Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 55.8 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 14%, with a gross margin of 16% and a net profit of 3.54 billion yuan, reflecting a 59% year-on-year growth [1] - The increase in profit is attributed to comprehensive cost reduction and efficiency improvements, along with a year-on-year increase in production of key products [1] - The company is focusing on resource development and supply security, aiming to enhance its mining capacity and create a self-controlled mineral resource supply chain [2] - The company is advancing its "Two Seas" strategy, with new projects in alumina and electrolytic aluminum contributing to its competitive edge in the industry [3] - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 10.4 billion, 12.6 billion, and 14.9 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 10.7, 8.8, and 7.5 [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, alumina production reached 5.43 million tons, a 4% increase year-on-year, while electrolytic aluminum production was 1.94 million tons, up 9% year-on-year [1] - The average price of electrolytic aluminum in Q1 2025 was 20,400 yuan per ton, a 7.3% increase year-on-year, while alumina averaged 3,833 yuan per ton, a 15.2% increase year-on-year [1] - The company’s revenue for 2023 was 225.3 billion yuan, with a projected revenue of 222.3 billion yuan for 2025 [4] Strategic Initiatives - The company plans to increase its domestic mineral rights exploration and actively participate in the competition for mineral rights in key provinces [2] - New projects include the construction of several alumina and aluminum alloy projects, as well as renewable energy initiatives, with a target of achieving a 45.5% clean energy consumption ratio in electrolytic aluminum production [3] Valuation Metrics - The report provides projected earnings per share (EPS) of 0.60 yuan for 2025, with a net asset return rate of 13.6% [4] - The company’s total market capitalization is approximately 111.17 billion yuan, with a total share count of 17.16 billion shares [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5]. Core Views - The company has demonstrated a significant increase in profits due to comprehensive cost reduction and efficiency improvements, alongside a year-on-year increase in production of key products [1]. - The company is focusing on resource development and supply security, aiming to enhance its mining capabilities and establish a self-controlled mineral resource supply chain [2]. - The company is advancing its structural adjustments and enhancing its industrial development advantages through strategic projects and initiatives [3]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 55.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14%, with a gross margin of 16% and a net profit of 3.54 billion yuan, reflecting a 59% year-on-year growth [1]. - The projected net profits for 2025-2027 are estimated at 10.4 billion, 12.6 billion, and 14.9 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 10.7, 8.8, and 7.5 [3][4]. Production and Pricing - The production of alumina reached 5.43 million tons in Q1 2025, a 4% increase year-on-year, while the production of electrolytic aluminum was 1.94 million tons, a 9% increase year-on-year [1]. - The average price of electrolytic aluminum in Q1 2025 was 20,400 yuan per ton, a 7.3% increase year-on-year, while the price of alumina was 3,833 yuan per ton, a 15.2% increase year-on-year [1]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is actively pursuing new breakthroughs in resource development and supply security, with plans to increase domestic mineral rights exploration and accelerate the construction of overseas mining bases [2]. - The company is implementing multiple projects to enhance its production capacity, including the commissioning of new alumina and electrolytic aluminum projects [3].

文 | 魏鑫 来源 | CFC商品策略研究 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 近期在美国关税政策的影响下，商品整体呈现偏弱态势，短期市场受困于捉摸不定的 美国政策，以及不明朗的经济前景。2025与1984年前后，美国经济与政策的存在共 性，我们复盘20世纪80年代的大宗商品走势，寻找未来商品行情演绎的方向。 当前美国与1984年的美国，在 经济环境、政府压力、汇率、政策 方面存在四大共 性，商品长期走势存在趋同的可能。当然， 历史并不会简单重复，在阶段性的行情表 现中，或存在走势的分化 。 01 商品价格周期性：1977、1984与2025 工业金属具有较高的价格弹性，且对经济、政策的变化极为敏感。为方便复盘，我们选 取CRB现货指数作为商品价格的代表，选取道琼斯工业指数作为美股的代表，并采用月 度均值，忽略较为短期的波动。可以发现在70年代，CRB金属的走势与2018年至今十分 相似，先从低位大幅上行，在高位明显回落之后，到达比上涨前更高的价格中枢并趋势 上行；从美股的表现来看，两个阶段的趋势性变化也有相似之处。 我们也可以找到80年代初与近五年市场走势的相似性。如果单纯地刻舟求剑，会认为近 年的价格 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article draws parallels between the current economic and policy environment in the U.S. and that of 1984, suggesting that commodity prices may follow a similar trajectory due to shared characteristics in economic conditions, government pressures, exchange rates, and policy measures [1][5][20]. Group 1: Commodity Price Cycles - Industrial metals exhibit high price elasticity and are sensitive to economic and policy changes, with the CRB spot index serving as a representative for commodity prices [2]. - The price movements of CRB metals from the 1970s show similarities to recent trends, indicating a potential long-term upward price center, although current conditions are more comparable to 1984 [2][3]. - Historical data indicates that price increases typically last 20-30 months, while declines are more rapid, lasting 12-18 months [3]. Group 2: Economic and Policy Similarities - Current economic conditions mirror those of the early 1980s, characterized by recession, fiscal expansion, and high inflation, leading to a cycle of declining interest rates and inflation [5][11]. - The U.S. faces similar pressures as in the 1980s, including high trade deficits and increasing fiscal deficits [6][12]. - The exchange rate environment is akin to that of the early 1980s, with a strong dollar exacerbating trade deficits, prompting government efforts to weaken the dollar [6][16]. - Policy measures from the current administration reflect those of the Reagan era, including tax cuts, promoting oil production, and reducing government spending to address fiscal deficits [20]. Group 3: Future Commodity Outlook - Based on historical trends from 1984 to 1986, a downward trend in commodity prices is anticipated, influenced by the Plaza Accord and the resulting currency dynamics [21][23]. - The initial pricing of commodities may reflect a contraction in global trade, with future expectations potentially correcting if certain countries are less affected by tariffs [23]. - The unclear economic outlook in the U.S. will depend on the duration of government policies, with potential short-term price spikes driven by policy stimuli, but long-term price levels will be determined by demand fundamentals [23].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [4][36]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of 145.5 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 5.9%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 2.81 billion yuan, a 4.1% increase year-on-year, while the non-recurring net profit is expected to reach 2.69 billion yuan, showing a significant growth of 43.9% [5][6]. - The company’s copper smelting cost competitiveness is strong, and the second phase of the Mirador project is set to commence production in mid-2025, which will increase the company's copper mining capacity to 310,000 tons, ranking third among A-share copper companies [2][6]. Financial Performance and Forecast - In 2024, the company is expected to generate a net profit of 2.81 billion yuan, with a revenue of 145.5 billion yuan. The operating cash flow is projected to decline to 1.54 billion yuan, a decrease of 74.1% due to increased raw material inventory and new smelting capacity coming online [5][6]. - The company’s copper production is forecasted to be 155,000 tons in 2024, a decrease of 20,000 tons year-on-year, primarily due to power shortages in Ecuador affecting the Mirador copper mine [6][7]. - The estimated net profits for 2025-2027 are projected to be 2.885 billion yuan, 4.397 billion yuan, and 4.561 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 2.7%, 52.4%, and 3.7% [2][34]. Segment Analysis - In the smelting segment, the company’s profitability is expected to decline in the second half of 2024, but it will not incur losses. The estimated smelting profit margin is expected to remain above 40% in 2024, despite a general decline in profitability across the industry [2][6]. - The mining segment is facing challenges, with a projected copper output decrease due to operational disruptions. However, the upcoming production from the second phase of the Mirador project is anticipated to significantly enhance the company's mining capacity [2][6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Tianshan Aluminum is "Buy" [6] Core Views - Tianshan Aluminum reported a revenue of 7.925 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 16% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 9%, with a gross margin of 20%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.058 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 47% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 23% [1] - The company plans to build an integrated aluminum industry park in Indonesia, which will include bauxite, alumina, electrolytic aluminum, deep processing, and supporting industries, enhancing its competitive edge in the global aluminum market [2] - Tianshan Aluminum aims to achieve a 100% self-sufficiency rate in bauxite supply by expanding its resource acquisition capabilities and upstream industry layout [3] - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 4.8 billion yuan, 5.5 billion yuan, and 6.0 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 7.3, 6.3, and 5.8 [4] Financial Summary - In 2025, Tianshan Aluminum is projected to have a revenue of 31.264 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 11.3% [5] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 4.791 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of 7.5% [5] - The company's earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 1.03 yuan in 2025, with a net asset return rate of 16.2% [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the decline in alumina prices supports performance, with a focus on the growth potential of coal and aluminum businesses, as well as the elasticity of aluminum [3][4] - The company reported Q1 2025 revenue of 9.63 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.13%, but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 4.2%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 710 million yuan, down 35.1% year-on-year and 7.8% quarter-on-quarter [3][4] - The report maintains profit forecasts for 2025-2027, expecting net profits of 5.81 billion, 6.46 billion, and 7.01 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 2.58, 2.87, and 3.12 yuan [3][4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 9.63 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 17.13% and a quarter-on-quarter decline of 4.2%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 710 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 35.1% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 7.8% [3][4] - The company expects a net profit growth of 35% in 2025, followed by 11.2% and 8.5% in 2026 and 2027, respectively [3][4] Business Segments - The coal business has a certified production capacity of 8.55 million tons per year, with a focus on high-quality metallurgical coal. In Q1 2025, coal prices decreased, with the average price of Yancheng anthracite coal at 1,240 yuan per ton, down 13.4% year-on-year and 3.7% quarter-on-quarter [4][5] - The electrolytic aluminum business has a production capacity of 1.7 million tons per year, with the average price of aluminum in Q1 2025 at 20,433 yuan per ton, up 7.2% year-on-year but down 0.5% quarter-on-quarter [4][5] Growth Potential - The company anticipates an increase in coal production to approximately 7.2 million tons in 2025, supported by the technological upgrades at Liuhe Coal Mine [5] - The company has increased its dividend payout ratio to 41.78% in 2024, up 11.3 percentage points from 2023, indicating a commitment to enhancing shareholder returns [5]

金融界4月21日消息，上证指数低开高走，中证香港300资源指数 (H300资源，H30326)报2342.69点。 本文源自：金融界 作者：行情君 从指数持仓来看，中证香港300资源指数十大权重分别为：中国海洋石油（30.27%）、中国石油股份 （12.09%）、中国神华（10.59%）、紫金矿业（10.42%）、中国石油化工股份（9.56%）、中国宏桥 （3.67%）、中煤能源（3.33%）、招金矿业（3.3%）、兖矿能源（2.6%）、洛阳钼业（2.2%）。 从中证香港300资源指数持仓的市场板块来看，香港证券交易所占比100.00%。 从中证香港300资源指数持仓样本的行业来看，石油与天然气占比52.33%、煤炭占比18.61%、贵金属占 比15.80%、工业金属占比9.90%、稀有金属占比2.94%、其他有色金属及合金占比0.41%。 资料显示，指数样本每半年调整一次，样本调整实施时间分别为每年6月和12月的第二个星期五的下一 交易日。权重因子随样本定期调整而调整，调整时间与指数样本定期调整实施时间相同。在下一个定期 调整日前，权重因子一般固定不变。特殊情况下将对指数进行临时调整。当样本退市时，将其从指 ...

| 排名 | 板块名称 | 主力资金净流出 (亿元) | 主力资金净流出率(%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 机械设备 | -7.14 | -1.75 | | 2 | 房地产 | -6.79 | -7.41 | | 3 | 基础化工 | -4.64 | -1.32 | | ব | 矢药 | -4.10 | -1.22 | | 5 | 电子 | -3.18 | -0.49 | 星矿主力资金监控：早盘买入前十榜（截止时间： 10 时 50 分) 主力资金监控：紫金矿业净买入超4亿 智通财经4月21日电，智通财经星矿数据显示，今日早盘主力资金净流入计算机、有色金属、工业金属等板块，净流出机械设备、房 地产、基础化工行业等板块，其中计算机板块净流出超15亿元。个股方面，紫金矿业上涨，主力资金净买入4.95亿元位居首位，青 岛金王、大位科技、维维股份获主力资金净流入居前；红宝丽遭净卖出超5亿元，中兴通讯、罗博特科、硕贝德主力资金净流出额居 前。 | 排名 | 板块名称 | 主力资金净流入 (亿元) | 主力资金净流入率(%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

Group 1 - The report highlights that in Q4 2024, the company achieved a record high revenue of 7.79 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 5.43% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 17.99% [4][5] - The company reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of 0.14 billion yuan in Q4 2024, which represents a significant year-on-year decrease of 82.53% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 53.21% [5][6] - The company is focusing on accelerating project construction as a key strategy for growth, with the TianTai intelligent manufacturing production base project expected to enhance production capacity significantly [9][10] Group 2 - The report indicates that Zhongfu Industrial's revenue for 2024 reached 22.76 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 21.12%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 0.7 billion yuan, down 39.3% [12][13] - In Q4 2024, Zhongfu Industrial's revenue was 6.03 billion yuan, up 17.05% year-on-year, but the net profit was negative at -0.24 billion yuan, a drastic decline of 106.46% [12][13] - The report notes that the decline in aluminum oxide prices is expected to significantly reduce production costs for Zhongfu Industrial, enhancing profit margins in the future [13][14] Group 3 - The report states that Meinian Health achieved a revenue of 10.7 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 1.76% year-on-year, with a net profit of 2.82 billion yuan, down 44.18% [17][18] - The company reported that its health check service revenue was 10.3 billion yuan, with a total of 15.38 million visits, indicating a 12% decline in customer visits [18][19] - The integration of AI technology is expected to enhance revenue generation and operational efficiency, with AI-related income reaching 220 million yuan in 2024 [18][20] Group 4 - The report discusses the global first humanoid robot marathon held in Beijing, indicating a growing interest and investment in humanoid robotics [21][22] - The establishment of the K-Humanoid Robot Alliance in South Korea, with a budget of 200 billion won (approximately 10.24 billion yuan), signifies a national commitment to advancing humanoid robotics [23][24] - The report emphasizes that the humanoid robot industry is poised for significant investment opportunities, likening its potential to the "ChatGPT moment" in technology [31][32] Group 5 - The report indicates that Electric Science Digital achieved a revenue of 10.7 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7.05%, with a net profit of 5.51 billion yuan, up 10.77% [33][34] - The company is focusing on digital products and industry digitalization, with significant growth in its digital finance and smart manufacturing sectors [34][35] - The report projects that the company's revenue will continue to grow, with estimates of 11.84 billion yuan, 13.17 billion yuan, and 14.98 billion yuan for 2025-2027 [39][40] Group 6 - The report highlights that Huading Co. achieved a revenue of 1.156 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 44.53%, while the net profit increased by 17.26% to 0.94 billion yuan [41][42] - The company’s nylon segment reported a revenue of 1.133 billion yuan, with a production increase of 3.99% year-on-year [44][45] - The report notes ongoing project investments aimed at enhancing production capacity and market share in the high-end nylon segment [46]