过去一段时间，港股市场这种剧烈的上下起伏已经不是第一次出现。2月底以来，虽然市场多次由短期情绪和资金涌入催化快 速上冲，但始终无法"有效突破"我们早前给出的点位。我们在2月16日与2月24日连续发布《 中国资产的重估？ 》与《 再论中 国资产的重估前景 》两篇专题报告， 测算恒指中枢23,000-24,000点，乐观情形25,000点，建议在这一区间附近观望不必追 高，如果不选择获利可以适度调仓至红利。 回过头来看，这一观点是有效的。实际上，尽管活跃的市场给人一种持续火热的感觉， 但如果投资者是选择从2月底以来加仓 龙头个股或者恒指与恒生科技的话，过去一个月大概率持平甚至是亏损的。 那么，走到这一步，中国资产的重估到哪里了？ 接下来走向如何，该如何配置？有哪些节点需要重点关注？ 一、重估到哪一步了？叙事驱动的极致"结构市"，当前估值相对合理 图表：上周MSCI中国指数下跌1.7%，电信服务与房地产领跌，而公用事业与能源逆势上涨 点击小程序查看报告原文 资料来源：FactSet，中金公司研究部 过去一周港股市场大幅波动，周初恒指一度逼近我们给出的乐观情形25,000点，随即再度大幅回撤，恒生科技周四周五连续两 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the communication industry, indicating an expectation of growth exceeding the benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 3-6 months [43]. Core Insights - The domestic leading IDC companies are successfully advancing REITs/ABS, which is expected to accelerate industry expansion through enhanced financing channels [19][22]. - The upcoming GTC 2025 event is anticipated to catalyze the AI hardware supply chain, with significant product launches from NVIDIA [26][32]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The communication sector (Shenwan) increased by 0.60% this week, underperforming the CSI 300 index, which rose by 1.59% [11][12]. - Year-to-date, the communication sector has risen by 6.31%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 4.49% [11][12]. IDC Companies and REITs/ABS - The REITs initiative allows IDC companies to separate ownership from operational rights, facilitating a shift towards a lighter asset operation model [19][21]. - The successful application for REITs by Runze Technology and the issuance of ABS by Guokong Data mark significant milestones in the digital infrastructure sector [22]. GTC 2025 Event - GTC 2025 will take place from March 17-21, 2025, in San Jose, featuring key announcements from NVIDIA, including the launch of the GB300 and B300 series chips [26][28]. - The event is expected to showcase advancements in AI infrastructure, particularly with the introduction of the NVL288 rack configuration [31][32]. Investment Recommendations - Key recommendations include China Mobile, China Telecom, and China Unicom for operators; and for optical modules, companies like Tianfu Communication, Zhongji Xuchuang, and Xinyi Technology are highlighted [34]. - In the IDC sector, Runze Technology is a primary recommendation, with additional attention on Guokong Data and Aofei Data [34].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies, including Century Internet, Huayi Group, and 361 Degrees, indicating a positive outlook for their future performance [19][25][31]. Core Insights - The report highlights significant growth in capital expenditure for Century Internet, projecting a 101-141% increase in 2025, driven by strong demand in the AIDC sector [15]. - The AI and cloud computing sectors are experiencing increased investment from both domestic and international giants, which is expected to accelerate AI application deployment [16]. - The report emphasizes the robust growth potential in the AIDC cloud computing market, with recommendations for various companies across different segments [17]. - Huayi Group is expected to see a revenue increase of 19.4% in 2024, with a focus on expanding production capacity and optimizing customer structure [19]. - 361 Degrees anticipates breaking the 10 billion yuan revenue mark in 2024, with a strong emphasis on exploring new retail formats [25]. - The report notes that the toy market, particularly in the building block segment, is rapidly growing, with a projected increase in market size from 773.1 billion yuan in 2023 to 993.7 billion yuan by 2028 [32]. - Shandong Pharmaceutical Glass is positioned to benefit from the increasing demand for borosilicate glass, with projected net profits growing significantly over the next few years [36][37]. Summary by Sections Technology Sector - The report discusses the trading congestion indicators for the technology sector, suggesting that high trading volumes may indicate a risk of price corrections [3]. - Relative valuation metrics show that technology growth stocks are not at historical extremes but are also not particularly cheap, with TMT and robotics sectors at high percentiles [4][5]. Communication Sector - Century Internet's capital expenditure is expected to reach 100-120 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a strong growth trajectory in the AIDC market [15]. - The demand for AIDC services is anticipated to accelerate, supported by significant contracts from major clients [15]. Consumer Goods Sector - Huayi Group's new factory efficiency is expected to impact Q4 earnings positively, with optimistic projections for Adidas orders [19]. - 361 Degrees is actively exploring new retail formats and anticipates a revenue increase of 19.6% in 2024 [25]. Toy Industry - The report highlights the rapid growth of the building block toy market, with a significant market share held by companies like Bluko, which is leveraging a strong IP portfolio [31][32]. Pharmaceutical Glass Industry - Shandong Pharmaceutical Glass is expected to see substantial growth in net profits due to the increasing adoption of borosilicate glass in the pharmaceutical sector [36][37].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The demand for AIDC cabinets is expected to continue increasing in the AI era, and IDC REITs will assist AIDC companies in achieving scale expansion [6][18] - IDC REITs can help domestic IDC companies to revitalize existing assets, improve financing pressure, and create a closed funding loop [4][13] - Implementing IDC REITs allows IDC companies to enhance their ROE and transition to a light asset operation model [5][16] Summary by Sections REITs Structure - China's REITs pilot adopts a trust-based structure, distinguishing between company-type and contract-type REITs, with the latter being predominant in Asia [12] IDC REITs Benefits - IDC REITs provide a viable channel for mature projects to realize significant investment returns, facilitating new project development and acquisitions [4][13] - By separating heavy asset operations from the parent company, IDC REITs can lower financial risks and costs while maintaining operational income through management of the REITs [5][16] Investment Recommendations - Key recommendations include companies like Runze Technology (first IDC REITs filing) and Baoxin Software, with beneficiaries including a range of IDC firms such as Guanghuan New Network and Century Interconnect [6][18]

Summary of AIDC Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the AIDC (Artificial Intelligence Data Center) industry, highlighting its current performance and future prospects in the context of the broader IDC (Internet Data Center) market [2][3][34]. Key Insights and Arguments - **Market Confidence**: The stock prices of IDC companies have generally increased over the past week, indicating sustained market confidence in the AIDC sector. The industry is expected to be the first to realize demand and profitability in the domestic computing sector in 2025 [2][3]. - **Capital Expenditure Growth**: It is anticipated that capital expenditures from internet companies will significantly increase in 2025, with Tencent expected to exceed 100 billion RMB and Alibaba also reaching similar levels. Overall, the investment scale may reach 450 to 500 billion RMB, doubling year-on-year [3][4]. - **Order Demand**: The expected capital expenditure will generate over 3 GW of order demand, while the mainstream IPC manufacturers are projected to release only about 1.5 GW, creating a substantial supply-demand gap [3][5]. - **Data Center Rental Prices**: Nationally, data center rental prices are stable but vary significantly by region, with Inner Mongolia being the lowest (<300 RMB/kW/month) and Langfang the highest (>1,000 RMB/kW/month). This price disparity reflects strong demand and enhances profitability [6][12]. - **Major Orders**: ByteDance has placed significant orders in 2024 and continues to do so in 2025, with substantial orders directed to companies like Huohuan New Network and Baoxin Software. Alibaba and Tencent are also expected to release considerable IPC demand [7][11]. - **East Data West Calculation Plan**: This initiative promotes a balanced layout of data centers across the country, with non-first-tier cities like Guizhou and Inner Mongolia becoming ideal locations due to resource availability and lower costs [13][12]. Notable Companies and Recommendations - **Companies to Watch**: Recommended companies include Runze Technology, Aofei Data, GDS, Century Internet, Huohuan New Network, and Hong Kong New Network Group, all of which show strong potential in the IDC business and related industries [3][9][14][22]. - **Runze Technology**: Noted for its significant sales in AI servers and potential for growth, with a projected increase in business scale from 110 billion to 150 billion RMB [9][22]. - **Aofei Data**: Recently announced a financing plan to support data center construction, reflecting strong demand from major internet companies [11][24]. - **GDS in Malaysia**: GDS has established a significant presence in Malaysia, with plans for further expansion, driven by demand from ByteDance and other companies [16]. Additional Important Insights - **Supply Chain Risks**: Concerns about potential supply chain disruptions could lead to increased reliance on domestic alternatives for AI chips, such as the Ascend 910C [3][15]. - **Profitability Factors**: The profitability of IDC companies is influenced by pricing strategies and the utilization rate of data centers. Companies achieving high utilization rates can significantly enhance their profitability [32]. - **Future Growth Potential**: The overall outlook for the IDC industry remains positive, driven by increasing domestic and international demand for computing power, with a focus on companies that have established a strong order backlog [34]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed during the conference call, providing insights into the AIDC industry's current state and future opportunities.