the monitoring and verification (MRV) system [5][11] - The Ministry will also upgrade infrastructure to support the expanded carbon market, focusing on regulatory capacity and data security [4][11] Future Directions - The carbon market aims to establish a transparent and unified pricing mechanism by 2030, with a focus on effective emission reduction and a robust regulatory framework [10][12] - The transition to a paid allocation system and total quota control is a key focus for the upcoming "15th Five-Year Plan" period [12]

Core Points - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment (MEE) has released a roadmap for expanding the national carbon emissions trading market, aiming to cover major industrial sectors by 2027 [1][2][3] - The carbon market currently includes approximately 3,700 key emission units, covering around 8 billion tons of emissions, which accounts for over 60% of national carbon emissions [1][2][3] - The MEE has initiated preparatory work for including additional sectors such as chemicals, petrochemicals, civil aviation, and papermaking, adhering to a principle of gradual inclusion based on industry maturity [1][4] Industry Coverage - The eight key industries targeted for carbon market inclusion account for about 75% of China's carbon dioxide emissions, including power generation, steel, building materials, non-ferrous metals, petrochemicals, chemicals, papermaking, and aviation [2][3] - By 2025, the MEE plans to finalize the inclusion of steel, cement, and aluminum smelting into the carbon trading market, which will significantly enhance the market's coverage [3][4] Quota Distribution - The quota distribution for 2024 and 2025 will be free and based on carbon emissions per unit of output, following a gradual approach [6][7] - New enterprises that commence operations in 2024 and 2025 will not be included in the quota distribution for those years, ensuring that only established units are considered [6] Market Dynamics - The carbon price is expected to rise significantly by 2027, from approximately 50 yuan per ton to between 130 and 180 yuan per ton, reflecting the transition to a more stringent quota control and paid allocation system [7][9] - The current carbon market has a high participation rate, with over 90% engagement in spot trading, indicating a robust market structure [10] Future Directions - The MEE aims to enhance data quality management and regulatory frameworks to support the expansion of the carbon market, ensuring accurate emissions reporting from newly included sectors [5][9] - The transition to a paid allocation system and total quota control is a key focus for the 14th Five-Year Plan period, with an emphasis on establishing a fair and effective carbon pricing mechanism [11]

Core Points - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment has released the "Quota Allocation Plan for National Carbon Emission Trading Market for Steel, Cement, and Aluminum Smelting Industries for 2024 and 2025," which outlines the allocation, clearing, and transfer of carbon emission quotas for these industries [1] - The plan continues the framework of free quota allocation based on carbon emission intensity control, linking the quota amount to actual carbon output, without setting an absolute cap on total emissions, thus ensuring necessary space for industry development [1] - The plan aims to incentivize carbon reduction by allowing companies with lower carbon emissions per unit product to have higher quota surplus rates [1] Industry Expansion - The Ministry has initiated preparatory work for expanding the carbon trading market to include industries such as chemicals, petrochemicals, civil aviation, and papermaking, with technical documents being drafted for quota allocation and reporting guidelines [2] - The expansion will follow the principle of "mature one, include one," based on industry development status, pollution reduction contributions, data quality, and carbon emission characteristics [2] - By 2027, the carbon trading market is expected to cover major emission industries in the industrial sector, with a gradual shift from intensity control to total control for industries with stable total emissions [2]

Core Viewpoint - The carbon emissions trading market in China is set to expand significantly by 2027, covering major high-emission industries such as chemicals, petrochemicals, civil aviation, and paper manufacturing, with a focus on improving data quality and regulatory capacity [1][2][4]. Group 1: Carbon Emissions Trading Market Expansion - By 2027, the carbon emissions trading market will primarily cover major industrial sectors [2]. - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment has initiated preparations to expand coverage to industries like chemicals, petrochemicals, civil aviation, and paper manufacturing [1][2]. - The carbon emissions reports from relevant industries since 2013 have been collected and verified to address data quality issues [1]. Group 2: Allocation and Management of Emission Quotas - The allocation plan for the steel, cement, and aluminum industries has been published, with a focus on free allocation based on carbon intensity control [4][5]. - The quota distribution will target the highest carbon-emitting enterprises, which account for over 98% of emissions in their respective sectors [5]. - The Ministry will issue pre-allocated quotas for 2025 to the steel, cement, and aluminum industries in the first half of next year [8]. Group 3: Data Quality and Regulatory Measures - The Ministry emphasizes the importance of carbon emissions data quality as foundational for the carbon market, with plans to enhance the monitoring, reporting, and verification (MRV) system [6][9]. - Advanced technologies such as blockchain, big data, and artificial intelligence will be utilized for comprehensive regulatory oversight [9]. - Companies are required to establish robust internal management systems for carbon emissions data to ensure compliance and accuracy [9].

Group 1 - The carbon emissions trading market is expected to cover major high-emission industries such as chemicals, petrochemicals, civil aviation, and paper-making by 2027 [1][2] - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment has initiated preparations for expanding the coverage of the carbon market and is compiling a comprehensive set of technical documents [1][2] - The carbon emissions trading market currently includes steel, cement, and aluminum smelting industries, with the types of greenhouse gases covered being CO2, CF4, and C2F6 [2] Group 2 - The allocation plan for the steel, cement, and aluminum smelting industries has been published, drawing on successful experiences from the power generation sector [4][5] - The allocation of quotas is linked to actual production levels, ensuring that companies with lower carbon emissions per unit of product have higher surplus quotas, thus creating a clear incentive for emissions reduction [4][5] - The focus is on direct emissions from production processes, excluding indirect emissions from purchased electricity and heat [5] Group 3 - The steel industry accounts for 15% of the national total carbon emissions, making it the highest-emitting sector in manufacturing [7] - In the first half of next year, pre-allocated quotas for 2025 will be distributed to steel, cement, and aluminum smelting companies, which must submit their greenhouse gas emission reports [7][8] - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment emphasizes the importance of data quality in the carbon market, planning to enhance the monitoring, reporting, and verification (MRV) system to ensure accurate emissions data [7][8]

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