Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Copper**: The price of Shanghai copper declined in the afternoon. The rebound of the US dollar index and the slight increase in the social inventory of electrolytic copper on Thursday put pressure on the copper price. The short - term price dropped, and attention should be paid to the technical support at the previous price center of 78,000 [5]. - **Aluminum**: The aluminum price showed a weak shock in the afternoon, and the monthly spread continued to decline. The good domestic macro - atmosphere and the strong performance of the black sector provided support. The continuous destocking of electrolytic aluminum and good domestic demand also supported the price. The price may continue to rise strongly, and attention can be paid to the support of the 5 - day moving average [6]. - **Nickel**: The nickel price fluctuated below 119,000, with little change in the position. It has been weak in the non - ferrous sector since last week due to industrial and news factors. The price shows signs of stabilizing in the short term, and attention should be paid to the technical pressure at 120,000 [7]. 3. Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: From January to May 2025, China's cumulative copper product output was 9.537 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.2%. The top three provinces in terms of output were Jiangxi, Zhejiang, and Jiangsu. Chile's Potrerillos copper smelter is expected to resume operation at the end of July [9]. - **Aluminum**: In May 2025, China's alumina output was 748,800 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.0%; the cumulative output from January to May was 3.7401 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.5%. The electrolytic aluminum output in May was 382,800 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.0%; the cumulative output from January to May was 1.859 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.0% [10]. - **Nickel**: On June 19, the mainstream reference contract for refined nickel in the Shanghai market was the Shanghai nickel 2507 contract. The prices of different types of nickel were provided, such as the price of Jinchuan electrolytic nickel was 121,480 yuan/ton [10]. 4. Related Charts - **Copper**: The report includes charts of copper basis, electrolytic copper domestic explicit inventory, LME copper注销仓单比例, copper monthly spread, overseas copper exchange inventory, and SHFE warehouse receipt inventory [11][13][14]. - **Aluminum**: There are charts of aluminum basis, aluminum monthly spread, electrolytic aluminum domestic social inventory, electrolytic aluminum overseas exchange inventory, alumina trend, and alumina inventory [23][25][27]. - **Nickel**: Charts of nickel basis, nickel monthly spread, LME nickel inventory, SHFE nickel inventory, LME nickel trend, and nickel ore port inventory are provided [36][38][40].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish [4] - Arbitrage: Neutral [4] 2. Core View of the Report - Downstream buyers are reluctant to buy at high prices, mainly consuming inventory, leading to poor spot market transactions and a further decline in spot premiums [3] - The TC of domestic zinc ore remains stable, the import window for zinc ore is closed, domestic ore has an advantage over imported ore, and the TC of imported ore in the third - quarter overseas continues to rise [3] - Smelters' raw material inventory is still sufficient, and the upward trend of the ore end remains unchanged [3] - Smelting profits remain stable, and the long - term high - growth supply expectation remains unchanged [3] - Consumption performance is unexpectedly strong, the zinc alloy operating rate is still increasing, and the social inventory of zinc ingots has not shown a trend of accumulation, possibly due to the zinc alloy reservoir effect [3] - In the short term, be vigilant about energy disturbances caused by the Middle East crisis [3] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Important Data - **Spot**: The LME zinc spot premium is -$30.04/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price rose by 190 yuan/ton to 22,200 yuan/ton, and the spot premium fell by 25 yuan/ton to 155 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price rose by 170 yuan/ton to 22,190 yuan/ton, and the spot premium fell by 45 yuan/ton to 145 yuan/ton. SMM Tianjin zinc spot price rose by 180 yuan/ton to 22,210 yuan/ton, and the spot premium fell by 35 yuan/ton to 165 yuan/ton [1] - **Futures**: On June 18, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 21,885 yuan/ton and closed at 22,060 yuan/ton, up 185 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 123,695 lots, a decrease of 694 lots from the previous trading day, and the position was 97,228 lots, a decrease of 8,440 lots from the previous trading day. The highest price was 22,130 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 21,825 yuan/ton [1] - **Inventory**: As of June 16, 2025, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions monitored by SMM was 78,100 tons, a decrease of 3,600 tons compared with the same period last week. As of June 18, 2025, the LME zinc inventory was 128,250 tons, a decrease of 625 tons from the previous trading day [2] Market Analysis - **Spot Market**: Downstream buyers are reluctant to buy at high prices, mainly consuming inventory, resulting in poor spot market transactions and a further decline in spot premiums [3] - **Cost**: The TC of domestic zinc ore remains stable, the import window for zinc ore is closed, domestic ore has an advantage over imported ore, and the TC of imported ore in the third - quarter overseas continues to rise [3] - **Supply**: Smelting profits remain stable, and the long - term high - growth supply expectation remains unchanged [3] - **Consumption**: Consumption performance is unexpectedly strong, the zinc alloy operating rate is still increasing, and the social inventory of zinc ingots has not shown a trend of accumulation, possibly due to the zinc alloy reservoir effect [3] - **Risk**: In the short term, be vigilant about energy disturbances caused by the Middle East crisis [3]

美联储再度维持利率不变 ，陆家嘴金融论坛 预期落空 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025-06-19 宏观策略（外汇期货(美元指数)） 日度报告——综合晨报 报 市场预计 6 月 30 日 USDA 将把美豆种植面积上调 50 万英亩至 8400 万英亩。昨日国内进口巴西豆成本上升，沿海油厂豆粕现 货报价小幅上涨，下游成交意愿高涨。 有色金属（铜） 统计局：中国 5 月铜材产量同比增长 13.4% 美联储继续按兵不动，市场对鹰派声明有所担忧，美元阶段转 强抑制铜价，预计盘面继续高位震荡可能性更大。 能源化工（液化石油气） 美联储再度维持利率不变 点阵图预示年底前将降息两次 美联储最新利率会议维持利率水平不变，但是远期降息预期次 数减少，美元指数震荡走强。 宏观策略（国债期货） 央行行长潘功胜在 2025 陆家嘴论坛上宣布八项重磅举措 综 陆家嘴金融论坛并未公布宽货币政策，市场预期落空，但国债 期货跌幅极有限，这说明市场做多情绪已经升温。建议尽快布 局多头仓位。 合 农产品（豆粕） 晨 USDA 周度出口销售报告前瞻 美国 C3 库存累库 美国 C3 累库速率降低，镇海外放目前尚未冲击民用气市场。 | ...

2、证监会：从 2025 年 10 月 9 日起允许合格境外投资者参与场内 ETF 期权交易，交易目的限于套期保 值。 3、乘联分会：6 月 1-15 日全国乘用车新能源市场零售 40.2 万辆，同比增长 38%。 资金面：融资额+52.70 亿；隔夜 Shibor 利率-0.30bp 至 1.366%，流动性较为宽松；3 年期企业债 AA- 级别利率-0.48bp 至 2.8887%，十年期国债利率+0.40bp 至 1.6383%，信用利差-0.88bp 至 125bp；美国 10 年期利率+7bp 至 4.39%，中美利差+7.40bp 至-275.17bp。 文字早评 2025/06/19 星期四 宏观金融类 股指 前一交易日沪指+0.04%，创指+0.23%，科创 50+0.53%，北证 50-0.65%，上证 50-0.15%，沪深 300+0.12%， 中证 500-0.09%，中证 1000-0.10%，中证 2000-0.28%，万得微盘-0.62%。两市合计成交 11911 亿，较上 一日-161 亿。 宏观消息面： 1、证监会：重启未盈利企业适用科创板第五套上市标准；对第五套标准上市企业 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-06-18 锌现货升水持续回落 重要数据 现货方面：LME锌现货升水为-28.01 美元/吨。SMM上海锌现货价较前一交易日上涨10元/吨至22010元/吨，SMM 上海锌现货升贴水较前一交易日下跌40元/吨至180元/吨，SMM广东锌现货价较前一交易日上涨30元/吨至22020元/ 吨。SMM广东锌现货升贴水较前一交易日下跌20元/吨至190元/吨，SMM天津锌现货价较前一交易日上涨30元/吨 至22030元/吨。SMM天津锌现货升贴水较前一交易日下跌20元/吨至200元/吨。 期货方面：2025-06-17沪锌主力合约开于21955元/吨，收于21905元/吨，较前一交易日上涨105元/吨，全天交易日 成交124389手，较前一交易日减少39573手，全天交易日持仓105668手，较前一交易日减少10596手，日内价格震 荡，最高点达到21985元/吨，最低点达到21760元/吨。 库存方面：截至2025-06-16，SMM七地锌锭库存总量为7.81万吨，较上周同期减少-0.36万吨。截止2025-06-17，LME 锌库存为128875吨，较上一交易日减少1350吨。 ...

瑞财经 钟鸣辰近日，腾远钴业(SZ301219)发布2024年年度报告，归母净利同比大增81%。 | 报告期末母公司在职员工的数量(人) | 1, 207 | | --- | --- | | 报告期末主要子公司在职员工的数量（人） | 1, 282 | | 报告期末在职员工的数量合计(人) Comments of the many of the comments of the comments of the comments of the control of the contribution of the controlled ST LEWILL . | 2, 489 | | | 2024 年 | 2023 年 | 本年比上年增减 | 2022年 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(元) | 6. 542. 489. 420. 75 | 5.543.417.839.54 | 18.02% | 4. 800. 846. 632. 27 | | 归属于上市公司股东的 净利润(元) | 685, 229, 298, 53 | 378,075,083.21 | 81.2 ...

Group 1 - The article highlights the implementation of water resource tax incentives aimed at promoting water conservation among industries in China, effective from December 1, 2024, where companies achieving advanced water efficiency will receive a 20% tax reduction [1][3] - Henan Yuguang Zinc Industry Co., Ltd. reported receiving over 58,000 yuan in water resource tax benefits in the first quarter, reinforcing their commitment to increasing water-saving investments [1][2] - The list of taxpayers achieving advanced water efficiency in Henan province includes Henan Yuguang Zinc Industry Co., Ltd., Henan Jinli Jin Zinc Co., Ltd., and Henan Jinma Energy Co., Ltd., marking them as pioneers in water efficiency [1] Group 2 - The Jiyuan tax department has established a "one-on-one" service mechanism for key enterprises, providing tailored support to help them understand and apply for tax benefits related to water conservation [2] - Jiyuan tax authorities collaborate with water resources and finance departments to monitor and analyze enterprise water usage data, ensuring effective implementation of tax incentives [2] - Henan Jinma Energy Co., Ltd. has invested 200 million yuan in wastewater treatment and recycling projects, achieving significant water savings of over 2 million cubic meters annually [3] Group 3 - Henan Yuguang Zinc Industry Co., Ltd. has adopted innovative water-saving practices, reducing water usage to 8.42 m³/t of zinc ingot, significantly below national standards [3] - Henan Jinli Jin Zinc Co., Ltd. has implemented smart water-saving devices for real-time monitoring and precise control of production water usage [3] - The Jiyuan tax department emphasizes that water resource tax incentives are crucial for promoting green development among enterprises, aiming to enhance their water efficiency and contribute to sustainable economic growth [3]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The macro - environment is unstable due to uncertainties in Trump's tariff policy and the Fed's policy inclination. Fundamentally, due to less aluminum ingot casting, limited arrivals, low social and exchange warehouse inventories, and approaching delivery, the near - month futures is strong, which is expected to drive the far - month futures to be strong and deepen the B structure. After delivery, the tight market situation is expected to improve, and aluminum prices need to return to rationality [3][8]. 3. Summary by Directory Transaction Data - LME 3 - month aluminum price rose from 2451.5 yuan/ton to 2503 yuan/ton, an increase of 51.5 yuan/ton; SHFE aluminum continuous third contract rose from 19915 dollars/ton to 20060 dollars/ton, an increase of 145 dollars/ton; the Shanghai - London aluminum ratio decreased from 8.1 to 8.0; LME spot premium increased from - 4.91 dollars/ton to - 0.42 dollars/ton, an increase of 4.5 dollars/ton; LME aluminum inventory decreased from 363850 tons to 353225 tons; SHFE aluminum warehouse receipt inventory decreased from 47792 tons to 46193 tons; spot Yangtze River average price rose from 20217.5 yuan/ton to 20422 yuan/ton, an increase of 204.5 yuan/ton; spot premium decreased from 80 yuan/ton to - 230 yuan/ton, a decrease of 310 yuan/ton; South Reserve spot average price rose from 20080 yuan/ton to 20262 yuan/ton, an increase of 182 yuan/ton; Shanghai - Guangdong aluminum price difference increased from 137.5 yuan/ton to 160 yuan/ton, an increase of 22.5 yuan/ton; aluminum ingot social inventory decreased from 50.4 tons to 46 tons, a decrease of 4.4 tons; electrolytic aluminum theoretical average cost decreased from 16980.03 yuan/ton to 16965.29 yuan/ton, a decrease of 14.7 yuan/ton; electrolytic aluminum weekly average profit increased from 3237.47 yuan/ton to 3456.71 yuan/ton, an increase of 219.2 yuan/ton [4]. Market Review - Macro: US May CPI and PPI data were lower than expected, strengthening the expectation of cooling inflation pressure, and the market increased bets on the Fed's interest rate cut in September, causing the US dollar index to fall rapidly. Sino - US trade negotiations made progress, easing trade tensions and boosting market risk appetite. China's May CPI and PPI data showed different trends. The total value of China's goods trade imports and exports in the first five months increased by 2.5% year - on - year. - Consumption: The weekly aluminum downstream processing start - up rate decreased by 0.4% to 60.9%. During the off - peak season transition, the start - up rates of some sectors declined, with aluminum cables and industrial profiles performing well, and the aluminum plate, strip and foil sector entering the off - peak season more obviously. It is expected that the weekly start - up rate of downstream aluminum processing may decrease slightly by 0.1 percentage points next week. - Inventory: As of June 12, electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory decreased to 460,000 tons, a decrease of 17,000 tons compared with Monday; the inventory of aluminum rods in major domestic consumption areas decreased to 127,500 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons compared with Monday [5][6][7]. Market Outlook The macro - environment is unstable. Fundamentally, due to less aluminum ingot casting, limited arrivals, low social and exchange warehouse inventories, and approaching delivery, the near - month futures is strong, which is expected to drive the far - month futures to be strong and deepen the B structure. After delivery, the tight market situation is expected to improve, and aluminum prices need to return to rationality [3][8]. Industry News - Kazakhstan's Prime Minister discussed the project prospect of building a vertically integrated industrial park in Kazakhstan with the founder of Orient Hope Group. The first - phase project plans to build an alumina plant with an annual output of 2 million tons and an electrolytic aluminum plant with an annual output of 1 million tons. - The 2025 industrial energy - saving supervision tasks for 2797 enterprises were determined, including energy - efficiency special supervision for key industries such as electrolytic aluminum. - In May 2025, China's exports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products reached 547,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.60% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.19%. From January to May, the cumulative exports were 2.431 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.1% [9]. Related Charts The report provides 10 related charts, including price trends, ratios, premiums, spreads, and inventory seasonal changes of LME aluminum and SHFE aluminum [10][11][16].

2025.6.16-6.20 电解铝 期货品种周报 中线行情分析 大区间震荡，7月偏上涨。 中线趋势判断 1 趋势判断逻辑 n 现货企业套期保值建议 可考虑适量逢低配置期货虚拟库存 国内外显性库存处于历史偏低水平，2025年国内产量存在天花板且几内亚供 应仍存在一定的不确定性，需求端政策宽松预期升温+中美贸易局势阶段缓和， 但短期而言，传统需求淡季及订单下滑成为拖累。 2 19800以下可以考虑适当增配库存。 3 中线策略建议 品种交易策略 n 上周策略回顾 未来一周沪铝2507合约波动区间看19600-20200。 未来一周沪铝2507合约波动区间看20200-20800。 n 本周策略建议 【总体观点】 | | 2025年6月第2周 | | --- | --- | | 铝土矿市场 | 几内亚政局以及雨季等因素或对7月后到港量产生影响，近期国产矿石市场变化有限，北方山西、河南 | | | 两地矿石供应紧张局面延续，依旧主要受到政策面管控影响。 | | 氧化铝市场 | 截至6月12日，中国氧化铝建成产能为11240万吨，开工产能为8805万吨，开工率为78.34%。部分氧化 | | | 铝企业结束检修恢复生产 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The geopolitical risk in the Middle East remains high, and the uncertainty of the situation between Iran and Israel continues, which has a significant impact on the financial and commodity markets [1][12][13]. - The majority of financial data in May fell short of expectations, with corporate debt gradually becoming short - term, and the willingness of residents to actively increase debt remaining low. There is a need to observe the sustainability of the rebound in M1 growth rate [2][23][24]. - The A - share market is affected by external geopolitical risks, and the pressure on the molecular end of stock market pricing is still large. The next stage requires observation of domestic policy changes [3][27]. - The new bio - fuel policy in the United States will significantly tighten the balance sheet of US soybean oil and increase the demand for US soybean crushing, which will have a chain reaction on the prices of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil [4][31][32]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Financial News and Reviews 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Trump hopes that Iran and Israel can reach an agreement, and the 6 - month consumer confidence index of the University of Michigan has rebounded, with inflation expectations significantly falling. However, due to the impact of oil prices, US inflation still faces upward risks. Gold prices are driven by the military conflict between Israel and Iran, and the short - term market continues to focus on the situation in the Middle East [12][13]. - Investment advice: The short - term trend of gold prices is dominated by the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East, with increased volatility, so attention should be paid to risks [14]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The "Brigade of the Righteous" in Iraq warns that if the US intervenes in the conflict between Israel and Iran, it will attack US interests in the region. Trump claims that Iran and Israel "will reach an agreement" to suspend the conflict. The geopolitical risk remains high, and the US dollar index is expected to fluctuate in the short term [15][17][18]. - Investment advice: The US dollar index will fluctuate in the short term [19]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The consumer confidence index in June increased, and inflation expectations decreased. However, the intensification of the Middle East conflict may lead to concerns about re - inflation. If the oil price rises to $100 per barrel, the CPI in June may rebound to around 3%, increasing the difficulty of the Fed's decision - making. US stocks still face the risk of correction before the situation improves [20][21][22]. - Investment advice: Geopolitical risks increase inflation risks, and US stocks still have a risk of correction before the situation improves [22]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The financial data in May fell short of expectations. The fundamentals are still favorable for the bond market, and the long - term bullish view remains unchanged. However, short - term bonds will fluctuate in the near term, and it is recommended to lay out medium - term long positions on dips [23][24][25]. - Investment advice: It is recommended to lay out medium - term long positions on dips. Pay appropriate attention to T when going long on the long - end [25]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The A - share market is affected by external geopolitical risks, and the pressure on the molecular end of stock market pricing is still large. The next stage requires observation of domestic policy changes [3][27]. - Investment advice: It is recommended to allocate various stock index futures evenly to cope with the rotational pattern [27]. 3.2 Commodity News and Reviews 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - The US EPA proposed to increase the bio - fuel blending volume from 2026 to 2027, which will significantly tighten the balance sheet of US soybean oil and increase the demand for US soybean crushing. It will have a chain reaction on the prices of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil [4][31][32]. - Investment advice: US soybean oil still has room to rise, and palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil will follow suit, but the increase in rapeseed oil is expected to be relatively weak [32]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - The net profit of Cristal Union in the 2024/25 fiscal year decreased by 62%. The supply in Europe is sufficient, and the import from Ukraine is large, resulting in low sugar prices. The expected decline in Brazilian sugar cane production in 2025 increases the uncertainty of Brazilian sugar production [33][35]. - Investment advice: Zhengzhou sugar may rebound in the short term, but the overall weak pattern is difficult to change. Attention should be paid to the arrival rhythm of imported sugar, the quotation of processed sugar, and the performance of the external market [36]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - The inventory of port cotton continues to decline, and the USDA June report has a slightly positive impact on the cotton market, but the overall supply - demand pattern is still relatively loose. The downstream textile industry is in a off - season, which drags down cotton prices [37][39][40]. - Investment advice: The cotton market may fluctuate repeatedly. A cautious and slightly optimistic view is held on the future market, and attention should be paid to macro - cotton dynamics and downstream demand changes [41]. 3.2.4 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The five major varieties continue to de - stock slightly, but there is a differentiation among varieties. The demand for rebar and hot - rolled coil shows a downward trend, and the steel price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [42][44]. - Investment advice: It is recommended to adopt a rebound hedging strategy for the spot end [45]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The expected increase in the US bio - fuel blending standard will drive up the price of CBOT soybeans and domestic soybean meal futures. The supply of domestic soybean meal is expected to increase, and the spot basis will continue to be under pressure [46][48]. - Investment advice: The prices of CBOT soybeans and domestic soybean meal futures are expected to fluctuate strongly, and the spot basis of soybean meal will remain weak [48]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The spread between cassava starch and corn starch has narrowed. The supply - demand situation of corn starch may be gradually improving, and the spread between cassava starch and corn starch may temporarily stabilize [49]. - Investment advice: It is recommended to wait and see due to the complex influencing factors of the CS - C spread [50]. 3.2.7 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The price of wheat has fluctuated, and the substitution advantage of wheat has slightly increased. The spot price of corn is expected to rise first and then fall, and the basis is expected to strengthen [50][51]. - Investment advice: For the 07 contract, speculative long positions are recommended to take profits opportunely. For the 09 contract, shorting is not recommended, and it is expected to fluctuate with a first - strong - then - weak trend. Attention can be paid to the opportunity of shorting the 11 and 01 contracts at high prices [51]. 3.2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Alumina) - The national alumina inventory is 312.9 million tons, and large - scale discount transactions are gradually emerging. The market is oscillating weakly [52]. - Investment advice: It is recommended to wait and see [53]. 3.2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - The price of nickel is oscillating weakly at a low level. The cancellation of the price limit of downstream stainless steel has released market pessimism. The supply of nickel ore and nickel iron is in excess, and the medium - term price of nickel is expected to decline [54][55]. - Investment advice: In the short term, it is possible to sell put options on dips. In the medium term, attention can be paid to the strategy of shorting at high prices in Q3 [55]. 3.2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - The LME warehouse in Hong Kong is expected to receive the first batch of copper next week. The escalation of the Middle East geopolitical war may suppress copper prices through the impact on the US dollar index. The domestic inventory is decreasing, and the short - term price is difficult to decline trend - wise [56][59][60]. - Investment advice: Unilaterally, it is recommended to wait and see as copper prices are expected to continue to oscillate at a high level. For arbitrage, wait for the opportunity of positive inter - period arbitrage of Shanghai copper [60]. 3.2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - After the rebound, the downstream's willingness to take delivery is insufficient, and the basis of the spot market is weakening. The short - term fundamentals are difficult to improve, and the market may oscillate weakly [61][62]. - Investment advice: It is not recommended to chase short positions at the current level. Existing short positions can be held, and a strategy of shorting on rebounds is recommended [62]. 3.2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - Anhui Huasheng's polysilicon wafer technical transformation and expansion project has been accepted for environmental assessment. The spot trading volume is low, and the price of some products is declining. The supply in June is expected to be 960,000 tons, and there is a possibility of inventory reduction. The decision of leading enterprises on production reduction will have a major impact on the market [63][64][65]. - Investment advice: Before the leading enterprises reduce production, the market is bearish. A strategy of short - term shorting and long - term going long is recommended, and attention should be paid to the position management [65]. 3.2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The production of industrial silicon in major producing areas has increased. The supply in Sichuan and Yunnan is expected to increase. The demand is still weak, and the spot price is difficult to rebound significantly [66][67]. - Investment advice: The futures market has rebounded. It is expected to oscillate at a low level, and it is recommended to short lightly after the rebound. Attention should be paid to changes in the supply side and the cash - flow risks of large enterprises [67]. 3.2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The silver pricing coefficient of lead concentrates in June has not changed. The supply of lead is expected to increase, and the demand is expected to be weak until July. The short - term rise of lead prices is temporary, and the medium - term demand may increase marginally [68][69][70]. - Investment advice: In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see and look for opportunities to buy on dips, paying attention to the pressure around 17,000 yuan. For arbitrage, it is recommended to wait and see for both inter - period and internal - external arbitrage [70]. 3.2.15 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - Some zinc oxide enterprises are facing environmental inspections, resulting in production cuts. The supply of zinc is expected to increase, and the demand is expected to weaken in the medium term. The inventory is at an inflection point, and the price is expected to decline [71][72]. - Investment advice: Unilaterally, look for opportunities to short at high prices and increase positions appropriately on rebounds. For arbitrage, it is recommended to wait and see for the inter - period spread, and maintain the strategy of positive internal - external arbitrage in the medium term [72]. 3.2.16 Energy and Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The EU carbon price has risen slightly, affected by the geopolitical tension in the Middle East and the shutdown of a French nuclear power plant. The short - term market needs to pay attention to the development of the geopolitical situation [73][74]. - Investment advice: The EU carbon price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [74]. 3.2.17 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - Israel has attacked Iranian energy infrastructure, and the US oil rig count has decreased. The risk of supply in the Middle East has increased, and oil prices are expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall in the short term [75][76][77]. - Investment advice: Oil prices are expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall in the short term as the market has not fully priced in the geopolitical conflict risk [77]. 3.2.18 Energy and Chemicals (PTA) - The spot price of PTA has risen, but the demand is in a seasonal off - season, and the supply is expected to increase. The short - term rise is mainly due to the impact of crude oil prices. It is not recommended to chase long positions directly, and short positions can be established after the geopolitical situation eases [78][79][80]. - Investment advice: It is not recommended to chase long positions directly in the short term, and short positions can be established after the geopolitical situation eases [80]. 3.2.19 Energy and Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The export quotes of bottle - chip factories have increased, and the market trading atmosphere has improved. However, the industry is under supply pressure, and the processing fee is under pressure. Some large factories have plans to reduce production [81][82]. - Investment advice: The processing fee is expected to fluctuate at a low level in the short term. It is possible to establish long positions for expanding the bottle - chip processing fee at low valuations [82]. 3.2.20 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The trading of liquid caustic soda in Shandong has remained stable. The supply is relatively stable, and there are still maintenance plans in the future. The demand is affected by the inventory of alumina and the wait - and - see attitude of non - aluminum downstream and traders [83]. - Investment advice: The 09 contract of caustic soda is affected by the overall weakness of commodities, but the large discount of the 09 contract will limit the downward space [84]. 3.2.21 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - The spot price of imported wood pulp has continued to decline, and the demand from downstream paper mills is weak [84]. - Investment advice: The fundamentals of pulp have changed little, and the market is expected to oscillate [86]. 3.2.22 Energy and Chemicals (PVC) - The spot price of PVC powder has risen, but the downstream purchasing enthusiasm is low, and the market trading is average [87]. - Investment advice: The fundamentals of PVC have changed little, and the market is expected to oscillate [87]. 3.2.23 Energy and Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The price of soda ash in the South China market is general, and the supply is expected to remain high in the short term. The demand from photovoltaic glass is expected to decline, and the market is bearish [88][89]. - Investment advice: In the medium - term expansion cycle, the strategy of shorting soda ash at high prices is still maintained [89]. 3.2.24 Energy and Chemicals (Float Glass) - The spot price of float glass has continued to decline, and the market demand is weak. With the arrival of the high - temperature and rainy season, the demand will decline seasonally, and the supply - demand imbalance will intensify [90][91]. - Investment advice: Before the inventory of original - sheet manufacturers is substantially reduced, the spot price of float glass still has room for downward adjustment. The short - term market may be affected by the overall risk preference, and the rebound driven by short - covering is difficult to sustain [91].