Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - The bond market rebounded slightly last week due to the central bank's 900 billion yuan 6 - month repurchase operation, a 25BP reduction in the structural monetary policy tool rate, good December import - export growth, weak December financial data, consecutive negative growth in household loans for three months, and the A - share market correction [1][4][11][39] - The current bond market is more likely to fluctuate. The economic stabilization since Q4 2024 was mainly due to central government leverage. With no additional treasury bond issuance in Q4 2025 and the decline in government bond financing growth, the domestic economy in Q4 remains under pressure. Also, in 2026, the Party Central Committee emphasizes high - quality development more, and the importance of "seeking progress while maintaining stability" in economic aggregates has decreased. Additionally, the absolute interest rate level is low, there is heavy selling pressure in treasury bond futures, and investor sentiment is generally weak [2][3][12][13] - The 30 - 10 spread of treasury bonds reached a new high this week and is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the near term. The spread of 20 - year CDB bonds is expected to fluctuate narrowly [2][3][12][13] Summary by Directory Weekly Review Long - term Bond Review - The central bank conducted a 900 billion yuan 6 - month repurchase operation and reduced the structural monetary policy tool rate by 25BP. December import - export growth was good, but December financial data was weak, with household loans in negative growth for the third consecutive month. Along with the A - share correction, the bond market rebounded slightly. The trading activity of long - term bonds decreased slightly last week but was still very active. The term spread and variety spread of long - term bonds widened [1][4][11] Long - term Bond Investment Outlook - **30 - year Treasury Bonds**: As of January 16, the spread between 30 - year and 10 - year treasury bonds was 46BP, at a historically low level. Considering economic and policy factors, the bond market is likely to fluctuate, and the 30 - 10 spread is expected to fluctuate at a high level [2][12] - **20 - year CDB Bonds**: As of January 16, the spread between 20 - year CDB bonds and 20 - year treasury bonds was 15BP, at a historically extremely low level. Given the economic situation, the bond market is likely to fluctuate, and the variety spread of 20 - year CDB bonds is expected to fluctuate narrowly [3][13] Long - term Bond Basic Overview - The balance of outstanding long - term bonds is 24.3 trillion yuan. As of December 31, the total amount of long - term bonds with a remaining maturity of over 14 years was 24.4329 trillion yuan, accounting for 15.1% of the total bond balance. Local government bonds and treasury bonds are the main varieties. In terms of remaining maturity, the 30 - year variety has the highest proportion [14] Primary Market Weekly Issuance - Last week (January 12 - 16, 2026), the issuance of long - term bonds dropped sharply to 83.7 billion yuan. By variety, treasury bonds were 32 billion yuan, local government bonds were 51.7 billion yuan, and other varieties had zero issuance. By term, the 30 - year variety had the largest issuance [19] This Week's Planned Issuance - The announced long - term bond issuance plan for this week is 102.2 billion yuan, including 10.12 billion yuan of long - term local government bonds and 1 billion yuan of long - term medium - term notes [25] Secondary Market Trading Volume - Last week, long - term bonds were very actively traded, with a turnover of 879.5 billion yuan, accounting for 9.7% of the total bond turnover. The trading activity decreased slightly compared to the previous week, with a decrease in turnover and proportion in most varieties, except for an increase in long - term local government bonds and long - term government agency bonds [27][28] Yield - Due to various factors, the bond market rebounded slightly. The yields of 15 - year, 20 - year, 30 - year, and 50 - year treasury bonds, CDB bonds, local bonds, and railway bonds changed to different extents. Representative individual bonds also had corresponding yield changes [39][40] Spread Analysis - **Term Spread**: The term spread of long - term bonds widened last week, with an absolute low level. The 30 - 10 spread of benchmark treasury bonds was 46BP, a 4BP change from the previous week, at the 35th percentile since 2010 [46] - **Variety Spread**: The variety spread of long - term bonds widened last week, with an absolute low level. The spreads between 20 - year CDB bonds and treasury bonds, and 20 - year railway bonds and treasury bonds were 15BP and 20BP respectively, with changes of 1BP and 2BP from the previous week, at the 14th and 20th percentiles since 2010 [47] 30 - year Treasury Bond Futures - Last week, the main contract of 30 - year treasury bond futures, TL2603, closed at 111.16 yuan, an increase of 0.26%. The total trading volume was 542,700 lots (- 18,010 lots), and the open interest was 140,000 lots (- 8,274 lots). Both trading volume and open interest decreased slightly compared to the previous week [52]

Report Title - The report is titled "Hualian Futures Treasury Bond Weekly Report: Structural Interest Rate Cut Implemented, Short - Duration High - Quality Bonds Lead the Rise" [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report Core Viewpoints - This week, the total issuance scale of China's bond market was 1405.62 billion yuan, with the supply rhythm significantly advanced at the beginning of the year. Government bonds and credit bonds jointly pushed up the weekly issuance volume. Market institutions predict that the net financing of government bonds in Q1 2026 may reach 830 - 880 billion yuan [7] - This week, the central bank's open - market operations had a net injection of 171.28 billion yuan to supplement short - and medium - term liquidity, hedge against capital gaps, and support the "good start" of credit and the stable operation of the bond market [7] - This week, the performance of credit bonds with different ratings and maturities was significantly differentiated. There was a strong preference for short - duration high - coupon assets, and the market was cautious about the credit risk of industrial bonds. 1 - 3 - year credit bonds were the core of allocation [7] - This week, the long - end yield continued to decline. It is recommended to appropriately allocate 1 - 3 - year treasury bonds and local bonds on dips [7] - In December 2025, new social financing decreased year - on - year, and the stock growth rate declined. The central bank's targeted easing policies will improve the inefficiency of capital activation and reduce the financing cost of key areas [9] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Bond Market Issuance - This week, the total issuance scale of China's bond market was 1405.62 billion yuan. Government bonds (treasury bonds + local bonds) issued over 1.2 trillion yuan, and the combined issuance of medium - term notes, commercial paper, and financial bonds was 314.781 billion yuan. Market institutions predict that the net financing of government bonds in Q1 2026 may reach 830 - 880 billion yuan, with a monthly average of over 130 billion yuan, much higher than in 2025 [7] 2. Central Bank Operations - This week, the central bank's open - market operations had a net injection of 171.28 billion yuan. On January 15, a 90 - billion - yuan 6 - month repurchase was carried out, with a net injection of 30 billion yuan. Considering the large tax revenue in January, the central bank used daily repurchases and term repurchases to avoid a sharp tightening of liquidity [7] 3. Credit Bond Performance - This week, the performance of credit bonds with different ratings and maturities was significantly differentiated. The yield of AA - rated 1 - year urban investment bonds dropped from 2.39% on January 12 to 1.08% on January 16, a decrease of over 130 BP. Some high - rated varieties entered the "negative spread" range. The average yield of AAA - rated industrial bonds was 7.31%, significantly higher than that of urban investment bonds. 1 - 3 - year credit bonds were the core of allocation, and funds preferred 3 - year - and - below varieties [7] 4. Yield and Liquidity - This week, the long - end yield continued to decline, with the 30 - year treasury bond yield falling to 2.3010% and the 10 - year yield falling to 1.8430%. DR007 fluctuated around the 1.40% policy rate, and the overnight Shibor was stable in the 1.2% - 1.3% range. Short - end liquidity remained loose, and it was recommended to appropriately allocate 1 - 3 - year treasury bonds and local bonds on dips [7] 5. Social Financing and Monetary Data in December 2025 - New social financing in December 2025 was 221 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 64.62 billion yuan. The stock growth rate dropped 0.2 percentage points to 8.3%. The net financing of government bonds decreased significantly year - on - year, dragging down the overall social financing growth rate [9] - In terms of credit structure, corporate loans increased by 107 billion yuan year - on - year, with short - term loans and bill financing accounting for a relatively high proportion. Resident loans decreased, and the "scissors gap" between M1 and M2 widened [9] - The central bank cut the interest rates of various structural monetary policy tools by 0.25 percentage points and added 400 billion yuan in re - loan quotas for scientific and technological innovation and technological transformation. The minimum down - payment ratio for commercial real estate loans was reduced from 50% to 30% [9] - In December 2025, the weighted average interest rate of newly issued corporate loans and personal housing loans both dropped to a historical low of 3.1%. The targeted easing policy will improve capital activation and reduce the financing cost of key areas [9] 6. Charts and Data - The report includes multiple charts on treasury bond futures prices, basis, implied interest rates, yield curves, various bond yields, inter - bank repurchase rates, lending rates, money market liquidity, bond market liquidity, foreign bond markets, etc., providing data support for the analysis of the bond market situation [10][13][15]

Group 1 - The report suggests that the recent peak for the 10-year government bond is around 1.9%, with potential upward movement if equity and commodity markets rise again. However, the upward space for long-term bond rates is limited, recommending a neutral duration strategy for portfolios [7][11][39] - Potential bullish factors for bonds include a period of rate stabilization after reaching high levels and expectations for interest rate cuts around the Lunar New Year, particularly if the central bank lowers relending and rediscount rates [7][39][40] - The report highlights that medium to long-term government bonds have performed well due to better-than-expected redemption regulations and a preference for government bonds in the secondary market, suggesting continued attention to their relative value [12][40] Group 2 - The report outlines four strategies for bond selection: focusing on high-frequency trading opportunities, considering long-term bonds with favorable odds, identifying trading opportunities in medium-term government bonds, and assessing the value of specific bonds [15][36] - In the context of 30-year government bonds, the current spread between 30-year and 10-year bonds is around 46 basis points, with expectations for this spread to widen due to supply concerns and nominal growth expectations [14][36] - The report indicates that the current yield levels for various bonds are not high compared to historical averages, suggesting that bonds may be undervalued relative to equities [28][36]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - This week's macro data is positive. Social financing and export data both exceeded expectations, and the settlement and sale of foreign exchange reached a new high for a single month in the past 10 years. The improvement in corporate credit and strong export performance indicate an economic recovery. The commodity market has cooled down, and the bond market has entered a relatively balanced range [1][2][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Data Continued to Improve, Corporate Credit Improved, and Exports Were Strong - In December 2025, the social financing growth rate was higher than expected, with loan components providing support and a significant improvement in corporate credit. New social financing in December was 22,080 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 8.30%. Corporate short-term loans were stronger than seasonal trends, and medium- and long-term loans improved year-on-year [9] - Exports in December increased by 6.6% year-on-year, and the full-year increase was 5.5%, both significantly exceeding market expectations. The settlement and sale of foreign exchange surplus in December reached the highest level for a single month since 2014, at 999.3 billion US dollars [2][9] - Historically, exchange rate appreciation is relatively beneficial to domestic assets. The central bank emphasized "preventing overshoot risks" in its recent statements [2][10] Commodity Market Pulled Back, and the Range of Rising Commodities "Narrowed" - Since the beginning of the year, commodities and equities have emerged in resonance, led by precious metals and non-ferrous metals. The Nanhua Commodity Index has risen by 3.7%. The market is mainly driven by geopolitical uncertainties and optimistic expectations for metals. The strength order is precious metals > non-ferrous metals > black metals > agricultural products > energy and chemicals [3][12] - After the Shanghai Stock Exchange raised the margin ratio for margin trading and the exchange introduced restrictions on some popular varieties, the commodity market cooled down. Only precious metals continued to rise, while the growth of non-ferrous metals slowed, and energy, chemicals, black metals, and agricultural products turned from rising to falling [3][14] - In the non-ferrous metals sector, there is an extreme style differentiation. Large-cap "value" varieties such as copper and aluminum are oscillating, lacking strong driving funds, while small-cap "growth" non-ferrous metals are highly elastic. Small metals are driven by supply factors, but their prices are volatile and difficult to sustain. Precious metals are mainly affected by geopolitical variables, with gold being less volatile than silver [3][16][19] Bond Market Entered a Relatively Balanced Range, and Attention Should Be Paid to the Differentiated Trends of Long-Term Bonds - Currently, the interest rate market has entered a relatively balanced range. The 30-year Treasury bond rate is around 2.3%, and the 10-year Treasury bond rate quickly returned to the central bank's desired range (around 1.85%) after a brief fluctuation [5][20] - For interest rate bonds, the short-term downward space is limited. Bond market sentiment has improved, and large banks have increased their purchases of 7 - 10-year bonds, which may indicate more policy easing. The profit of short-selling interest rate bonds has also decreased [5][20] - The strategy of short-selling local government bonds is attracting more attention, which may bring trading opportunities for widening spreads. The borrowing of local government bonds has increased, mainly due to concerns about supply and the narrowing of the spread between old local government bonds and old Treasury bonds [5][21] - For Tier 2 capital bonds and perpetual bonds, continuous buying is the key to the continuation of the market. Buying may come from dividend insurance and "fixed income +" accounts. However, for large institutional investors, the attractiveness of perpetual bonds is limited compared to equities at current levels. The allocation strength of "fixed income +" funds needs to be monitored [6][21]

证券研究报告·固定收益·固收周报 固收周报 20260118 周观：结构性降息后，债市将如何表现？ （2026 年第 3 期） [Table_Summary] [Table_Summary] 观点 ◼ 如何理解结构性降息和"今年降准降息还有一定空间"？本周 （2026.1.12-2026.1.16），10 年期国债活跃券收益率从上周五的 1.886% 下行 4.3bp 至本周五的 1.843%。周度复盘：周一（1.12），早盘财政对个 人消费贷和小微贷进行贴息的消息令债市情绪偏空，利率小幅上行。股 市开盘后有所下跌加之资金保持宽松，债市有所修复。随后股市明显上 涨，但国债期货走势也较强带动现券走强，出现"股债双牛"，全天 10 年期国债活跃券收益率下行 1.5bp。周二（1.13），今日有 6000 亿元买断 式逆回购到期，但央行并未提前按照惯例公布续作信息，债市对于资金 面情绪谨慎，令利率上行。午后关于买断式逆回购将放量续作的预期发 酵，带动利率修复式下行，全天 10 年期国债活跃券收益率下行 1.1bp。 周三（1.14），早盘资金面收紧，股市大涨，叠加进出口数据较强，均对 债市构成压制，利率出现上行。午 ...

固定收益周报 税期来临，关注央行投放情况 核心结论 债券市场： 1、央行净投放，资金利率先上后下。收益率震荡下行、波动加大。 2、30Y国债周换手率回落至37%，30Y-10Y国债利差走阔3.7bp至46bp；银行 间杠杆率小幅降至108.1%；中长期纯债型基金久期中位数回升、分歧度下降。 3、本周同业存单净偿还额环比增加，平均发行利率上升。下周国债、地方 债发行规模均增加。 经济数据：12月进出口高位收官，社融增速小幅回落，居民信贷仍偏弱；1 月以来，，地产成交有所改善，汽车消费表现偏弱。 受缴准日及买断式延期投放影响，周内资金价格先上后下。本周周一至周三 资金连续收敛，一方面周三为商业银行例行缴准日，另一方面周二 6000 亿 元买断式逆回购到期，央行并未立即续作，市场一度猜测买断式投放推迟是 否意味着降准即将到来。周二、周三资金利率显著上行，同时中小行资金情 绪指数也升至 59，创 2025 年 11 月以来新高。随着周三晚间央行公告 1 月 15 日将开展 9000 亿元 6 个月期买断式逆回购操作，叠加央行持续净投放以 及结构性工具降息落地，资金紧张情绪逐步缓解。 下周资金面存在阶段性压力。一是，下 ...

美国财政部最新数据显示，中国持有的美债规模降至6826亿美元，创下自2008年金融危机以来的最低水平，而与全球趋势背道 而驰的这一举动，反映着一种深思熟虑的战略调整。 美国财政部最新数据显示，2025年11月，中国持有的美国国债环比减少61亿美元，至6826亿美元 这一数字创下了自2008年9月以来的最低水平，标志着中国持有的美债规模回到了2008年金融危机时期的水平 美国财政部当地时间1月15日发布的数据显示，2025年11月，外国投资者持有的美国国债总额增加了1128亿美元，达到了创纪 录的9.355万亿美元 中国持有的美国国债规模为6826亿美元，这是自2008年9月以来的最低水平 与此同时，全球主要经济体对美债的需求却在增加。日本作为最大持有国，已连续11个月增持美债，规模增至1.202万亿美元 英国则取代中国成为美债第二大持有国，其持仓增加了106亿美元，达到8885亿美元 2000年以来，中国持有美债的数量呈现出明显的阶段性特征。 中国持有美债的历史变化趋势： | 时间段 | 中国持有美债情况 | 全球背景与关键事件 | | --- | --- | --- | | 2000年 | 仅714亿美元 ...

21世纪经济报道 记者 崔文静 北京报道 2026年伊始，中国债券市场在复杂的内外环境中探寻"固本拓新"之路。 在1月16日于北京举行的"固本·拓新—2026年债券市场年度论坛"上，与会者研判，全球正步入一个以"脆弱的增长"为特征的新阶段，贸易格局 剧变、金融风险上升与货币体系演变构成外部主要压力。 而2026年国内债券市场将承载更为关键的使命——在"低利率深化"的环境中，通过财政货币政策更成熟的协同、融资结构的深刻转变以及 对"投资于人"战略的适应，为经济韧性提供核心金融支撑。 市场机构则需在震荡市中寻找新的平衡，从"持有到期"转向"交易驱动"，并借助"固收+"等多元化策略破局。 从规模到结构：中国债务管理的空间与韧性转型 论坛上，中国国际经济交流中心资深专家委员、IMF原副总裁朱民将2026年的全球经济图景定调为"脆弱的增长"。他指出，尽管人工智能投资 与全球央行降息预期提供了积极动力，但增长持续放缓、全球贸易格局深刻变化、美元信用下降等构成了脆弱性来源。 朱民特别强调，特朗普的贸易政策将从2026年起对全球贸易产生实质性冲击，全球贸易可能进入低增长甚至零增长阶段。与此同时，全球政府 债务高企，利息支出压 ...

Core Insights - The bond market has not yet formed a clear main line, and a short-term strategy of "watching stocks while trading bonds" for wave trading is theoretically feasible but has significant practical limitations. It may be advisable to consider strategies from the equity market in similar environments, such as moderately increasing allocations to credit bonds with higher coupon protection to withstand potential market volatility [1][2][3] Group 1: Current Stock and Bond Market Analysis - The Shanghai Composite Index halted its strong upward trend after achieving seventeen consecutive days of gains, with a notable pullback on January 13 and a significant rebound on January 14, closing at 4101.91 points on January 16, temporarily holding above the 4100-point mark [1][12][14] - The underlying reasons for the recent adjustments in the equity market include a high slope of the index's rise post-New Year, leading to profit-taking motives among investors. Additionally, an external trigger was the announcement on January 14 to raise the minimum margin ratio for margin trading from 80% to 100%, which negatively impacted investor sentiment [1][14][15] - The bond market has exhibited a narrow range of fluctuations since Q4 2025, with the 10-year government bond yield primarily oscillating between 1.80% and 1.90%. This behavior is attributed to the lack of a clear main line in the bond market, resulting in a "passive following" of equity and commodity market trends [2][18][22] Group 2: Investment Strategy in the Current Market - In the absence of a clear trading main line, asset pricing is increasingly driven by short-term emotions, liquidity, and events, making it more challenging to determine price direction and limiting the risk-reward ratio of investments. Frequent trading can accumulate high friction costs and may amplify net value drawdowns due to misjudgments [4][23] - The report suggests anchoring investment goals to achieve more certain returns and actively reducing unnecessary trading frequency as a rational choice to adapt to the current market state. Drawing from the successful experience of dividend strategies in the weak equity market from 2021 to 2024, the focus should shift from chasing short-term price fluctuations to relying on stable cash flows to build a safety net for returns [4][24][25] - In the current weak and volatile bond market, it is recommended to moderately increase allocations to credit bonds with higher coupon protection to mitigate potential market fluctuations. Continuing to bet on wave trading essentially involves gambling in a "red ocean" with low win rates and low odds, which is susceptible to emotional fluctuations and rhythm misjudgments [5][27]

Group 1 - The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury rose by 5.75 basis points to 4.2269%, with a cumulative increase of 5.96 basis points for the week [1] - The 2-year U.S. Treasury yield increased by 3.03 basis points to 3.5945%, with a weekly rise of 6.24 basis points following President Trump's comments on the likelihood of White House advisor Hassett becoming the Federal Reserve Chairman [1] - The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield climbed by 3.96 basis points to 4.8355%, with a total weekly increase of 2.24 basis points [1] Group 2 - The yield spread between the 2-year and 10-year U.S. Treasuries increased by 2.723 basis points to +62.833 basis points, with a weekly decline of 0.285 basis points [1] - The yield on the 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) rose by 2.16 basis points to 1.8813% for the week [1] - The 2-year TIPS yield increased by 0.62 basis points to 1.0411%, while the 30-year TIPS yield rose by 0.41 basis points to 2.5822% [1]