Group 1 - The global copper market is experiencing significant price increases due to multiple supply disruptions and rising institutional price forecasts, with copper prices up 20% year-to-date [1] - The London Metal Exchange three-month copper price rose 2% to $10,409 per ton, continuing a trend of over 2% increase from the previous week, while the US Comex October contract increased by 2.6% to $4.841 per pound, marking the best settlement price since July 30 [1] - Major supply disruptions include a long-term production cut at Freeport-McMoRan's second-largest copper mine due to a landslide, and production halts at Chile's El Teniente mine and Congo's Kamoa copper mine due to accidents, exacerbating market concerns over supply shortages [1] Group 2 - Several Wall Street institutions have raised their copper price forecasts based on supply shortage expectations, with JPMorgan significantly increasing its Q4 LME copper price forecast from $9,350 per ton to $11,000, anticipating a supply shortfall exceeding 200,000 tons [2] - Bank of America has raised its 2026 copper price forecast by 11% to $11,313 per ton, and its 2027 forecast by 12.5% to $13,501 per ton, reflecting a bullish outlook on copper prices [2] - Goldman Sachs revised its annual supply gap expectation from a surplus of 10,500 tons to a shortage of 5,500 tons, indicating a complete reversal in supply-demand balance, while predicting December copper prices to fluctuate between $10,200 and $10,500 per ton [2]

Group 1 - The article highlights that a leading wind power and marine equipment company has a market share of 25% in Europe and an export gross margin exceeding 30%, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of only 13.9 times, indicating significant undervaluation due to three expected discrepancies identified by institutions [1] - There is a major disturbance in the copper mining sector, with analysts issuing a strong call for a warning of a 400,000-ton reduction in copper production, suggesting a turning point in the supply-demand balance and indicating that it is an opportune time to invest in quality mining companies [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - The Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia declared force majeure due to a mudslide accident, and the 2026 production target was lowered, increasing the expectation of a global copper mine supply shortage [4]. - The opening of the Fed's interest - rate cut cycle has pushed down the US dollar, and the continuously low global visible inventory has intensified the market's panic - buying sentiment [4]. - Downstream buyers are highly reluctant to buy at high prices. Orders from the home appliance and photovoltaic sectors are weak. The operating rate of copper strip production is only 65.87%, and the pre - holiday inventory replenishment is less than expected [4]. - The opening of the import window has led to an increase in domestic social inventory. Policy adjustments for recycled copper have increased smelting cost pressure, and the demand side has insufficient purchasing power [4]. - The mining accident has driven the strong breakthrough of Shanghai copper futures. The short - term supply - demand contradiction has intensified, supporting the price to run strongly. However, one should be wary of the suppression of demand by high prices and the risk of inventory accumulation [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Copper Futures Market Data (Weekly) - The latest price of Shanghai Copper Main Contract is 82,470 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 3.2%. The position is 229,050, and the weekly increase in position is 112,498. The trading volume is 174,625 [6]. - The latest price of Shanghai Copper Index - weighted is 82,451 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 3.23%. The position is 546,016, and the weekly increase in position is 66,985. The trading volume is 314,453 [6]. - The latest price of International Copper is 73,190 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 3.36%. The position is 2,621, and the weekly decrease in position is 1,877. The trading volume is 5,553 [6]. - The latest price of LME Copper 3 - month is $10,275.5/ton, with a weekly increase of 3.31%. The position is 239,014, and the weekly decrease in position is 38,282. The trading volume is 42,366 [6]. - The latest price of COMEX Copper is $478.85/ton, with a weekly increase of 4.1%. The position is 131,374, and the weekly increase in position is 7,842. The trading volume is 65,306 [6]. 3.2 Copper Spot Market Data (Weekly) - The latest price of Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 Copper is 82,485 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 2,495 yuan and a weekly increase rate of 3.12% [10]. - The latest price of Shanghai Wumaomao is 82,510 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 2,540 yuan and a weekly increase rate of 3.18% [10]. - The latest price of Guangdong Southern Reserve is 82,590 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 2,560 yuan and a weekly increase rate of 3.2% [11]. - The latest price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous is 82,660 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 2,550 yuan and a weekly increase rate of 3.18% [11]. - The latest price of Shanghai Non - ferrous premium/discount is - 5 yuan/ton, with a weekly decrease of 75 yuan and a weekly decrease rate of 107.14% [11]. - The latest price of Shanghai Wumaomao premium/discount is - 10 yuan/ton, with a weekly decrease of 60 yuan and a weekly decrease rate of 120% [11]. - The latest price of Guangdong Southern Reserve premium/discount is - 15 yuan/ton, with a weekly decrease of 55 yuan and a weekly decrease rate of 137.5% [11]. - The latest price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous premium/discount is 75 yuan/ton, with a weekly decrease of 50 yuan and a weekly decrease rate of 40% [11]. - The latest price of LME Copper (spot/3 - month) premium/discount is - $31.55/ton, with a weekly increase of $39.54 and a weekly decrease rate of 55.62% [11]. - The latest price of LME Copper (3 - month/15 - month) premium/discount is - $39.98/ton, with a weekly increase of $120.3 and a weekly decrease rate of 75.06% [11]. 3.3 Advanced Copper Data (Weekly) - The latest copper import profit and loss is - 675.54 yuan/ton, with a weekly decrease of 679.42 yuan and a weekly decrease rate of 17,510.82% [12]. - The latest copper concentrate TC is - $40.65/ton, with a weekly increase of $0.75 and a weekly decrease rate of 1.81% [12]. - The latest copper - aluminum ratio is 3.9841, with a weekly increase of 0.1516 and a weekly increase rate of 3.96% [12]. - The latest refined - scrap copper price difference is 3,010.53 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 1,258.4 yuan and a weekly increase rate of 71.82% [12]. 3.4 Copper Inventory (Weekly) - The total Shanghai Copper warehouse receipts are 26,557 tons, with a weekly decrease of 5,281 tons and a weekly decrease rate of 16.59% [17]. - The total International Copper warehouse receipts are 8,373 tons, with a weekly increase of 1,878 tons and a weekly increase rate of 28.91% [17]. - The Shanghai Copper inventory is 98,779 tons, with a weekly decrease of 7,035 tons and a weekly decrease rate of 6.65% [17]. - The LME Copper registered warehouse receipts are 133,025 tons, with a weekly decrease of 2,400 tons and a weekly decrease rate of 1.77% [17]. - The LME Copper cancelled warehouse receipts are 11,400 tons, with a weekly decrease of 2,050 tons and a weekly decrease rate of 15.24% [20]. - The LME Copper inventory is 144,425 tons, with a weekly decrease of 4,450 tons and a weekly decrease rate of 2.99% [20]. - The COMEX Copper registered warehouse receipts are 148,567 tons, with a weekly decrease of 942 tons and a weekly decrease rate of 0.63% [20]. - The COMEX Copper unregistered warehouse receipts are 172,489 tons, with a weekly increase of 6,792 tons and a weekly increase rate of 4.1% [20]. - The COMEX Copper inventory is 321,056 tons, with a weekly increase of 5,850 tons and a weekly increase rate of 1.86% [20]. - The copper mine port inventory is 58.3 million tons, with a weekly increase of 0.9 million tons and a weekly increase rate of 1.57% [20]. - The social inventory is 41.82 million tons, with a weekly increase of 0.43 million tons and a weekly increase rate of 1.04% [20]. 3.5 Copper Mid - stream Production (Monthly) - In August 2025, the monthly output of refined copper was 1.301 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.8%. The cumulative output was 9.891 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.1% [23]. - In August 2025, the monthly output of copper products was 2.222 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.8%. The cumulative output was 16.598 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.7% [23]. 3.6 Copper Mid - stream Capacity Utilization (Monthly) - In August 2025, the capacity utilization rate of refined copper rods was 63.02%, with a monthly increase of 1.7% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.11%. The total annual capacity is 15.84 million tons [25]. - In August 2025, the capacity utilization rate of scrap copper rods was 24.81%, with a monthly decrease of 1.92% and a year - on - year increase of 4.21%. The total annual capacity is 8.19 million tons [25]. - In August 2025, the capacity utilization rate of copper strips was 64.72%, with a monthly decrease of 1.01% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.98%. The total annual capacity is 3.59 million tons [25]. - In August 2025, the capacity utilization rate of copper bars was 49.86%, with a monthly decrease of 0.59% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.88%. The total annual capacity is 2.2865 million tons [25]. - In August 2025, the capacity utilization rate of copper tubes was 62.55%, with a monthly decrease of 5.33% and a year - on - year increase of 4.21%. The total annual capacity is 2.783 million tons [25]. 3.7 Copper Element Imports (Monthly) - In August 2025, the monthly import volume of copper concentrates was 2.759295 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7%. The cumulative import volume was 20.07674 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8% [29]. - In August 2025, the monthly import volume of anode copper was 61,712 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 18%. The cumulative import volume was 528,637 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 13% [29]. - In August 2025, the monthly import volume of cathode copper was 263,049 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5%. The cumulative import volume was 2,206,092 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5% [29]. - In August 2025, the monthly import volume of scrap copper was 179,360 tons, a year - on - year increase of 6%. The cumulative import volume was 1,514,842 tons, with no year - on - year change [29]. - In August 2025, the monthly import volume of copper products was 430,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.6%. The cumulative import volume was 3,540,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.1% [29].

9月26日（周五），阿根廷经济部长周五Luis Caputo表示，阿根廷已批准加拿大McEwen铜业公司（McEwen Copper）在该国27亿美元的Los Azules铜矿项 目，用于该国RIGI（大型投资促进计划）税收减免计划。 Los Azules矿是RIGI税收减免计划批准的第八个项目，根据该国总统Javier Milei推动的激励计划，总投资157亿美元。 市场人士称，McEwen铜业预计未来四年Los Azules铜矿项目总投资将达30亿美元。该公司现在必须为该项目寻求融资。 McEwen计划自2029年开始在阿根廷生产阴极铜，并应很快公布一份可行性研究报告，显示未来20年的运营细节同时努力获得监管当局的许可。 该矿将采用浸出工艺提取铜，而非传统的浮选法，该公司预计这将使其用水量减少六分之五，并减少对当地居民的影响。 McEwen持有Los Azules铜矿46.4%的股份，汽车制造商Stellantis持有18.3%的股份。 （文华综合） 阿根廷的?RIGI?是该国政府为吸引重大投资、增强竞争力而推出的政策工具，主要针对矿业、能源、基础设施等领域，提供税收、关税及外汇等优惠。 Luis Cap ...

印尼矿业部长周五表示，政府与自由港印尼公司达成协议，暂停该矿运营，以优先搜寻被困工人，证实 了自由港麦克莫兰公司此前发布的消息。 9月26日（周五），伦敦金属交易所（LME）铜价周五下跌，本周稍早全球第二大铜矿发生事故后出现 的供应担忧推动价格大涨，影响了需求。 伦敦时间9月26日17:00(北京时间9月27日00:00)，三个月期铜收盘下跌78.00美元，或0.76%，报每吨 10,181.50美元。 | | 9月26日LIE基本金属收盘报价(美元/吨) | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 我屋 | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | 三个月期铜 | 10181.50 | +-78.00 | -0.76% | | 三个月期铝 | 2655. 50 | +-3.00 | -0. 11% | | 三个月期锌 | 2888. 50 | +-38.00 | +-1. 30% | | 三个月期铅 | 2002. 50 | +-13.00 | -0.65% | | 三个月期镍 | 15175.00 | +-104.00 | +-0.68% | | 三个月期锡 | 34503.00 | ...

9月26日再生57-3黄铜棒(贵溪)价格指数为54485元/吨，上涨107元/吨，涨幅0.2%。 （9月26日）全国铜价格一览表 | 规格 | 品牌/产 | 报价 | 报价类 | 交货 | 交易商 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 地 | | 型 | 地 | | | 品名:1#电解铜 ;牌号:标准阴极铜Cu | 上海华 | 82485元/ | 市场价 | 上海 | 上海华通有色金属现货市 | | CATH-2 ; | 通 | 吨 | | | 场 | | 品名:1#电解铜 ;牌号:标准阴极铜Cu | 广东南 | 82580元/ | 市场价 | 上海 | 广东南储有色现货市场 | | CATH-2 ; | 储 | 吨 | | | | | 品名:1#电解铜 ;牌号:标准阴极铜Cu | 上海有 | 82510元/ | 市场价 | 上海 | 上海有色金属交易中心 | | CATH-2 ; | 色 | 吨 | | | | 【市场资讯】 自由港麦克莫兰公司周三宣布格拉斯伯格矿场遭遇不可抗力，预计第三季度铜、金综合销量将下滑。声 明称，这座全球最大金银铜矿之一或将于202 ...

Group 1 - The new mining minister of the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Louis Watum, revealed that the country loses approximately 60 tons of gold annually due to smuggling, valued at over $7 billion [1] - Watum is advocating for the establishment of new gold mining bases and is currently in negotiations for several deals, with some expected to be announced soon [1] - The international gold price has recently surged, with spot gold nearing $3,800 per ounce and COMEX futures surpassing $3,800, indicating a potential for increased revenue from gold resources in the DRC [1] Group 2 - Watum is engaging in dialogue with major copper and cobalt miners, including Glencore, Eurasian Resources Group, and China Molybdenum, to resolve historical disputes [2] - Discussions are ongoing regarding new cobalt export quotas and the development of lithium assets, aiming to attract companies like Zijin Mining, AVZ Minerals, and KoBold Metals [2] - The DRC is attempting to transform its mineral resources into sustainable economic benefits while addressing historical mining disputes and promoting long-term stability in the mining sector [2]

Commodities Research 25 September 2025 | 10:00AM SGT Eoin Dinsmore +65-6889-2401 | eoin.dinsmore@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Singapore) Pte Base Metals Comment: Copper: Grasberg Outage Knocks 1% Off 2026 Global Mine Supply Aurelia Waltham +44(20)7051-2547 | aurelia.waltham@gs.com Goldman Sachs International Lavinia Forcellese +44(20)7774-9243 | lavinia.forcellese@gs.com Goldman Sachs International Daan Struyven +1(212)357-4172 | daan.struyven@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Samantha Dart +1(212)357-9428 | samantha ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Company and Industry Overview - **Company**: Freeport-McMoRan and Vale S.A. (淡水河谷) - **Industry**: Copper and Iron Ore Mining Core Insights and Arguments Freeport-McMoRan (Grasberg Mine Incident) - The Grasberg mine incident resulted in a production halt, with an expected copper output reduction of over 200,000 tons in 2025 and nearly 300,000 tons in 2026. Even after full recovery in 2027, there will still be a reduction of at least 100,000 tons [1][4][5] - The incident revealed potential technical or design flaws in underground mining, with repair costs estimated to exceed $1 billion. This, combined with a copper concentrate export ban and uncertainties in contract negotiations, poses multiple challenges for the company [1][5][10] - The Grasberg mine, being the second-largest copper mine globally, contributes significantly to Freeport's production, accounting for over 40% of its copper output in 2025 [4][5] - The copper price is expected to remain strong due to global supply tightness exacerbated by the incident, with LME copper prices hovering between $9,000 and $10,000 [6][10] Vale S.A. (Iron Ore Projects) - Vale's Caparema project has restarted, adding 15 million tons of iron ore capacity annually, with production costs below $20 per ton, enhancing the company's profitability [1][11] - The company has received operational permits for the Ceris expansion project, which will double copper production by 2035, indicating a significant business transformation and valuation enhancement [1][13] - Vale has launched a new iron ore product with 63% iron content, improving product flexibility and benefiting from reduced pricing impacts due to silica impurities [1][14] Financial Guidance and Shareholder Returns - Vale has lowered its 2025 capital expenditure guidance to $5.4-$5.7 billion, driven by strong free cash flow and a focus on shareholder returns, including potential stock buybacks or special dividends if net debt falls below $10 billion [2][17] Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The copper mining industry faces increasing operational risks and challenges due to the rising proportion of underground mining, which is inherently riskier than open-pit mining [7][8] - The iron ore market remains robust, with strong demand from domestic steel mills despite production cut announcements, and the potential for price stability above $90 per ton through 2026 [16] Other Important Insights - The Grasberg incident has raised concerns about the relationship between Freeport and the Indonesian government, particularly regarding the renewal of operational contracts and export permits [9][10] - The ongoing challenges in the copper market, including the impact of recent mining accidents, highlight the need for companies to adapt to a changing operational landscape [6][7][10]

中信证券认为，近三年国内铜矿板块PE长期运行在10—15x，今年以来板块持续提升估值，与供给增速 下滑、国内需求强劲有密切关系。展望后市，国内铜矿板块在盈利和估值两方面将迎来持续共振：1） 年内供需进一步改善为盾，旺季效应和宏观暖风为矛，2025年三季度至四季度铜价有望冲击10500美元/ 吨，预计铜价中枢上移将促进企业盈利预期改善；2）对供给短缺与需求成长的感知差异导致海内外板 块估值悬殊，预计未来供需认知改善以及铜价上台阶将驱动国内估值继续提升至15—20x。 华鑫证券认为，铜矿再现扰动，需求旺季还未启动。此前，9月8日因事故停产的印尼Grasberg矿山本周 仍处于暂停状态，铜矿供应紧张的担忧仍然持续。需求方面，虽然电线电缆开工率环比再度走弱，但是 精炼铜制杆开工率环比升约3个百分点，需求相对平稳。目前铜需求旺季未启动，但是供应扰动再起， 预计铜价将走强。 印尼格拉斯伯格矿区运营方、美国矿业巨头自由港-麦克莫兰铜金公司正式宣布，因山体滑坡导致矿 难，该矿区遭遇"不可抗力"，预计今年第三季度铜销售额将因此下滑，全面复工时间推迟至2026年上半 年。受一系列消息影响，自由港-麦克莫兰铜金公司股价24日收盘大 ...