Market Overview - The three major A-share indices collectively adjusted, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.12% to 3635 points, the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.26%, and the ChiNext Index down 0.38% [1] - The total trading volume for the day was 1.74 trillion yuan, a decrease of 116.2 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day, with over 2800 stocks declining across the market [1] Sector Performance - The Xinjiang sector experienced a surge, with stocks like Xiyu Tourism, Tianshan Shares, and Western Construction hitting the daily limit [1] - The cement and building materials sector, as well as hydropower concepts, saw gains, with companies like Shanhai Intelligent and Guodian Nanzi also reaching the daily limit [1] - The wind power equipment sector rose, with Feiwo Technology hitting a 20% limit up [1] - Engineering machinery, railway infrastructure, and liquid cooling concepts showed strong performance [1] Declining Sectors - The ERP concept faced a downturn, with Dingjie Zhizhi dropping nearly 16% [1] - The Kimi concept also fell, with Jin Xiandai down nearly 13% [1] - The software development sector weakened, led by Wanxing Technology [1] - Other sectors with significant declines included information innovation, semiconductors, and PEEK materials [1] Capital Inflow - The net capital inflow showed positive trends in sectors such as engineering machinery, gas, and motorcycles, with respective 5-day increases of 3.16%, 1.709%, and 2.72% [2] - Other sectors like construction, energy equipment, and power generation equipment also reported gains of 1.42%, 1.45%, and 1.319% respectively [2]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [12] Core Insights - The political bureau meeting emphasized the need to combat "involution" and promote continuous policy advancement, focusing on optimizing market competition and regulating chaotic enterprise competition [5][21] - North American cloud service capital expenditure is accelerating, leading to sustained high demand for specialty electronic fabrics [6] - Cement prices are experiencing a narrowing decline, while glass inventory continues to decrease [7] - Recommendations include focusing on specialty fiberglass and the African supply chain, with leading companies being the main investment theme for the year [9] Summary by Sections Political and Economic Context - The political bureau meeting on July 30 highlighted the importance of advancing the construction of a unified national market and optimizing market competition [5] - The report analyzes the profitability of various industries, indicating that photovoltaic glass and carbon fiber are at the bottom, while cement and fiberglass are slightly profitable [5] North American Cloud Services - Recent quarterly reports from Microsoft and Meta show that AI is driving revenue and performance growth, with capital expenditures continuing to accelerate [6] - The electronic fabric industry is on a clear upward trend, with domestic leaders rapidly achieving domestic substitution [6] Cement and Glass Market - The domestic cement market is affected by adverse weather conditions, with an average shipment rate of 44.5%, down 2.2 percentage points year-on-year [7] - The average national cement price is 344.84 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.97 yuan/ton month-on-month and 42.74 yuan/ton year-on-year [26] - The glass market is beginning to digest social inventory, with production and sales rates indicating a need for policy changes to influence market dynamics [8][38] Recommendations - Specialty fabrics: Core leader Zhongcai Technology is recommended due to high demand from AI and significant supply barriers [9] - African supply chain: Keda Manufacturing is recommended as a local leader with advantages in production, channels, and brand [9] - The report suggests that the 2025 consumption of building materials is expected to see upward demand and structural optimization [9]

Group 1 - The Shanghai Urban Infrastructure Index (H50034) experienced a slight decline of 0.01%, closing at 1237.17 points with a trading volume of 16.678 billion yuan [1] - Over the past month, the Shanghai Urban Infrastructure Index has increased by 6.04%, and by 6.76% over the last three months, while it has decreased by 1.59% year-to-date [1] - The index reflects the performance of listed companies influenced by changes in economic and consumption structures, focusing on themes such as intensive, intelligent, and green low-carbon development [1] Group 2 - The top ten weighted stocks in the Shanghai Urban Infrastructure Index include China State Construction (9.44%), China Railway (6.99%), and Poly Development (6.9%) among others [1] - The index is composed entirely of stocks listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange, with the industrial sector accounting for 57.78%, real estate for 31.31%, and materials for 10.91% [2] - The index samples are adjusted biannually, with changes implemented on the next trading day following the second Friday of June and December [2]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook on Sichuan Road and Bridge as a leading player in Southwest infrastructure, highlighting its current combination of regional infrastructure growth and dividend yield [3][15]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of local manufacturing in Africa, particularly for companies like Keda Manufacturing, which is positioned as a leader in localized production and sales [4][16]. - The report notes a price increase in RTF copper foil, indicating a high demand for HVLP products, and suggests continued investment in copper foil and electronic cloth sectors [5][17]. - The report tracks the performance of various materials, indicating a downward trend in cement prices and a mixed outlook for glass and fiberglass markets [6][18][22]. Summary by Sections Weekly Discussion - Sichuan Road and Bridge is highlighted for its strong position in Southwest infrastructure, with a reported investment of 134.9 billion yuan in transportation construction, ranking second nationally and showing a 3.5% increase year-on-year [3][15]. Cyclical Linkage - Cement prices averaged 340 yuan per ton, down 43 yuan year-on-year, with an average shipment rate of 44.7% [6][18]. - Glass prices increased to 1295.28 yuan per ton, reflecting a 4.58% rise, while concrete mixing stations reported a capacity utilization rate of 7.12% [6][18]. - The report warns of potential price declines in steel due to market fundamentals [6][18]. National Subsidy Tracking - The report mentions the allocation of 690 billion yuan for consumer goods replacement subsidies, with plans for further funding in October [7][19]. Important Changes - Notable acquisitions include Defu Technology's purchase of Circuit Foil Luxembourg for 174 million euros and the listing of Hanhai Group on the A-share market [8][20][21]. Market Performance - The construction materials index fell by 3.96% over the week, with specific declines in glass manufacturing and fiberglass sectors [24]. Material Price Changes - Cement prices continued to decline, with a national average of 340 yuan per ton, while glass prices showed a slight increase [32][41]. - Fiberglass prices remained under pressure, with a reported average of 3595.25 yuan per ton [66].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the strong performance of innovative drugs and CXO concepts, with only one stock achieving three consecutive limit-ups, while the overall market shows a significant number of declines [1] - A total of 43 stocks hit the daily limit, with 9 stocks showing consecutive limit-ups, and a limit-up advancement rate of 20% excluding ST and delisted stocks [1] - The article notes that apart from Xizang Tourism, which achieved a limit-up, all other consecutive limit-up stocks experienced a breakdown, indicating a severe gap in consecutive limit-up stocks [1] Group 2 - The article provides specific data on stocks with consecutive limit-ups, including Xizang Tourism with a 100% advancement rate, and other stocks like Shanhua Intelligent and Nanfang Road Machinery showing lower advancement rates [2] - It mentions that the super hydropower concept continues to show strong speculative behavior, with stocks like Tuoshan Heavy Industry experiencing significant volatility [1] - The innovative drug sector is highlighted with companies like Yatai Pharmaceutical and Chenxin Pharmaceutical showing strong consecutive limit-up performances, alongside news of WuXi AppTec's better-than-expected half-year results and an upward revision of its annual revenue guidance [1]

Market Performance - The A-share market indices showed steady growth from July 21 to 25, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.67% to close at 3593.66 points, the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 2.33%, and the ChiNext Index up by 2.76% [1] - All major industry sectors achieved positive returns, except for the banking sector, which experienced a slight decline. The steel, coal, and building materials sectors led the gains [1] Institutional Research Highlights - A total of 121 listed companies disclosed institutional research minutes during the week, with over 70% of the researched stocks achieving positive returns. Dayu Water-saving led with a 36.24% increase, followed by Tangyuan Electric, Maolai Optics, Zhejiang Fu Holdings, and Haopeng Technology, all of which saw gains exceeding 18% [1] - The concentration of institutional research decreased, with companies like Guodian Measurement, Dayu Water-saving, Haopeng Technology, and Tangyuan Electric receiving over 50 institutional visits [2] Guodian Measurement - Guodian Measurement received 54 institutional visits, the highest for the week. The company announced plans to raise 1.3 billion yuan through a private placement for investments in satellite internet, aviation equipment, AI chips, and data intelligence [2] - The management emphasized that the fundraising is a strategic move to enhance technological self-reliance and innovation, addressing critical technology bottlenecks. The projects will be implemented in phases over three years, with a focus on structural adjustments and profit growth [2] Haopeng Technology - Haopeng Technology was visited by 52 institutions and is transitioning from a consumer battery manufacturer to an "AI + solid-state" energy solutions provider, targeting trillion-level markets such as AI, robotics, and low-altitude economy [3] - The company aims to enhance the proportion of high-margin AI products and increase the penetration of solid-state batteries. It has made significant progress in AI glasses and robotics, with mass production expected in the second half of the year [3] - By 2025, Haopeng Technology anticipates that AI-related products will contribute to revenue growth, driven by high energy density battery solutions [3] Flying Dragon Co., Ltd. - Flying Dragon Co., Ltd. received attention from institutions regarding its declining revenue and profit increase projections for the first half of 2025. The management cited three main reasons for the revenue decline: project lifecycle expiration, reduced overseas orders due to tariffs, and intensified price competition in the new energy vehicle sector [4] - The company expects revenue recovery in the second half of 2025, driven by new overseas projects, increased orders for new energy vehicle modules, and growth in liquid cooling product sales [4]

Group 1 - The company, Jiangxi Wannianqing Cement Co., Ltd., issued 10 million convertible bonds with a total value of 1 billion yuan, which were listed on July 2, 2020 [1] - Recently, the company received a notification that Xinhua Life Insurance Co., Ltd. transferred 1,027,330 bonds, accounting for 10.27% of the total issuance [1] - The bonds have a maturity period of 6 years, and the issuance was approved by the China Securities Regulatory Commission [1]

Group 1 - A total of 45 stocks hit the daily limit up, with 9 stocks achieving consecutive limit ups [1] - 26 stocks failed to maintain their limit up status, resulting in a limit up rate of 63% (excluding ST and delisted stocks) [1] - Super water power concept stocks showed significant divergence, with Huitong Group achieving 7 limit ups in 11 days [1] Group 2 - Tibet Tianlu and Xining Special Steel reached 5 consecutive limit ups [1] - However, companies such as Zhongshe Shares, Zhonghua Rock and Soil, Huaxin Cement, and Subote experienced limit downs [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market's focus is shifting towards medium - quality entities within industries such as steel, coal, real estate, local state - owned construction enterprises, and non - bank finance. In Q3, it is advisable to explore large - scale medium - quality entities in each industry. For institutions with high risk tolerance, there are opportunities to compress the liquidity premium of some high - quality private enterprises. For industries with low overall risks like public utilities, regular allocation is sufficient [5]. - For ultra - long credit bonds, it is time to gradually take profits, shorten the duration for defense, and switch to more liquid varieties, waiting for the next opportunity to attack [6]. - In Q3, different industries present various investment opportunities and risks. For example, the construction industry may see marginal improvement in prosperity but still face pressure; the steel industry has strong expectations of marginal improvement in fundamentals; the coal industry needs to select high - quality entities for exploration; the real estate industry has high - valued state - owned enterprises with certain investment potential; the non - ferrous metal industry has a differentiated prosperity; and the cement industry has limited opportunities [7]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Q3 Ultra - long Credit Bond Strategy: Gradually Take Profits and Wait for Subsequent Attack Opportunities 3.1.1 Primary Issuance - In Q2, the supply of ultra - long credit bonds increased month - on - month, with large industrial central state - owned enterprises remaining the main financing force. The total issuance in H1 was 539.8 billion yuan, and Q2 increased by 63% month - on - month, accounting for 9.27% of all credit bonds, but still lower than Q3 last year. The issuers were mainly industrial, accounting for about 72%, and large central state - owned enterprises such as State Grid had large issuance volumes [16]. - Since early July, the bond market has adjusted, and the supply of ultra - long credit bonds may be frustrated in the short term, and its subsequent recovery remains to be observed [18]. 3.1.2 Yield Analysis - To obtain significant excess returns from extending the credit duration, either interest rate decline or spread compression must occur, and the amplitude should be large enough [31]. - The trigger for the sharp decline of ultra - long credit bonds in recent years is mostly the reversal of institutional behavior. Currently, although it is predicted that there will be a double - bull market for stocks and bonds in the second half of the year, the short - term risk cannot be ignored due to the impact of the "stock - bond seesaw" on market sentiment [34]. - In terms of capital gains, the odds of ultra - long credit bonds are decreasing; the one - two - level arbitrage space is difficult to find; and the coupon protection ability is weak, making it difficult to increase the winning rate. Therefore, it is recommended to gradually take profits and switch to more liquid varieties such as 5Y bank secondary perpetual bonds [37]. 3.1.3 Strategy - For most institutions, it is time to gradually take profits from ultra - long credit bonds. The reasons include the difficulty in continuing the excess returns in the future, the fragility of the market's optimistic sentiment, the lack of obvious coupon advantages and protection ability, and the relatively small advantage compared with 5Y bank secondary perpetual bonds [46][51]. 3.2 Q3 Industrial Bond Strategy: Explore Industry Allocation Opportunities under "Anti - involution" 3.2.1 Construction - In 2025, the construction industry has been under pressure since the beginning of the year, and the downward trend in prosperity continued into Q2. In Q3, although factors such as accelerated capital arrival, the "anti - involution" initiative, and overseas growth are expected to bring marginal improvement in prosperity, the industry will still be under pressure overall, and industry concentration may further increase, benefiting leading central state - owned enterprises [48][52]. - In terms of bond valuation, the industry's valuation declined steadily in the second quarter. The spread of central state - owned enterprises narrowed, and some local state - owned enterprises had a large decline in valuation, but the valuation of some enterprises was still unstable [55]. - The strategy is to mainly explore subsidiaries of central state - owned enterprises and selectively allocate local state - owned enterprises. For institutions with low risk tolerance, continue to explore high - valued subsidiaries of central state - owned enterprises or leading local state - owned enterprises; for institutions that can accept a certain degree of credit quality downgrade, local state - owned enterprises provide greater return space, but it is not recommended to over - explore them [56]. 3.2.2 Steel - In Q2, steel prices fluctuated downward, but rose rapidly in early July under the support of cost and the expectation of "anti - involution" policies [60]. - In terms of fundamentals, supply is cautiously released, demand recovery in Q2 was less than expected, and total inventory is expected to further decline. In the short term, steel prices and steel enterprise profits are expected to be strong, but there is a risk of a callback [61][65][67]. - Medium - quality entities have strong motivation to compress spreads, and it is expected that the spreads of medium - grade mainstream entities such as HBIS and Shandong Steel will continue to compress. They can be appropriately allocated [71]. 3.2.3 Coal - In the second quarter, the price of thermal coal fluctuated downward and then rebounded at the end of the quarter, while the price of coking coal rose briefly in April and then fell, also rebounding at the end of June [74]. - In terms of fundamentals, the supply structure is relatively loose, and production inspections may lead to subsequent tightening. The demand for thermal coal is seasonally improving, while the probability of "oversupply" of coking coal is relatively large. Port inventories are continuously being depleted [76][80]. - It is expected that the coal price rebound may continue, with thermal coal being stronger than coking coal. In Q3, exploration still needs to select high - quality entities, and Jinmei Group is still the target of exploration by mainstream institutions [7][80]. 3.2.4 Real Estate - In Q3, the downward pressure on the real estate industry may continue to increase. The real estate sector is currently the highest - valued sector among state - owned enterprises, with a certain thickness of coupon and potential for exploration. Although the market is concerned about the emotional fluctuations brought about by Vanke's support willingness, the fluctuations are relatively controllable under the attraction of absolute returns, and it has cost - effectiveness [7]. 3.2.5 Non - ferrous Metals - In the non - ferrous metals industry, for gold, the market is mainly speculating on the Fed's interest rate cut expectation, and the long - term upward trend of the central price remains unchanged; for copper, the mining end is generally tight but with marginal increments, and the demand side is weak; for aluminum, the inventory has been depleted more than expected, and the demand - side risk is small, and the profit space of electrolytic aluminum plants is expected to continue [7]. - In terms of strategy, the valuations of high - quality but over - valued entities such as Nanshan Group, Hongqiao New Materials, and Luoyang Aluminum Industry are expected to continue to decline, while there are few opportunities for other entities [7]. 3.2.6 Cement - In Q2, cement prices almost declined unilaterally, and manufacturers faced the risk of losses. Attention should be paid to the implementation of over - production governance under "anti - involution." Currently, except for Hongshi, the spreads of the cement sector are basically compressed within 30bp, and it is difficult to obtain excess returns, so the overall opportunities in the cement sector are limited [7]. 3.2.7 Strategy - In Q3, explore large - scale medium - quality entities in each industry. The current spread of entities with a spread of 40 - 50bp is about 20bp different from that of leading entities, and it is expected that the spread will be compressed in Q3 [5]. 3.3 Q2 Industrial Bond Market Review: Convergent Trends and Deviation from Fundamentals 3.3.1 Issuance and Financing Situation - In Q2, industrial bonds had a large net inflow of 732.1 billion yuan, and public utilities led in net financing [14]. 3.3.2 Yield and Spread Trends - After the yield was repaired in Q2, it fluctuated at a low level. The trading logic was that the loose capital tone ran through the entire quarter, and the performance of different industries in the industrial bond market was not significantly differentiated, and the spread trend deviated from fundamentals [9]. 3.3.3 Liquidity - Since Q2, the liquidity of credit bonds has been continuously improving, and the trading heat of ultra - long credit bonds reached its peak in mid - June [14]. 3.3.4 Credit Risk - In Q2, there were 2 entities with substantial bond defaults and 4 domestic entities with rating/ outlook downgrades, but the overall credit risk was controllable [9].

Group 1: Q3 Super Long Credit Bond Strategy - The report suggests gradually taking profits on super long credit bonds and switching to shorter-term, more liquid varieties while waiting for the next investment opportunity [6][10][26] - In Q2, the issuance of super long credit bonds increased significantly, with a total of 539.8 billion yuan, marking a 63% increase from the previous quarter [10][12] - The report indicates that the current market conditions do not support further exploration of super long credit bonds due to declining odds of capital gains and limited arbitrage opportunities [26][27] Group 2: Q3 Industry Bond Strategy - The strategy focuses on identifying investment opportunities under the "anti-involution" initiative across various industries [6][10] - In the construction sector, while there is a marginal improvement expected due to funding acceleration and the "anti-involution" initiative, the overall industry remains under pressure [6][10] - The steel industry shows strong expectations for marginal improvement, with opportunities for continued compression of spreads among mid-tier players like Hebei Steel and Shandong Steel [6][10] - The coal sector anticipates a rebound in prices, with a focus on major players like Jin Energy, while cash flow improvements may exceed expectations [6][10] - The real estate sector faces increasing downward pressure, but state-owned enterprises still present attractive absolute returns [6][10] - In the non-ferrous metals sector, the report highlights a divergence in market conditions, with opportunities for compression in spreads among quality private enterprises [6][10] - The cement industry is under significant pressure, with risks of losses and limited opportunities for excess returns [6][10] - The overall strategy recommends focusing on medium-quality entities across industries, particularly in steel, coal, real estate, and construction, while keeping an eye on the "anti-involution" initiative and the commencement of the Yajiang Hydropower Station [6][10]