银叶投资许巳阳：今年更看好权益机会 【导读】银叶投资首席投资官许巳阳：宏观研究范式发生转变，今年更关注权益结构性机会 "这几年宏观研究的范式发生巨变，资产配置方法论也需要系统性升级，既要跟踪宏观总量，更需 要深入产业毛细血管。"近期银叶投资首席投资官许巳阳在接受中国基金报记者采访时说。 银叶投资是国内百亿元级债券私募机构，2009年成立至今已走过16个年头，经历了资本市场的跌宕 起伏，公司打造了以固收策略为基础，宏观、权益、量化及衍生品多元配置的体系。 许巳阳表示，今年债券投资须做好波段和防御，更看好国内权益市场。今年DeepSeek作为一个支 点，撬动了科技股行情，接下来对中国资产的价值重估，或带来全球资金的资产配置再平衡，中国科技 板块有望成为新一轮全球资金迁徙的重点配置方向。 从研究总量到更关注微观、行业 DeepSeek作为支点撬动科技股行情 翻开履历，许巳阳，复旦大学国际金融系本科、香港大学MBA，拥有20多年的金融从业经历，曾 在公募基金、外资银行和券商工作过，曾任瑞士银行中国区外汇、利率和信用交易主管、执行董事； 2014年他加入银叶投资，如今担任公司首席投资官。 他坦言，过去多年大部分的工作， ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of private equity firms in the capital market and highlights the collaborative efforts to enhance their development through strategic partnerships and resource integration [1][2][3]. Group 1: Event Overview - The "Gold Aircraft Carrier" private equity salon hosted by Changjiang Securities aimed to foster high-quality development in the private equity sector by facilitating deep exchanges and cooperation among various financial institutions and private equity managers [1]. - The event featured participation from over twenty private equity managers and various funding institutions, focusing on building an open and collaborative financial service ecosystem [1]. Group 2: Industry Insights - Changjiang Securities' Vice President, Xiao Jian, noted that private equity institutions are crucial for value discovery and resource allocation in the capital market, especially as the "1+N" policy framework unfolds [2]. - The integration of artificial intelligence in finance is seen as a significant opportunity for the industry, marking a new wave of technological transformation [2]. Group 3: Funding Institutions' Perspectives - Representatives from various funding institutions expressed optimism about investment opportunities in the secondary market and emphasized the importance of collaborating with trustworthy private equity managers for mutual benefits [4][5]. - Specific strategies discussed included focusing on quantitative strategies, low-volatility products, and macroeconomic strategies to adapt to changing market conditions [4][5]. Group 4: Private Equity Managers' Perspectives - Private equity managers shared their investment focuses for 2025, highlighting sectors such as innovative industries, consumer trends, and domestic pharmaceuticals [6][7]. - Emphasis was placed on maintaining a balanced investment approach while seeking opportunities in high-potential sectors and avoiding over-concentration in any single industry [6][7]. Group 5: Market Outlook - Several speakers expressed a positive outlook for the bond market and the overall stock market in 2025, citing factors such as improved economic conditions and the potential for a structural bull market driven by technological advancements [8][9]. - The article concludes with a call for continued collaboration among private equity firms, funding institutions, and Changjiang Securities to enhance the quality of the capital market and support long-term investment strategies [9].

Core Viewpoint - The letter from the private equity manager emphasizes a conservative investment strategy that focuses on high-quality traditional industries while cautiously approaching emerging sectors, resulting in strong long-term returns despite market volatility [4][10]. Group 1: Investment Strategy - The investment approach is characterized by a "conservative practice," focusing on holding quality companies in traditional industries, which has led to substantial returns over the past decade [4]. - The fund has achieved a cumulative return of ***% and an annualized return of ***% since its inception, outperforming the CSI 300 index, which rose less than 70% during the same period [4]. - The strategy includes selling stocks during valuation bubbles and repurchasing during downturns, maintaining a balanced portfolio with a stable ROE around 15% [4][18]. Group 2: Market Insights - The letter discusses the importance of understanding disruptive forces from new technologies and business models that could impact cash flow-generating companies [6]. - It highlights the shift in asset classes, with a recent increase in internet stocks exceeding 20% of the portfolio, reflecting a strategic pivot towards undervalued sectors [10][12]. - The competitive landscape is becoming clearer, with companies focusing on dividend distribution and share buybacks, supported by a more favorable regulatory environment [12]. Group 3: Economic Context - The letter notes that China's fixed capital formation has exceeded 40% of GDP over the past 20 years, indicating a historical limit to the economy's capacity [28]. - It emphasizes the need for a long-term low-interest-rate environment to utilize stable cash flows for societal benefits, which is essential for sustaining China's low-interest and high-dividend strategies [29]. - The economic recovery is anticipated as the country transitions from a period of consolidation to growth, urging investors to reassess their asset allocations between Chinese and U.S. markets [47].

本周 推荐阅读： 在去年底今年初我们听过的20多场私募交流中，大家基本共识的"港股性价比最高"，很快就迎来了这波 市场的正反馈。 当然，短期波动也在加剧中。 翻看一些私募1月底的产品月报，大家或多或少都谈到了特朗普上台后的新政以及DeepSeek震惊世界的 一跃。 都在重新审视扑面而来的现实：新政带来的剧烈震荡，以及AI开启应用时代，对于中国资产价 值的重估。 1、最近"海湖庄园协议"在华尔街和国内金融圈谈论度都很高。近日桥水基金创始人瑞·达利欧在对话中也被 问到看法： 《 "美债危机恐三年内爆发"，达利欧谈"海湖庄园协议"，警告美元会相对黄金等硬资产发生贬 值 》 2、海外投资大师对中国市场的乐观比很多人都要多，而且他还喊出了，卖美股买中国资产，要知道这可是 在美股刚刚开始调整那会儿： 《 "逆向投资大师"安东尼·波顿罕见发声：我们正处于中国新一轮牛市的初期 阶段 》 3、 "泡沫研究专家"最近的对话： 《 GMO传奇大佬格兰桑最新谈美股泡沫，称电力需求还会高速增 长 》 4、从巴菲特角度，黄金是"非生息资产"，他永远不会投。但对于做配置的投资人而言，比如达利欧， 这是组合当中跟其他资产非常不相关的品种，可 ...