Core Insights - CITIC Securities has identified ten major global macro opportunities for 2026, reflecting the ongoing macro paradigm shift and trend forces [1] Group 1: Investment Opportunities - Gold continues to see increased reserves, with precious metals maintaining a strong position [1] - Silver is undergoing a value reassessment, while strategic metal resources are emerging [1] - The integration of new technologies and manufacturing is accelerating commercial applications [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The construction of a unified large market is expected to release consumer demand [1] - Continued robust international trade and corporate expansion overseas [1] - The optimization of resource allocation through the "New Four Bulls" [1] Group 3: Financial and Economic Trends - Strengthening of Hong Kong's role as an international financial center [1] - The internationalization of the Renminbi and the benefits of Asia-Pacific integration [1] - The shift towards a more accommodative monetary policy in the U.S. is likely to benefit capital inflows into emerging markets [1]

Core Viewpoint - The global macroeconomic landscape is undergoing rapid restructuring, driven by technological revolutions, competition for scarce resources, and changes in the world currency system. The report outlines ten major investment opportunities for 2026 that align with these macro trends [3][42]. Group 1: Major Investment Opportunities - Opportunity 1: Gold will continue to be accumulated, maintaining a strong position for precious metals [4][6]. - Opportunity 2: Silver is undergoing a value reassessment, with strategic metal resources emerging [11][50]. - Opportunity 3: Electricity and energy will lead the way, solidifying the foundation for industrial construction [15][53]. - Opportunity 4: New technologies and manufacturing will accelerate the integration of commercial applications [17][57]. - Opportunity 5: The construction of a unified market will accelerate the release of consumer demand [19][59]. - Opportunity 6: Enterprises will continue to expand overseas and international trade will remain robust [21][62]. - Opportunity 7: The capital market's "new four bulls" will optimize resource allocation [25]. - Opportunity 8: The role of Hong Kong as an international financial center will be further strengthened [27]. - Opportunity 9: The internationalization of the Renminbi and the benefits of Asia-Pacific economic integration will be realized [30]. - Opportunity 10: The shift to a loose monetary policy in the U.S. will favor capital inflows into emerging markets [33]. Group 2: Economic Trends and Implications - The technological revolution is reshaping production and consumption paradigms across various industries [5][45]. - The competition among debt economies for scarce resources is altering global demand and reserves for raw materials [5][45]. - The structure of world currencies is experiencing significant changes in valuation, payment, reserve, financing, and reinvestment [5][45].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that China's foreign trade shows strong resilience, as evidenced by the significant growth in various certification documents issued by the national trade promotion system in November 2025 [1] Group 2 - In November 2025, the national trade promotion system issued a total of 791,600 certificates, including certificates of origin and ATA carnets, marking a year-on-year increase of 21.6% [1] - The value of non-preferential certificates of origin reached $32.109 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 1.37%, while the number of certificates issued was 402,400, up by 13.05% [1] - Preferential certificates of origin saw a value of $9.707 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 30.93%, with 327,500 certificates issued, which is a 38.36% increase [1] - The RCEP certificates of origin amounted to $0.898 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 20.33%, and the number of certificates issued was 34,789, up by 30.01% [1] - The continuous double growth in the value and number of preferential certificates indicates the effectiveness of China's foreign trade support policies, which have stimulated trade vitality [1] Group 3 - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized the promotion of high-quality development of the Belt and Road Initiative [2] - In 2023, the China Council for the Promotion of International Trade organized 407 outbound delegations, including 228 to Belt and Road countries, covering 42 countries and regions [2] - From January to November 2023, the national trade promotion system issued 4.9936 million certificates of origin and 559,600 commercial certificates for Belt and Road countries, significantly facilitating trade [2]

12月29日，香港特区政府就便利香港"企业对企业"(B2B)贸易文件电子化的法例修订建议发表咨询文 件，征询业界意见。正如2025至26年度《财政预算案》及2025年《施政报告》中公布，香港政府将参考 联合国国际贸易法委员会倡议的《电子可转让记录示范法》(《示范法》)，研究修订法例，便利贸易文 件电子化。 相关部门经仔细研究后，在咨询文件中提出就《电子交易条例》(第553章)(《条例》)及相关法例作出修 订的建议框架，以落实《示范法》的条文，包括适用范围、可靠性评估及运作需求等多个重要范畴，征 询业界意见。 有关法例修订将为使用电子可转让记录，即可转让文件或票据的电子版本提供法律依据。为了与国际标 准接轨并促进跨境互通，适用的《示范法》条文将尽量纳入《条例》。 国际贸易涉及出示或提交各类贸易文件，包括"企业对政府"(B2G)文件和B2B文件。目前业界已可利 用"政府电子贸易服务"和"贸易单一窗口"提交绝大部分B2G贸易文件，但部分B2B贸易文件由于法律要 求及业界习惯，现时仍主要依赖纸本方式交收。随着科技发展日新月异，该些文件的电子化已成为新趋 势。 香港商务及经济发展局(香港商经局)发言人表示："政府一直致 ...

Economic Growth Outlook - Hong Kong's economy is projected to grow by 3.2% in 2025, slightly higher than earlier forecasts, marking the third consecutive year of growth [1] - Key drivers of economic growth include strong export performance, solid fixed capital investment, and a stable consumption environment [1] Asset Market Performance - The Hong Kong stock market has shown significant improvement, with an average daily trading volume of nearly 260 billion HKD in the first 11 months of the year [1] - Initial Public Offering (IPO) fundraising has reached over 270 billion HKD, ranking first globally, with four listings among the top ten new stocks worldwide [1] - Follow-up financing for listed companies exceeded 510 billion HKD during the same period [1] - Net inflow of funds into Securities and Futures Commission-recognized funds registered in Hong Kong surpassed 41 billion USD in the first nine months, more than 1.5 times last year's total [1] Real Estate Market Trends - The residential property market remains active, with nearly 57,000 transactions recorded in the first 11 months, a year-on-year increase of approximately 16% [2] - Residential property prices rose by about 3%, while rental prices increased by around 4%, with positive market sentiment regarding the residential sector [2] - The office market also showed improvement, with transaction volume increasing by 74% in the first ten months compared to the previous year, and a slight decrease in vacancy rates for Grade A offices [2] Export and Investment Performance - Overall exports from Hong Kong performed well in the first three quarters of the year, with fixed capital investment rising by 2.5% during the same period [2] - Private consumption increased by 0.9% in the first three quarters, reversing the decline seen in the same period last year, benefiting from the recovery in the asset market and improved market sentiment [2] Future Economic Development - The outlook for Hong Kong's economy remains positive, with expectations of continued momentum into 2026, coinciding with the start of the national "14th Five-Year Plan" [2] - Hong Kong aims to enhance its role as an international financial center, accelerate the development of a world-class innovation and technology hub, and improve its international trade center functions [2] - The integration into national development strategies is expected to yield better development outcomes for Hong Kong, creating more quality job opportunities and benefiting the public [2]

现在再有人在你耳边吹人民币升值是天赐良机，是买买买的神助攻，那你可得多个心眼。 背后的故事不是利好，而是一记老到发腥的"黄鼠狼给鸡拜年"。 先看这波人民币的动态，截止今年12月15日，在岸人民币兑美元已经累计升值了3.44%，12月中旬更是一脚踩过了7.05关口，刷新逾一 年新高。 不少人在朋友圈刷着"这波赚了""出国便宜"，甚至有人蠢蠢欲动，准备把手头人民币全换成美元"套利"。 听着都眼熟吧，几年前也有那么一波"美元信仰者"，结果被汇率一个过山车送回解放前，终极结算一算，不仅没赚，连本金都缩水。 资产投资不能只看眼前的价格波动，得把整个战略局看懂，而这盘棋就是美国人精心布的。 这次是国际货币基金组织（IMF）发话了，堂而皇之地建议人民币"逐步升值"，每年最好涨个5%起步，还得带着物价一同往上拉。 表面看是为健康发展献计，实则挖好一口深井，把中国制造就往里推，这招不就是1985年针对日本那一套广场协议的翻版么？ IMF的一纸"建议"，把老美的算盘暴露得一清二楚：逼人民币升值、削弱中国出口优势、制造订单回流、瓦解中国的制造核心、把咱辛 苦赚的外汇储备捏在手里再猛贬一波…… 这不就是软刀子割肉、不战而屈人之兵？ ...

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong government aims to enhance its role as an international trade center amidst the evolving global economic landscape and the restructuring of supply chains [1] Group 1: International Trade and Supply Chain - Hong Kong will continue to serve as a "super connector" and "super value creator" in international trade [1] - The government is actively building a multinational supply chain management and trade financing center to support outbound enterprises [1] Group 2: Support for Mainland Enterprises - A new task force named "Mainland Enterprises Going Global" has been established to provide comprehensive support for mainland companies venturing abroad [1] - The task force will leverage public and private sector resources to offer services such as supply chain management, trade financing, treasury management, professional services, compliance consulting, and corporate training [1]

转自：成都日报锦观 蓉企蓉品出海的"娘家人"： 成都明年将新建10余个海外服务站 多个国家的企业和商协会代表相继来蓉寻求经贸合作。 在成都市供应链协会办公室，王智超凝神注视着一面墙，墙上贴有一幅巨大的世界地图，每新建一个供应链海外服务站，上面就会标注一颗 星。如今，海外服务站规模已达20个，这幅世界地图上"群星闪烁"。"明年还将新建10多个，进一步完善蓉企蓉品出海的海外综合服务网 络。"他说。 "服务站建设上规模了，找上门来的经贸合作也多了" 据王智超介绍，2025年，在海外服务站联动下，尼泊尔、巴基斯坦、乌兹别克斯坦等国家相关政务机构代表，俄罗斯、韩国、巴西等国家的企 业和商协会代表，相继来到成都寻求经贸合作，与成都企业进行面对面交流。 去年，在成都市口岸物流办指导下，市供应链协会牵头实施在全国首创建设"一带一路"供应链服务站，为推动本地企业出海发展、引进海外企 业来蓉发展，搭建起畅通海内外资源供需对接的"驿站"。王智超为市供应链协会常务副会长、秘书长，是海外服务站建设的"领头人"。 今年，成都加快了"一带一路"供应链海外服务站建设步伐。从尼泊尔加德满都、老挝磨丁再到阿联酋迪拜、印度尼西亚雅加达——11个海 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent developments in Hainan, China, particularly the establishment of a "multi-functional free trade account," are reshaping the financial landscape in Asia by enabling direct trade settlements in Renminbi, thereby challenging the dominance of the US dollar system [1][2][3] Financial Developments - Hainan's new financial mechanism allows Southeast Asian countries to conduct trade directly in Renminbi, bypassing the need to convert currencies to US dollars [2] - The cross-border Renminbi settlement volume in Hainan reached an impressive 484.5 billion yuan within the first 11 months before 2025, indicating a significant shift towards a Renminbi-centric trade system [3] Trade and Logistics - The direct shipping route from Indonesia to Hainan has reduced logistics costs by over 30%, significantly benefiting exporters like palm oil and durian traders [6][7] - The trade volume between Hainan and ASEAN countries surged from 23.66 billion yuan in 2020 to 57.91 billion yuan in 2024, more than doubling in just four years [14] Economic Impact - Hainan's policies are attracting foreign businesses, including Japanese firms, to establish operations in the region due to favorable tax rates and the potential for increased market access [9][11] - The zero-tariff items entering Hainan increased from approximately 1,900 to 6,600 after the implementation of new trade agreements, enhancing the region's appeal as a trade hub [16] Industry Growth - Hainan is becoming a significant connector between China and ASEAN, with local industries, including aerospace and food processing, experiencing substantial growth due to favorable policies [19][20][22] - Companies in Hainan are reporting significant cost savings and increased production capabilities, with some businesses claiming that savings from reduced tariffs could fund new ventures [20][22] Strategic Concerns - The success of Hainan's model poses a threat to countries that have historically dominated global trade and industry rules, as it demonstrates a viable alternative to existing systems [23]

在当前保护主义抬头的背景下，国际贸易体系比以往任何时候都更需要《公约》这类提升运行效率的全 球规则。全球通用的技术性法律空白长期存在，叠加逆全球化趋势，进一步加剧了进出口企业对降低贸 易成本的迫切需求。对全球贸易体系而言，《公约》是在多边主义面临严峻挑战的形势下，经多方努力 在联合国达成的务实成果，充分证明以规则为基础的国际合作依然有效且不可或缺。 更重要的是，这一国际公共产品凝聚了中国的实践经验与智慧。它将中欧班列等成熟本土实践提炼为全 球贸易规则，标志着中国正从国际规则的被动"接受者"向主动"缔造者"转变。对企业而言，《公约》绝 非新增一张单证那么简单，更是全球中小微企业及广大发展中国家相关企业便捷获取融资的重要工具， 能切实帮助企业在动荡复杂的国际市场竞争中更好生存发展。 王 立 上周，第80届联合国大会正式审议通过《联合国可转让货物单证公约》（以下简称《公约》），并授权 加纳于2026年举办签约仪式。这是自1924年《海牙规则》以来，中国在运输领域引领制定的第一部国际 公约，是中国在涉外法治领域制度性话语权不断增强的一次生动实践，具有划时代意义。 中国是该《公约》的主要提案国与核心推动方。《公约》的顺 ...