Core Viewpoint - Tencent's stock performance shows positive momentum with a closing price of 526 HKD, reflecting a daily increase of 0.86% and a trading volume of 9.212 billion HKD, indicating active market participation [1] Technical Analysis - Multiple technical indicators suggest a "buy" signal with a strength of 14, indicating a favorable medium to long-term trend [1] - Various oscillators are in a "neutral" state, with the RSI at 63, suggesting a balanced short-term market sentiment [1] Support and Resistance Levels - The first support level for Tencent is at 510 HKD, with a second support at 494 HKD; the first resistance level is at 530 HKD, and the second at 558 HKD [3] - The stock is currently near its first resistance level, making the ability to break through this level crucial [3] - The system assesses a 54% probability of an upward movement, with a recent 5-day volatility of 2.9%, indicating potential trading opportunities [3] Product Performance - On July 17, 2025, Tencent's stock rose by 0.87% two days later, with related products like JPMorgan's bull certificate (58311) increasing by 11% and UBS's bull certificate (58237) by 7%, showcasing the leverage effect of these products [3] Notable Derivative Products - For bullish sentiment, Bank of China call options (16356) have a leverage of 14.3 times with a strike price of 600.5 HKD, while UBS call options (15943) have a leverage of 14.4 times, both offering good value [5] - For bearish sentiment, Bank of China put options (18276) have a leverage of 9.2 times with a strike price of 434.8 HKD, and UBS put options (17893) have a leverage of 9.7 times, suitable for risk-averse investors [6] Bull and Bear Certificates - For bullish outlooks, UBS bull certificates (58594) and JPMorgan bull certificates (58695) both have a leverage of 21 times with a redemption price of 507 HKD, presenting strong potential [7] - For bearish outlooks, UBS bear certificates (54414) have a leverage of 21.9 times with a redemption price of 550 HKD, and Societe Generale bear certificates (58795) have a leverage of 26.3 times with a redemption price of 546 HKD, indicating higher leverage but also increased risk [8]

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index is expected to rise towards 26,000 points due to the postponement of tariffs by the US and a stable economic outlook in mainland China, although corporate earnings improvements are limited [2] - Active trading in the Hong Kong market reflects a positive risk appetite, with capital rotating across different sectors [2] - New trade negotiations between China and the US are set to begin, contributing to a more favorable trade environment [2] Company Insights: Xtep International (1368) - Xtep's total retail sales volume (RSV) showed a slight year-on-year slowdown in Q2 2025, with online sales performing better than offline [9] - The company plans to gradually recover 100-200 stores for direct-to-consumer (DTC) transformation starting in Q4 2025, with a total of about 500 stores targeted for recovery by FY26E [9] - Xtep's management expects a net profit growth of over 10% year-on-year for FY25E, maintaining a stable retail discount level of 25-30% [9] Company Insights: Anta Sports (2020) - Anta reported stable performance in Q2 2025, with its main brand and FILA showing low single-digit and mid-single-digit growth, respectively [14] - The company has reaffirmed its FY25E guidance, expecting growth rates of high single digits for its main brand and over 30% for other brands [14] - Anta is focusing on optimizing its offline store structure and managing online discounts to maintain brand image and profitability [14] Financial Projections - Xtep's revenue is projected to grow from 8,423 million RMB in FY23A to 11,412 million RMB in FY25E, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 7% [10] - Anta's revenue is expected to increase from 10,074 million RMB in FY24A to 12,935 million RMB in FY26E, reflecting a robust growth trajectory [10] Valuation Metrics - Xtep's FY25E price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected at 9.6x, which is significantly below its 5-year average valuation [9] - Anta's FY25E P/E ratio is estimated at 17.0x, also below its 10-year average, indicating potential undervaluation [14]

Core Viewpoint - Tencent Holdings is currently experiencing a tug-of-war around the 500 HKD mark, with the stock price at 507 HKD, indicating a technical stalemate [1] Technical Analysis - The stock is barely above the MA10 at 499.91 HKD but is constrained by the MA30 at 506.84 HKD, showing mixed indicator performance [1] - The overall technical indicators suggest a "sell" signal with a strength of only 9 points, while the bullish-bearish strength indicator shows a "buy" signal [1] - The RSI is at 51, indicating a neutral zone, and a 2.8% five-day volatility reflects a strong market wait-and-see atmosphere [1] Key Support and Resistance Levels - Key support is at 487 HKD, with a strong support zone at 470 HKD; resistance is at 518 HKD, and a breakthrough could challenge 535 HKD [3] - The current probability of an upward movement is 54%, indicating a balance between bullish and bearish forces [3] Product Performance - UBS bull certificate (69944) has performed well, surging 49% in two days with the underlying stock up 1.19%, showcasing high leverage characteristics [3] - HSBC bull certificate (69321) also performed strongly, increasing by 44% [3] - For call options, Bank of China call certificates (13873 and 29579) recorded increases of 16% and 12%, respectively [3] Investment Options - Investors with a bullish outlook can consider Bank of China call certificate 29579, which offers a leverage of 14.8 times with the lowest premium among similar products [6] - For those expecting significant upward movement, Bank of China call certificate 13873 provides a leverage of 17.8 times, although its premium is slightly higher but still reasonable [6] - For investors preferring bull certificates, UBS bull certificate 69944 offers an actual leverage of 18.4 times with a low premium [6] Hedging Options - For cautious investors, Citibank put certificate 15235 offers a leverage of 22.3 times with a relatively low premium, making it a primary choice for bearish outlooks [10] - For expectations of significant downturns, Societe Generale bear certificate 60438 provides a high leverage of 30.6 times with a recovery price set at 522 HKD [10] - UBS bear certificate 61324 also features a leverage of 30.6 times, with a recovery price of 520 HKD, providing a good risk-return ratio [10]

Core Viewpoint - Tencent Holdings (00700) is currently experiencing a volatile trading pattern, with the latest price at 504 HKD, reflecting a 1.69% increase. The stock is above the 10-day moving average but faces resistance from the 30-day moving average, while the 60-day moving average provides significant support. The mixed technical indicators suggest uncertainty in the short-term price movement [1]. Technical Analysis - Key support levels to watch include 488 HKD (Support 1) and 471 HKD (Support 2) if a breakdown occurs. Resistance levels are at 519 HKD (Resistance 1) and 536 HKD (Resistance 2). The probability of an upward movement is estimated at 56%, but the 5-day volatility is only 2.2%, indicating a strong market wait-and-see sentiment [2]. Product Performance Review - On July 9, when Tencent's stock rose by 1.19%, related derivatives showed strong performance. The Bank of China call warrant (29579) had a notable two-day increase of 22%, while another call warrant (13873) rose by 18%. This demonstrates the leverage effect of call warrants in a moderate upward market [5]. Recommended Products - For call warrants, the Bank of China call warrant (29579) is highlighted, with an exercise price of 560.5 HKD and a leverage of 14.5 times, offering excellent cost-effectiveness. Investors seeking higher leverage may consider the Bank of China call warrant (13873) with a leverage of 17.2 times. For put warrants, the Bank of China put warrant (17569) and UBS put warrant (16669) offer leverage of 14.3 times and 16 times, respectively, with exercise prices at 447.8 HKD and 443.13 HKD, where the Bank of China put warrant has the lowest implied volatility, providing better risk control [8]. Selected Bull and Bear Products - Among bull products, HSBC bull warrant (69321) and UBS bull warrant (69944) are attractive, offering leverage of 20.2 times and 19 times, with redemption prices set at 485.8 HKD and 484 HKD. The UBS bull warrant's low premium makes it a preferred choice for bullish investors. For bear products, the Societe Generale bear warrant (60438) and UBS bear warrant (61324) provide impressive leverage of 29.6 times, with redemption prices at 522 HKD and 520 HKD, suitable for aggressive investors expecting a pullback in Tencent's stock [11].

Group 1: Market Sentiment and Technical Analysis - Investors are divided on the Hang Seng Index (HSI), with bullish investors entering at 24,000 points and bearish investors expecting a drop to the same level, deploying bear certificates with a redemption price of 24,888 [1] - Technical analysis indicates a "buy" signal for the HSI, with the first resistance level at approximately 24,600 points, and a potential upward test towards 25,000 points if this level is breached [1] - Investors are advised to choose bear certificates with redemption prices above the second resistance level of 25,000 to avoid immediate redemption risks, even if it means sacrificing some leverage [1] Group 2: Company-Specific Insights - WuXi Biologics (02269.HK) shows a temporary "buy" signal with 15 buy signals and no sell signals, but there are 9 neutral signals indicating caution; resistance levels are at 28.5 and 29.5 [3] - WuXi AppTec (02359.HK) has a "buy" signal with 14 buy signals and 4 sell signals, indicating potential upward movement with short-term resistance at 98 and 99.6 [6] - Trip.com Group (09961.HK) has a "strong buy" signal after a rebound from 434.2 to 499.8, with resistance levels at 505 and 531 [9] - AIA Group (01299.HK) shows a mixed outlook with 15 buy signals and 3 sell signals; resistance levels are at 71.6 and 73.8, suggesting caution before challenging 75 [11] - JD.com (09618.HK) is experiencing bearish sentiment with a "sell" signal, and investors are advised to wait for a drop to 115 before considering entry [14]

Core Viewpoint - Tencent Holdings (00700) is currently experiencing a tug-of-war around the 500 HKD mark, with the latest price at 503.5 HKD, reflecting a slight increase of 0.2%. The stock is at a critical turning point, with the 10-day moving average (505.48 HKD) and 30-day moving average (507.83 HKD) acting as resistance, while the 60-day moving average (497.11 HKD) provides support. The divergence in technical indicators, with MACD showing a sell signal and momentum oscillators indicating a buy signal, warrants close attention from investors [1]. Technical Analysis - The first support level is at 487 HKD, and the second support level is at 470 HKD, which are crucial for assessing short-term trends. On the upside, 518 HKD is a recent rebound high, and a breakthrough could lead to a challenge of the 535 HKD level. The stock's 5-day volatility is only 3.1%, indicating a relatively low volatility environment, which may suggest an impending directional choice [3]. - The market sentiment is currently neutral, as indicated by the bull-bear strength indicator. The RSI at 50 shows that the stock is neither overbought nor oversold, leaving ample room for future price movements. Although moving averages signal a strong sell, the stock has begun to recover some averages, and if it can maintain above 505 HKD in the coming days, it may reverse the short-term bearish trend [7]. Trading Strategy - In the current technical environment, short-term investors are advised to adopt a range trading strategy within the 487-518 HKD range. Conservative investors may wait for clear breakout signals; a volume-driven breakthrough above 518 HKD could be a signal to follow the trend, while a drop below 487 HKD would warrant caution for further downside risks. Given the low volatility, investors using derivative instruments should be particularly mindful of time decay [8]. Derivative Product Recommendations - For call options, the Bank of China call option 29579 offers a stable choice with a leverage of 14.5 times and an exercise price of 560.5 HKD, featuring the lowest premium and implied volatility among peers, effectively reducing holding costs. The Bank of China call option 13873 provides a higher leverage of 16.6 times with an exercise price of 563.5 HKD, suitable for investors expecting a rapid breakthrough. Both products are moderately out-of-the-money (approximately 11-12%) and are ideal for balancing risk and return [9]. - For bull certificates, UBS bull certificates 68481 and 68650 have redemption prices set at 477.2 HKD and 474 HKD, respectively, maintaining a safety margin of about 5-6% from the current price, offering leverage of 15.5 times and 14 times. These products are suitable for gradual accumulation when Tencent retraces to the 487 HKD support level. For bearish strategies, UBS bear certificate 61324 and Societe Generale bear certificate 60438 have redemption prices between 520-522 HKD, providing nearly 30 times leverage but with high risk, suitable only for experienced short-term traders with strict stop-loss measures [11][12].

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index (HSI) has stabilized above 24,000, closing at 24,148 points, with an increase in overall trading volume to HKD 213.2 billion [3] - There is a market expectation that if the HSI remains above 24,000, it could challenge levels between 24,500 and 25,000 [3][4] - The market is currently digesting momentum, with three IPOs scheduled for Wednesday, indicating investor interest in speculative opportunities [3] Investment Products - For bullish investors, a specific bull certificate (BOC Bull Certificate 68283) with a redemption price of 23,688 is recommended, as it is unlikely to be redeemed if the HSI stays above 24,000 [3][4] - The distribution of bull and bear certificates shows 65% of investors are bullish, while 35% are bearish, indicating a predominance of bullish sentiment [4] Individual Stocks - Alibaba (9988) has seen significant inflows of HKD 40 million over the past five trading days, making it the top stock in terms of capital inflow [9] - Meituan (03690) has experienced a 2.7% increase in stock price, reaching HKD 122, with bullish sentiment supported by recent trading activity [11] - Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Ltd. (CATL) has reached a new high of HKD 364, with a recommendation for a specific bull certificate (BOC Bull Certificate 16854) with a strike price of HKD 428.2 [15] Technical Analysis - The technical signals for the HSI indicate 14 buy signals and 2 sell signals, suggesting a bullish outlook [4][11] - For Xiaomi (01810), the stock price has recently reached a high of HKD 61.45, with a recommendation for a bull certificate (BOC Bull Certificate 15166) with a strike price of HKD 68 [20] - Tencent (00700) has found support at HKD 500, with potential to test previous highs around HKD 520, supported by recent buying activity in bull certificates [22]

Company Recommendations - Chow Tai Fook (1929) is recommended for buy with a target price of HKD 15.00, indicating a potential upside of 12.8%. The catalysts for this recommendation include the historical high gold prices and an increase in the proportion of high-margin fixed-price gold products, which is expected to narrow the year-on-year decline in same-store sales and revenue [10][13] - Pop Mart (9992) is also recommended for buy with a target price of HKD 300.00, representing a potential upside of 16.3%. The catalysts include the sustained popularity of key IPs like the Monsters series and the new IP CRYBABY, with expectations of an earnings surprise announcement in mid-July [14][16] Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index is currently facing resistance at 24,700 points, with recent trade talks between China and the U.S. leading to a temporary reduction in tariffs. However, the lack of progress in trade negotiations and limited corporate profit improvements are contributing to a slowdown in capital inflow [3][7] - The Chinese stock market is showing signs of recovery, with the Hang Seng Index recently surpassing 24,000 points, reflecting a positive market sentiment despite external pressures [7] Sector Focus - The Macau gaming sector is expected to perform well, with June's gaming revenue significantly exceeding expectations and the summer peak season approaching [8] - The brokerage sector is also highlighted, with the Shanghai Composite Index nearing 3,500 points and a continued trend of A+H share listings [8] Technical Analysis - Chow Tai Fook's stock price recently reached a 52-week high, supported by strong trading volume and a positive technical outlook, indicating potential for further gains [11][12] - Pop Mart's stock is currently supported at the 20-day moving average, with a favorable technical setup suggesting the possibility of new highs if it maintains above this level [15][18] Industry Growth - The traditional gold jewelry market in mainland China is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 22% from 2023 to 2028, with Chow Tai Fook holding a significant market share of 20% [13] - Pop Mart's sales growth in Q1 2025 is reported to be significantly higher than management's initial guidance, indicating strong demand for its IP products across both domestic and international markets [18]

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index is facing resistance at 24,700 points, with a projected P/E ratio of 11 times over the next 12 months [2] - The index closed at 23,916 points, down 0.64% year-to-date, while the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index fell 0.45% [4] - The market is experiencing a slowdown in capital inflow from mainland investors, and corporate earnings improvements are limited [2][5] Macro Focus - The U.S. Federal Reserve maintained interest rates, with expectations of two rate cuts totaling 0.5% this year, reflecting a cautious stance on future inflation uncertainties [3] - OPEC+ has agreed to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, exceeding market expectations, which may limit the upward potential of international oil prices [8] Company News - China Feihe (6186) expects a decline in half-year earnings, projecting net profit between 1 billion to 1.2 billion RMB, with a total dividend of no less than 2 billion RMB for the year [9] - Xiaomi (1810) has officially delivered its first batch of the YU7 SUV, priced between 253,500 to 329,900 RMB, with significant initial order numbers [9] - BYD (1211) reported a 54.4% month-on-month increase in sales of its Tang L model, reaching 12,700 units in June [9] - NIO (9866) announced that its L90 model will be priced below 300,000 RMB, with a product launch event scheduled [9] Industry Insights - The biotechnology sector is expected to benefit from new government measures supporting the high-quality development of innovative drugs [6] - Macau's gaming revenue in June increased by 19% year-on-year, significantly exceeding expectations, indicating a recovery in the gaming industry [6] - The textile industry anticipates improved orders as Nike's performance is expected to stabilize [6] Economic Indicators - China's smartphone shipments fell by 22% year-on-year in May, with 5G phone shipments decreasing by 17% [8] - The average price of international tickets from mainland China has decreased by 15% this summer, with significant drops in prices for flights to Canada and Japan [8]

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index is facing resistance at 24,700 points, with a projected P/E ratio of 11 times over the next 12 months, following a reduction in tariffs between the US and China [2] - The market sentiment remains cautious due to limited progress in US-China trade talks and a lack of significant economic stimulus from mainland China [2] Macro Focus - The Caixin China Services PMI fell to 50.6 in June, below expectations, indicating a slowdown in service sector expansion [3][8] - Retail sales of new energy vehicles in China increased by 25% year-on-year in June, with a penetration rate of 52.7% [8] - The Ministry of Commerce plans to strengthen guidance on second-hand vehicle exports, aiming to support the development of the second-hand car market [8] - The Macau gaming sector saw a 19% year-on-year increase in June gaming revenue, exceeding expectations [6] Company News - Alibaba issued over 12 billion HKD in zero-coupon convertible bonds for Alibaba Health [3] - Geely Auto is entering the Italian market, while XPeng's G7 model starts at 195,800 RMB [3] - HSBC Holdings sold its UK insurance business for approximately 260 million GBP [3] Industry Insights - The biotechnology sector is expected to benefit from new measures supporting the high-quality development of innovative drugs [6] - The textile industry anticipates improved orders as Nike's performance is expected to stabilize [6] - The solar industry is facing challenges due to low-price competition, prompting the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology to call for comprehensive governance [9] IPO Market - KPMG estimates that the total amount raised from new IPOs in Hong Kong could reach up to 250 billion HKD this year, with over 200 applications currently being processed [9]