Core Insights - The upcoming holiday season is expected to boost retail sales significantly, contributing to major retailers' revenues [1] - Retail sales during November and December are projected to increase by 3.7% to 4.2%, reaching approximately $1.01 trillion to $1.02 trillion, marking the first time U.S. holiday sales are expected to exceed $1 trillion [2] - Economic concerns, including a federal government shutdown, may dampen sales growth, affecting consumer demand [3] Retail Sales Projections - Total holiday spending is anticipated to reach between $1.01 trillion and $1.02 trillion, with a year-over-year increase of 3.7% to 4.2% [2] - Last year's holiday sales were $976.1 billion, reflecting a 4.3% increase from the previous year [2] Economic Impact - The federal government shutdown is identified as a key headwind, potentially leading to a loss of private-sector income and impacting consumer spending patterns [3] - While some economic impacts are expected to be temporary, they may still influence consumer behavior during the holiday season [3] Government Funding Bill - The Senate passed a bill to fund the federal government through January, ending the longest shutdown in U.S. history, with a vote of 60-40 [4] - The bill will proceed to the House of Representatives for consideration before reaching the President for signature [5] Consumer Behavior Trends - Consumers are showing caution but remain fundamentally strong, with lower-income consumers prioritizing essential goods over non-essentials [6] - This trend may negatively impact sectors related to services, such as recreation and dining, while benefiting retail and discretionary ETFs [6] Online Shopping Insights - U.S. online sales are projected to reach $253.4 billion this holiday season, reflecting a 5.3% year-over-year growth [7] - Cyber Week is expected to account for 17.2% of overall spending, totaling $43.7 billion, with a 6.3% increase from the previous year [8] Investment Opportunities - The online shopping trend is likely to benefit ETFs focused on online retail, such as ProShares Online Retail ETF (ONLN) [8] - The "Buy Now Pay Later" trend is expected to drive an additional $2 billion in online spending, favoring iShares FinTech Active ETF (BPAY) [8] - The use of generative AI for shopping is anticipated to create investment opportunities in Roundhill Generative AI & Technology ETF (CHAT) [9]

What our travel columnist learned from a cross-country journey during a deluge of flight cancellations and delays https://t.co/LYL3iOslzi ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report covers various sectors in the Indian market, including Consumer Goods, Healthcare, Industrials, Internet, Natural Resources & Clean Tech, and Mobility. Company-Specific Insights Titan Co. (TITN.BO) - **Rating**: Buy - **Market Cap**: $38.06 billion - **Target Price**: $4,500, representing an 18% upside - **Growth**: Expected consolidated jewellery sales CAGR of ~18% and EBIT CAGR of ~23% from FY25-28, driven by market share gains from unorganized jewellers and strong growth in Caratlane and international business [9][9][9] Godrej Consumer Products Ltd. (GOCP.BO) - **Rating**: Buy - **Market Cap**: $12.99 billion - **Target Price**: $1,425, representing a 26% upside - **Earnings Growth**: Anticipated EBITDA CAGR of 13% from FY26E-28E, driven by market share gains in home insecticides and recovery in India margins due to price increases [13][13][13] Neuland Labs (NEUL.BO) - **Rating**: Buy - **Market Cap**: $2.62 billion - **Target Price**: $19,700, representing a 9% upside - **Market Potential**: Addressable market size of $100 billion in 2024, with expected growth at ~15% CAGR over the next five years [18][18][18] Piramal Pharma (PIRM.BO) - **Rating**: Buy - **Market Cap**: $2.91 billion - **Target Price**: $250, representing a 28% upside - **Profitability**: Expected to improve through operating and financial leverage, with a focus on CDMO recovery post-FY26 [21][23][23] Havells India (HVEL.BO) - **Rating**: Buy - **Market Cap**: $10.26 billion - **Target Price**: $1,740, representing a 19% upside - **Growth Drivers**: New capacity in cables and wires, consistent new product introductions, and management focus on solar products [29][29][29] InterGlobe Aviation Ltd. (INGL.BO) - **Rating**: Buy - **Market Cap**: $24.22 billion - **Target Price**: $6,000, representing a 7% upside - **Market Share**: Indigo's market share increased from 48% in Feb-20 to ~64.5% in Aug-25, with expectations of sustainable growth [34][34][34] PTC Industries (PCIN.BO) - **Rating**: Buy - **Market Cap**: $2.82 billion - **Target Price**: $24,725, representing a 43% upside - **Earnings Growth**: Expected revenue growth of >70% CAGR through FY30E, driven by aerospace-grade processed materials [40][42][42] Solar Industries (SLIN.BO) - **Rating**: Buy - **Market Cap**: $13.68 billion - **Target Price**: $18,215, representing a 36% upside - **Defense Business**: Expected rapid growth in defense business with significant order backlog [47][47][47] MakeMyTrip Ltd. (MMYT) - **Rating**: Buy - **Market Cap**: $7.3 billion - **Target Price**: $123, representing a 60.4% upside - **Growth Forecast**: Anticipated 19% revenue CAGR from FY25-30E, driven by online penetration and operating leverage [50][52][52] Eternal Ltd. (ETEA.BO) - **Rating**: Buy - **Market Cap**: $32.8 billion - **Target Price**: $390, representing a 29.4% upside - **Growth Profile**: Expected 90+% FY25-FY27E NOV CAGR, with strong margins in food delivery and quick commerce [57][57][57] Reliance Industries (RELI.BO) - **Rating**: Buy - **Market Cap**: $227.29 billion - **Target Price**: $1,795, representing a 21% upside - **Earnings Growth**: Expected EBITDA growth of 15% in FY26E, driven by strong refining margins and retail growth [60][62][62] NTPC Ltd. (NTPC.BO) - **Rating**: Buy - **Market Cap**: $35.6 billion - **Target Price**: $450, representing a 38.1% upside - **Market Position**: Anticipated rise in peak power deficit to positively impact valuation [65][65][65] Additional Insights - The report emphasizes the potential for significant growth across various sectors in India, driven by market share gains, new product introductions, and favorable macroeconomic conditions. - The focus on operating leverage and financial improvements across companies indicates a positive outlook for profitability in the medium term.

Summary of US Consumer Pulse Survey: November 10, 2025 Industry Overview - **Industry**: U.S. Consumer Market - **Survey**: Conducted by Morgan Stanley, Wave 70, involving ~2,000 consumers from October 30th to November 3rd, 2025 [2][25] Key Findings Consumer Confidence - **Economic Outlook**: - 33% of consumers expect the economy to improve in the next six months, down from 36% last month and 44% in January [6][8] - 49% expect the economy to worsen, up from 46% last month [6][8] - NET score for economic outlook is -16%, a decline from -10% last wave and +8% in January [6][8] - **Household Finances**: - 38% expect finances to improve, down from 40% last month [12][58] - 31% expect finances to worsen, up from 28% last month [12][58] - NET score for household finances is +6%, down from +12% last month and +23% in January [12][58] Spending Intentions - **Short-term Spending Outlook**: - 31% of consumers plan to spend more next month, while 18% plan to spend less, resulting in a NET of +13%, down from +17% last month and +21% last year [6][13] - Lower-income consumers are more affected by the pause of SNAP benefits, contributing to the decline in spending intentions [6][13] - **Long-term Spending Outlook**: - Decline observed across categories, similar to levels seen in April [14][82] - Prioritization of essentials like groceries and household supplies continues [82] Inflation and Political Concerns - **Inflation**: - Remains the top concern for 57% of consumers, slightly down from 61% last year [7][30] - **Political Environment**: - 45% of consumers cite the political environment as a concern, up from 42% last month [7][30] - Concerns about the ability to repay debts (21%) and pay for rent/mortgage (23%) remain consistent with previous surveys [7][30] Holiday Spending Outlook - **Holiday Budgets**: - 38% plan to keep holiday budgets the same, 30% expect to spend more, and 23% expect to spend less, yielding a NET of +6%, down from +14% last year [86][90] - Higher prices are the main driver for spending changes, with 52% of consumers attributing reduced spending to inflation [91][92] Consumer Behavior Trends - **Spending Categories**: - Negative net spending intentions are observed in apparel (-18%), toys (-19%), and leisure/entertainment categories [15][83] - Food away from home remains a top category for spending cuts [51][83] - **Use of AI in Shopping**: - 45% of holiday shoppers are utilizing AI tools, with younger consumers showing higher engagement [108] Additional Insights - **Demographic Variations**: - Concerns about inflation and political issues vary by income level, with low-income consumers more worried about debts and high-income consumers focusing on investments [35][37] - **Tariff Concerns**: - 35% of consumers are very concerned about tariffs, with spending cautiousness increasing [40][45] This survey indicates a notable decline in consumer confidence and spending intentions, influenced by economic and political factors, with a cautious outlook for the upcoming holiday season.

The government shutdown is likely to continue to strain the travel industry even after it ends. Joining us right now is Sarah Nelson, international president of the Association of Flight Attendants. Good morning to you.It's great to see you um under not so great circumstances. Speak to this issue of what happens afterwards. So, we may have a deal this week, but it sounds like things are going to be tough going or tough sledding for some time and obviously we still have Thanksgiving coming up.Andrew, thanks ...

The Senate may have started the process to reopen the government, but the travel industry could take weeks to bounce back. Thousands of flights were cancelled and delayed over the weekend, and that is continuing this morning as well. Joining us right now is the points guy, Brian Kelly, um to maybe give us a little advice on what to do if you are planning or hoping to travel. How bad out there is it, Brian? >> It's pretty bad right now. More than 50% of flights were delayed or cancelled yesterday of the majo ...

Summary of the Conference Call on the China Leisure Sector Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **China Leisure Sector**, particularly the travel industry, which accounts for **10% of Chinese consumption** and is the strongest growth category in a subdued consumer spending environment [3][12]. Key Insights and Forecasts - **Domestic Travel Growth**: - Forecasted to grow at **4.8% CAGR** from 2025 to 2040, reaching **US$1,822 billion** by 2040, which is **2.3 times** the 2019 level [4][52]. - Expected to record a **7% CAGR** in domestic travel volume from 2025 to 2027 [4][45]. - Anticipated increase in domestic travel frequency to **7.9 times per year** by 2040, compared to **4.3 times** in 2019 [52][54]. - **Outbound Travel Growth**: - Projected to reach **US$628 billion** by 2040, with a **9% CAGR** from 2025 to 2040 [5][46]. - Chinese outbound travelers expected to increase to **368 million** by 2040, with a penetration rate rising from **11% in 2019 to 26%** [79][80]. - The EU and US are expected to account for over **40% of China's outbound travel spend** by 2040, up from **20% currently** [3][13]. - **Consumer Behavior Shifts**: - Travel spending is expected to shift towards **experiences** rather than physical goods, with a decline in shopping expenditure by approximately **15 percentage points** by 2040 [5][76]. - The average per-capita spending for outbound trips is projected to reach **US$1,709**, which is **104% of the 2019 level** [83]. Beneficiaries of Growth - Major beneficiaries identified include: - **Online Travel Agencies (OTAs)** - **Limited Service Hotels** - **Macau Gaming** - **Chinese Airlines** - **Japanese Retail** [6][14]. Market Dynamics and Challenges - The travel sector is correlated with the macroeconomy, suggesting potential headwinds from consumer downtrading and pricing pressures in the near term [4][51]. - Despite these challenges, lower travel costs are expected to drive domestic travel volume growth [51]. Long-term Implications - As Chinese tourists become the largest global travel cohort, their impact on global travel and consumer sectors, particularly luxury goods, hotels, airlines, and shopping malls, is expected to increase significantly [6][14]. - The report emphasizes the importance of demographic shifts, supply expansion, and increased leisure time as key drivers for the anticipated growth in both domestic and outbound travel [61][62]. Conclusion - The China Leisure Sector is poised for significant growth, driven by increasing domestic travel frequency and a robust outbound travel market. The evolving consumer preferences towards experiences and the anticipated demographic shifts will reshape the travel landscape, presenting both opportunities and challenges for stakeholders in the industry [3][5][14].

Core Insights - Travelzoo® (NASDAQ: TZOO) has announced new Club Offers for its members in Canada, the U.S., and the UK, emphasizing rigorously vetted and negotiated deals for travel enthusiasts [1][2][4] Group 1: Club Offers - The Canadian Club Offers include a $899 Paris 4-night getaway with flights, a $138 lakeside resort near Muskoka with breakfast at 48% off, a $999 Ireland 3-city trip with flights and rental car saving 60%, a $478 Italy 2-night stay in Valpolicella with dinner, and a Bali beach and jungle retreat package for under $1200 for two people [3] - Offers are designed to provide significant savings, with discounts ranging from 48% to 60% off regular prices [3] Group 2: Company Overview - Travelzoo® serves 30 million travelers and provides Club Members with offers personally reviewed by deal experts globally [1] - The company maintains long-standing relationships with thousands of top travel suppliers, enabling access to exclusive deals [1]

Market Overview - The trading day ended with mixed results, with the S&P 500 and Dow showing slight gains of 0.2% and 0.1% respectively, while the NASDAQ fell by 0.2% due to pressure from big tech stocks [6][8] - Airline stocks experienced volatility, initially down by 2.6% but later rebounding to a gain of 3.8%, reflecting hopes of a resolution to the ongoing government shutdown [2][3] Earnings and Company Performance - Upcoming earnings reports to watch include major companies such as Walt Disney, Paramount, and Warner Brothers Discovery, which could impact market sentiment [4] - Expedia emerged as the top gainer in the S&P 500, rising by 17.5% and projecting a 6.5% increase in revenue for the year, driven by strong travel trends [12] - Monster Beverage also performed well, gaining 5.2% after exceeding expectations in its third-quarter results, with analysts optimistic about its gross margins [14] - Callaway Golf, which owns Topgolf, saw a 14.3% increase in stock price after raising its annual revenue guidance to $3.92 billion, up from a previous estimate of $3.86 billion [15][16] Decliners - JBS, a meat processing company, fell by 3.64% following a presidential announcement regarding an investigation into price manipulation in the meatpacking industry [17][18] - Block, formerly known as Square, saw a decline of 7.7% despite raising its full-year profit forecast, as its third-quarter revenues fell short of expectations [20] - Sweetgreen shares hit a record low, down 7.5%, after cutting its revenue guidance and missing analyst estimates [22] Economic Indicators - A significant drop in U.S. corrugated box shipments, the lowest since 2015, raises concerns about a weak holiday retail shopping season, indicating potential economic uncertainty [27][28]

Airbnb issued a better-than-expected outlook for the holiday quarter, citing strong demand as US travelers used its recently launched “reserve now, pay later” feature to book trips in advance https://t.co/rj4ZqCE4L9 ...