核心观点 国信证券近日发布通信行业2025年10月投资策略：北美CSP云厂（包括亚马逊、谷歌、Meta、微软、甲 骨文等）计划2025财年资本开支超过3700亿美金，同比增长40%。 国信证券近日发布通信行业2025年10月投资策略：北美CSP云厂（包括亚马逊、谷歌、Meta、微软、甲 骨文等）计划2025财年资本开支超过3700亿美金，同比增长40%。其中，甲骨文最新一季财报显示，其 FY26Q1末剩余履约义务（RPO）达4550亿美元，较上季度末增加3170亿美元，公司将继续加大AI投 入，预计2026财年资本开支达350亿美元。IDC数据显示，全球以太网交换机市场在2025年Q2营收145亿 美元（约1033亿人民币），同比增长42.1%。 以下为研究报告摘要： （2）三大运营商仍属红利配置重要资产，三大运营商经营稳健，并且分红比例持续提升，高股息价值 仍在，建议长期持续配置三大运营商。 2025年第9月重点推荐组合：中国移动、中际旭创、中兴通讯、广和通。 风险提示：宏观经济波动风险、数字经济投资建设不及预期、AI发展不及预期、中美贸易摩擦等外部 环境变化。（国信证券 袁文翀,张宇凡） 9月行情回顾：板 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights significant revenue growth for the companies analyzed, with New Yisong achieving a revenue of 10.44 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 282.6% [6] - The report indicates a strong performance in the optical module market, driven by high demand for advanced products such as 1.6T modules and silicon photonics [6][12] - The North American ASIC custom chip market is expected to continue growing, benefiting major suppliers like New Yisong, with projected shipments reaching 5 million units in 2025 [6] Company Summaries New Yisong (300502.SZ) - In the first half of 2025, New Yisong reported a revenue of 10.44 billion yuan, up 282.6% year-on-year, and a net profit of 3.94 billion yuan, an increase of 355.7% [6] - The company’s optical module production capacity reached 15.2 million units, with a production volume of 7.1 million units, reflecting growth of 66.7% and 86.4% respectively [6] - The gross margin improved to 47.4%, up 2.7 percentage points from the previous year, indicating effective cost control and strong demand from key customers [6] Tianfu Communication (300394.SZ) - Tianfu Communication achieved a revenue of 2.46 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 57.8%, with a net profit of 900 million yuan, up 37.5% [10] - The company’s active business segment saw substantial growth, driven by high-speed active products and ongoing expansion of its Thai factory [10][11] - The demand for 1.6T optical modules is expected to rise significantly, supported by Nvidia's upcoming product launches [10][11] Dekeli (688205.SH) - Dekeli reported a revenue of 430 million yuan in the first half of 2025, a 5.9% increase, but net profit fell by 48.2% to 30 million yuan [14] - The decline in performance is attributed to reduced demand in the telecommunications transmission market and insufficient capacity release in the DCI segment [14][15] - The company is focusing on the development of silicon-based OCS technology, with sample orders already received, indicating potential future growth [17]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference focused on the consumer electronics industry, particularly advancements in AR/VR technology, traditional mobile phones, AIoT products, and optical communication technologies [1][2][3][4][5][6][9]. Core Insights and Arguments AR/VR Technology - The Shenzhen Optical Expo in 2025 saw high investor participation, with significant attention on AR/VR glasses technology. Companies like Sunny Optical launched a 0.74 mm thick color waveguide, emphasizing lightweight and long battery life. AR glasses are expected to enter mass production after 2027 [1][4]. - Over 30 companies showcased AR/VR technologies at the expo, indicating a strong market interest [3]. Traditional Mobile Phones and AIoT Products - Traditional mobile phones received low attention at the expo, attributed to a stagnant market. However, companies like Sunny Optical and AAC Technologies made notable advancements in lens modules [1][5]. - AIoT products, particularly action cameras, panoramic cameras, and drones, saw a significant demand increase, with Chiu Tai's camera module shipments rising by 180% year-on-year in August [1][5]. Automotive and Robotics Trends - In the automotive lens sector, Sunny Optical reported a 22% year-on-year increase in shipments in August. The potential for intelligent driving technology is highlighted as an area for investor focus [1][6]. iPhone 17 Market Response - The iPhone 17 exceeded sales expectations, with some models experiencing a 3-4 week wait time for orders. The standard version's sales improved due to increased memory at stable prices, enhancing its cost-performance ratio [1][7]. Optical Communication Technologies - The CPO switch gained attention, with expectations of over 10,000 units supplied by 2026. The CPC solution received industry recognition, and the OCS optical switch, primarily using MEMS technology, is projected to reach a shipment level of 10,000 units by 2026 [1][10][12][13]. Storage Sector Trends - The storage sector is experiencing price increases, with DRAM prices rising significantly (80-90% for consumer-grade, 30-40% for PC-grade). NAND prices are also expected to rise due to strong enterprise SSD demand [20][21]. - Companies like Jiangbolong are expected to see significant growth in enterprise SSD business, with a notable increase in capital expenditures from major players like Alibaba [20][21]. Other Important Insights - The conference highlighted a shift in market focus from traditional mobile phones to optical communication and AIoT products, reflecting changing consumer and technological trends [2][9]. - The Chinese government's investigation into discriminatory practices in the U.S. semiconductor industry may benefit domestic companies like Naxin and SIRUI, as they have the potential to replace affected products [18][19]. - The emergence of new technologies such as hollow fibers and coherent light technology is expected to enhance the competitive landscape for leading firms in the optical communication sector [15][16]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed during the conference, providing insights into current trends and future opportunities within the consumer electronics and optical communication industries.

Group 1 - The company, Ruijie Networks (301165.SZ), clarified that it has not partnered with Nvidia to develop CPO switches [1] - The company possesses relevant technology reserves related to CPO and has previously collaborated with Tencent and Broadcom on innovations and applications of CPO technology in switching networks [1]

Core Viewpoint - Ruijie Networks announced on September 4 that its self-developed 400G/800G high-speed optical module products are primarily aimed at internet companies with high-performance computing network needs, aligning with their data center switch products and overall solutions [1] Group 1 - The company has not collaborated with NVIDIA to develop CPO switches [1] - The company possesses relevant CPO technology reserves and has previously collaborated with Tencent and Broadcom on innovations and applications of CPO technology in switching networks [1] - Currently, the company has not initiated self-developed switch chip business [1]

Group 1 - The company currently does not have OCS switch products and is actively exploring new network architectures and cutting-edge technologies to meet changing user demands [1] - The company has not partnered with NVIDIA to develop CPO switches [1] - The recent release of the State Council's AI+ action plan is expected to accelerate the iteration and evolution of AI technologies, promoting high-quality development across various industries [1] Group 2 - As AI application scenarios deepen, the demand for computing power is expected to continue rising [1] - Computing power networks are anticipated to experience sustained development opportunities as a key support in this trend [1]

Group 1 - The company currently does not have OCS switch products and is actively exploring new network architectures and cutting-edge technologies to meet changing user demands [1] - The company has not partnered with NVIDIA to develop CPO switches [1] - The recent release of the State Council's AI+ action plan is expected to accelerate the iteration of AI technologies and promote high-quality development across various industries [1] Group 2 - As AI application scenarios deepen, the demand for computing power is expected to continue rising [1] - Computing power networks are anticipated to experience sustained development opportunities as a key support in this trend [1]

Investment Rating - Maintain "Buy" rating for the optical communication sector, particularly for leading companies like Zhongji Xuchuang and Xinyi Sheng [4][11]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the ongoing expansion of AI computing power globally, driven by Nvidia's strong financial performance, which enhances the valuation of upstream optical modules and related industries [8][21]. - The Chinese overseas computing power supply chain is transitioning from "performance realization" to "expectation amplification," indicating a secondary market rally [3][8]. - The optical communication industry is poised for a new growth opportunity due to technological iterations and demand upgrades, particularly in the context of the Scale-up trend [21][24]. Summary by Sections Investment Strategy - Focus on the optical communication sector, recommending companies such as Zhongji Xuchuang, Xinyi Sheng, and Tianfu Communication, among others [9][14]. Market Review - The communication sector has seen an increase, with the optical communication index performing the best, showing a rise of 29.5% [19][20]. Key Developments - Nvidia's recent financial results have reinforced expectations for AI expansion, with Q2 revenue reaching $46.7 billion, a 56% year-on-year increase [25]. - The data center segment is experiencing robust growth, with revenues of $41.1 billion, reflecting a 56% year-on-year increase [25]. - The importance of networking is highlighted, with optical interconnects expected to be a key technology supporting the Scale-up architecture [25][26]. Performance Realization - Leading optical module companies have reported significant growth, with Xinyi Sheng's revenue increasing by 282.64% year-on-year and net profit by 355.68% [26]. - The global market for Ethernet optical modules is projected to exceed $30 billion by 2030, with nearly $20 billion attributed to AI clusters [26][6]. Structural Opportunities - The report identifies structural opportunities in optical fibers and cables, particularly in high-density short-distance applications [27]. - Innovations such as hollow-core fibers are being piloted, with Microsoft planning to deploy 15,000 kilometers of hollow-core fiber within two years [27]. Recommendations - The report continues to favor the computing power sector, recommending investments in leading optical module companies and related firms in the domestic computing power supply chain [8][28].

Core Insights - The report highlights the release of DeepSeek-V3.1, which utilizes UE8M0FP8Scale parameter precision, aiming to enhance the capabilities of domestic AI chips and promote large-scale production [1][2] - Nvidia's request for suppliers like Hon Hai Group and Samsung Electronics to halt H20 chip production indicates a shift in the competitive landscape, reinforcing the potential for domestic AI chip alternatives [1] - The report emphasizes the strong growth in the liquid cooling business of Yingweike, with a revenue increase of 50.3% year-on-year, driven by robust demand from AI data centers [1] Industry Developments - The domestic computing power chain is experiencing multiple positive developments, including the adaptation of UE8M0FP8 floating-point format for next-generation domestic chips [1] - The overseas optical communication solutions are accelerating, with Nvidia's Quantum-X InfiniBand switch expected to be commercially available in early 2026, and the introduction of new Ethernet technologies [1][2] - The server index has increased by 8.30% this week and 17.28% this month, indicating strong market performance and demand for AI servers [2] Financial Performance - Yingweike reported a revenue of 2.573 billion yuan for H1 2025, reflecting a 50.3% increase, with a net profit of 216 million yuan, up 17.5% [1] - Major tech companies like Microsoft, Google, Meta, and Amazon have shown significant capital expenditures in Q2 2025, with year-on-year increases of 28%, 70%, 102%, and 91% respectively [3] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on sectors driven by domestic AI development, such as servers and IDC, as well as those benefiting from overseas AI advancements, including servers and optical modules [4]

Summary of Conference Call Records Company Overview - The company discussed is 太辰光 (Tachyon), a leading manufacturer of MT ceramic inserts in China, focusing on the MPO (Multi-fiber Push On) market and emerging technologies like CPO (Co-Packaged Optics) and GPU direct light technology [1][2][3]. Industry Insights - The MPO market is expected to grow rapidly, with projections indicating a market size exceeding $3 billion by 2026, driven by the high growth of the optical module industry [1][9]. - The MPO industry has a relatively simple structure, with major customers including North American cloud providers like Google, Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta, who rely on wiring companies for comprehensive solutions [5]. Key Points and Arguments - 太辰光 holds a market share of 10%-15% in the MPO market, positioning itself as a significant supplier [1][9]. - The company has achieved improved gross and net profit margins through self-supply of core components, which have been certified by major clients and are now in mass production [1][9]. - CPO switches are gaining attention for their high bandwidth density and low energy consumption, with NVIDIA planning to mass-produce CPO switches in the second half of 2025, indicating increasing market penetration [1][10]. - MMC (Miniature Multi-fiber Connector) connectors are becoming a preferred choice for CPO switches due to their smaller size, allowing for higher density fiber arrangements [1][11]. Emerging Technologies - The company is actively investing in new technologies such as CPO and GPU direct light, collaborating with high-quality clients to prepare for future technology implementation [2][15]. - GPU direct light technology could significantly increase the demand for cables and connectors, as each GPU may require 60 to over 100 fibers in the future [13][14]. Historical Development and Future Potential - Established over 20 years ago, 太辰光 quickly became an industry leader in MT ceramic inserts and has continuously reduced costs, contributing significantly to broadband network development in China [7][8]. - The company has a diversified product line, including MPO/MTP jumpers, low-speed optical modules, and PLC/AWG planar waveguide products, with major clients like Corning and Huawei [6]. Additional Important Insights - The company is not significantly affected by tariffs, as partnerships with large American firms like Corning provide tariff exemptions [3][15]. - The internal connection lines in the CPU era are expected to evolve, requiring more compact designs for efficient installation and maintenance [12]. This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call, highlighting the company's strategic positioning within the MPO market and its proactive approach to emerging technologies.