GUIDE 摘要 财信证券：预计A股市场以震荡偏强运行为主； 华泰证券：短期波动或加剧； 申万宏源：积极因素仍在继续累积。 财信证券 预计A股市场以震荡偏强运行为主 积极因素仍在继续累积 申万宏源表示，上证指数突破后，A股积极因素仍在继续累积。A股大波段上行的线索正愈发完整清 晰，市场开始提前反映远期改善的投资机会。短期市场已演绎出"牛市氛围"：上证指数突破本身直接推 升风险偏好，短期赚钱效应全面扩散。市场开始反映更长期的逻辑+高beta资产上涨。2 025年四季度开 始，牛市的必要条件会加速积累，但2025年三季度牛市可能不会一蹴而就，赚钱效应扩散至高位后，市 场反复可能增加。 配置方面，保险增配银行的资金逻辑，从"一阶导"演绎到"二阶导"，而加速买入无 法中期维持，建议待市场关注度降低再配置。2025年三季度算力链进一步机会，可能来自互联网平台资 本开支改善。反内卷行情短期弹性更大的是周期品。而2026年供需格局改善，中游制造才是重点。 免责声明 以上观点来自相关机构，不代表天天基金的观点，不对观点的准确性和完整性做任何保证。 收益率数据仅供参考，过往业绩和走势风格不预示未来表现，不构成投资建议。转引的相 ...

Group 1: Company Analysis - 长光华芯 - The company has shown rapid revenue growth, with Q1 2025 revenue reaching 94.28 million, and a significant reduction in net loss to 7.5 million [3][4] - The updated profit forecast for 2025-2027 indicates net profits of 28 million, 99 million, and 208 million respectively, with a target price set at 70.86 yuan based on a PE of 60.05x for 2027 [3][4] - The company has successfully launched three key products in the optical communication sector, which are expected to contribute significantly to revenue growth in the context of increasing demand from AI data centers [4] Group 2: Industry Analysis - Transportation - The central government's emphasis on "anti-involution" is expected to promote deeper industry reforms, benefiting sectors such as aviation, express delivery, and bulk supply chain operations [5][6] - The aviation sector is anticipated to improve revenue management strategies, which will help mitigate excessive price competition and enhance profitability [7] - The express delivery industry is likely to see a more favorable competitive environment due to regulatory measures against "involution," which may lead to the concentration of market share among leading firms [8] Group 3: Industry Analysis - Renewable Energy - The solar energy sector is experiencing positive momentum due to new policies aimed at increasing renewable energy consumption, with silicon material prices on the rise [31][32] - The wind energy sector is expected to maintain strong installation growth, supported by long project cycles and increasing demand for offshore wind projects [35][37] - The digital transformation of the energy sector is accelerating, driven by government initiatives to enhance the integration of information technology and energy industries [38]

当前，我国风电产业迎来高速发展期，风电新增装机规模持续突破。业内专家表示，风电凭借接近光伏 的度电成本及更高收益率和更平稳的输出，促使新能源新增指标或向其倾斜。同时，我国风电行业正经 历"风机大型化"与"退役机组替换"的双重变革，"以大代小"改造项目推高大功率机组需求，核心部件如 风电增速器或面临较大供给缺口。（新华财经） ...

新华财经北京7月15日电（记者吴丛司）在宁夏银川市西夏区银川威力传动技术股份有限公司（简称"威 力传动"）在建的风电增速器智慧工厂地基深处，5000多根60米长的锚杆穿透流沙层直抵岩床。 站在生产车间的一排增速器产品前，威力传动董事长李想告诉记者，这些锚杆每根承受的巨大拉力，正 如风电零部件商当下的处境——在全球能源转型与产业链重构的交汇点，面对成本压力、技术迭代及国 际竞争的多重挑战，正通过技术革新、产能升级与产业链整合锻造新的支撑结构。 当前，我国风电产业迎来高速发展期，风电新增装机规模持续突破。业内专家表示，风电凭借接近光伏 的度电成本及更高收益率和更平稳的输出，促使新能源新增指标或向其倾斜。同时，我国风电行业正经 历"风机大型化"与"退役机组替换"的双重变革，"以大代小"改造项目推高大功率机组需求，核心部件如 风电增速器或面临较大供给缺口。 新能源新增指标或向风电倾斜 风机大型化趋势降本效果显著 我国风电领域取得了显著进展，无论是海上风电还是陆上风电，都得益于技术的不断革新和产业规模的 持续扩大，使得风电成本得以大幅降低。 2024年我国风电新增装机规模创历史新高。水电水利规划设计总院近期发布《中国可 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market shows mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3519.65, up 0.27% [2][4] - The Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 0.11%, while the ChiNext Index fell by 0.45% [2][4] - The overall market sentiment remains cautious with a focus on the electric power sector, which has shown strength recently [4][11] Economic Indicators - In the first half of 2025, China's total goods trade reached 21.79 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.9% [18][19] - The total value of exports was 13 trillion yuan, growing by 7.2%, while imports decreased by 2.7% to 8.79 trillion yuan [19][20] - The People's Bank of China reported an increase of 12.92 trillion yuan in RMB loans during the same period [20][21] Industry Dynamics - The EVTank report indicates that in 2024, Chinese companies dominated the global high-rate battery market, occupying eight out of the top ten positions [30] - The construction of the largest 750 kV ring network project in China has been completed, enhancing power supply capabilities in the Xinjiang region [34] - The photovoltaic industry is undergoing a transformation with efforts to reduce "involution" and improve overall market conditions [62] Company Performance - KingMed Diagnostics (603882.SH) is expected to report a net loss of 0.65 billion to 0.95 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a significant decline from a profit of 0.90 billion yuan in the previous year [36] - Zhongji United (605305.SH) anticipates a net profit of 0.25 billion to 0.30 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 78.02% to 113.63% year-on-year [37] - JiuLi Special Materials (002318.SZ) is set to enhance its production capabilities with a new high-tech seamless steel pipe production line [40] Financial Performance - Youfu Co., Ltd. (002427.SZ) expects to turn a profit in the first half of 2025, with a net profit forecast of 10 million to 15 million yuan [44] - MiaoKe LanDuo (60882.SH) projects a net profit increase of 56% to 89% for the first half of 2025, driven by rising cheese product sales [46] - Shengyi Technology (688183.SH) anticipates a staggering net profit growth of 432% to 471% for the same period, attributed to strategic product optimization [55]

Group 1 - The A-share market has recently experienced a "anti-involution" theme rally, with sectors such as steel, polysilicon, and glass seeing significant growth. The "anti-involution" theme is expected to become one of the main investment lines in the near future as it spreads across various industries [1] - Securities firms have shown considerable interest in the "anti-involution" theme, with dozens of firms publishing over a hundred reports and articles related to it since July. The most covered industries include building materials, steel, photovoltaics, and coal [1] - Analysts suggest that the implementation of "anti-involution" policies is likely to accelerate the exit of outdated production capacity, improving the net asset return rates in related industries, which would be a significant benefit for the stock market [1] Group 2 - "Expectation management" is the primary method of the current "anti-involution" policy. Traditional cyclical industries like coal and steel have largely cleared their outdated production capacity, and the concentration of industries has significantly increased [2] - The impact of the "anti-involution" policy may vary by industry. Some sectors, such as photovoltaics and lithium batteries, still have growth potential, making direct capacity clearance less likely, while traditional industries with higher capacity utilization and low product prices may see more significant effects on profitability [2] - A report from Huachuang Securities identified potential beneficiary industries of the "anti-involution" measures, with coal mining, coke, and ordinary steel being the most frequently mentioned. Other industries like passenger vehicles and wind power equipment were also highlighted as potential beneficiaries [2]

Core Insights - The Dafeng Economic Development Zone is focusing on "development" and "reform" to accelerate the construction of a modern industrial park system, fostering new technologies, industries, and business models, which lays a solid foundation for high-quality development [1] Group 1: Industrial Development - The zone is constructing a "3456" modern industrial system, emphasizing the development of the new energy and equipment manufacturing industries by attracting key equipment and technologies in wind and solar energy [2] - The high-end equipment manufacturing sector is actively recruiting projects in intelligent machinery and engineering machinery, while also focusing on attracting foreign investment from companies like Samsung Electric and others [2] - Ongoing projects include the construction of large industrial drive motors, new energy materials, and high-performance energy storage systems, with a focus on ensuring timely completion and production [2] Group 2: Innovation and Entrepreneurship - The zone is enhancing enterprise services by promoting innovation and nurturing "gazelle" and "unicorn" companies, with a focus on increasing the number of national high-tech enterprises [3] - Collaboration with universities and research institutions is being strengthened to support technological innovation, including the establishment of a national wind power technology innovation center [3] - Talent recruitment initiatives are being implemented to attract high-level professionals, with a focus on creating a platform for supply and demand between enterprises and talent [3] Group 3: Reform and Mechanism Innovation - The zone is reforming its organizational structure to enhance communication between development zones and enterprises, including increasing positions for young cadres [4] - Efforts are being made to improve the investment attraction mechanism, including the establishment of a performance-based compensation system for investment teams [4] - The transformation of state-owned platform companies is being promoted to develop future industries such as new energy and big data, while also optimizing asset utilization and financing channels [4]

本报北京电(记者廖睿灵)全球单机功率和风轮直径最大的直驱型漂浮式海上风电机组近日在福建省福清 市下线，单机功率17兆瓦，标志着中国在海上风电装备制造领域取得新的突破。 本次下线的中国华能—东方电气（600875）17兆瓦直驱漂浮式海上风电机组叶轮直径为262米，风轮扫 风面积约5.3万平方米，相当于7.5个标准足球场的面积，轮毂中心高度约152米，相当于50层居民楼高 度。相较于半直驱、双馈等技术路线的漂浮式海上风电机组，该直驱型机组发电倾角增大2°，生存倾角 增大3°，使得机组运动适应性更强，可在浮体发生更大倾斜角度时仍能持续发电，从而确保机组时间可 利用率达到99%以上，同时可应对超24米超高海浪，可抵御17级超强台风。 据介绍，该机组由中国华能牵头，联合中国东方电气集团共同研制，首次采用国产化大直径主轴轴承， 叶片、发电机、变流器、变压器等关键部件也全部实现国产化。研发团队还成功突破漂浮式风电系统耦 合仿真技术及高保真模型试验技术，攻克了叶片、低速永磁直驱电机高精度制造与装配工艺难题。华能 清洁能源技术研究院海上风电部主任刘鑫说，该机组通过引入智能传感系统,实现了漂浮式系统整体的 全局稳定控制,使得机组 ...

受光伏行业主要产品市场销售价格跌破成本线影响，公司经营仍为亏损。但通过加强内部运营管理，单位 成本及费用下降， 叠加HPBC2.0组件产品逐步投放市场并获认可，签单量及出货量增长，实现同比大幅 减亏。 （2） 通威股份 预计2025年半年度归属于母公司所有者的净利润约 为-49亿元至-52亿元 。上年同期净利润为-31.29亿 元。报告期内，尽管光伏装机规模增长，但行业供需失衡导致产品价格低迷，公司经营出现亏损。 【DT新材料】 获悉，近日，多家光伏巨头发布2025年上半年业绩预告。亏损是普遍的，不过其中也有变 化， 比如隆基绿能、爱旭科技大幅减亏，这两家均表示 BC电池 的不断渗透，大幅助力公司业绩向好。 （3）晶澳科技 （1）隆基绿能 预计归属于上市公司股东的 净亏损25亿元-30亿元 ，上年同期亏损8.74亿元。 预计2025年半年度归属于上市公司股东的 净亏损为24亿元到28亿元 ，同比减亏24.43亿元到28.43亿 元。 受近年来光伏主产业链各环节产能集中释放导致阶段性供需失衡的影响，行业竞争持续加剧，各环节主要产品价 格对比同期整体承压下行，同时国际贸易保护政策加剧， 导致公司组件销售均价和盈利 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 风电行业周报（20250707-20250711） 周内山东海风招标 0.6GW，陆风中标均价达 推荐（维持） 1793 元/kW 1）山东：7 月 8 日，华能山东 L 场址（504MW）基础沉桩施工完成。 2）广西：7 月 10 日，广西钦州海风项目（900MW）220kV/66kV 海缆和 220kV 陆缆及附件开标，由亨通预中标，金额为 8.2 亿元。 重点公司盈利预测、估值及投资评级 | | | | EPS（元） | | | PE（倍） | | PB（倍） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 简称 | 股价（元） | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | 2025E | 评级 | | 东方电缆 | 50.19 | 2.29 | 2.94 | 3.65 | 21.90 | 17.10 | 13.76 | 4.27 | 推荐 | | 中天科技 | 14.15 | 1.04 | 1.17 | 1.29 | 13.61 | 12 ...