Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The copper price is expected to have some adjustment space in the third - quarter off - season due to fundamental inventory accumulation and a decline in scrap - refined substitution, but there is strong support below the price [1]. - For aluminum, the short - term fundamentals are acceptable, and attention should be paid to demand. In the low - inventory pattern, pay attention to the far - month inter - month and internal - external reverse arbitrage [1]. - The zinc short - allocation idea remains unchanged, and short - selling on rallies is recommended. The internal - external positive arbitrage can continue to be held [4]. - For nickel, continue to pay attention to the opportunity of the nickel - stainless steel price ratio contraction [6]. - Stainless steel is expected to be weak and volatile in the short term [9]. - Lead is expected to oscillate in the range of 17100 - 17500 next week, and there may be a risk of a price - support cycle if the price remains above 17200 due to macro - influences [11]. - For tin, it is recommended to wait and see in the short term, and pay attention to high - short opportunities after the maintenance period in the medium - to - long term [13]. - Industrial silicon is expected to oscillate if the top enterprises continue to cut production and there is no obvious recovery in short - term production [17]. - Lithium carbonate is expected to be weak and volatile in the medium - to - long term. In the short term, supply is expected to be in surplus next week, and the "anti - involution" policy may drive up sentiment [17]. Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - This week, the copper price showed a reverse - V trend. Macro - data was mixed, and the domestic market started to accumulate inventory in the off - season. The refined - scrap price difference widened, and a moderate inventory accumulation is expected from July to August [1]. Aluminum - Supply increased slightly, and demand is expected to weaken seasonally in July. Supply and demand are expected to be balanced, and the short - term fundamentals are acceptable [1]. Zinc - The zinc price fluctuated widely this week. Supply is expected to increase, demand is seasonally weak, and the inventory shows different trends at home and abroad. The short - allocation strategy remains unchanged [4]. Nickel - Supply is at a high level, demand is weak, and overseas nickel - plate inventory remains stable while domestic inventory decreases slightly. Pay attention to the price - ratio contraction opportunity [6]. Stainless Steel - Supply has been reduced, demand is mainly for rigid needs, costs are stable, and inventory is slightly increasing. It is expected to be weak and volatile [9]. Lead - The lead price rose this week. Supply - side issues include weak scrap production and tight waste batteries. Demand - side has high battery inventory. It is expected to oscillate in a certain range next week [11]. Tin - The tin price fluctuated widely. Supply is affected by mine issues, demand is weak, and inventory shows different trends at home and abroad. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [13]. Industrial Silicon - Top enterprises are cutting production, and the supply - demand balance has shifted to inventory reduction. The price is expected to oscillate [17]. Lithium Carbonate - The price rose this week due to policy - driven sentiment. Supply is expected to be in surplus in the short term, and the price is expected to be weak and volatile in the medium - to - long term [17].

有色商品日报 | 品 种 | 点评 | | --- | --- | | | 隔夜 LME 铜震荡偏弱，下跌 0.05%至 9660 美元/吨；SHFE 铜主力下跌 0.74%至 78330 | | | 元/吨；国内现货铜进口亏损收窄。宏观方面，美联储公布的最新 6 月会议纪要显 | | | 示，官员们对利率前景的分歧日益显现，主要源于他们对关税可能如何影响通胀的预 | | | 期不同，与会者认为在贸易政策及其他政府政策和地缘政治风险不断演变背景下，经 | | | 济前景的不确定性依然较高，但相较前次会议整体不确定性已有所减弱。市场对美联 | | | 储年内首次降息依然在 9 月，6 月和 7 月是重要的通胀和经济关注窗口。昨晚特朗普 | | | 发出第二波关税函，征收 20%~50%的不等关税，其中对巴西征收 50%关税，市场仍在 | | | 关注美国对主要经济体征收关税程度。国内方面，中国 6 月 CPI 同比涨 0.1%，核心 | | 铜 | CPI 涨幅创 14 个月新高，PPI 同比降幅扩大至 3.6%。库存方面来看，LME 库存增加 | | | 4625 吨至 107125 吨；Comex 库存增加 ...

有色金属 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 专业研究·创造价值 2025 年 7 月 9 日 有色日报 美关税冲击，沪铜领跌有色 核心观点 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 6 请务必阅读文末免责条款 请务必阅读文末免责条款部分 有色金属 | 日报 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 沪铜 7 月 8 日美国特朗普表示要对铜征收 50%关税，这使得纽约铜拉涨 超 10%，突破 3 月时的高位，一度逼近 6 美元/磅。但伦铜走势反差 较大，呈现冲高回落态势，一度跌破 9600 美元/吨。COMEX 和 LME 价 差快速走阔，按照 7 月 7 日收盘价计算，价差已接近 2 ...

【铝&氧化铝&铝合金】 今日沪铝震荡，华东现货贴水维持在50元。近期产业淡季负反馈显现，小幅累库，沪铝指数持仓处于近年高位 体现市场分歧大，美国关税政策调整风险下关注多头是否会持续减仓带来阶段性调整。铸造铝合金跟随沪铝波 动，保太ADC12报价稳定在19500元。铝和铸造铝合金现货价差扩大至千元以上但盘面上AL2511与AD2511价差维 持在400-500元波动，价差如有扩大考虑多AD空AL个入，此外关注基差机会。近期过剩行业反内卷题材带动氧化 铝期现货上调，今日各地现货指数继续上调10-20元,上期所仓单库存极低需要甚差走低吸引仓单库存流入,期 货月差拉大暂震荡偏强，但国内氧化铝运行产能回升至历史高位，过剩前景下上方空间或有限。 【锌】 关税影响反复，资金倾向落袋为安，进一步入场偏谨慎,日内沪锌加权持仓再降3271手至25万手，资金拥挤度 继续下降，整体暂承压于60日均线。SMMO#锌均价较近月盘面实时升水50元/吨，收盘价07合约较08合约低20元/ 吨,前期Back结构明显走平,侧面印证基本面供增需弱。下游高价接货意愿不足,现货交投清淡。锌延续反弹 空配思路不改。 | | 操作评级 | 2025年07 ...

有色商品日报 有色商品日报（2025 年 7 月 9 日） 一、研究观点 | 品 种 | 点评 | | --- | --- | | | 隔夜 LME 铜尾盘发生异动，下跌 1.22%至 9665 美元/吨；SHFE 铜主力上涨 0.69%至 | | | 80030 元/吨；国内现货铜进口亏损收窄。宏观方面，据纽约联储周二发布的月度调查 | | | 数据显示，消费者对未来一年物价上涨的中位数预期连续第二个月下降，从 3.2%回落 | | | 至 3%，创五个月新低，对未来三年和五年的年化通胀预期则分别维持在 3%和 2.6%不 | | | 变。特朗普周二签署行政令，将对等关税暂缓期推迟到 8 月 1 日，不再延期，并继续 | | | 发关税函。另外，特朗普在内阁会议上威胁对铜、药品和半导体征收高额关税，并考 | | | 虑对进口到美国的铜征收 50%的附加税，这也导致昨晚美铜和伦铜市场异动。库存方 | | 铜 | 面来看，LME 库存增加 5100 吨至 102500 吨；Comex 库存增加 301 吨至 20.12 万吨； | | | SHFE 铜仓单下降 2573 吨至 19109 吨，BC 铜仓单下降 ...

Group 1 - The non-ferrous metal sector opened with significant gains, with Jingyi Co., Ltd. rising over 7% [1] - Other stocks such as Yuyuan Powder Materials, Electric Alloy, Northern Copper Industry, and Yunnan Copper also experienced increases [1] - The market reaction is influenced by Trump's announcement that copper tariffs will reach 50% [1]

Meeting Information - The company will hold its second extraordinary general meeting of shareholders in 2025 on July 25, 2025, at 14:30 [1] - Network voting will be available from 9:15 to 15:00 on the same day [1][7] - Shareholders can vote through the Shenzhen Stock Exchange trading system and the internet voting system [1][7] Eligibility and Registration - Ordinary shareholders or their agents registered by the close of the registration date are eligible to attend the meeting [2] - Registration can be done via fax or mail for shareholders unable to attend in person [6][7] Agenda Items - The meeting will discuss several proposals, including changes to the registered capital and business scope, and amendments to the company's articles of association [4][5] - Proposals requiring special resolutions include changes to the articles of association and rules for board and shareholder meetings [6] - Cumulative voting will be used for the election of non-independent and independent directors [6][13] Voting Procedures - Shareholders can express their voting opinions as agree, disagree, or abstain for non-cumulative proposals [8] - For cumulative voting, shareholders must allocate their votes among candidates without exceeding their total voting rights [10][9] Additional Information - The company will provide detailed voting procedures and registration requirements in the meeting announcement [1][7] - The announcement will be published in major financial newspapers and on the company's official website [5][6]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Yunnan Aluminum Co., Ltd. (云铝股份), expects a significant increase in its performance for the first half of 2025, driven by full production capacity and favorable market conditions for aluminum prices [2][3]. Financial Performance Summary - The projected net profit for the reporting period (January 1, 2025 - June 30, 2025) is estimated to be between 2.7 billion yuan and 2.8 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 7.19% to 11.16% [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders after deducting non-recurring gains and losses is expected to be between 2.65 billion yuan and 2.75 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 10.98% to 15.17% [2]. - The basic earnings per share are projected to be between 0.779 yuan and 0.807 yuan, compared to 0.726 yuan in the same period last year [2]. Operational Insights - The company has achieved full-load production of its electrolytic aluminum production lines and has implemented measures to enhance efficiency and reduce costs [2]. - The increase in aluminum product sales volume and revenue is attributed to the company's proactive marketing efforts and the favorable market conditions, particularly the decline in raw material prices such as alumina in the second quarter [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Gold is expected to trade in a high - level range due to Trump's tariff threats, fiscal expansion in many countries, long - term monetary easing, and global order reshaping. Silver will have a strong - level range trading as government fiscal deficit stimulus supports demand. Copper is recommended to hold long positions, with a long - term positive outlook. Zinc is likely to trade in a range, with opportunities to short on rallies. Lead, tin, aluminum, and nickel are under pressure. Industrial silicon has a strong expectation but a weak reality, trading in a high - level range. Lithium carbonate is expected to face resistance in its rebound and trade in a range [1]. - Gold has support from Trump's tariff uncertainties and China's central bank's continuous gold purchases. The long - term bullish logic for gold remains unchanged due to tariff uncertainties, long - term global order reshaping, and the trend of fiscal and monetary double - easing [2][3]. - Copper is in a high - level range. Although the price is high and suppresses demand, the long - term outlook is positive due to the tight global copper mine supply and its strategic importance [7][8]. - Zinc is under pressure. With the supply of zinc concentrate increasing and demand being weak during the off - season, short - term short positions can be held, and opportunities to short on rallies can be grasped in the long term [9][10]. - Aluminum prices are under pressure as the industry enters the off - season, with costs rising and inventory increasing. It is recommended to look for opportunities to short on rebounds [11][12]. - Nickel and stainless steel prices are under pressure. With supply - demand imbalance and inventory accumulation, it is advisable to short on rebounds [13][14]. - Lithium carbonate is expected to trade in a range. Although demand shows signs of increase, the supply - demand contradiction is not resolved, and the total inventory is still rising [15][16]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Review**: Trump's tariff uncertainties and China's central bank's continuous gold purchases provide support for gold [2]. - **Basic Logic**: Trump's new tariff plan may increase inflation risks in the US and trigger asset selling. China's central bank has been increasing gold reserves for 8 consecutive months. The long - term bullish logic for gold remains unchanged due to tariff uncertainties, long - term global order reshaping, and the trend of fiscal and monetary double - easing [3]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Gold has strong support around 760. Long - term investors can consider taking long positions. Silver is in a range - bound trading, with strong support at 8700 [4]. Copper - **Market Review**: Shanghai copper stopped falling and rebounded, trading in a high - level range [7]. - **Industrial Logic**: The supply of copper concentrate remains tight. The production of electrolytic copper has increased, but high prices have suppressed demand. The global visible copper inventory is at a historical low, and the terminal consumption is in the off - season [7]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: After a full correction, consider taking long positions on dips. In the long term, the outlook for copper is positive. The focus range for Shanghai copper is [78000, 80000], and for London copper is [9700, 9900] dollars per ton [8]. Zinc - **Market Review**: Zinc prices fell under pressure, testing the support at the integer level [9]. - **Industrial Logic**: The supply of zinc concentrate is abundant, and domestic inventory has slightly increased. The downstream galvanizing enterprises' operating rate is affected by weak steel demand and is lower than in previous years [9]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions in the short term. In the long term, look for opportunities to short on rallies. The focus range for Shanghai zinc is [21800, 22400], and for London zinc is [2650, 2750] dollars per ton [10]. Aluminum - **Market Review**: Aluminum prices rebounded but faced resistance, and alumina prices rebounded and then fell [11]. - **Industrial Logic**: For electrolytic aluminum, costs have increased slightly, inventory has turned to accumulation, and demand has entered the off - season. For alumina, the import of bauxite is high, and the production capacity has recovered. The short - term fundamentals are relatively loose [12]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Look for opportunities to short on rebounds for Shanghai aluminum, paying attention to inventory changes. The main operating range is [20000 - 20800]. Alumina is expected to trade in a low - level range [12]. Nickel - **Market Review**: Nickel prices rebounded and then fell, and stainless steel prices rebounded but faced resistance [13]. - **Industrial Logic**: For nickel, the cost of overseas nickel mines provides support, but inventory has accumulated again, and demand is in the off - season. For stainless steel, production cuts have weakened, and inventory pressure may reappear [14]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short on rebounds for nickel and stainless steel, paying attention to downstream production cut changes. The main operating range for nickel is [120000 - 125000] [14]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2509 slightly reduced positions and followed the double - silicon trend [15]. - **Industrial Logic**: The supply - demand contradiction is not resolved, and total inventory is at a new high. Although demand shows signs of increase, it is difficult to verify the authenticity. The supply side has both maintenance and复产, and the output increase is in line with expectations [16]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is expected to trade in a high - level range, paying attention to the 65,000 resistance. The focus range is [63000 - 64000] [16].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Copper**: Overnight LME copper weakened with a 0.69% decline to $9,784 per ton, and SHFE copper主力 fell 0.15% to 79,390 yuan per ton. There are concerns about a resurgence of trade tensions, and inventories at LME, Comex, and in the domestic market have increased. Short - term copper prices may be weak but the downside may be limited. Low inventories at home and abroad, along with domestic import losses and the discount pattern, are favorable for the bulls [1]. - **Aluminum**: Alumina trended strongly, while Shanghai aluminum trended weakly. There are both ore disturbances and new production pressures in alumina. With news of the exit of backward production capacity, the short - term policy may guide the market to fluctuate strongly. There is a marginal game between weakening electrolytic aluminum demand and low - delivery products. There is a risk of a short squeeze in the near - term, so it is not advisable to be overly bearish [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Overnight LME nickel fell 0.85%, and Shanghai nickel fell 0.39%. In the stainless - steel industry chain, although there is production reduction, the overall inventory remains high. In the new - energy industry chain, the demand for nickel sulfate in July increased slightly month - on - month. In the short term, it will continue to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to overseas policy disturbances [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Copper**: LME copper prices declined overnight, and SHFE copper also fell. Concerns about trade tensions and increased inventories have put pressure on copper prices. However, low inventories and import losses support the bulls [1]. - **Aluminum**: Alumina showed a strong trend, while Shanghai aluminum was weak. There are complex factors in the alumina market, and the short - term policy may drive the market. There is a risk of a short squeeze in the near - term [1][2]. - **Nickel**: LME and Shanghai nickel prices fell. In the stainless - steel and new - energy industries, the situation is mixed. In the short term, it will fluctuate, and overseas policies need attention [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: On July 7, 2025, compared with July 4, 2025, the price of flat - water copper decreased by 640 yuan per ton, and the inventory at LME and Comex increased [3]. - **Lead**: The average price of 1 lead increased by 50 yuan per ton, and the inventory at the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased [3]. - **Aluminum**: The prices in Wuxi and Nanhai decreased, and the inventory at LME and the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased [4]. - **Nickel**: The price of Jinchuan nickel decreased by 1,500 yuan per ton, and the inventory at the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased [4]. - **Zinc**: The主力 settlement price decreased by 0.7%, and the inventory at the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased while the LME inventory decreased [5]. - **Tin**: The主力 settlement price decreased by 1.2%, and the inventory at the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased while the LME inventory decreased [5]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: Charts show the spot premium trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [7][9][10]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts display the near - far month spreads of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [11][14][16]. - **LME Inventory**: Charts present the LME inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [18][20][22]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Charts show the SHFE inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [25][27][29]. - **Social Inventory**: Charts display the social inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless - steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2025 [31][33][35]. - **Smelting Profit**: Charts present the trends of copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit rate from 2019 - 2025 [38][40][42]. 3.4 Non - Ferrous Metals Team Introduction - **Zhan Dapeng**: A master of science, currently the director of non - ferrous metals research at Everbright Futures Research Institute. He has over a decade of experience in commodity research and has won many industry awards [45]. - **Wang Heng**: A master of finance from the University of Adelaide, Australia. He is a non - ferrous metals researcher at Everbright Futures, mainly focusing on aluminum and silicon [45]. - **Zhu Xi**: A master of science from the University of Warwick, UK. She is a non - ferrous metals researcher at Everbright Futures, mainly focusing on lithium and nickel [46].