Core Viewpoint - Southern Copper Corporation (SCCO.US) experienced a rise of over 4%, reaching $122.25, due to significant disruptions in global copper production caused by natural disasters [1] Group 1: Copper Production Disruptions - Freeport's Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia suffered severe damage from a landslide, leading to an expected 35% decrease in copper output by 2026, which is a reduction of 270,000 tons from previous plans [1] - The Kamoa-Kakula copper mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo faced a 150,000-ton reduction in output due to seismic activity [1] - Chile's state-owned Codelco's El Teniente copper mine also halted production due to a collapse incident [1] Group 2: Market Conditions and Trends - According to data from Zhonghang Futures, the copper concentrate spot treatment charge (TC) for Q3 2025 is expected to remain in a deep negative range of -$40 per ton, marking a historical low [1] - Despite a year-on-year increase of 14.8% in domestic refined copper production to 1.301 million tons in August, planned maintenance for 10 smelting plants from September to October is anticipated to reduce output by 14,000 tons month-on-month [1] - The tightening supply at the mining level is gradually affecting the refined copper supply [1]

Core Viewpoint - Southern Copper Corporation (SCCO.US) shares rose over 4% to $122.25 amid global copper production disruptions due to force majeure events [1] Group 1: Copper Production Disruptions - Recent incidents have severely impacted global copper mining, including a landslide at Freeport's Grasberg mine in Indonesia, which is expected to reduce copper output by approximately 35% by 2026, a decrease of 270,000 tons from previous plans [1] - The Kamoa-Kakula copper mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo has experienced a 150,000-ton reduction in output due to seismic activity [1] - Chile's state-owned Codelco's El Teniente mine has halted production due to a collapse incident [1] Group 2: Market Conditions and Trends - According to data from Zhonghang Futures, the copper concentrate spot treatment charge (TC) for Q3 2025 remains in a deep negative range of -$40 per ton, marking a historical low [1] - Despite a 14.8% year-on-year increase in refined copper production in China in August to 1.301 million tons, planned maintenance for 10 smelting plants from September to October is expected to reduce output by 14,000 tons month-on-month, indicating a tightening supply from the mining sector to refined copper [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - The Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia declared force majeure due to a mudslide accident, and the 2026 production target was lowered, increasing the expectation of a global copper mine supply shortage [4]. - The opening of the Fed's interest - rate cut cycle has pushed down the US dollar, and the continuously low global visible inventory has intensified the market's panic - buying sentiment [4]. - Downstream buyers are highly reluctant to buy at high prices. Orders from the home appliance and photovoltaic sectors are weak. The operating rate of copper strip production is only 65.87%, and the pre - holiday inventory replenishment is less than expected [4]. - The opening of the import window has led to an increase in domestic social inventory. Policy adjustments for recycled copper have increased smelting cost pressure, and the demand side has insufficient purchasing power [4]. - The mining accident has driven the strong breakthrough of Shanghai copper futures. The short - term supply - demand contradiction has intensified, supporting the price to run strongly. However, one should be wary of the suppression of demand by high prices and the risk of inventory accumulation [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Copper Futures Market Data (Weekly) - The latest price of Shanghai Copper Main Contract is 82,470 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 3.2%. The position is 229,050, and the weekly increase in position is 112,498. The trading volume is 174,625 [6]. - The latest price of Shanghai Copper Index - weighted is 82,451 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 3.23%. The position is 546,016, and the weekly increase in position is 66,985. The trading volume is 314,453 [6]. - The latest price of International Copper is 73,190 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 3.36%. The position is 2,621, and the weekly decrease in position is 1,877. The trading volume is 5,553 [6]. - The latest price of LME Copper 3 - month is $10,275.5/ton, with a weekly increase of 3.31%. The position is 239,014, and the weekly decrease in position is 38,282. The trading volume is 42,366 [6]. - The latest price of COMEX Copper is $478.85/ton, with a weekly increase of 4.1%. The position is 131,374, and the weekly increase in position is 7,842. The trading volume is 65,306 [6]. 3.2 Copper Spot Market Data (Weekly) - The latest price of Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 Copper is 82,485 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 2,495 yuan and a weekly increase rate of 3.12% [10]. - The latest price of Shanghai Wumaomao is 82,510 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 2,540 yuan and a weekly increase rate of 3.18% [10]. - The latest price of Guangdong Southern Reserve is 82,590 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 2,560 yuan and a weekly increase rate of 3.2% [11]. - The latest price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous is 82,660 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 2,550 yuan and a weekly increase rate of 3.18% [11]. - The latest price of Shanghai Non - ferrous premium/discount is - 5 yuan/ton, with a weekly decrease of 75 yuan and a weekly decrease rate of 107.14% [11]. - The latest price of Shanghai Wumaomao premium/discount is - 10 yuan/ton, with a weekly decrease of 60 yuan and a weekly decrease rate of 120% [11]. - The latest price of Guangdong Southern Reserve premium/discount is - 15 yuan/ton, with a weekly decrease of 55 yuan and a weekly decrease rate of 137.5% [11]. - The latest price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous premium/discount is 75 yuan/ton, with a weekly decrease of 50 yuan and a weekly decrease rate of 40% [11]. - The latest price of LME Copper (spot/3 - month) premium/discount is - $31.55/ton, with a weekly increase of $39.54 and a weekly decrease rate of 55.62% [11]. - The latest price of LME Copper (3 - month/15 - month) premium/discount is - $39.98/ton, with a weekly increase of $120.3 and a weekly decrease rate of 75.06% [11]. 3.3 Advanced Copper Data (Weekly) - The latest copper import profit and loss is - 675.54 yuan/ton, with a weekly decrease of 679.42 yuan and a weekly decrease rate of 17,510.82% [12]. - The latest copper concentrate TC is - $40.65/ton, with a weekly increase of $0.75 and a weekly decrease rate of 1.81% [12]. - The latest copper - aluminum ratio is 3.9841, with a weekly increase of 0.1516 and a weekly increase rate of 3.96% [12]. - The latest refined - scrap copper price difference is 3,010.53 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 1,258.4 yuan and a weekly increase rate of 71.82% [12]. 3.4 Copper Inventory (Weekly) - The total Shanghai Copper warehouse receipts are 26,557 tons, with a weekly decrease of 5,281 tons and a weekly decrease rate of 16.59% [17]. - The total International Copper warehouse receipts are 8,373 tons, with a weekly increase of 1,878 tons and a weekly increase rate of 28.91% [17]. - The Shanghai Copper inventory is 98,779 tons, with a weekly decrease of 7,035 tons and a weekly decrease rate of 6.65% [17]. - The LME Copper registered warehouse receipts are 133,025 tons, with a weekly decrease of 2,400 tons and a weekly decrease rate of 1.77% [17]. - The LME Copper cancelled warehouse receipts are 11,400 tons, with a weekly decrease of 2,050 tons and a weekly decrease rate of 15.24% [20]. - The LME Copper inventory is 144,425 tons, with a weekly decrease of 4,450 tons and a weekly decrease rate of 2.99% [20]. - The COMEX Copper registered warehouse receipts are 148,567 tons, with a weekly decrease of 942 tons and a weekly decrease rate of 0.63% [20]. - The COMEX Copper unregistered warehouse receipts are 172,489 tons, with a weekly increase of 6,792 tons and a weekly increase rate of 4.1% [20]. - The COMEX Copper inventory is 321,056 tons, with a weekly increase of 5,850 tons and a weekly increase rate of 1.86% [20]. - The copper mine port inventory is 58.3 million tons, with a weekly increase of 0.9 million tons and a weekly increase rate of 1.57% [20]. - The social inventory is 41.82 million tons, with a weekly increase of 0.43 million tons and a weekly increase rate of 1.04% [20]. 3.5 Copper Mid - stream Production (Monthly) - In August 2025, the monthly output of refined copper was 1.301 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.8%. The cumulative output was 9.891 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.1% [23]. - In August 2025, the monthly output of copper products was 2.222 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.8%. The cumulative output was 16.598 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.7% [23]. 3.6 Copper Mid - stream Capacity Utilization (Monthly) - In August 2025, the capacity utilization rate of refined copper rods was 63.02%, with a monthly increase of 1.7% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.11%. The total annual capacity is 15.84 million tons [25]. - In August 2025, the capacity utilization rate of scrap copper rods was 24.81%, with a monthly decrease of 1.92% and a year - on - year increase of 4.21%. The total annual capacity is 8.19 million tons [25]. - In August 2025, the capacity utilization rate of copper strips was 64.72%, with a monthly decrease of 1.01% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.98%. The total annual capacity is 3.59 million tons [25]. - In August 2025, the capacity utilization rate of copper bars was 49.86%, with a monthly decrease of 0.59% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.88%. The total annual capacity is 2.2865 million tons [25]. - In August 2025, the capacity utilization rate of copper tubes was 62.55%, with a monthly decrease of 5.33% and a year - on - year increase of 4.21%. The total annual capacity is 2.783 million tons [25]. 3.7 Copper Element Imports (Monthly) - In August 2025, the monthly import volume of copper concentrates was 2.759295 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7%. The cumulative import volume was 20.07674 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8% [29]. - In August 2025, the monthly import volume of anode copper was 61,712 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 18%. The cumulative import volume was 528,637 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 13% [29]. - In August 2025, the monthly import volume of cathode copper was 263,049 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5%. The cumulative import volume was 2,206,092 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5% [29]. - In August 2025, the monthly import volume of scrap copper was 179,360 tons, a year - on - year increase of 6%. The cumulative import volume was 1,514,842 tons, with no year - on - year change [29]. - In August 2025, the monthly import volume of copper products was 430,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.6%. The cumulative import volume was 3,540,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.1% [29].

有色研究员 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 报告要点： 专题报告 2025-09-26 铜：矿山供应扰动加剧，铜价再次上行 吴坤金 9 月 24 日，自由港公司更新了有关 Grasberg 铜矿泥浆事故的最新信息。初步评估表明，随着 维修完成以及分阶段重启和运营的开始，这些影响可能会导致 2025 年第四季度和 2026 年生产 大幅推迟，有可能在 2027 年恢复到事故前的开工率。结合自由港公司此前的产量指引，2025 年自由港公司铜矿产量预计较 2024 年减少 26 万吨左右，2026 年产量也将明显低于此前增产 14 万吨的预期，变为仅微幅增加。 铜矿端供应扰动加大，叠加宏观氛围不差（黄金、白银等贵金属价格迭创新高）的背景下，铜 价有望延续较强的表现。同时，需要观察价格上涨后需求的变化，只要库存没有大幅增加，铜 价涨势延续的概率就更大。 有色金属研究 | 铜 铜：矿山供应扰动加剧，铜价再次上行 1、自由港更新印尼 Grasberg 铜矿运营信息，下调未来产量指引 9 月 8 日，自由港印尼 Grasberg 铜矿区块崩 ...

对于铜价走势，金瑞期货表示，短期供需走弱，预计延续紧平衡状态。展望后市，基于矿山扰动量级较 大，短期价格预计由转为偏强，重心上移，后续需持续关注其恢复进展。 沪铜夜盘高开高走，日内强势状态延续，期价最高触及82980元，刷新了今年3月底以来高点，收盘大涨 3.4%，国际铜大涨3.58%。自由港宣布印尼Grasberg矿遭遇不可抗力，并下调铜销量预测，矿端的脆弱 性继续凸显，原料端紧张的矛盾有所激化，铜价强势突破。 9月24日，Freeport就先前报告的印尼Grasberg Block Cave矿泥浆溃涌事故提供最新信息。表示由于该事 件及对运营的影响，印尼自由港正根据其合同条款通知商业对手方不可抗力情况，还下调了第三季度的 综合销售指引，其中铜下降了4%。另外，初步评估来看，按照当前的分段重启计划该矿有可能在2027 年恢复到事件前的运营率，印尼自由港2026年铜产量目标比事件发生前下调35%。这一消息令市场对于 本就紧张的全球铜矿供应担忧加重，引发了内外铜价的大涨。 （文华综合） ...

Summary of the Copper Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The global copper mining supply is tight, with major mining companies experiencing a decline in production in Q2 2025. The expected increase in copper mining for 2025 is only 200,000 to 300,000 tons, significantly lower than previous forecasts due to production declines from companies like ExxonMobil, First Quantum, and Glencore [2][3][4] - The demand for copper ore from overseas smelters is expected to increase significantly in the second half of 2025, driven by the resumption of operations at Freeport's Indonesian smelter and the reprocessing at Adani's smelter in India, intensifying the competition for ore [2][5] Key Points and Arguments - **Copper Supply and Demand Dynamics**: - The tight supply situation is exacerbated by production disruptions at major mines, with a projected supply gap of around 200,000 tons [3][4] - The LME copper market is experiencing a squeeze due to low inventory levels and aggressive trading strategies, providing strong support for copper prices [3][16] - **China's Smelting Industry**: - The TC long-term contract negotiations for Chinese smelters resulted in a rate of $0/ton, indicating significant profit pressure. However, the strong sulfuric acid prices and the use of scrap copper for anodes are expected to support production levels, with average monthly output projected to be slightly below 1.1 million tons in the second half of 2025 [6][7] - **Copper Consumption Trends in China**: - In April 2025, China's apparent copper consumption reached over 1.4 million tons, but fell to just above 1.3 million tons in May and June due to seasonal demand fluctuations. The annual demand growth is expected to be around 3%-4% [8][10] - The anticipated decline in photovoltaic demand and potential stagnation in exports could offset some of the growth, leading to a stable consumption model despite concerns about inventory accumulation [9][10][29] Additional Important Insights - **Recycling and Scrap Copper**: - The demand for recycled copper has increased significantly, with a 200,000-ton increase in recycled copper entering the smelting process from January to May 2025, which has helped mitigate the tight supply situation [12] - **Impact of U.S. Market on Global Copper Prices**: - The U.S. has seen a significant increase in refined copper imports, with a year-on-year increase of over 400,000 tons, leading to a "siphoning effect" on global copper supplies [13][19] - **Future Price Outlook**: - The copper market is currently characterized by strong fundamentals, with expectations of price stability or slight increases, despite potential short-term fluctuations [22][30] - **Macroeconomic Factors**: - Interest rate cuts could positively influence copper prices if they occur in a stable economic environment, reinforcing bullish sentiment in the market [21] This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call regarding the copper industry, highlighting supply constraints, demand dynamics, and the interplay between domestic and international markets.

Group 1: Market Overview - Copper prices have shown a narrow fluctuation since May, with market sentiment being cautious due to a tight supply from mines and weakening demand [2] - The macroeconomic environment lacks clear drivers, with potential tariff increases on copper following the U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum, causing temporary price spikes [3] - The U.S. economy shows signs of stability with improved GDP and employment data, but concerns over fiscal deficits and credit risks keep market sentiment cautious [3] Group 2: Supply Dynamics - Global copper mine production in March was 1.969 million tons, up 11.4% month-on-month and 3.68% year-on-year, with Chile's production at a four-year high [4] - Supply disruptions are noted, including a temporary halt in operations at the Kakula copper mine due to an earthquake, while other mines remain unaffected [4] - Domestic processing fees for copper remain low, with a recent figure of -$43.29 per ton, indicating ongoing supply tightness [5] Group 3: Production and Demand - Global refined copper production for January to March was 7.058 million tons, a 3.17% year-on-year increase, driven by growth in China, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and India [6] - China's electrolytic copper production in May reached 1.1383 million tons, a 12.86% year-on-year increase, but a decline in production is expected due to tight copper ore supply [6] - Demand from downstream sectors is weakening, with reduced operating rates in copper rod, pipe, and plate manufacturers, while cable manufacturers maintain higher rates due to existing orders [8] Group 4: Inventory and Pricing - LME copper inventory has decreased rapidly, with total stocks at 132,400 tons, raising concerns about short-term supply risks [7] - Domestic copper inventory is low, and the spot premium has decreased, indicating a tightening supply situation [9] - The market is experiencing a tug-of-war between tight supply and weakening demand, leading to expectations of continued price fluctuations in the short term [9]