Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The balance of bank convertible bonds may shrink by approximately 10 billion yuan this year, and by the end of 2025, it may be around 9 billion yuan. If other commercial banks can follow the example of state - owned banks' low - PB private placements, there may be a possibility of supplementary supply of bank convertible bonds [3][4]. - The replacement bottom - position varieties should have the characteristics of high rating, low volatility, and high capital capacity. It is recommended to pay attention to AAA - rated convertible bonds in non - banking finance and general public utilities for low - volatility and high - rating, and photovoltaic equipment and pig - breeding convertible bonds for large capital capacity [3][40]. - For photovoltaic equipment convertible bonds, it is recommended to screen leading individual bonds and leave room for rating downgrades. When the convertible bond price is low, gradually build a position [2][22]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. The balance of bank convertible bonds may shrink by about 10 billion yuan this year - As of June 30, 2025, there were 10 bank convertible bonds in the market, with a balance of 13.49 billion yuan, a decrease of 7 bonds and 11.1 billion yuan compared with the end of 2023. If the relevant convertible bonds are all delisted, the balance of bank convertible bonds will further shrink by 10.13 billion yuan to 8.98 billion yuan by the end of 2025 compared with the end of 2024 [4]. - The shrinkage of bank convertible bond scale may be irreversible in the short term. It is necessary to observe the progress of bank capital replenishment. Currently, the policy supports state - owned large - scale banks to replenish core tier - one capital. This year, the private placement prices of four state - owned big banks were lower than 1 - time PB, about 0.7 - time PB. There are bank convertible bonds totaling 2.9 billion yuan that have been announced but not issued, and the current PB multiples of the underlying stocks are between 0.5 - 0.7 times [4]. 2. The replacement bottom - position varieties should have three characteristics: high rating, low volatility, and high capital capacity - Before 2024, bank convertible bonds mainly served as bottom - position allocation varieties, with limited contribution to returns. Since 2024, due to the strengthening of the dividend style, bank convertible bonds have advantages in both returns and volatility. After bank convertible bonds exit the market, investors may return to the pre - 2024 investment model, and the difficulty of participation has increased. Some investors may leave the convertible bond market [13]. - The replacement bottom - position varieties should have high rating, low volatility, and high capital capacity. Configuration is the primary function, and individual bond elastic returns are a by - product [13]. 3. Low - volatility and high - rating: AAA - rated convertible bonds in non - banking finance and general public utilities - As of June 30, there were 4 non - banking finance convertible bonds, with 3 AAA - rated ones having a total scale of 1.46 billion yuan. They belong to the same large - finance industry as bank convertible bonds, with low risks of underlying stock delisting and credit default. After a sharp rise, it is not recommended to chase the high. When the convertible bond price returns to around 110 - 115 yuan, it may be a good bottom - position allocation buying point [17]. - The so - called "general public utilities" include public utilities and transportation. There are 3 AAA - rated convertible bonds in this sector, with a balance of 1 billion yuan. The advantage is a long remaining term, and the disadvantage is a relatively high current convertible bond price and insufficient defense against underlying stock decline [18][20]. 4. Large capital capacity: Photovoltaic equipment and pig - breeding convertible bonds - Photovoltaic equipment and pig - breeding are both strong - cycle industries. The current balance of photovoltaic equipment convertible bonds is 6.08 billion yuan, and the balance of pig - breeding convertible bonds is 2.72 billion yuan. The photovoltaic equipment sector's net profit turned negative in 2024, and the pig - breeding sector may have passed the most difficult period, but the pig price has been falling since August 2024 [21]. - The advantages of photovoltaic equipment convertible bonds are low prices and high capital accommodation. It is recommended to screen leading individual bonds and leave room for rating downgrades. The advantage of pig - breeding convertible bonds is mainly large capital capacity, and it is necessary to pay attention to the marginal changes in the pig price [22].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes that investment opportunities in the credit bond market for July are hidden in niche varieties, durations, and issuers [6][9]. - The report indicates that the short-end strategy remains stable, with high-grade bonds showing limited excess returns while low-grade bonds continue to be explored [6][9]. - The report notes that the market sentiment in the first week of July is positive, with mid-to-long-term spreads continuing to compress, indicating a market still seeking duration for yield [6][9]. Group 2 - The report highlights that the issuance of credit bonds has significantly decreased, but net financing has increased due to a faster reduction in repayment amounts [22][23]. - It mentions that the average coupon rates for newly issued AAA and AA+ bonds have shown a slight decline, while the issuance costs for mid-to-low grade bonds have increased [22][23]. - The report states that the valuation of credit bonds across various grades and maturities has declined, with mid-to-long-term yields decreasing more significantly than short-term yields [22][26]. Group 3 - The report suggests that the main strategy for urban investment bonds in July is to focus on short-end bonds within a 3-year duration, while extending duration to 5 years where possible [14][19]. - It indicates that the absolute yield gap has narrowed significantly, making further short-end exploration challenging, and emphasizes the need for a balanced approach in duration management [14][19]. - The report identifies specific regions such as Shandong, Sichuan, Tianjin, and Henan as areas for potential exploration in the short-end segment [14][19]. Group 4 - The report notes that credit spreads for urban investment bonds have generally narrowed by about 4 basis points across most provinces, with minimal differentiation between regions [29][30]. - It highlights that the credit spreads for various industries have also contracted by 3 to 4 basis points, indicating a consistent trend across sectors [29][30]. - The report points out that the real estate sector continues to experience significant valuation volatility, reflecting ongoing market challenges [29][30].

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 1.4% to close at 3472.32 points, with a peak of 3497.22 points during the week [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index rose by 1.25% to 10508.76 points, reaching a high of 10610.5 points [1] - The ChiNext Index saw a 1.5% increase, closing at 2156.23 points, with a maximum of 2187.88 points [1] - In the global market, the Nasdaq Composite rose by 1.62%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 2.3%, and the S&P 500 gained 1.72% [1] - In the Asia-Pacific region, the Hang Seng Index fell by 1.52%, and the Nikkei 225 Index decreased by 0.85% [1] New Stock Issuance - One new stock was issued last week: 301630.SZ, with a subscription date of July 1, 2025 [2] Margin Trading Situation - The total margin trading balance in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 18470.61 billion yuan, with a financing balance of 18341.82 billion yuan and a securities lending balance of 128.79 billion yuan [3] - The margin trading balance increased by 134.02 billion yuan compared to the previous week [3] - The Shanghai market's margin trading balance was 9348.08 billion yuan, up by 48.25 billion yuan, while the Shenzhen market's balance was 9122.53 billion yuan, increasing by 85.78 billion yuan [3] - A total of 3411 stocks had margin buying, with 70 stocks having buying amounts exceeding 1 billion yuan, led by Dongfang Caifu, Zhongji Xuchuang, and Xinyi Sheng with buying amounts of 67.58 billion yuan, 53.81 billion yuan, and 42.71 billion yuan respectively [3][4] Fund Issuance Situation - Twelve new funds were issued last week, including various types such as bond funds and stock funds [5] Company Buyback Amounts - Eighteen companies announced buybacks last week, with the highest amounts executed by Zhongwei Co., BOE Technology Group, and Longbai Group, with buyback amounts of 86.33 million yuan, 82.38 million yuan, and 20.17 million yuan respectively [6][7] - The industries with the highest buyback amounts were electric equipment, electronics, and retail [7]

Report Investment Rating - The investment rating for the stock index futures is a fluctuating and moderately bullish pattern [1] Core Viewpoints - The market's center of gravity continued to rise last week, with a late - stage rally followed by a decline. The core driver of last week's market was the China Central Finance and Economics Commission meeting on the 1st, which emphasized "anti - involution" through the construction of a unified market, leading to a sharp increase in market expectations for a new round of supply - side reform. The value style outperformed last week, with IH and IF stronger than IC and IM, mainly due to the rise of cyclical products. Overseas, the US "Great Beauty Act" was passed, non - farm payroll data was better than expected, and tariff negotiations were underway, causing the S&P 500 and Nasdaq to reach new highs [1] - Currently, the external geopolitical situation is calm, global risk assets are performing strongly, and the domestic economic outlook has shifted from pessimistic to stable, with structural reforms starting to take effect. The risk appetite in the stock market continues to recover, which is an important basis for the current long - position pattern of stock index futures. However, there is a lack of momentum for marginally positive surprises. As long as there are no unexpected changes in external forces and no intensification of domestic structural adjustments, the current pattern of fluctuating upward is expected to continue [2] Summary by Directory Market Review and Outlook - **Market Performance**: Last week, the market's center of gravity rose, with a late - stage rally followed by a decline. In terms of sectors, steel, building materials, and banks led the gains, while computer, non - bank finance, and beauty care led the losses. The value style outperformed, with IH and IF stronger than IC and IM, mainly due to the rise of cyclical products. Overseas, the US "Great Beauty Act" was passed, non - farm payroll data was better than expected, and tariff negotiations were underway, causing the S&P 500 and Nasdaq to reach new highs [1] - **Future Outlook**: The current external geopolitical situation is calm, global risk assets are performing strongly, and the domestic economic outlook has shifted from pessimistic to stable, with structural reforms starting to take effect. The risk appetite in the stock market continues to recover, which is an important basis for the current long - position pattern of stock index futures. However, there is a lack of momentum for marginally positive surprises. As long as there are no unexpected changes in external forces and no intensification of domestic structural adjustments, the current pattern of fluctuating upward is expected to continue. This week, attention should be paid to the release of June economic data in China [2] - **Factors to Watch**: Domestic economy and overseas tariff negotiation progress [3] Strategy Recommendations - **Short - term Strategy**: For intraday trading, refer to the 1 - minute and 5 - minute K - line charts. Set stop - loss and take - profit levels for IF, IH, IC, and IM at 76 points/95 points, 58 points/31 points, 66 points/121 points, and 84 points/142 points respectively [4] - **Trend Strategy**: Adopt a strategy of buying on dips. The core operating range for the IF2507 main contract is between 3826 and 4024 points; for the IH2507 main contract, between 2649 and 2772 points; for the IC2507 main contract, between 5646 and 6025 points; and for the IM2507 main contract, between 5970 and 6372 points [4] - **Cross - variety Strategy**: Due to the frequent switching between value and growth styles recently, it is advisable to wait and see [5] Spot Market Review - **Global Stock Index Performance**: Last week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 2.3%, the S&P 500 rose 1.72%, and the Nasdaq rose 1.62%. In Europe, the UK's FTSE 100 rose 0.27%, Germany's DAX fell 1.02%, and France's CAC 40 rose 0.06%. In the Asia - Pacific market, Japan's Nikkei 225 fell 0.85%, and the Hang Seng Index fell 1.52% [8] - **Domestic Index Performance**: Since 2025, major domestic indices have risen. Last week, all major domestic indices also showed an upward trend [8] Index Valuation Tracking - As of June 27, the TTM price - to - earnings ratio of the Shanghai Composite Index was 14.93 times, the TTM price - to - earnings ratio of the CSI 300 Index was 13.02 times, the TTM price - to - earnings ratio of the SSE 50 Index was 11.18 times, the TTM price - to - earnings ratio of the CSI 500 Index was 27.66 times, and the TTM price - to - earnings ratio of the CSI 1000 Index was 36.02 times [19][20] Market Capital Flow Review - **Investor and Fund Data**: The number of new investors in the two markets and the share of newly established equity - biased funds are presented in relevant charts. Last week, the capital interest rate declined, and the central bank had a net withdrawal of funds [22]

Summary of the Conference Call on Southbound Capital Flow into Hong Kong Stocks Industry Overview - The report focuses on the Hong Kong stock market and the dynamics of southbound capital flow from mainland China to Hong Kong stocks, highlighting a significant shift in investor composition from retail to institutional investors [1][3][5]. Key Points and Arguments - **Significant Capital Inflow**: In Q1 2025, southbound capital inflow reached approximately 400 billion RMB, with total inflow for the first half of 2025 nearing 700 billion RMB, indicating a strong bullish trend in the Hong Kong stock market [1][3]. - **Change in Investor Composition**: The proportion of retail investors has decreased significantly, with institutional investors now contributing a larger share of the inflow. In Q1 2025, retail investors accounted for only 40% of the inflow, down from 85% in 2024 [3][5]. - **Historical Context**: From 2016 to 2023, southbound capital consistently flowed into Hong Kong stocks, with net inflows averaging around 300 billion RMB annually, except for 2018. The share of southbound holdings in the overall Hong Kong investor base rose from 13.5% at the beginning of 2024 to 20.7% by mid-2025 [1][4]. - **Institutional Investment Drivers**: The scarcity of high-yield assets in a quasi-deflationary environment has driven institutional investors to the Hong Kong market, particularly in sectors aligned with the AI trend. Insurance capital is primarily focused on banking and non-banking sectors, while public and ETF funds are more inclined towards technology stocks [6][7]. - **Future Projections**: The total southbound capital inflow for 2025 is expected to exceed 1 trillion RMB, with insurance capital potentially contributing over 300 billion RMB. Public funds have a theoretical capacity for an additional 300 billion RMB in investments through existing funds and contract modifications [7][8]. Other Important Insights - **Potential for Further Inflows**: The report suggests that institutional investors still have significant room for increasing their allocations to Hong Kong stocks, with a projected actual increase of 200 to 300 billion RMB from public funds [2][7]. - **Market Sentiment**: The current macroeconomic environment is seen as stable, which supports the attractiveness of scarce assets in the Hong Kong market, reinforcing the expectation of continued capital inflow [7].

2025年上半年， 美股一、二级市场持续火热。 核心指数方面， 道琼斯工业指数累计上涨3.64%，纳斯达克指数 累计上涨5.48%，标普500指数涨幅达5.50%。根据Wind数据统计，2025年上半年，美股市场股权融资（包含IPO 与再融资）规模总计950亿美元，较去年同期823亿美元增加127亿美元，增幅15.46%。 其中，非银金融行业 （SPAC上市算作非银融资）募资总额329亿美元，占比34.60%。 IPO方面，2025年上半年共198家企业成功上市，较去年同期增加84家；融资金额总计259亿美元，较去年同期增 长33.72%；其中，募资规模最大的是Venture Global，募资总额达17.50亿美元。SPAC方面，2025年上半年IPO融 资家数为52家，较去年同期增加40家；融资金额总计94亿美元，较去年同期大幅上升338.60%。中概股方面，上 半年赴美IPO的公司以中小型企业为主导，总计上市40家，较去年同期增加15家；融资金额总计仅9亿美元，较去 年同期减少61.12%。 再融资方面，2025年上半年再融资事件数为429起，较去年同期减少17起；再融资规模总计691亿美元，较去年同 ...

Quantitative Models and Construction 1. Model Name: Volume Model - **Construction Idea**: This model uses trading volume data to predict short-term market trends[2][11] - **Construction Process**: The model evaluates trading volume changes across broad-based indices to generate buy or neutral signals. Specific thresholds or patterns in volume are used to determine the directional bias[11] - **Evaluation**: The model is partially optimistic for broad-based indices in the short term[11][66] 2. Model Name: Low Volatility Model - **Construction Idea**: This model focuses on the volatility of asset prices to assess market conditions[11] - **Construction Process**: The model calculates the historical volatility of indices and assigns a neutral signal when volatility remains within a predefined range[11] - **Evaluation**: The model is neutral for the short term[11][66] 3. Model Name: Institutional Feature Model (LHB) - **Construction Idea**: This model incorporates institutional trading data, such as large trades or block trades, to predict market movements[11] - **Construction Process**: The model analyzes institutional trading patterns, such as those from the "Dragon and Tiger List" (龙虎榜), to generate signals. A bearish signal is issued when institutional selling dominates[11] - **Evaluation**: The model is bearish for the short term[11][66] 4. Model Name: Intelligent Algorithm Models (HS300 and CSI500) - **Construction Idea**: These models use machine learning algorithms to analyze historical data and predict market trends[11] - **Construction Process**: The HS300 model generates a bullish signal for the CSI 300 index, while the CSI500 model remains neutral. The models likely use features such as price momentum, volume, and other technical indicators[11] - **Evaluation**: The HS300 model is optimistic, while the CSI500 model is neutral in the short term[11][66] 5. Model Name: Limit-Up/Limit-Down Model - **Construction Idea**: This model evaluates the frequency and distribution of limit-up and limit-down events to assess market sentiment[12] - **Construction Process**: The model calculates the ratio of stocks hitting daily price limits and assigns a neutral signal when no significant bias is observed[12] - **Evaluation**: The model is neutral for the medium term[12][67] 6. Model Name: Calendar Effect Model - **Construction Idea**: This model leverages seasonal or calendar-based patterns in market behavior[12] - **Construction Process**: The model analyzes historical performance around specific calendar dates (e.g., month-end or quarter-end) to generate signals. It remains neutral when no strong seasonal patterns are detected[12] - **Evaluation**: The model is neutral for the medium term[12][67] 7. Model Name: Long-Term Momentum Model - **Construction Idea**: This model uses long-term price momentum to predict market trends[13] - **Construction Process**: The model calculates momentum indicators over extended periods and assigns a neutral signal when no clear trend is identified[13] - **Evaluation**: The model is neutral for all broad-based indices in the long term[13][68] 8. Model Name: Comprehensive Weaponry V3 Model - **Construction Idea**: This composite model integrates multiple short-term, medium-term, and long-term signals to provide an overall market outlook[14] - **Construction Process**: The model aggregates signals from various sub-models (e.g., volume, volatility, momentum) and generates a bullish signal for the A-share market[14] - **Evaluation**: The model is optimistic for the A-share market[14][69] 9. Model Name: Comprehensive Guozheng 2000 Model - **Construction Idea**: This model focuses on the Guozheng 2000 index, combining multiple signals to assess market conditions[14] - **Construction Process**: Similar to the Weaponry V3 model, this model aggregates signals but remains neutral for the Guozheng 2000 index[14] - **Evaluation**: The model is neutral for the Guozheng 2000 index[14][69] 10. Model Name: Turnover-to-Volatility Model (Hong Kong Market) - **Construction Idea**: This model evaluates the ratio of turnover to price volatility to predict market trends in the Hong Kong market[15] - **Construction Process**: The model calculates the turnover-to-volatility ratio and generates a bullish signal when the ratio indicates strong market activity relative to volatility[15] - **Evaluation**: The model is optimistic for the medium term in the Hong Kong market[15][70] --- Backtesting Results of Models 1. Volume Model - **Signal**: Partially bullish for broad-based indices in the short term[11][66] 2. Low Volatility Model - **Signal**: Neutral for the short term[11][66] 3. Institutional Feature Model (LHB) - **Signal**: Bearish for the short term[11][66] 4. Intelligent Algorithm Models (HS300 and CSI500) - **Signal**: Bullish for HS300; neutral for CSI500 in the short term[11][66] 5. Limit-Up/Limit-Down Model - **Signal**: Neutral for the medium term[12][67] 6. Calendar Effect Model - **Signal**: Neutral for the medium term[12][67] 7. Long-Term Momentum Model - **Signal**: Neutral for all broad-based indices in the long term[13][68] 8. Comprehensive Weaponry V3 Model - **Signal**: Bullish for the A-share market[14][69] 9. Comprehensive Guozheng 2000 Model - **Signal**: Neutral for the Guozheng 2000 index[14][69] 10. Turnover-to-Volatility Model (Hong Kong Market) - **Signal**: Bullish for the medium term in the Hong Kong market[15][70]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods - **Model Name**: A-Share Industry Rotation Model **Model Construction Idea**: The model uses six factors—capital, valuation, sentiment, momentum, overbought/oversold, and profitability—to build a scoring system for industry evaluation[17] **Model Construction Process**: - **Capital Factor**: Based on industry net inflow rate of major funds - **Valuation Factor**: Uses the valuation percentile of the industry over the past year - **Sentiment Factor**: Derived from the proportion of rising constituent stocks - **Momentum Factor**: Based on MACD indicator - **Overbought/Oversold Factor**: Uses RSI indicator - **Profitability Factor**: Based on the consensus forecast EPS percentile of the industry over the past year[17] **Model Evaluation**: The model provides a comprehensive scoring system to assess industry rotation trends[17] - **Model Name**: Consensus Stock Selection Model **Model Construction Idea**: The model identifies high-growth industries and selects stocks with high similarity between high-frequency capital flow trends and stock price trends[20] **Model Construction Process**: - Filters high-growth industries at the Shenwan secondary industry level based on the past 30-day performance - Calculates momentum, valuation, and frequency of price increases for stocks within these industries - Uses high-frequency minute-level capital flow data to compute changes in inflow/outflow for each stock - Selects stocks with the highest similarity between capital flow trends and price trends within the top-performing secondary industries[20] **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively identifies stocks with strong capital flow and price trend alignment[20] --- Model Backtesting Results - **A-Share Industry Rotation Model**: - **Top Scoring Industries**: Comprehensive (+10), Non-ferrous Metals (+10), Electronics (+7)[18][19] - **Low Scoring Industries**: Banking (-15), Petrochemicals (-9), Transportation (-8)[19] - **Consensus Stock Selection Model**: - **Selected Industries**: Communication Equipment, Ground Armament II, Components[21] - **Selected Stocks**: - Communication Equipment: New Yisheng, Move Communication, Feiling Kesi, Hengtong Optoelectronics, Meixin Technology - Ground Armament II: Great Wall Military Industry, Optical Shares, Inner Mongolia First Machine, Sweet Qin Equipment, Ganfa Technology - Components: Jingwang Electronics, Deep South Circuit, Fangbang Shares, Zhongjing Electronics, Shenghong Technology[21] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods - **Factor Name**: Capital Factor **Construction Idea**: Measures industry net inflow rate of major funds[17] **Construction Process**: Aggregates daily net inflow data for transactions exceeding 10,000 shares or 200,000 yuan[12] **Evaluation**: Reflects the strength of capital flow within industries[17] - **Factor Name**: Valuation Factor **Construction Idea**: Uses industry valuation percentile over the past year[17] **Construction Process**: Calculates the relative valuation position of the industry within a one-year window[17] **Evaluation**: Indicates whether an industry is undervalued or overvalued[17] - **Factor Name**: Sentiment Factor **Construction Idea**: Based on the proportion of rising constituent stocks[17] **Construction Process**: Computes the percentage of stocks within the industry that have increased in price[17] **Evaluation**: Captures market sentiment towards the industry[17] - **Factor Name**: Momentum Factor **Construction Idea**: Uses MACD indicator to measure price trends[17] **Construction Process**: Applies MACD calculations to industry-level data[17] **Evaluation**: Identifies industries with strong upward or downward trends[17] - **Factor Name**: Overbought/Oversold Factor **Construction Idea**: Uses RSI indicator to assess market conditions[17] **Construction Process**: Calculates RSI values for industries to determine overbought or oversold conditions[17] **Evaluation**: Helps identify potential reversals in industry trends[17] - **Factor Name**: Profitability Factor **Construction Idea**: Based on consensus forecast EPS percentile over the past year[17] **Construction Process**: Aggregates EPS forecasts and calculates relative percentile rankings[17] **Evaluation**: Reflects the earnings potential of industries[17] --- Factor Backtesting Results - **Capital Factor**: Comprehensive (++), Non-ferrous Metals (++), Electronics (++), Banking (---), Petrochemicals (---), Transportation (---)[19] - **Valuation Factor**: Comprehensive (+++), Non-ferrous Metals (++), Electronics (+), Banking (-), Petrochemicals (---), Transportation (---)[19] - **Sentiment Factor**: Comprehensive (-), Non-ferrous Metals (+++), Electronics (+++), Banking (--), Petrochemicals (---), Transportation (---)[19] - **Momentum Factor**: Comprehensive (+++), Non-ferrous Metals (+++), Electronics (+), Banking (--), Petrochemicals (---), Transportation (---)[19] - **Overbought/Oversold Factor**: Comprehensive (+++), Non-ferrous Metals (+++), Electronics (+), Banking (--), Petrochemicals (---), Transportation (---)[19] - **Profitability Factor**: Comprehensive (+++), Non-ferrous Metals (+++), Electronics (+++), Banking (---), Petrochemicals (---), Transportation (---)[19]

宏观经济 | 证券研究报告 — 总量周报 2025 年 7 月 6 日 周度金融市场跟踪 财经委会议"反内卷"，钢铁建材领涨 A 股；债 券市场收益率整体小幅震荡下行 （ 6 月 30 日 -7 月 4 日） 股票方面，本周 A 股震荡上涨，全周累计看，沪深 300 上涨 1.5%，中证 2000 上涨 0.6%。本周港股走势弱于 A 股，恒生指数下跌 1.5%，恒生科技指数下跌 2.3%。行业方面，本周钢铁、建筑材料和银行领涨，计算机、非银金融和美容 护理领跌。周内看，周一（6 月 30 日）上午，6 月制造业 PMI 指数发布，连续 2 个月回升。当天市场超 4000 只股票上涨。周二（7 月 1 日）市场震荡上涨。 周二盘后中央财经委第六次会议新闻发布，会议强调依法依规治理企业低价无 序竞争。受此影响，周三（7 月 2 日）钢铁、煤炭和建筑材料等传统周期类行业 领涨 A 股。周四（7 月 3 日）盘前美国解除对中国芯片设计类软件出口限制新 闻发出，当天市场超 3200 家公司上涨，创业板指数上涨 1.9%。周五（7 月 4 日） 市场有所分化，以沪深 300 为代表的大盘股上涨，但以中证 2000 为代 ...

Group 1 - The market is experiencing an upward shift in the oscillation center, characterized by "top and bottom" dynamics, with a positive outlook for effective index breakthroughs due to monthly momentum reversal and rising trading volume [2][12][13] - Profitability is still in a bottoming phase, with expectations that the profit bottom will not arrive before the end of Q3, limiting the elasticity of the current profit cycle [2][13] - Valuation support is provided by government-backed credit policies, with a focus on stable growth and market stabilization measures [2][13] Group 2 - Structural opportunities are emphasized, particularly in "Deep Sea Technology" and "Newly Listed Stocks," alongside existing themes like "Delta G Consumption" and "Self-Controlled Technology" [3][23] - "Deep Sea Technology" is positioned as a strong thematic opportunity for the second half of the year, aligning with national strategic priorities and policies aimed at enhancing marine economic development [4][24][29] - The deep sea technology industry chain is extensive, covering upstream materials, midstream manufacturing, and downstream resource utilization, indicating a comprehensive growth potential [4][32] Group 3 - Newly listed stocks have regained prominence since September 2024, with a significant upward trend observed in their performance, correlating closely with improvements in economic confidence [5][34] - The performance of newly listed stocks is highly correlated with macroeconomic indicators, suggesting that as economic expectations improve, these stocks are likely to outperform the market [5][38] - A new index, the "Open Source Newly Listed Stock Index," has been created to better track and represent the performance of newly listed stocks, expanding the criteria to include stocks listed for up to six years [5][44] Group 4 - Current investment strategy emphasizes diversification across sectors, focusing on "Delta G Consumption," "Self-Controlled Technology," "Stable Dividends," and "Gold" [6][50] - Specific sector recommendations include domestic consumption, technology growth, cost improvement sectors, and structural opportunities in exports, particularly to Europe [6][50] - The strategy aims to capture the greatest expected differences and domestic certainties while avoiding over-concentration in any single sector [6][50]