2025 年 8 月 22 日 分析师点评 市场数据 公司研究 【非银】承保改善推动利润高增，银行板块首次扭亏为盈——众安在线（6060.HK） 2025 年半年报点评(买入) 众安在线持续领跑国内互联网财险赛道，未来随着公司研发投入赋能保险价值链成效 不断显现，盈利水平有望进一步提升。我们上调公司 2025-2027 归母净利润预测至 8.2/8.5/9.7 亿元（前值 7.4/7.9/9.0 亿元）。目前股价对应公司 25-27 年 PB 分别为 1.36/1.33/1.29，维持"买入"评级。 【石化】扣非业绩稳增长，商业航天市场开拓成果显著——九丰能源（605090.SH） 2025 年半年报点评(买入) 考虑到天然气行业景气度下行，公司天然气销量增长或将略低于我们此前预期，因此 我们小幅下调公司 2025-2026 年盈利预测，新增 2027 年盈利预测，预计公司 2025-2027 年的归母净利润分别为 17.32（下调 7%）/19.78（下调 6%）/22.45 亿 元，折合 EPS 分别为 2.60、2.97、3.37 元。维持公司"买入"评级。 风险提示：海 外天然气价格大幅波动风险、国际 ...

Core Viewpoint - The liquid cooling concept has seen a significant surge, particularly driven by the upcoming mass production of NVIDIA's GB300 chip, which is expected to enhance the demand for liquid cooling solutions in AI computing power centers [2][4]. Group 1: Market Trends and Projections - The liquid cooling market is projected to grow significantly, with estimates suggesting it could reach approximately $2.84 billion (over 200 billion RMB) in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 44.9% [7]. - By 2032, the liquid cooling market size is expected to increase to about $21.14 billion (over 1500 billion RMB), with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 33.2% from 2025 to 2032 [7]. - The penetration rate of liquid cooling in global data centers is anticipated to rise from 10% in 2024 to over 20% by 2025, driven by increasing computational power demands and energy efficiency goals [3]. Group 2: Technological Developments - NVIDIA's GB300 GPU has a thermal design power (TDP) of 140 kW, up from 120 kW in the previous generation, indicating a shift towards liquid cooling as traditional air cooling methods become inadequate [4]. - The liquid cooling technology is becoming the mainstream solution for chip and rack-level cooling due to its efficiency in managing the heat generated by high-performance computing [3][5]. Group 3: Policy and Regulatory Environment - China's regulatory framework aims to reduce the Power Usage Effectiveness (PUE) of new large-scale data centers to below 1.3 by 2025, with further reductions for national hub nodes to below 1.25 [4][5]. - The adoption of liquid cooling can significantly lower PUE, potentially achieving levels below 1.2, thus aligning with national energy efficiency targets [5]. Group 4: Industry Players and Stock Performance - Several A-share companies, including Chunzhong Technology, Siquan New Materials, and Dayuan Pump Industry, have seen their stock prices double in the past month due to their involvement in the liquid cooling sector [23]. - The company Yinvik, which has a comprehensive service capability in the liquid cooling industry and is closely tied to NVIDIA, has experienced a nearly 90% increase in stock price recently [23]. Group 5: Liquid Cooling Technology Components - The main components of liquid cooling systems include heat capture, heat exchange, and cooling sources, with cold plate liquid cooling currently holding an 80-90% market share due to its efficiency and effectiveness [9][15]. - The liquid cooling supply chain consists of upstream components, midstream servers and infrastructure, and downstream data centers, with significant growth expected in the upstream product market [17][20].

Investment Rating - The report recommends an "Overweight" rating for the liquid cooling industry, anticipating significant growth driven by AI and increased capital expenditure from major domestic companies and telecom operators [5][75]. Core Insights - Liquid cooling technology offers multiple advantages over traditional air cooling, including lower energy consumption (over 70% reduction in energy use in 2MW data centers), higher heat dissipation capabilities, and lower total cost of ownership (TCO) [3][15]. - The demand for liquid cooling is expected to surge due to AI advancements, with global liquid cooling market size projected to exceed $19 billion by 2032 [3][56]. - The increasing thermal design power (TDP) of chips necessitates a shift from air cooling to liquid cooling, as TDPs surpass 350W [3][42]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Advantages of Liquid Cooling - Liquid cooling systems demonstrate superior energy efficiency, achieving a PUE (Power Usage Effectiveness) of below 1.2 compared to air cooling's typical PUE of 1.5-1.8 [3][15]. - The cooling capacity of liquid cooling systems is significantly higher, with power density increasing from 15 kW/rack for air cooling to over 135 kW/rack for immersion cooling [15][11]. Section 2: AI-Driven Demand for Liquid Cooling - The global AI development is expected to drive the demand for computing power, with projections indicating a global computing capacity exceeding 16 ZFlops by 2030, growing at a CAGR of over 50% [38]. - Major companies like Nvidia are transitioning to liquid cooling solutions, with Nvidia's new GPU models requiring liquid cooling due to their high TDP [55][40]. Section 3: Industry Chain and Recommended Stocks - The liquid cooling industry chain includes upstream component suppliers, midstream liquid cooling server manufacturers, and downstream users such as telecom operators and internet companies [59]. - Recommended stocks for investment include Fangsheng Co., Ltd. (focused on liquid cooling heat exchangers), Litong Technology (liquid cooling hoses), and Shuguang Digital Innovation (leading in immersion cooling solutions) [60][67][70].

Group 1 - The company GaoLan Co., Ltd. (300499.SZ) has stated on its interactive platform that its data center liquid cooling products include CDU, which can integrate key components such as liquid cooling pumps [1]

Summary of Conference Call on Liquid Cooling Solutions Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the liquid cooling solutions industry, particularly advancements related to NVIDIA's GP300 and B300 server trays and their collaboration with various suppliers in the liquid cooling infrastructure sector [1][5][21]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Increased Liquid Cooling Components**: The number of liquid cooling plates in NVIDIA's GP300 server trays increased significantly from 36 in GB200 to 117 in GP300, reflecting a growing demand for enhanced cooling performance [1][2]. 2. **Power Density Improvements**: The GP300's power density has risen from 1.2 kW to 1.4 kW per card, necessitating independent liquid cooling plates for each GPU and CPU [2][3]. 3. **Collaboration with Suppliers**: NVIDIA is actively introducing new suppliers like Cooler Master and others to diversify its supply chain and enhance product offerings [1][21][22]. 4. **Testing and Validation**: NVIDIA has conducted concentrated testing of liquid cooling products, with participation from domestic companies, although results have not yet been disclosed [1][24]. 5. **Market Demand Trends**: There is an anticipated continuous growth in demand for efficient cooling solutions, particularly from North American ASIC chip manufacturers due to the release of higher power products [5][51]. 6. **Competitive Landscape**: The market is currently dominated by Taiwanese companies, but domestic firms are expected to disrupt the existing structure through cost control and technological innovation [5][31]. 7. **Cost Analysis**: The value of the B300 single machine is approximately $160,000, with CPUs accounting for $90,000 of that total [3][36]. The cooling infrastructure is valued at about $120 per kW [37]. 8. **Future Market Outlook**: The data center construction cycle is projected to plateau by 2028, leading to a slowdown in equipment demand [51]. Additionally, cooling machine prices have risen by 10% in the past six months and are expected to stabilize [52]. Additional Important Insights 1. **Technological Innovations**: The introduction of a new type of quick connector in GP300, which is more compact and customized compared to the standard NV UQD04 used in GB200, indicates a shift towards more advanced technology [4][5]. 2. **Supply Chain Dynamics**: The B300 project has shifted its supply chain dynamics, with Cooler Master becoming a primary supplier for liquid cooling components, indicating a strategic move to enhance production efficiency [21][22]. 3. **Challenges for Domestic Suppliers**: Despite opportunities for domestic companies to enter NVIDIA's supply chain, challenges remain due to established Taiwanese competitors and stringent quality requirements [31][32]. 4. **Emerging Players**: Companies like Yingwei and others are positioning themselves in the liquid cooling market, but their actual market share and impact remain uncertain [39][40]. This summary encapsulates the critical developments and insights from the conference call, highlighting the evolving landscape of the liquid cooling solutions industry and NVIDIA's strategic initiatives within it.

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The focus is on the **AI and cooling industry**, specifically the **night cooling (夜冷)** sector, which is becoming increasingly essential in the context of rising power consumption in mainstream computing chips and AI clusters [2][4]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Transition of Night Cooling**: Night cooling is shifting from an optional to a necessary component in data centers due to increasing power density and consumption in AI applications [2][3]. 2. **Market Trends**: The penetration rate of night cooling technology is continuously increasing, indicating its growing importance in the AI era [2][3]. 3. **Performance of Leading Companies**: - **Vedi**: Recently raised its earnings guidance, reflecting sustained demand for night cooling solutions driven by AI development [4][7]. - **Celestica**: Also raised its earnings guidance, indicating strong demand for ASIC-based solutions, which are critical for major tech companies [5][6]. 4. **Investment Opportunities**: Companies like **英美克 (InnoTek)** are highlighted as long-term investment opportunities due to their leading market position in night cooling technology and their entry into the North American supply chain [4][6]. 5. **Financial Performance**: - Vedi reported Q2 revenues of **$2.638 billion**, exceeding previous guidance of **$2.35 billion**, with a year-over-year growth of **35%** [7]. - The company expects Q3 revenues between **$2.51 billion and $2.59 billion**, with a year-over-year growth of **20% to 24%** [8]. 6. **Capital Expenditure**: Companies are increasing capital expenditures to expand production capacity to meet strong global demand [9]. Additional Important Content - The report emphasizes the rapid development of the ASIC market and its strong demand, which is not negatively impacting the GPU market, indicating both sectors are growing simultaneously [9][10]. - Other companies worth monitoring in the night cooling space include **森林环境 (Forest Environment)**, **银河股份 (Galaxy Co.)**, **铜飞股份 (Copper Fly Co.)**, and **高兰股份 (Golan Co.)**, which are all actively involved in various aspects of the night cooling supply chain [6]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call, highlighting the industry's trajectory, key players, and financial performance indicators.

Core Viewpoint - Guangdong Dongyangguang Technology Holdings Co., Ltd. plans to invest in Changzhou Zonghui Chip Semiconductor Technology Co., Ltd. through a capital increase, aiming to enhance its position in the data center liquid cooling technology sector by leveraging synergies with optical chip technology [1][3][10]. Summary by Sections 1. Overview of Related Transactions - The company will invest CNY 90 million to acquire 2.575% of Zonghui Chip's new registered capital of CNY 795,205.23, while its affiliate, Ningbo Yongcheng Dongyangguang Venture Capital Fund, will invest CNY 60 million for a 1.717% stake [1][2]. - This transaction has been approved by the company's board and does not require shareholder approval [2][4]. 2. Purpose and Reasons for the Transaction - The investment aims to address the growing demand for high-speed, low-energy data transmission in data centers, integrating optical chips and liquid cooling technology to enhance efficiency and reliability [3][10]. - Zonghui Chip is recognized as a leading player in the VCSEL chip sector, with strong capabilities in technology iteration and industry chain integration [3][10]. 3. Basic Information about the Investment Target - Changzhou Zonghui Chip Semiconductor Technology Co., Ltd. was established on November 18, 2015, with a registered capital of CNY 29.024 million [6][7]. - The company specializes in chip design, manufacturing, and sales of electronic products, with total assets of CNY 89.487 million and a net loss of CNY 5.829 million reported [7][8]. 4. Pricing Policy and Basis for the Transaction - The transaction pricing was determined based on a pre-investment valuation of CNY 3.285 billion, reflecting the market expectations and the company's industry characteristics [8][9]. 5. Impact on the Company - This investment is a strategic move to extend the company's reach into the upstream core components of data centers, enhancing its competitive edge in the liquid cooling technology sector [10][11]. - The funding for this transaction will come from the company's own resources, ensuring no adverse impact on its financial status [11].

Group 1 - The 3D printing industry in China is experiencing rapid growth, with equipment production increasing by 36%, 11%, and 45% year-on-year from 2023 to Q1 2025, and export volumes rising by 55%, 6%, and 24% during the same period [1] - The market applications of 3D printing have expanded from consumer goods in Europe and the US to include trendy toys in China, and are gradually penetrating functional items such as footwear and helmets [1] - 3D printing is recognized as a strategic emerging industry with strong domestic and international policy support, leading to sustained market growth [1] Group 2 - Tencent's WeGame Game Night is scheduled for June 16, showcasing important game releases and new titles, indicating a positive outlook for the gaming sector [2] - The gaming and media sectors are viewed as one of the best emerging consumer segments, with recent stock price increases in companies like Lehua, Juxing, Alibaba Pictures, Maoyan, and NetEase Music signaling a valuation recovery [2] - The cultural export of gaming and media is just beginning, supported by favorable policies, which presents further growth opportunities [2] Group 3 - The construction of new data centers is on the rise due to the AI wave, with liquid cooling technology becoming essential to address energy consumption challenges [3] - The power density of AIDC cabinets is increasing from traditional IDC levels of 5-15KW to several tens of KW, while traditional air cooling systems have a maximum cooling capacity of 25KW per cabinet [3] - Liquid cooling systems can significantly enhance energy efficiency and reduce overall costs, positioning them to become mainstream in the AIDC era [4] Group 4 - Major corporations like Amazon and Walmart are exploring the possibility of issuing their own stablecoins in the US, indicating a growing interest in digital currencies among large enterprises [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" (Maintain) [3] Core Views - The company is a leader in domestic immersion liquid cooling technology and is actively expanding into overseas and cold plate liquid cooling markets. The expected growth in the liquid cooling data center market is driven by increasing computing power demands and the associated rise in chip power consumption [4][3] - The company has a significant market share of 61.3% in the liquid cooling infrastructure sector as of 2023, maintaining its position as the industry leader for three consecutive years [4] - The financial forecasts for the company indicate a recovery in profitability, with projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 expected to be 105 million, 150 million, and 195 million yuan respectively [3][5] Financial Summary - In Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 11.67 million yuan, a decrease of 1.37%, and a net loss of 31.37 million yuan, a decline of 329.66% [3] - For the year 2024, the company achieved revenue of 506 million yuan, down 22.15%, and a net profit of 61.42 million yuan, down 41.21% [3] - The projected revenue for 2025 is 856 million yuan, with a year-over-year growth of 69.0%, and the projected net profit is 105 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 71.1% [5][7] - The company's gross margin is expected to be 28.1% in 2025, with a net margin of 12.3% [5][8] Market Outlook - The global data center liquid cooling adoption rate is anticipated to rise from 14% in 2024 to 26% in 2025, indicating a growing market opportunity for the company [4] - The liquid cooling server market in China is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 45.8% from 2023 to 2028, reaching a market size of 10.2 billion USD by 2028 [4]