Group 1: Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) - In November, the manufacturing PMI rose to 49.2%, indicating a slight improvement in economic conditions [2] - Both production index and new orders index improved, reaching 50.0% and 49.2% respectively, with production index crossing the critical point [2] - Small enterprises showed significant recovery with PMI at 49.1%, marking a 2.0 percentage point increase, the highest in six months [2][3] Group 2: Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index - The non-manufacturing business activity index decreased to 49.5%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in non-manufacturing economic conditions [4] - The service industry index fell to 49.5%, influenced by the end of holiday effects, while certain sectors like railway transport and financial services remained robust [5] - The construction industry index improved to 49.6%, with a business activity expectation index of 57.9%, reflecting increased confidence in the sector [5] Group 3: Comprehensive PMI Output Index - The comprehensive PMI output index fell to 49.7%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points, with manufacturing production index at 50.0% and non-manufacturing business activity index at 49.5% [6]

来源：招商宏观静思录 报告发布时间：2025年11月30日 事件 11月制造业PMI录得49.2，环比提高0.2；服务业PMI录得49.5，环比下滑0.7。建筑业PMI录得49.6，环 比提升0.5。综合PMI产出指数录得49.7，环比下降0.3。 核心观点 制造业PMI分项 - 2025-11 PMI -- 2025-10 55 PMI:从业人员 PMI:采购量 -· 2024-11 50 = PMI:产成品库存 PMI:生产 45 40 PMI:生产经营活动预 PM:原材料库存 35 期 30 PMI:新订单 PMI:新出口订单 PMI:在手订单 PMI:进口 PMI:供货商配送时间 PMI:出厂价格 PMI:主要原材料购进 价格 资料来源:Wind、招商证券 图 3:制造业主要行业的 PMI 变化趋势 中国:PMI:高技术制造业 ·中国:PM:装备制造业 中国:PMI:消费品行业 中国:PMI:基础原材料行业 54.00 52.00 50.00 48.00 46.00 44.00 42.00 11月制造业、建筑业PMI小幅回升，但依然位于荣枯线下方，特别是建筑业处在近五年同期最低水平， 另外11月服务消 ...

Manufacturing Sector - In November 2025, the Manufacturing PMI recorded 49.2%, a marginal increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating slight improvement in manufacturing activity[1] - The production index rose to 50.0%, reflecting stable production levels, with notable activity in food processing and non-ferrous metal industries[12] - New orders index increased by 0.4 percentage points to 49.2%, suggesting marginal recovery in market demand[12] - The raw material inventory index remained low at 47.3%, indicating cautious inventory strategies among enterprises[12] - Small enterprises' PMI rose to 49.1%, the highest in six months, while large enterprises' PMI fell to 49.3%, indicating greater pressure on larger firms[17] Non-Manufacturing Sector - The Non-Manufacturing PMI fell to 49.5%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, reflecting a decline in service sector activity[2] - The new orders index for non-manufacturing recorded 45.7%, indicating weak demand in the sector[22] - The business activity expectation index rose to 56.2%, suggesting optimism about medium to long-term market prospects driven by policy support and seasonal factors[3] Economic Outlook - Overall, the manufacturing sector remains below the 50% threshold, indicating ongoing contraction and economic downward pressure[5] - Rising raw material prices may increase cost pressures for mid and small-sized enterprises, necessitating caution regarding rapid cost increases[5] - Future recovery in manufacturing is anticipated to be supported by year-end policy implementations and improved external trade conditions[5]

Group 1: Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for November is reported at 49.2%, showing a 0.2 percentage point increase from the previous month, indicating an improvement in manufacturing sentiment [1] - Both the production index and new orders index have rebounded compared to last month, with the production index reaching the critical point, suggesting improvements in both production and demand [1] - High-tech manufacturing PMI has remained above the critical point for 10 consecutive months, indicating continued growth in related industries [1] Group 2: Small and Medium Enterprises - The PMI for small and medium-sized enterprises has shown varying degrees of recovery, with the small enterprise PMI reaching a six-month high, reflecting a notable improvement in their business conditions [1] Group 3: Market Expectations - The production and business activity expectation index has increased from the previous month, indicating enhanced confidence among manufacturing enterprises regarding recent market developments [3] - Industries such as non-ferrous metal smelting and processing, as well as railway, shipbuilding, and aerospace equipment, have business activity expectation indices above 57%, reflecting optimism in these sectors [3] Group 4: Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index for November is reported at 49.5%, with a slowdown in overall business activity due to seasonal declines in consumer-related services [5] - Financial activities have shown robust performance, and new momentum industries are operating steadily, with stable optimistic expectations among enterprises [4][9] - The non-manufacturing business activity expectation index is at 56.2%, marking a 0.1 percentage point increase from the previous month and remaining above 56% for two consecutive months [8] Group 5: Economic Outlook - The data indicates that enterprises maintain stable optimistic expectations for future non-manufacturing development, supported by ongoing policy measures and a year-end push in supply and demand, which is expected to release investment and consumption-related demand [9]

Manufacturing PMI Insights - In November 2025, China's manufacturing PMI rose to 49.2%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from October, aligning with market expectations[1] - The manufacturing new orders index increased by 0.4 percentage points to 49.2%, driven by the implementation of the "two 500 billion" growth stabilization policies[2] - The manufacturing production index rebounded to 50.0%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a return to non-contraction territory[3] Economic Factors - The recent "anti-involution" policies have led to a rise in raw material prices, with the main raw material price index increasing by 1.1 percentage points to 53.6%[4] - The production expectations index for manufacturing improved by 0.3 percentage points to 53.1%, reflecting a more optimistic outlook among manufacturers[5] - The construction PMI rose to 49.6%, up 0.5 percentage points, supported by the completion of 500 billion new policy financial tools[7] Service Sector Performance - The non-manufacturing business activity index fell to 49.5%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points, marking the first entry into contraction territory for the year[6] - The service sector's decline is attributed to weakened consumer demand and significant adjustments in the real estate market[6] Future Outlook - The overall macroeconomic environment remains stable but shows signs of weakness, with the comprehensive PMI output index falling below the equilibrium line for the first time this year[8] - Projections indicate a potential decline in the manufacturing PMI to around 49.1% in December, influenced by external trade pressures and ongoing adjustments in the real estate market[8]

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 11月28日，2025分析师大会暨第七届新浪财经"金麒麟"最佳分析师颁奖盛典隆重召开。浙商证券首席经 济学家、研究所联席所长李超团队获得宏观经济第一名。 "直挂云帆济沧海"，现场，李超用这句充满气势的表述，为2026年中国经济与资本市场定下乐观基调。 李超结合其首创的四层次分析框架，从宏观经济肌理、增长动力到市场机遇进行了系统解读，为投资者 勾勒出"十五五"开局之年的发展蓝图。 专题：2025分析师大会：资本市场"奥斯卡"！机构称A股迎全球资本涌入的大牛市 在他看来，市场的核心驱动力源自利率下行，2025年以来市场信心的持续提升，为流动性向资本市场的 传导扫清了障碍。随着2026年信心修复趋势的延续，利率下行的估值驱动效应将充分显现。 这一逻辑与国际市场经验高度契合。美国1984-2020年长达35年的利率下行周期中，股债双牛成为常 态，即便在经济复苏脆弱阶段，宽松货币环境仍支撑股市走高；日本2013-2019年实施大规模QE政策 后，也实现了利率下行背景下的股债双牛。中国当前的利率环境与信心修复节奏，正为复制这一逻辑创 造条件。 投资 ...

其次，代表新质生产力发展的高技术制造业PMI虽较上月下行0.4个百分点至50.1%，但行业景气度继续 保持在扩张区间，自2月以来持续处于荣枯线上方。 东方金诚研究发展部执行总监冯琳表示："在政策支持和市场需求较强带动下，高技术制造业不仅增速 领先，而且具备较强的抗冲击能力。" 最后，小型企业PMI明显回升，是本月数据的突出亮点之一。小型企业PMI为49.1%，比上月上升2.0个 百分点，为近6个月高点，景气水平显著改善。 对于小型企业PMI回升的原因，王鹏分析称："这反映政策精准支持（如减税降费、融资倾斜）效果逐 步显现，叠加下游消费需求回暖，低基数企业修复弹性更强。但需注意小型企业抗风险能力仍弱，成本 压力及需求恢复的持续性仍需观察。" 中国城市专家智库委员会常务副秘书长、浙大城市学院副教授林先平也指出，小型企业景气度的回升说 明普惠金融、减税降费等政策效果持续释放，市场活力被有效激发。这一变化有助于改善就业市场、增 强经济内生动能。 中经记者 谭志娟 北京报道 11月制造业景气水平有所改善。11月30日，国家统计局服务业调查中心和中国物流与采购联合会发布数 据显示，11月份制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为4 ...

11月，是很危险的一个月！ 这个月里，股市和黄金这两个前期涨幅很大的主要资产，都迎来急剧震荡。 股市中，最终还是走向了"盘久必跌"，上证指数从4000点一路下挫，勉强守住3800点。科技板块调整更大些， 科创50、科创100指数，期间最大跌幅都近10个点。 黄金呢，美联储降息预期急转弯，美元流动性突然收紧的利空砸向市场，伦敦金从4200美元/盎司的高位直线 跳水。 AI有泡沫！黄金有泡沫！ 这几个月里，市场关于"泡沫"的质疑与担忧越来越大。我们每个人的账户钱袋子，随时都有被快速压扁的可 能。 "危局"中央，外资巨头集体发声唱多中国，唱多黄金！ 对股市，当下大家最担忧的无非集中在3点上。 一是牛市持续时间似乎有点长了。 A股牛短熊长的调性，像一把悬在头顶的达摩克利斯之剑，让很多人对牛市"时长"的风险格外敏感。 如果从去年924行情算起，到现在，这轮牛市已经持续1年零2个月，加上前期4000点附近的盘整已经消耗大量 动能，当下确实不得不让人担心。 二是估值，这往往是泡沫论者最锋利、也最直观的武器。 当前上证指数、沪深300、中证1000指数，近5年PE历史百分位分别来到92.94%、80.78%、95.29%。 ...

Group 1: Manufacturing Sector Overview - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) in China for November is reported at 49.2%, showing a slight increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating an improvement in economic conditions [1] - The production index and new orders index for November are at 50.0% and 49.2%, respectively, with increases of 0.3 and 0.4 percentage points, suggesting a recovery in production and demand [1] - The new export orders index rose by 1.7 percentage points to 47.6%, marking the second highest point since April, reflecting strong resilience in exports [1] Group 2: Business Confidence and Expectations - The manufacturing production and business activity expectation index increased by 0.3 percentage points to 53.1%, indicating heightened confidence among manufacturers regarding market developments [2] - Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) showed significant improvement, with their PMIs rising to 49.1% and 48.9%, respectively, while large enterprises saw a decline to 49.3% [2] - High-tech manufacturing continues to expand, with a PMI of 50.1%, remaining above the critical point for ten consecutive months, demonstrating sustained growth in this sector [2] Group 3: Price Trends and Inventory Levels - The purchasing price index for major raw materials increased to 53.6%, while the factory price index rose to 48.2%, indicating a supportive environment for market prices due to improved supply and demand dynamics [3] - The procurement willingness index improved to 49.5%, reflecting a positive shift in purchasing behavior among enterprises [3] - The construction sector's business activity index rose to 49.6%, showing signs of recovery, although it remains below the threshold of expansion [3] Group 4: Service Sector Performance - The service sector's business activity index fell to 49.5%, a decrease of 0.7 percentage points, indicating a return to contraction territory [4] - The new orders index for the service sector dropped to 45.6%, highlighting pressure on demand and insufficient recovery momentum [4] - Despite short-term demand disruptions, the service sector's confidence remains supported, with expectations for recovery as policy benefits are realized [4]

Group 1: Manufacturing Sector Overview - In November, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.2%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating an improvement in economic conditions [1] - The production index and new orders index for November were 50.0% and 49.2%, respectively, rising by 0.3 and 0.4 percentage points, with the production index reaching the critical point [1] - The new export orders index increased by 1.7 percentage points to 47.6%, marking the second highest point since April of this year, reflecting strong resilience in exports [1] Group 2: Business Confidence and Expectations - The manufacturing production and business activity expectation index rose by 0.3 percentage points to 53.1%, indicating heightened confidence among manufacturers regarding market developments [2] - Large enterprises' PMI was 49.3%, down 0.6 percentage points, while medium and small enterprises' PMIs were 48.9% and 49.1%, up 0.2 and 2.0 percentage points, respectively, with small enterprises reaching a six-month high [2] - High-tech manufacturing maintained expansion with a PMI of 50.1%, remaining above the critical point for ten consecutive months, while equipment manufacturing and consumer goods sectors saw declines [2] Group 3: Price Trends and Inventory - In November, the purchasing price index and factory price index were 53.6% and 48.2%, respectively, both showing increases from the previous month [3] - The procurement willingness improved, with the procurement volume index at 49.5%, up 0.5 percentage points, while raw material inventory index remained stable at 47.3% [3] - The construction sector showed signs of steady recovery, with the business activity index at 49.6%, a slight increase of 0.5 percentage points, and new orders index rising to 46.1% [3] Group 4: Service Sector Performance - The service sector's business activity index fell to 49.5%, down 0.7 percentage points, indicating a return below the prosperity line [4] - The new orders index for the service sector dropped to 45.6%, reflecting insufficient recovery in market demand [4] - Despite short-term demand disruptions, the service sector's confidence remains supported, with expectations for recovery as policy benefits are released [4]