在资本市场，时间是检验策略的试金石。由于资本市场环境变化较快，很多时候，某一种策略只在阶段内奏效，所以有了"一年翻倍者众，三年翻倍者 寡"的说法。要想持续获利，就需要持续地学习和进行策略迭代。 5年、10年对于资本市场而言，是一个漫长的时间，足以考验基金经理和投资策略的真实能力。为了给读者提供一些参考，笔者梳理出了"长跑型"私募产 品，包括在近五年业绩表现突出的产品和成立超10年的"双十基金"产品。 | 排 | 产品简称 | 二级策略 | 产品规模 今年来 成立以来 (万元) 收益 年化收益 | 成立日期 | 公司简称 | 公司规模 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 7: | 를 新智达成长一 | :主观多头 | | 2015-01-12 : | 新智达投资 | 20-50亿 | | | 凯尼会观策略9号 | | | | 深圳 | | | 2 | | 宏观策略 | | 2015-07-29 | | 50-100亿 | | | 证券投资 | | | | 凯车投资 | | | 3 | 環恒十郎 | 丰观多头 | 私募排排网官 | 2015-06-26 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has shown a strong performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching 3700 points, indicating a recovery from previous economic shocks. A trend of gradual growth has emerged since April 27, following the impact of U.S. tariffs, leading to a widening gap between stock strategies and other primary strategies [1]. Summary by Categories Market Performance - The A-share market has entered a four-month trend of gradual growth, with a noticeable recovery in the index [1]. - Quantitative long strategies and subjective long strategies have both performed well, with quantitative long strategies achieving a return of 25.02% and subjective long strategies averaging 5.86% in July [3][4]. Strategy Performance - Among various strategies, subjective long strategies have outperformed quantitative long strategies due to their concentrated positions and flexibility in trading [4]. - The average return for subjective long strategies across different scales of private equity funds has been significant, with the highest returns observed in the 10-20 billion category at 25.43% [18]. Fund Performance - The top-performing subjective long products in the 100 billion category include "和谐汇一医疗创新B类份额" managed by 施跃, achieving a return of ***% [7][5]. - In the 50-100 billion category, "同犇22期" managed by 童驯 led with a return of ***% [14]. - The 20-50 billion category saw "丹羿鹏程1号1期" managed by 王帅 achieving a return of ***% [17]. - In the 10-20 billion category, "能敬价值优选二号" managed by 孙杰 led with a return of ***% [21]. - The 5-10 billion category was topped by "优波三号A类份额" managed by 陈龙 with a return of ***% [24]. - The 0-5 billion category saw "子衿云杉" managed by 邹凯 achieving a return of ***% [28]. Investment Insights - Fund managers are focusing on sectors such as innovative pharmaceuticals and medical devices, indicating a re-evaluation of high-quality assets in China [8]. - The market is currently in a phase where investors are cautious about the sustainability of earnings for companies that have seen significant price increases [8].

Market Performance - In the first half of 2025, the A-share market showed strong resilience amid a complex domestic and international environment, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 2.75% and the North Stock 50 Index leading with a remarkable increase of 39.45% [1] - The total trading volume in the A-share market reached 162.68 trillion yuan, significantly higher than the 101 trillion yuan recorded in the same period of 2024, indicating a rapid increase in market activity [1] Private Equity Fund Performance - Among the 495 billion private equity products with reported performance, the average return for the first half of the year was 10.18%, with an excess return of 8.84% [2] - There was a notable divergence in performance among different strategies, with quantitative long strategies achieving an average return of 18.84%, while subjective long strategies only averaged 3.32% [1][2] Strategy Breakdown Quantitative Long Strategies - A total of 194 quantitative long products were reported, with the top performers identified based on excess returns [3] - The leading product was from Longqi Technology, with significant returns attributed to favorable market conditions and a strong belief in the potential for excess returns in the Chinese market [7][8] Subjective Long Strategies - There were 165 subjective long products, with the average return being only 3.32%, highlighting a stark contrast with quantitative strategies [4][11] - The top-performing product in this category focused on medical innovation, benefiting from strong market trends in the healthcare sector [11] Market Neutral Strategies - The average return for 35 market-neutral products was reported at 6.62%, with notable performers including Mingcong Investment and Weiguan Asset [12][14] Multi-Asset Strategies - The average return for 46 multi-asset strategies was 6.45%, with several products achieving significant returns [15][17] Futures and Derivatives Strategies - The average return for 25 futures and derivatives products was 3.82%, with the top product from Xinhong Tianhe showing strong performance [19][22]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market demonstrated strong resilience in the first half of 2025, with a "volatile upward and structurally differentiated" trend, as evidenced by the performance of various indices and a significant increase in trading volume [2] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 2.75%, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.48%, and the ChiNext Index gained 0.53%. The North Stock 50 Index, representing small-cap stocks, saw the highest increase of 39.45% [2] - Total trading volume in the A-share market reached 162.68 trillion yuan, significantly higher than the 101 trillion yuan recorded in the same period of 2024, indicating a rapid increase in market activity [2] Private Equity Fund Performance - In the first half of 2025, 495 products from billion-yuan private equity firms reported performance, with an average return of 10.18% and an excess return of 8.84% [2][3] - There was a notable divergence in performance among different strategies, with quantitative long strategies achieving an average return of 18.84%, while subjective long strategies only averaged 3.32% [2][3] Strategy Breakdown Quantitative Long Strategies - A total of 194 quantitative long products were analyzed, with the top performers based on excess returns [4] - The top 10 quantitative long products included firms such as Longqi Technology and Stable Investment, with Longqi Technology's product leading the list [5][8] Subjective Long Strategies - There were 165 subjective long products, with an average return of 3.32%, indicating a significant performance gap compared to quantitative strategies [8] - The top performers in this category included Harmony One Asset and Evolutionary Asset, with a focus on sectors like medical innovation [12][9] Market Neutral Strategies - 35 market-neutral products were evaluated, with the top 10 showing an average return of ***% [13] - Notable firms in this category included Mingyuan Investment and Micro博易 [16] Multi-Asset Strategies - 46 multi-asset products were reviewed, achieving an average return of 6.45% [17] - The leading product in this category was from Blackwing Asset, which demonstrated strong performance [19] Futures and Derivatives Strategies - 25 products in the futures and derivatives category were analyzed, with an average return of 3.82% [20] - The top product was from Xinhong Tianhe, which achieved significant excess returns [23]

Core Viewpoint - The article analyzes the performance of various private equity funds in the first half of 2025, highlighting the average win rates and returns across different fund sizes and strategies, with a notable emphasis on the superiority of quantitative strategies over subjective ones [2][10]. Group 1: Overall Performance - In the first half of 2025, 2,592 stock strategy products had an average win rate of 56.34%, with 979 products achieving a win rate above 60%, accounting for approximately 37.78% [2][4]. - The average win rates by fund size are as follows: over 100 billion (58.22%), 50-100 billion (57.63%), 20-50 billion (57.29%), 10-20 billion (57.08%), 5-10 billion (55.61%), and 0-5 billion (55.40%) [2][4]. Group 2: Performance by Strategy - Among 1,752 subjective long products, the average win rate was 54.76% with an average return of 11.51%, while 592 quantitative long products had an average win rate of 59.38% and an average return of 17.54%, indicating that quantitative products outperformed subjective ones in both metrics [2][10]. Group 3: Top Performing Funds - The top-performing products in the over 100 billion category included "微观博易-宝途二号B类份额" managed by 微观博易, achieving a win rate of ***% and a return of ***% [5][7]. - In the 50-100 billion category, "同犇22期" managed by 同犇投资 had the highest return of ***% and a win rate of ***% [11][13]. - The leading product in the 20-50 billion category was "盛冠达股票量化2号C类份额" managed by 盛冠达, with a win rate of ***% and a return of ***% [16][19]. - For the 10-20 billion category, "上海晨鸣精选A类份额" managed by 晨耀私募 had a win rate of ***% and a return of ***% [20][21]. - In the 5-10 billion category, "量盈日升专享1号A类份额" managed by 量盈投资 achieved a win rate of ***% and a return of ***% [23][25]. - The top product in the 0-5 billion category was "九招股票量化多头一号B类份额" managed by 九招基金, with a win rate of ***% and a return of ***% [27][29].

Core Viewpoint - The macro strategy is expected to perform well this week, with a recovery in various asset classes, including Chinese equities, bonds, gold, and oil, indicating a favorable environment for macro strategies [3]. Macro Strategy - The macro strategy is anticipated to show improvement, benefiting from the recent rise in Chinese equities and bonds, as well as overseas assets [3]. - The macro strategy faced challenges in the first half of the year due to the unpredictable nature of Trump's policies, which disrupted the typical low correlation among major asset classes [3]. - Recent trends suggest a return to deep negative correlation among major assets, indicating a more favorable environment for macro strategies moving forward [3]. Quantitative Long Strategy - The quantitative long strategy is expected to yield absolute returns, with stable excess returns due to increased trading volume, surpassing 1 trillion in daily transactions [5]. - Over 50% of stocks are showing upward movement, and market volatility remains within a normal range, supporting alpha generation for quantitative strategies [5]. - However, there is a caution regarding small-cap valuations, which are at a three-year high, indicating potential pullback risks [5]. Subjective Long Strategy - The subjective long strategy is projected to perform well, particularly in growth styles, with some differentiation in specific returns [7]. - The overall market is experiencing a steady upward trend, with positive PMI data and a preference for growth over value stocks [7]. - Continued net inflows from southbound capital are noted, with the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech performing well, despite high PB valuations [7]. Market Neutral Strategy - The market neutral strategy is expected to remain stable, with consistent excess returns in the equity segment and no significant impact from the hedging side [9]. Stock Index CTA - The stock index CTA strategy is anticipated to perform well in both intraday and daily strategies, with differentiation among products due to signal cycles [12]. Commodity Strategy - The commodity strategy is expected to show a reversal in performance, with mixed results across different segments, particularly in precious metals [15]. - The commodity sector has seen a general upward trend, although volatility remains present, posing challenges for previously dominant short positions [15]. Arbitrage Strategy - The arbitrage strategy, including ETF and options arbitrage, is expected to see slight gains, while commodity arbitrage remains stable [17]. - The ETF market has experienced a slight increase in trading volume, indicating a favorable trend for overall strategy performance [17].