一、中国制造业采购经理指数运行情况 7月份，制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为49.3%，比上月下降0.4个百分点，制造业景气水平有所回落。 | | PMI | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 生产 | 新订单 | 原材料 | 从非人员 | 供应商 | | | | | | 年仔 | | 酉庆时间 | | 2024年7月 | 49.4 | 50.1 | 49.3 | 47.8 | 48.3 | 49.3 | | 2024年8月 | 49.1 | 49.8 | 48.9 | 47.6 | 48.1 | 49.6 | | 2024年9月 | 49.8 | 51.2 | 49 0 | 47.7 | 48.2 | વેત રે | | 2024年10月 | 50.1 | 52.0 | 50.0 | 48.2 | 48.4 | 49.6 | | 2024年11月 | 50.3 | 52.4 | 50.8 | 48.2 | 48.2 | 50.2 | | 2024年12月 | 50.1 | 52.1 | 51.0 | 48.3 | 48.1 ...

Manufacturing Sector - In July, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) decreased to 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing activity due to seasonal factors and adverse weather conditions [2][3] - The production index remained in expansion at 50.5%, while the new orders index fell to 49.4%, reflecting a slowdown in market demand [3] - Large enterprises maintained expansion with a PMI of 50.3%, while medium-sized enterprises improved to 49.5%, and small enterprises decreased to 46.4% [4] - The price index showed an upward trend, with the main raw materials purchasing price index rising to 51.5%, marking the first increase above the critical point since March [3][4] - New momentum in the manufacturing sector is evident, with the equipment manufacturing PMI at 50.3% and high-tech manufacturing PMI at 50.6%, both above the critical point [4] Non-Manufacturing Sector - The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index stood at 50.1%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, but still above the critical point [5] - The service sector's business activity index was stable at 50.0%, with significant growth in transportation and tourism-related industries, while real estate and residential services lagged [5][6] - The construction sector's business activity index fell to 50.6%, influenced by adverse weather conditions, with a corresponding decrease in market expectations [6] Composite PMI - The Composite PMI Output Index decreased to 50.2%, down 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, indicating overall expansion in production and business activities [7] - The manufacturing production index and non-manufacturing business activity index were recorded at 50.5% and 50.1%, respectively, both indicating continued expansion [7]

智观年中经济形势 编者按7月30日召开的中共中央政治局会议研判了当前经济形势，部署了下半年经济工作。上半年中国经济顶住压力，实现了5.3%的平稳增长。面对外部 环境复杂多变、内部风险挑战增多的局面，下半年经济形势和政策走向备受瞩目。对此，围绕财政收入、固定资产投资、产业经济、对外开放、创新动 能、地区经济六个维度，中国经济时报邀请国家高端智库等权威机构专家，研判上半年经济形势，展望下半年政策走向。 核心观点： 下半年，面临更加复杂严峻的国际国内形势，要以更大力度推进高水平对外开放，为中国式现代化作出更大贡献。一是更大力度强化政策制 度制定和实施，二是更大力度提升开放平台功能，三是更大力度推进多双边经贸合作。 ■崔卫杰 今年上半年，面对风高浪急的国际环境和艰巨繁重的国内任务，我国坚定不移扩大高水平对外开放，有效应对外部冲击，对外开放各项工作取得积极成 效，展现出强大韧性和良好发展态势。下半年，面临更加复杂严峻的国际国内形势，中国对外开放将继续承压前行，但我国综合优势明显，随着各项开放 措施持续发力，我国对外开放工作仍不乏亮点。下一步，要更大力度强化高水平对外开放政策制度的制定和落实，更大力度提升开放平台功能，更 ...

国家统计局服务业调查中心 中国物流与采购联合会 一、中国制造业采购经理指数运行情况 7月份，制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为49.3%，比上月下降0.4个百分点，制造业景气水平有所回落。 从企业规模看，大型企业PMI为50.3%，比上月下降0.9个百分点，高于临界点；中型企业PMI为49.5%，比上月上升0.9个百分点，低于临界点；小型企业PMI 为46.4%，比上月下降0.9个百分点，低于临界点。 从分类指数看，在构成制造业PMI的5个分类指数中，生产指数和供应商配送时间指数均高于临界点，新订单指数、原材料库存指数和从业人员指数低于临 界点。 新订单指数为49.4%，比上月下降0.8个百分点，表明制造业市场需求有所放缓。 原材料库存指数为47.7%，比上月下降0.3个百分点，表明制造业主要原材料库存量继续减少。 从业人员指数为48.0%，比上月上升0.1个百分点，表明制造业企业用工景气度略有回升。 供应商配送时间指数为50.3%，比上月上升0.1个百分点，表明制造业原材料供应商交货时间继续加快。 表1 中国制造业PMI及构成指数（经季节调整） 单位：% | | PMI | | | | | | | --- | ...

Economic Performance - In the first half of 2025, Shenzhen's GDP reached 1.83 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.1% at constant prices [1] - Major economic indicators showed accelerated growth compared to the first quarter, indicating a stable and improving economic trend [1] Industrial and Service Sector - The added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 4.3% year-on-year, with a slight acceleration of 0.1 percentage points from the first quarter [1] - The service sector's added value was 1.18 trillion yuan, growing by 6.1% year-on-year, also up by 0.1 percentage points from the first quarter [1] - Retail sales of consumer goods totaled 494.868 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 3.5%, with an acceleration of 0.4 percentage points from the first quarter [1] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment in Shenzhen decreased by 10.9% year-on-year, primarily due to a decline in real estate development investment, which fell by 15.1% [1] - Excluding real estate, private investment grew by 3.6% year-on-year, with private industrial investment increasing by 10.6% [1] - Infrastructure investment rose by 7.7% year-on-year, while industrial technological transformation investment surged by 47.1% [1] Foreign Trade - In the first half of 2025, Shenzhen's total import and export volume was 2.17 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.1%, with the decline narrowing by 1.7 percentage points compared to the first quarter [2] - Exports amounted to 1.31 trillion yuan, down by 7.0% year-on-year, while imports increased by 9.5% to 858.864 billion yuan [2] - The decline in exports was attributed to a high base from the previous year when foreign trade growth was rapid [2]

Core Insights - The ADP report indicates that the recovery in the service sector has led to an increase in hiring numbers, although the education and healthcare sectors have experienced net job losses so far this year [1] Group 1 - The service sector's recovery is a significant driver of job growth [1] - Education and healthcare sectors have seen a net loss of jobs in 2023 [1]

Long-term Planning - The Politburo meeting in July emphasized long-term planning, focusing on the "14th Five-Year Plan" as a core topic for the upcoming Fourth Plenary Session in October[1] - The meeting highlighted the importance of new productive forces in the context of technological competition, particularly in the U.S.-China rivalry[2] Economic Performance - China's GDP grew by 5.3% in the first half of the year, with a nominal GDP target of approximately 140 trillion yuan for the full year[3] - The government anticipates maintaining a steady economic trend in the second half, with a target GDP growth of around 5%[3] Fiscal and Monetary Policy - The meeting called for a more proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy, emphasizing the effective implementation of existing policies rather than new stimulus measures[4] - As of June 2025, new local government special bond issuance exceeded 2.2 trillion yuan, marking a significant increase from 1.5 trillion yuan in the same period last year[4] Domestic Consumption - Final consumption expenditure contributed 52% to the economy in the first half of 2025, with service trade retail growing by 5.3% and goods retail by 5.1%[7] - The government aims to enhance service consumption as a key driver for expanding domestic demand, supported by policies aimed at improving living standards[7] Industry Capacity Management - The meeting stressed the need for capacity governance in key industries, particularly in the new energy vehicle and photovoltaic sectors, to eliminate outdated production capacity[8] - Regulatory measures will focus on enhancing industry standards and preventing redundant capacity construction[8] Foreign Trade Support - China's exports to the U.S. saw a decline from a growth rate of 5.6% in March to -9.9% in June, while overall export growth remained at 7.2%[10] - The government is implementing financial policies to support foreign trade enterprises affected by external pressures, focusing on relief rather than filling external demand gaps[10] Capital Market Development - The government aims to enhance the attractiveness and inclusivity of domestic capital markets, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising over 7.8% by the end of July 2025[12] - Future policies will support technology-driven and growth-oriented enterprises, with expectations for increased dividend payouts to attract long-term capital[12]

Economic Overview - The city's GDP reached 732.93 billion yuan in the first half of the year, with a year-on-year growth of 5.2% at constant prices [1] - The primary industry added value was 7.82 billion yuan, growing by 2.7%; the secondary industry added value was 271.02 billion yuan, growing by 5.6%; and the tertiary industry added value was 454.09 billion yuan, growing by 4.9% [1] Production and Supply - Industrial output above designated size increased by 8.5% year-on-year, with manufacturing output growing by 8.7%, contributing 88.5% to the industrial growth [1] - The scale of service industry revenue increased by 9.5% from January to May, with 90% of the 10 industry categories showing positive growth [1] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment grew by 4.3% year-on-year, accelerating by 0.6 percentage points compared to the first quarter [2] - Investment in industrial sectors surged by 31.5%, with manufacturing investment rising by 36.6% [2] - Private investment increased by 10%, outpacing the overall investment growth by 5.7 percentage points [2] Consumer Market - The total retail sales of consumer goods reached 333.74 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 6.6%, accelerating by 0.9 percentage points from the first quarter [3] - Retail sales of sports and entertainment products surged by 110% and 94.9%, respectively, significantly contributing to retail growth [3] - The "old-for-new" policy stimulated substantial growth in related consumer goods, with wearable smart devices and communication equipment seeing retail sales growth of 140% and 130%, respectively [3] Emerging Industries - High-tech industries showed robust growth, with value added in high-tech manufacturing and strategic emerging industries increasing by 10.3% and 10.2%, respectively [4] - Investment in computer and office equipment manufacturing surged by 163.3%, while aerospace and pharmaceutical manufacturing investments grew by 62.6% and 38.4%, respectively [4] - Online retail sales through public networks increased by 40.8%, indicating strong demand in e-commerce [4]

Group 1: Employment Trends - In 2023, manufacturing employment is significantly above potential levels by 0.2 million, with its revenue share of GDP exceeding potential levels by 5.8%[1] - The employment share in manufacturing has increased by 6.2% compared to potential levels, indicating a pronounced "involution" phenomenon[1] - Conversely, the service sector has a significant employment gap of 0.4 million, with its employment share falling to -3.8% compared to potential levels[1] Group 2: Investment Insights - Manufacturing investment remains high despite declining revenues, indicating an "involution" in the sector[1] - The potential investment gap in the service sector is estimated to be around 1.5 trillion yuan, reflecting a mismatch with current demand[1] Group 3: Consumption Gaps - The gap in goods consumption compared to potential levels is approximately 640 billion yuan, while the gap in service consumption reaches nearly 30 trillion yuan[2] - In 2024, the per capita gap in service consumption is projected to be 2,093 yuan, highlighting a significant shortfall in service demand[2] Group 4: Policy Directions - Current policies are encouraging increased consumer time, which is expected to boost service demand, with a notable increase in holiday allowances[5] - The service sector is receiving policy support, with significant improvements in investment growth, particularly in the life services sector, which saw a growth rate of 15.3% in May, nearing the highest level since 2017[5]

Economic Overview - The GDP of Tai'an City in Shandong Province grew by 6.2% year-on-year in the first half of the year, reaching 192.34 billion yuan [1] - The total retail sales of social consumer goods increased by 7.6% year-on-year [1] - The total output value of the construction industry rose by 5.7% year-on-year [1] Industry Performance - The agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector achieved a total output value of 42.08 billion yuan, growing by 4.5% year-on-year [2] - The industrial production value for large-scale enterprises increased by 7.6% year-on-year, with manufacturing leading at 9.3% growth [2] - The construction industry completed a total output value of 61.03 billion yuan, with significant contributions from installation and construction projects [2] Service Sector Growth - The revenue of large-scale service enterprises reached 16.21 billion yuan from January to May, marking an 11.0% year-on-year increase [3] - Among the ten major service sectors, eight experienced positive revenue growth, with seven sectors achieving double-digit growth [3] Investment and Consumption - Fixed asset investment in Tai'an increased by 5.1% year-on-year, with industrial investment rising by 23.3% [4] - Social retail sales of consumer goods grew by 7.6%, with significant contributions from home appliances and food categories [4] Foreign Trade - The total import and export value reached 29.22 billion yuan, reflecting an 18% year-on-year increase, with exports growing by 27.9% [5] - New markets in Africa and Latin America contributed significantly to export growth [5] Financial Stability - The general public budget revenue was 16.62 billion yuan, up by 4.2% year-on-year, while expenditures increased by 5.0% [6] - By the end of June, the balance of deposits in financial institutions reached 738.91 billion yuan, growing by 10.5% [7] Energy Consumption - Total electricity consumption was 14.43 billion kWh, with industrial and service sectors showing growth of 2.0% and 4.9% respectively [7]