Core Viewpoint - On December 12, 2023, a significant block trade occurred for Tuojing Technology, with a transaction volume of 0.95 million shares and a transaction value of 3.2609 million yuan, indicating active trading interest in the stock [1] Trading Activity - The block trade price was 343.25 yuan, matching the closing price of Tuojing Technology on the same day, which rose by 8.62% [1] - The daily turnover rate for the stock was 3.98%, with a total trading volume of 3.767 billion yuan [1] - Throughout the day, there was a net outflow of 25.3087 million yuan in main funds, despite a cumulative increase of 12.90% in the stock price over the past five days [1] Financing Data - The latest margin financing balance for Tuojing Technology stands at 9.53 billion yuan, with an increase of 13.5691 million yuan over the past five days, reflecting a growth rate of 1.45% [1]

Core Insights - The Central Economic Work Conference held on December 10-11 in Beijing outlined key tasks for China's economic work in 2026, emphasizing the importance of maintaining confidence and leveraging advantages to address challenges [1][9] Economic Work Focus Areas - **Domestic Demand**: Emphasis on building a strong domestic market through consumption initiatives, income increase plans, and investment stabilization [1][11] - **Innovation Drive**: Focus on fostering new growth drivers by enhancing education, technology, and talent development, and establishing international innovation centers [1][11] - **Reform and High-Quality Development**: Commitment to deepening reforms, including a unified market construction and addressing competitive practices [2][11] - **Opening Up**: Promotion of multi-field cooperation and gradual expansion of service sector openness, along with enhancing foreign investment mechanisms [2][11] - **Coordinated Development**: Efforts to promote urban-rural integration and regional collaboration, ensuring stable prices for essential agricultural products [2][11] - **Green Transition**: Initiatives aimed at energy efficiency and carbon reduction across key industries [2][11] - **Public Welfare**: Focus on improving people's livelihoods through job stability and healthcare reforms [3][11] - **Risk Management**: Strategies to stabilize the real estate market and manage local government debt risks [3][11] Market Opportunities - **Technology and Manufacturing Exports**: Attention on sectors like semiconductor equipment, AI, and robotics, as well as traditional manufacturing exports [6][14] - **Supply Optimization**: Focus on industries with resource constraints and potential price increases, alongside sectors benefiting from policy adjustments [6][14] - **Consumer and Service Sector Upgrades**: Anticipation of a positive macroeconomic policy environment boosting consumer sectors, particularly in retail and food and beverage [6][14]

Market Overview - A-shares showed a rebound after hitting a low, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3889.35 points, up 0.41%, and the Shenzhen Component Index rising by 0.84% [1][15] - The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached approximately 2.1 trillion, an increase of over 200 billion from the previous day, indicating a recovery in trading sentiment [1][15] - The semiconductor equipment and electric grid sectors led the gains, while sectors like innovative pharmaceuticals, chemicals, and coal showed weaker performance [1][15] Economic Policy Insights - The Central Economic Work Conference held on December 10-11 addressed various topics including domestic demand, innovation, anti-involution, and opening up to the outside world [2][16] - The "anti-involution + technological innovation" sectors are expected to benefit from policy support and logical backing, potentially outperforming in the second phase of the bull market [2][16] - The conference emphasized the importance of domestic demand and the need to eliminate unreasonable restrictions in the consumption sector to unleash service consumption potential [2][16] Investment Strategy - The market is expected to continue its upward potential, supported by anticipated incremental policies aimed at boosting consumption, industrial investment, and technological innovation [3][18] - The current market fluctuations are seen as a rebalancing of funds between short-term data and long-term trends, with expectations of a recovery in corporate profits and economic signals [3][18] - A flexible investment strategy combining core positions with satellite rotation is recommended, focusing on ETFs that capture long-term investment opportunities in the Chinese economy [6][20] Sector Performance - The securities sector is experiencing optimism due to the potential for mergers and acquisitions among major brokerages, which could enhance profitability and market expectations [7][22] - The approval of licenses for stablecoin trading by brokerages opens new business opportunities, potentially increasing revenue from transaction fees and attracting new clients [8][23] - The performance of the securities sector is closely tied to market activity, with increased trading volumes likely to boost brokerage revenues across various business lines [7][22] Gold Market Dynamics - The gold market is supported by ongoing geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties, with gold being favored as a "store of value" amid inflation and stagnation concerns in the U.S. economy [11][25] - The recent approval of stablecoin trading licenses is expected to create new growth avenues for brokerages, enhancing their performance and market valuation [8][23] - Investors are advised to monitor gold ETFs as they align with the long-term bullish outlook for gold prices, driven by systemic risks and economic conditions [12][26]

证监许可【2011】1288号 报告 股指或震荡弱势至年底 2025年12月12日 更多精彩内容 请关注 格林大华期货 官方微信 把促进经济稳定增长、物价合理回升作为货币政策的重要考量，灵活高效运用降准降息等多种政策工具，保 持流动性充裕，引导金融机构加力支持扩大内需、科技创新、中小微企业等重点领域。 研究员：于军礼 联系邮箱：yujunli@greendh.com 期货从业资格证号：F0247894 期货交易咨询号：Z0000112 中央经济工作会议召开 坚持内需主导，建设强大国内市场。深入实施提振消费专项行动，制定实施城乡居民增收计划。扩大优质商 品和服务供给。 清理消费领域不合理限制措施，释放服务消费潜力。推动投资止跌回稳，适当增加中央预算内投资规模。 建设北京（京津冀）、上海（长三角）、粤港澳大湾区国际科技创新中心。深化拓展"人工智能+。 深入整治"内卷式"竞争。加紧清理拖欠企业账款。 深入推进中小金融机构减量提质，持续深化资本市场投融资综合改革。 坚持"双碳"引领，推动全面绿色转型。制定能源强国建设规划纲要，加快新型能源体系建设，扩大绿电应 用。加强全国碳排放权交易市场建设。 倡导积极婚育观，努力稳 ...

先进封装设备板块：AI芯片技术迭代推动先进封装需求，进而拉动相关设备增长。中信建投指出， 2025年下半年2.5D/3D先进封装技术有望取得突破，带动封装设备需求放量。中微公司已在先进封装领 域全面布局，发布CCP刻蚀及TSV深硅通孔设备，将进一步放大先进封装设备的采购需求。 风险提示：本文提及的行业信息与企业动态仅作梳理，不构成任何投资建议；企业经营及市场波动存在 不确定性，请注意相关风险。 存储芯片供需缺口扩大，设备需求同步激增：瑞银预计，DRAM供应短缺将持续至2027年第一季度， DDR内存需求增长20.7%远超供应增速；NAND闪存短缺态势将延续至2026年第三季度。存储技术向3D 化演进推动设备需求升级，3D NAND堆叠层数向千层迈进使刻蚀设备用量显著上升，ALD与CVD协同 工艺成为主流，直接利好中微公司、拓荆科技等设备企业。 受积极影响的板块： 半导体材料板块：设备与材料存在强协同关系，设备产能扩张直接带动上游材料需求。中信建投2025年 12月9日研报指出，设备国产化率提升将同步加速靶材、高纯工艺系统等"卡脖子"材料的替代进程。 半导体零部件板块：设备核心零部件国产化是政策重点扶持方向，具 ...

Group 1 - The core transaction details of Tuojing Technology include a total of 9,500 shares traded on December 12, with a transaction value of 3.2609 million yuan, representing 0.09% of the total trading volume for that day [1][2] - The transaction price was 343.25 yuan, which remained unchanged compared to the market closing price of 343.25 yuan [1][2] - The buying department for this transaction was an institutional special account, indicating a significant interest from institutional investors [2]

Core Viewpoint - ASML's EUV lithography machines are essential for leading AI chip manufacturers like TSMC and Samsung to produce advanced AI chips, driven by the ongoing global AI boom and a potential "storage supercycle" lasting until 2027 [1][2]. Group 1: Company Performance and Outlook - ASML reported a third-quarter order total of €5.4 billion, exceeding market expectations of €4.9 billion, with EUV orders reaching the highest level in nearly seven quarters [1]. - The CEO of ASML, Christophe Fouquet, reiterated that the company aims to increase annual net sales from €28.3 billion last year to €60 billion by 2030, driven by the AI boom [1]. - ASML's stock has significantly risen, with its ADR reaching its best monthly performance in 20 years in September, and a cumulative increase of 60% since 2025 [2]. Group 2: Market Trends and Investment - The global AI infrastructure investment wave is expected to reach $3 trillion to $4 trillion by 2030, driven by demand for AI hardware [4]. - Analysts from major financial institutions believe that the semiconductor equipment sector is in a long-term bull market, supported by the expansion of AI infrastructure led by tech giants like Microsoft and Google [4][5]. - The semiconductor market is projected to grow by 22.5% in 2025, reaching a total value of $772.2 billion, and further expanding to $975.5 billion in 2026 [7]. Group 3: Technological Advancements - ASML is transitioning from EUV technology to High-NA EUV, which is crucial for producing chips at 2nm and below, enhancing performance capabilities [16]. - The company is collaborating with major clients like Intel and SK Hynix to commercialize these advanced machines, with expectations of high-volume production by 2027 and 2028 [16]. - The demand for AI capabilities is pushing the semiconductor industry beyond traditional Moore's Law, with expectations for transistor counts to increase significantly faster [18][19]. Group 4: Competitive Landscape - ASML holds a dominant market share of over 90% in the lithography market, significantly higher than its competitors [22]. - The company has established a strong moat through its unique technology and deep integration with clients, making it difficult for competitors to catch up [23][24]. - While there are emerging competitors, such as Substrate, they are still years away from commercial production, indicating ASML's current technological lead [24].

展望后市，牛市的脚步并未停下，市场存在继续上攻的潜力和动能。政策面角度，中央经济工作会议客 观、准确、务实地回应了市场对消费、投资、科技等多方面问题的关切，增量配套政策值得期待。基本 面角度，经济数据对短线的压力反而构成了长期的预期差修复空间，市场或将在震荡整固的过程中等待 实体经济的企稳回升。技术面角度，调整以来A股多次下挫均顽强拉回，体现了场外资金的进场热情， 多空双方对下方支撑区域逐渐形成共识。 今日A股探底回升，下方存在阶段性支撑。板块层面多数上涨，半导体设备、电网等科技成长板块领 涨，创新药、化工、煤炭等少数板块表现偏弱。截至收盘，上证指数放量上涨，报3889.35点，上涨 0.41%，深证成指涨0.84%，创业板指涨0.97%。个股层面涨跌互现，约2700家上涨，2600余家下跌，小 微盘股受情绪影响表现较弱。成交方面，沪深两市成交额约2.1万亿元，较昨日放量超两千亿元，交投 情绪有所回暖。 本周市场主要呈现冲高回落后的震荡走势，但跌势并不流畅，盘中多有承接。周一指数高开高走，回补 前期跳空缺口，但做多情绪略显不足。周二周三，市场在迷茫和怀疑中震荡下跌，逼近反弹通道下沿后 获得日内短暂支撑。周四在 ...

Market Performance - The A-share market opened lower but closed higher, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.41%, the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 0.84%, the ChiNext Index up by 0.97%, and the Northern Stock 50 gaining 0.31% [1] - The total market turnover reached 2.12 trillion yuan, an increase of 233.5 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1] Sector Performance - Active sectors included electric grid equipment, precious metals, and semiconductor equipment, while retail and Hainan sectors experienced adjustments [1] - The semiconductor equipment sector saw significant gains, with ETFs such as Huaxia Fund's Sci-Tech Semiconductor ETF, Huatai-PB Fund's Sci-Tech Semiconductor Equipment ETF, and Penghua's Sci-Tech Semiconductor Equipment ETF rising by 5%, 4.98%, and 4.52% respectively [1] - The smart grid sector performed strongly, with Huaxia Fund's Electric Grid Equipment ETF and GF Fund's Electric Grid ETF increasing by 3.49% and 3.26% respectively [1] International Market Influence - The overnight Dow Jones index closed higher, contributing to a 2.84% increase in Penghua Fund's Dow Jones ETF [1] - Hong Kong stocks showed resilience, with GF Fund's Hong Kong Stock Connect Non-Bank ETF also rising by 2.84% [1] Declining Sectors - The energy and chemical sectors declined, with the Energy Chemical ETF falling by 1% and the Chemical ETF decreasing by 0.54% [2] - Overnight, U.S. tech stocks weakened, leading to a drop of 0.85% in the NASDAQ Technology ETF and a 0.69% decrease in another NASDAQ Technology ETF [2]

从板块来看，商业航天概念延续强势，再升科技等20余股涨停。 可控核聚变概念走强，国机重装、中洲特材等多股涨停。 电网设备概念快速拉升，中能电气、保变电气涨停。 市场探底回升，三大指数全线收红，创业板指涨近1%。盘面上，市场热点快速轮动，全市场涨跌家数接近持平。截至收盘，沪指涨0.41%，深成指涨 0.84%，创业板指涨0.97%。 沪深两市成交额约20922.06亿元，较前一个交易日放量约2350.94亿元。 个股方面，中际旭创、新易盛成交额超200亿元，胜宏科技、阳光电源、寒武纪-U成交额靠前。 | 内地综合屏 | A股报价 | | 板块热点 | 市场情绪 | 热点盯盘 | 个股热力图 | 综合排名 | 沪深港通 | | 资金流向 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 还 ② 代码 | 名称 | | 涨幅 | 现手 | 现价 | 总手 | 昨收 | 开盘 | | | 1 | 300308 中际旭创 | | | -0.82% | 69634 | 582.00 | 46.88万 | 586.81 | 5 ...