新兴与未来产业融资方兴未艾，直接融资体系亟待增进，这些 因素构成了突破存准率下限的现实条件和政策窗口期，对于取 消存款准备金率5%下限而言，当前时点或许比以往任何时候 都更加接近了。 作者： 张林 封图：图虫创意 同时，央行已常态化运用国债买卖、MLF投放、买断式回购等工具补位中长期流动性。对于金融 机构来说，通过降准获取长期流动性的成本最低，但也可能加大货币乘数与同业杠杆的波动。 此外，打破下限容易被市场解读为货币政策超常规宽松，可能带来金融市场预期不稳，比如资产价 格波动放大、人民币汇率管理压力加大，这些副作用的代价可能是无法忽略的。比如起到无风险利 率锚定作用的国债价格，就对降准操作较为敏感，2024债券市场收益率的快速单边下行受到了两 轮降准降息的影响，甚至首次出现30年期、20年期、10年期国债收益率先后低于日本国债收益率 的现象。 关于存款准备金率的下限值，从未被白纸黑字写进任何一份正式官方文件，但每逢降准落地，央行 公告皆会标注"不含已执行5%存款准备金率的机构"，5%的下限由此成为默认的共识。不过，近 日市场消息认为这一隐形下限或有所松动，并引发了新一轮讨论。 下限是否取消，这是一个十分重要的 ...

Core Viewpoint - Policymakers have maintained the interest rate at 4% for the third consecutive meeting, indicating that inflation may necessitate a change in the near future [1] Group 1 - The current interest rate has been held steady at 4% [1] - This decision marks the third straight meeting without a change in the rate [1] - Policymakers suggest that inflationary pressures could lead to adjustments in the interest rate soon [1]

Core Viewpoint - GAC Group announced the completion of the issuance of the fourth phase of green technology innovation bonds for the year 2026, with a total issuance scale of 3 billion yuan [1] Group 1: Bond Issuance Details - The bond issuance was completed on March 25, 2026, with all raised funds received on the same day [1] - The bonds have a term of 3 years, with an issuance interest rate of 1.77% [1] - The interest start date is March 25, 2026, and the maturity date is March 25, 2029 [1] Group 2: Underwriters - The lead underwriter for the bond issuance is China Construction Bank [1] - Co-lead underwriters include CITIC Bank and China Minsheng Bank [1]

Core Viewpoint - Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas has decided to maintain its policy rate during an off-cycle meeting, indicating a cautious approach to monetary policy amid current economic conditions [1] Group 1 - The decision to keep the policy rate unchanged reflects the central bank's assessment of the economic landscape and inflationary pressures [1] - This move suggests that the central bank is prioritizing stability in the financial system over immediate rate adjustments [1] - The off-cycle meeting highlights the central bank's responsiveness to evolving economic indicators [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The situation of the US - Iran negotiation is unclear. Iran has clearly rejected the US cease - fire proposal, while the White House claims the negotiation is ongoing and productive. The US is trying to arrange a meeting in Pakistan to discuss the "exit plan" from the war with Iran. Iran has put forward 5 conditions for a cease - fire [2][3][12]. - Due to the continuous Middle - East conflict, soaring oil prices, and a structurally weak labor market, Wall Street institutions have significantly raised the probability of a US economic recession. Moody's analysis model shows the probability of the US falling into a recession in the next 12 months has risen to 48.6%, and Goldman Sachs has raised its forecast to 30% [4]. - The Fed should gradually cut interest rates to a neutral level this year, and the overall inflation forecast for this year has been raised to 2.7% due to the impact of oil prices [4]. - There are opportunities for the large - scale development of green fuels, but they also face challenges from the fossil energy industry and the rise of new - energy vehicles [8]. 3. Summary by Catalog 3.1 Macro Data Overview - GDP growth in Q4 2025 was 4.5% year - on - year, lower than the previous quarter's 4.8% and last year's 5.4% [1]. - In February 2026, the manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, the non - manufacturing PMI for business activities was 49.5%, both lower than the same period last year [1]. - The monthly value of social financing in February 2026 was 2385.5 billion yuan, slightly lower than the previous month [1]. - In February 2026, M0, M1, and M2 increased year - on - year, with M0 at 14.1%, M1 at 5.9%, and M2 at 9.0% [1]. - The new RMB loans of financial institutions in February 2026 were 900 billion yuan, up from the previous month but lower than the same period last year [1]. - In February 2026, CPI increased by 1.3% year - on - year, and PPI decreased by 0.9% year - on - year [1]. - In February 2026, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment was 1.8%, and that of total retail sales of consumer goods was 2.8% [1]. - In February 2026, exports increased by 39.6% year - on - year, and imports increased by 13.8% year - on - year [1]. 3.2 Commodity Investment Reference 3.2.1 Comprehensive - The US - Iran negotiation situation is complex. Iran has rejected the US cease - fire proposal, and the US is trying to arrange a meeting to discuss the exit plan. Iran has put forward 5 cease - fire conditions [2][3][12]. - Non - belligerent country ships can pass through the Strait of Hormuz safely after coordination. Cosco Shipping Lines has resumed new booking business but will not pass through the Strait of Hormuz directly [3][13]. - Wall Street institutions have raised the probability of a US economic recession, and the Fed should cut interest rates [4]. 3.2.2 Metals - On March 25, silver inventory increased to 376094 kg, but tin and copper inventories decreased [5]. - More central banks are expected to buy gold in 2026, such as those in Guatemala, Indonesia, and Malaysia [6]. 3.2.3 Energy and Chemicals - Japan started releasing its national oil reserve on March 26, with an expected total release of about 8.5 million kiloliters [7]. - The US is evaluating the extreme scenario of oil prices reaching $200 per barrel [7]. - There are opportunities for the large - scale development of green fuels due to high oil prices, but they also face challenges [8]. - The US has proposed a 15 - item peace - negotiation plan to Iran [8]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products - As of mid - March, most agricultural product prices increased, with the price of soybean meal rising by 6.82% month - on - month and that of glyphosate rising by 8.84% month - on - month [9]. - The price of peanuts remained flat in mid - March [9]. 3.3 Financial News Compilation 3.3.1 Open Market - On March 25, the central bank conducted 785 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 580 billion yuan. It also carried out 5000 billion yuan of MLF operations while 4500 billion yuan of 1 - year MLF matured [10][11]. - The central bank issued 600 billion yuan of central bank bills on March 25 [11]. 3.3.2 Key News - The US - Iran negotiation situation is unclear, and Iran has put forward cease - fire conditions [12]. - Non - belligerent country ships can pass through the Strait of Hormuz safely [13]. - The US threatens Iran to cooperate [14]. - China and the Netherlands will strengthen cooperation [14]. - The "takeaway war" should end [14]. - Mexico's relevant measures against China are recognized as trade and investment barriers [14]. - The second - hand housing market in Shenzhen has become hot [15]. - As of the end of February, the total scale of China's public funds reached 38.61 trillion yuan [15][27]. - There have been more cases of bank wealth management product issuance failures this year [15]. - There are some bond - related events, such as the early redemption of some bonds and credit rating changes [16]. 3.3.3 Bond Market Summary - The inter - bank bond market was mainly in a narrow range, and the yield of main interest - rate bonds fluctuated slightly. Treasury bond futures had a mixed performance [17]. - The exchange - traded bond market had some adjustments, with some bonds rising and falling [17]. - The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose by 1.03%, and the Wind Convertible Bond Equal - Weighted Index rose by 1.16% [18]. - Shibor short - term varieties mostly rose [18]. - Bank - to - bank repurchase fixed - term rates mostly changed [19]. - The winning bid yields of some financial bonds were announced [19]. - European and US bond yields mostly fell [19][20]. 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 6.8977, down 100 basis points. The RMB central parity rate against the US dollar was raised by 32 basis points [21]. - The US dollar index rose by 0.41%, and non - US currencies generally fell [21]. 3.3.5 Research Report Highlights - Shenzhen's public REITs have rich underlying assets, and the valuation of the underlying assets of listed public REITs in Shenzhen exceeds 14 billion yuan [22]. - Since the beginning of 2026, the public FOF market has been booming, and its scale has nearly doubled in one year. The market is expected to show a structural differentiation pattern [23]. - Under the new regulations on public fund redemption fees, bond ETFs have advantages for institutional investors, and attention can be paid to short - term high - grade component bonds [23]. - In January - February 2026, fiscal revenue growth was slow, but expenditure was strong [24]. - China's real - estate financial attribute has dominated in the past 20 years. The total value of Chinese residents' real estate is about 395.6 trillion yuan, and future residents' wealth will shift from real - estate - driven to multi - asset - driven [24]. 3.3.6 Today's Reminders - On March 26, 263 bonds will be listed, 178 bonds will be issued, 173 bonds will be paid, and 323 bonds will pay principal and interest [25][26]. 3.4 Stock Market Key News - The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.3%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.95%, the ChiNext Index rose 2.01%, and the market turnover was 2.19 trillion yuan [27]. - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rose 1.09%, the Hang Seng Technology Index rose 1.91%, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index rose 0.98%. Southbound funds had a net purchase of 22.3 billion Hong Kong dollars [27]. - As of the end of February, the total scale of China's public funds reached 38.61 trillion yuan [15][27].

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) is prepared to increase interest rates in response to a potential rise in euro zone inflation, even if this increase is expected to be temporary [1][2]. Group 1: Inflation Forecasts - ECB President Christine Lagarde indicated that a "not-too-persistent" rise in inflation could lead to a policy adjustment, as the bank has revised its inflation expectations to forecast a rise above the 2% target [2]. - Prior to the Iran conflict, the euro zone's inflation rate had fallen below the ECB's 2% target, but it increased to 1.9% in February [3]. Group 2: Impact of Global Events - The ongoing conflict in Iran and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz have significantly increased global oil and gas prices, disrupting inflation forecasts in Europe [4]. - Lagarde emphasized the importance of addressing any overshoot in inflation to avoid communication risks, as the public may struggle to understand a lack of response from the ECB [3].

证券研究报告/宏观利率研究 2026 年 03 月 25 日 基本面弱复苏叠加输入性通胀 利率曲线陡峭化 宏观利率周报（20260309-20260320） 研报摘要 ⚫ 核心观点：基本面方面，1-2 月经济数据回暖支撑长端利率坚挺。政策方面，据上 海证券报的报道，部分成员银行参加市场利率定价自律机制会议，被要求加强自律管 理，高于 7 天逆回购 OMO 政策利率（1.4%）的同业活期存款规模季度末占比不超过 10%-20%，或涉及超 10 万亿同业存款市场。市场流动性的平稳以及同业存款利率的压 降等因素，共同促进短端利率的下行。海外方面，中东冲突升级，霍尔木兹海峡航道受 阻，全球石油供给减少，油价中枢难有明显回落，强化"滞胀"预期。国债期货，尤其 超长端 TL 合约正基差扩大，显示市场对未来利率上行的预期溢价。总的来看，最近两 周中东冲突升级强化"滞胀"预期，虽然国内市场流动性维持平稳宽松态势，但资本市 场已部分定价油价冲击的或有影响，股、债、商均形成压力，"股债跷跷板"失效，并 将在地缘冲突缓和前持续。对比俄乌冲突时期，2021 年末离岸美元债风险刚开始向国 内传导，而近期地产风险已大幅释放，房价环比降幅 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints On March 24, the capital market was stable and loose, the bond market showed a slight recovery, the main indices of the convertible bond market rose collectively, most convertible bond individual securities increased, the yields of US Treasury bonds across various maturities generally rose, and the yields of 10 - year government bonds in major European economies generally increased [1][2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Bond Market News - **Domestic News**: The central bank will conduct a 500 - billion - yuan 1 - year MLF operation on March 25, resulting in a net injection of 50 billion yuan after considering the maturity amount. In addition, a 1.3 - trillion - yuan outright reverse repurchase was carried out, with a net withdrawal of 300 billion yuan after offsetting the maturity. In total, the medium - term liquidity in March had a net withdrawal of 250 billion yuan. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology plans to promote the introduction of policies for data elements to empower new - type industrialization, and the National Data Bureau will take a series of measures to promote the high - quality development of the digital economy [4][5]. - **International News**: The US March composite PMI unexpectedly dropped to 51.4, with the manufacturing expansion accelerating and the service industry growth slowing. The data signals "slowing growth and rising inflation", and the US may face the risk of "stagflation" [7]. - **Commodities**: On March 24, WTI May crude oil futures rose 4.79% to $92.35 per barrel, Brent May crude oil futures rose 4.55% to $104.49 per barrel, COMEX gold spot price rose 1.15% to $4459.60 per ounce, and NYMEX May natural gas futures price fell 0.48% to $2.898 per million British thermal units [8]. 3.2 Capital Market - **Open Market Operations**: On March 24, the central bank conducted a 17.5 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation at a fixed interest rate, with a net withdrawal of 3.35 billion yuan due to the maturity of 51 billion yuan of reverse repurchases [10]. - **Capital Interest Rates**: On March 24, the capital market remained stable and loose. DR001 rose 0.25bp to 1.323%, and DR007 fell 1.43bp to 1.412%. Other interest rates also showed corresponding changes [11][12]. 3.3 Bond Market Dynamics - **Interest - rate Bonds** - **Spot Bond Yield Trends**: On March 24, with the release of news about the easing of the US - Iran conflict overseas, the bond market fluctuated and recovered. As of 20:00, the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond active bond 250022 fell 0.80bp to 1.8310%, and the yield of the 10 - year China Development Bank bond active bond 250220 fell 0.30bp to 1.9730% [14]. - **Bond Tendering Situation**: Various bonds such as 26Guokai02 (Increment 3), 26Guokai03 (Increment 4), etc., were tendered, with different issuance scales, winning yields, full - field multiples, and marginal multiples [16]. - **Credit Bonds** - **Secondary - market Transaction Abnormalities**: On March 24, the transaction prices of 3 industrial bonds deviated by more than 10%. "H2 Vanke 04" fell 20%, "H2 Vanke 02" rose more than 14%, and "H1 Vanke 06" rose 17% [17]. - **Credit Bond Events**: Companies such as Zhongnan Construction, Rongsheng Development, and China Aoyuan announced relevant events such as bond principal repayment extensions, guarantee provisions, and overseas debt restructuring progress [18]. - **Convertible Bonds** - **Equity and Convertible Bond Indices**: On March 24, the A - share market rebounded strongly, with more than 5100 stocks rising. The Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index rose 1.78%, 1.43%, and 0.50% respectively. The main indices of the convertible bond market also rose collectively, with the CSI Convertible Bond Index, Shanghai Convertible Bond Index, and Shenzhen Convertible Bond Index rising 2.19%, 2.14%, and 2.24% respectively. Most convertible bond individual securities rose [19]. - **Convertible Bond Tracking**: On March 26, Xianghe Convertible Bond will be listed. Some companies' ratings were terminated, and Jinhong Convertible Bond announced that it was about to trigger the early redemption clause [20][21][22]. - **Overseas Bond Markets** - **US Bond Market**: On March 24, the yields of US Treasury bonds across various maturities generally rose. The 2 - year US Treasury bond yield rose 7bp to 3.90%, and the 10 - year US Treasury bond yield rose 5bp to 4.39%. The yield spreads between 2 - year and 10 - year, and 5 - year and 30 - year US Treasury bonds narrowed [23][24]. - **European Bond Market**: On March 24, the 10 - year German government bond yield fell 1bp to 3.01%, while the 10 - year government bond yields of other major European economies generally rose [26]. - **Daily Price Changes of Chinese - funded US - dollar Bonds**: As of the close on March 24, the prices of Chinese - funded US - dollar bonds showed different changes, with some rising and some falling [28].

Core Insights - The 2026 New Quality Productivity and Cross-Border Finance Forum was held in Luxembourg, focusing on high-quality development of the Chinese economy, cultivation of new quality productivity, internationalization of the Renminbi, and China-Europe cross-border financial cooperation [1][3][10] - The importance of China-Europe economic and trade relations is increasing as the global economy transitions to a new stage characterized by innovation and productivity rather than scale and cost [3][10] Investment Outlook - Nearly 80% of surveyed Chinese enterprises in Europe plan to expand their investments in the EU over the next three years, with about 15% indicating significant capital increases; no companies reported plans to reduce their investments [7][14] - This data reflects a strong willingness among Chinese companies to deepen their engagement in Europe, with a shift in development logic extending beyond industrial levels to institutional, public opinion, and governance systems [14] Localization Strategy - Chinese enterprises' localization in Europe has evolved from a simple market expansion model ("1.0 version") to a more integrated approach involving technology, industry, and society ("2.0 version") [14][15] - The upgrade in localization requires a shift from merely participating in market competition to engaging in public communication and trust-building, although current capabilities are insufficient, relying too heavily on external consulting [14][15] Governance and Communication - Governance capability is becoming a critical challenge, necessitating the Europeanization of governance structures to enhance understanding of rules, communication efficiency, and trust foundations [15] - The relationship between China and Europe is entering a multi-dimensional competitive phase, testing companies' ability to integrate into institutional frameworks while balancing security and openness in Europe [15] Forum Contributions - The forum, co-hosted by the EU-China Chamber of Commerce and Bank of China (Europe), aimed to create a high-level dialogue platform for stakeholders from China and Europe [15] - Participants emphasized the need for open cooperation and enhanced financial connectivity to jointly promote the development of new quality productivity for mutual benefit [15]

Group 1 - The Shanghai Stock Index ETF (510210) opened at 0.977 yuan, with a gain of 0.21% on March 25 [1][2] - Major holdings of the ETF include Agricultural Bank (0.00%), China Petroleum (-3.09%), Kweichow Moutai (0.20%), Industrial Fulian (1.13%), Bank of China (-0.18%), Zijin Mining (4.04%), China Shenhua (-2.06%), China Life (0.28%), China Merchants Bank (0.20%), and Ping An Insurance (0.65%) [1][2] - The ETF's performance benchmark is the Shanghai Composite Index, managed by Fortune Fund Management Co., with fund managers Fang Min and Wang Baohe [2] Group 2 - Since its establishment on January 30, 2011, the ETF has achieved a return of 106.07%, while the return over the past month is -5.74% [2] - A MACD golden cross signal has formed, indicating a positive trend for certain stocks [3]