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【暑期档电影票房突破55亿】7月29日讯,据网络平台数据,截至7月29日,2025年暑期档电影总票房(含预售)破55亿。
news flash· 2025-07-29 07:01
暑期档电影票房突破55亿 金十数据7月29日讯,据网络平台数据,截至7月29日,2025年暑期档电影总票房(含预售)破55亿。 ...
爆款影片成推手!幸福蓝海乘势狂飙,今日再获20CM涨停
Ge Long Hui A P P· 2025-07-29 05:45
7月25日全国上映的《南京照相馆》,由曾执导2023年暑期档票房冠军《孤注一掷》的申奥担任导演,刘昊然、王传君、高叶、王骁等知名演员领衔主演。 该片讲述了1937年南京沦陷时期,吉祥照相馆的几名普通百姓在被迫为日军冲洗照片时,意外发现记录暴行的底片,继而冒死传递罪证,最终让真相曝光的 故事。 恰逢今年是中国人民抗日战争暨世界反法西斯战争胜利80周年,其题材意义尤为特殊。 随着爆款影片《南京照相馆》走红,A股上市公司幸福蓝海表现抢眼。继昨日涨停后,该股今日开盘即封死20CM涨停,报21.1元,总市值飙至78.62亿元。 爆款影片票房狂飙 冷清许久的电影大盘,终于被一部爆款"破冰"。 上映首日,《南京照相馆》(含点映)票房达1.58亿元,登顶当日票房冠军,目前累计票房已破5亿元。据猫眼专业版预测,其最终内地总票房将达32.46亿 元,有望跻身2025年度票房榜第三(前两名为春节档的《哪吒之魔童闹海》与《唐探1900》)。 图片来自:猫眼 专业版微博 幸福蓝海7月股价翻倍 随着影片热映,作为主要出品方之一的幸福蓝海股价显著上涨。7月24日至28日连续三个交易日内,公司股票日收盘价格涨幅偏离值累计超30%,触发股票 ...
基本面高频数据跟踪:出口运价回落
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES· 2025-07-29 01:55
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The report updates the high - frequency data of the Guosheng fixed - income fundamental index from July 21 to July 25, 2025, covering various aspects such as production, demand, prices, transportation, inventory, and financing. It shows that the fundamental high - frequency index is stable, with different trends in each sub - index, including changes in growth rates and fluctuations in specific indicators [1][9]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Total Index: Fundamental High - Frequency Index Stable - The current Guosheng fundamental high - frequency index is 126.8 points (previous value 126.7 points), with a week - on - week increase of 0.1 points and a year - on - year increase of 5.3 points, and the year - on - year growth rate remains unchanged. The long - short signal of interest - rate bonds weakens, with the signal factor at 4.6% (previous value 4.7%) [1][9]. 2. Production - The industrial production high - frequency index is 126.1 (previous value 126.0), with a week - on - week increase of 0.1 points and a year - on - year increase of 5.0 points, and the year - on - year growth rate remains unchanged. The PX operating rate has been declining continuously. The current PX operating rate is 82.4% (previous value 83.2%) [1][13]. 3. Real Estate Sales - The real estate sales high - frequency index shows that property transactions are picking up. The transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities is 21.0 million square meters (previous value 17.1 million square meters), and the premium rate of land transactions in 100 large and medium - sized cities is 7.8% (previous value 6.7%) [25]. 4. Infrastructure Investment - The infrastructure investment high - frequency index is 119.8 (previous value 119.5), with a week - on - week increase of 0.2 points and a year - on - year increase of 4.2 points, and the year - on - year growth rate expands. The operating rate of petroleum asphalt devices has decreased, with the current operating rate at 28.8% (previous value 32.8%) [9][34]. 5. Export - The export high - frequency index is 143.9 (previous value 144.0), with a week - on - week decrease of 0.1 points and a year - on - year increase of 3.7 points, and the year - on - year growth rate narrows. The China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI) has been declining continuously, with the current CCFI index at 1261 points (previous value 1304 points) [9][36]. 6. Consumption - The consumption high - frequency index is 119.7 (previous value 119.7), with a week - on - week increase of 0.0 points and a year - on - year increase of 2.5 points, and the year - on - year growth rate expands. Retail and wholesale sales of passenger vehicle manufacturers continue to rise. The current retail sales of passenger vehicle manufacturers are 58,207 units (previous value 47,548 units), and the wholesale sales are 57,826 units (previous value 46,085 units) [9][49]. 7. CPI - The month - on - month CPI forecast is 0.1% (previous value 0.0%). Fruit prices continue to decline. The average wholesale price of 7 key monitored fruits is 7.1 yuan/kg (previous value 7.3 yuan/kg) [1][55]. 8. PPI - The month - on - month PPI forecast is 0.2% (previous value 0.1%). The price of thermal coal has rebounded. The closing price of thermal coal (produced in Shanxi) at Qinhuangdao Port is 649 yuan/ton (previous value 637 yuan/ton) [1][61]. 9. Transportation - The transportation high - frequency index is 129.2 (previous value 129.0), with a week - on - week increase of 0.2 points and a year - on - year increase of 8.9 points, and the year - on - year growth rate expands. Passenger volume and flight operation numbers have decreased. The subway passenger volume in first - tier cities is 39 million person - times (previous value 41.14 million person - times), and the number of domestic flights is 14,428 flights (previous value 14,653 flights) [2][71]. 10. Inventory - The inventory high - frequency index is 161.0 (previous value 160.9), with a week - on - week increase of 0.1 points and a year - on - year increase of 9.4 points, and the year - on - year growth rate remains unchanged. Soda ash inventory has declined. The current soda ash inventory is 1.874 million tons (previous value 1.895 million tons) [2][77]. 11. Financing - The financing high - frequency index is 232.7 (previous value 232.1), with a week - on - week increase of 0.6 points and a year - on - year increase of 29.6 points, and the year - on - year growth rate expands. Net financing of local government bonds and credit bonds has increased. The net financing of local government bonds is 292.9 billion yuan (previous value 150.5 billion yuan), and the net financing of credit bonds is 54.9 billion yuan (previous value 44.6 billion yuan) [2][87].
暑期档,危险了
凤凰网财经· 2025-07-28 15:51
Core Viewpoint - The summer box office in China has seen a significant decline, with total earnings reaching only 51.61 billion yuan, a drop of nearly 26% compared to the previous year, raising concerns about the future of the film industry in the country [2][3][20]. Group 1: Box Office Performance - The summer box office has only generated 51.61 billion yuan so far, down from 69.70 billion yuan last year, marking a decline of 25.95% [2]. - The current summer box office performance is even lower than the special periods of 2021 and 2022 [3]. - If the box office continues to decline, it may lead to a lack of confidence among film producers regarding the summer season, potentially pushing many films to the more lucrative Spring Festival period [20]. Group 2: Film Releases and Reception - Despite the release of numerous films from both established and new directors, many have failed to perform well at the box office, such as "酱园弄·悬案" with a predicted box office of only 3.75 billion yuan [5]. - New directors who previously achieved high box office numbers have also faced setbacks, with films like "恶意" and "无名之辈:否极泰来" expected to earn only 2.60 billion yuan and 0.52 billion yuan, respectively [6]. - The animated film "聊斋·兰若寺," which previously garnered 18 billion yuan, is now projected to earn only 3.15 billion yuan [7]. Group 3: Impact on Companies - China Film (600977.SH) has seen a decline in revenue and profit last year but is expected to recover slightly this summer due to its involvement in "南京照相馆," which is performing well [10]. - Companies like欢喜传媒, which produced "酱园弄·悬案," are likely to face significant losses, while光线传媒's "花漾少女杀人事件" is projected to earn only 0.29 billion yuan, which has a minimal impact on its overall performance [11][12]. - The remaining films that could potentially perform well are produced by non-traditional major companies, indicating a shift in the industry landscape [14]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The summer box office's core competitiveness relies on the continuous supply of diverse and high-quality films, which is crucial for driving overall box office performance [20]. - If high-quality films continue to migrate to the Spring Festival, the summer season may become a dumping ground for lower-quality films, leading to a negative perception among audiences [20]. - This could create a vicious cycle of declining box office performance, leading to fewer quality films, further diminishing the appeal of the summer season [20].
华源晨会精粹20250728-20250728
Hua Yuan Zheng Quan· 2025-07-28 13:28
Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,597.94, with a year-to-date increase of 10.28% [2] - The ChiNext Index rose by 0.96% to 2,362.60, with a year-to-date increase of 14.66% [2] - The CSI 300 Index increased by 0.21% to 4,135.82, with a year-to-date increase of 8.26% [2] - The CSI 1000 Index closed at 6,729.98, up 0.35% with a year-to-date increase of 16.09% [2] - The STAR 50 Index closed at 1,055.11, with a year-to-date increase of 10.44% [2] - The North Exchange 50 Index decreased by 0.25% to 1,455.37, but has a significant year-to-date increase of 42.70% [2] Overseas/Education Research - The U.S. White House released an AI Action Plan aimed at accelerating AI development by easing regulations and expanding energy supply for data centers [8] - The plan emphasizes the need for a reliable and adjustable energy infrastructure to support AI growth, highlighting the potential role of nuclear energy [8] Media Industry - The summer film market is showing signs of recovery, with daily box office reaching 294 million yuan on July 26, 2025 [20] - Notable films include "Nanjing Photo Studio" which grossed over 100 million yuan in its first two days [21] - The animation film "The Legend of Luo Xiaohei 2" has grossed 213 million yuan in nine days [21] - The gaming sector is also expected to see growth with new game releases and updates during the summer [22] Metals and New Materials - Copper prices are expected to fluctuate, with a recent increase in prices due to a general rise in commodities [30] - Lithium carbonate prices rose by 9.38% to 73,000 yuan per ton, driven by supply disruptions [32] - Cobalt prices also increased as inventory levels are gradually consumed [33] Pharmaceutical Industry - The pharmaceutical index rose by 1.90%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.21% [35] - Key players in the innovative drug sector are recommended for investment, including companies like Yuyuan Pharmaceutical and Frontline Bio [35] New Consumption - Pop Mart (09992.HK) reported a projected revenue growth of no less than 200% for H1 2025, driven by increased global brand recognition and diverse product offerings [35] - The company’s overseas business is also expanding, positively impacting profit margins [35] Electronics Industry - Yangjie Technology (300373.SZ) expects a net profit of 552 to 637 million yuan for H1 2025, marking a growth of 30%-50% [35] - The company is optimizing its product matrix and expanding its market presence through acquisitions [35]
利率周报:债市陷三重压制,但短期或迎小行情-20250728
Hua Yuan Zheng Quan· 2025-07-28 13:18
Report Investment Rating - No industry investment rating provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The bond market is under triple pressure, but a short - term small - scale rally may be expected. The bond market sentiment was suppressed due to the triple factors of the "anti - involution" sentiment driving up commodity prices, the continuous improvement of the stock market diverting funds, and the marginal improvement of some macro signals boosting risk appetite. From July 21st to 25th, the bond market underwent a rapid adjustment, with the yields of government bonds, policy - bank bonds, local government bonds, and credit bonds of all tenors rising across the board. Currently, there is a phased bullish view on the bond market, and the 10Y government bond yield may return to around 1.65%. It is expected that the Federal Reserve will significantly cut interest rates in 2026, presenting prominent opportunities in short - to medium - term US Treasury bonds [3][11][83]. Summary by Directory 1. Macro News - From January to June this year, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size in China was 3.44 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1.8%. The total operating income was 66.78 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.5%, and the operating cost was 57.12 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.8%. The operating profit margin was 5.15%, a year - on - year decrease of 0.22pct. On July 19th, the construction ceremony of the Yarlung Zangbo River downstream hydropower project was held. The project has a total investment of about 12 trillion yuan and a total installed capacity of about 60 million kilowatts. On December 18, 2025, the full - island customs closure of Hainan Free Trade Port will be officially launched. The scope of "zero - tariff" goods will be expanded to about 74% of all commodity tariff items, an increase of nearly 53 percentage points compared to before the closure. On July 23rd (local time), US President Trump stated that he would impose simple tariffs of 15% to 50% on most other countries in the world. On July 24th (local time), EU member states overwhelmingly passed a decision to impose tariffs on US products worth 93 billion euros [12][15]. 2. Medium - term High - frequency Data 2.1 Consumption - As of July 20th, the daily average retail volume of passenger car manufacturers was 58,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 16.8%, and the daily average wholesale volume was 58,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 8.3%. As of July 25th, the total box office revenue of domestic movies in the past 7 days was 984.43 million yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 33.6% but an increase of 110.2% compared to a month ago. As of July 11th, the total retail volume of three major household appliances was 2.471 million units, a year - on - year increase of 26.5%, and the total retail sales were 5.81 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 28.9% [13][21]. 2.2 Transportation - As of July 20th, the container throughput of ports was 6.642 million TEUs, a year - on - year increase of 5.2%. As of July 25th, the CCFI composite index was 1261.4, a year - on - year decrease of 42.2%. The average daily subway passenger volume in first - tier cities in the past 7 days was 39.519 million person - times, a year - on - year decrease of 2.2% but an increase of 1.0% compared to a month ago. As of July 20th, the postal express pick - up volume was 3.67 billion pieces, a year - on - year increase of 13.8% but a decrease of 10.0% compared to 4 weeks ago. The railway freight volume was 80.488 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.8%, and the highway truck traffic volume was 53.431 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 2.0% [26][28][31]. 2.3 Capacity Utilization - As of July 23rd, the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of major steel enterprises in China was 77.6%, a year - on - year increase of 2.3 percentage points. As of July 24th, the average asphalt capacity utilization rate was 26.0%, a year - on - year increase of 3.0 percentage points. As of July 24th, the soda ash capacity utilization rate was 82.8%, a year - on - year decrease of 6.5 percentage points, and the PVC capacity utilization rate was 74.9%, a year - on - year increase of 1.8 percentage points. As of July 25th, the average PX capacity utilization rate was 80.8%, and the average PTA capacity utilization rate was 80.7% [34][37]. 2.4 Real Estate - As of July 18th, the transaction area of second - hand houses in 9 sample cities decreased by 16.0% compared to 4 weeks ago. As of July 25th, the total transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities in the past 7 days was 1.564 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 5.6% [41][42]. 2.5 Prices - As of July 25th, the average wholesale price of pork was 20.7 yuan per kilogram, a year - on - year decrease of 17.5% but an increase of 2.4% compared to 4 weeks ago. The average wholesale price of vegetables was 4.4 yuan per kilogram, a year - on - year decrease of 10.3% but an increase of 0.5% compared to 4 weeks ago. The average wholesale price of 6 key fruits was 7.1 yuan per kilogram, a year - on - year decrease of 0.6% and a decrease of 4.2% compared to 4 weeks ago. The average price of thermal coal at northern ports was 641 yuan per ton, a year - on - year decrease of 24.5% but an increase of 4.7% compared to 4 weeks ago. The average spot price of WTI crude oil was 65.7 US dollars per barrel, a year - on - year decrease of 15.7% and a decrease of 2.5% compared to 4 weeks ago. The average spot price of rebar was 3310.4 yuan per ton, a year - on - year increase of 2.6% and an increase of 7.9% compared to 4 weeks ago. The average spot price of iron ore was 799.6 yuan per ton, a year - on - year decrease of 0.7% but an increase of 10.8% compared to 4 weeks ago. The average spot price of glass was 15.1 yuan per square meter, a year - on - year decrease of 14.8% but an increase of 9.2% compared to 4 weeks ago [46][49][54]. 3. Bond and Foreign Exchange Markets - On July 25th, R001 was 1.55%, up 15.10BP from July 21st; R007 was 1.69%, up 19.60BP from July 21st. DR001 was 1.52%, up 15.65BP from July 21st; DR007 was 1.65%, up 16.22BP from July 21st. Most government bond yields rose. On July 25th, the yields of 1 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year government bonds were 1.39%, 1.59%, 1.73%, and 1.98% respectively, up 4.1BP, 6.0BP, 6.8BP, and 8.7BP respectively from July 18th. The yields of 1 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year policy - bank bonds were 1.52%, 1.70%, 1.81%, and 2.08% respectively, up 4.6BP, 9.5BP, 9.0BP, and 5.2BP respectively from July 18th. The yields of 1 - year, 5 - year, and 10 - year local government bonds were 1.44%, 1.67%, and 1.83% respectively, up 5.2BP, 6.2BP, and 6.1BP respectively from July 18th. The yields of 1 - month and 1 - year AAA and AA + inter - bank certificates of deposit were 1.57%, 1.67%, 1.58%, and 1.70% respectively, up 6.0BP, 5.3BP, 6.0BP, and 5.3BP respectively from July 18th. As of July 25th, 2025, the 10 - year government bond yields of the US, Japan, the UK, and Germany were 4.4%, 1.6%, 4.6%, and 2.8% respectively, down 4BP, up 8BP, down 4BP, and up 6BP respectively from July 18th. On July 25th, the central parity rate and spot exchange rate of the US dollar against the Chinese yuan were 7.14 and 7.17 respectively, down 79 and 87 pips respectively from July 18th [56][61][70]. 4. Institutional Behavior - As of July 27th, the net - loss rate of public - offering wealth management products of wealth management companies was about 1.2%, down 0.77 percentage points from 1.97% at the beginning of the year, and the current percentile of the net - loss rate within the year was 36.7%. Since the beginning of 2025, the duration of medium - and long - term pure bond funds investing in interest - rate bonds has shown a trend of first decreasing and then increasing, with a slight decline in the past week. On July 25th, 2025, the estimated average duration was about 5.3 years, a decrease of about 0.17 years compared to the previous week (July 18th), and the weekly data showed the first decline since early May. The duration of medium - and long - term pure bond funds investing in credit bonds has shown a fluctuating trend since the beginning of 2025, and has risen rapidly in the past two weeks. On July 25th, 2025, the estimated median duration was about 2.5 years, and the estimated average duration was about 2.6 years, an increase of about 0.3 years compared to the previous week (July 18th) [77][80][81]. 5. Investment Recommendations - Currently, there is a phased bullish view on the bond market, and the 10Y government bond yield may return to around 1.65%. In 2025, there is no trend - based bond market rally, so it is advisable to take profits in a timely manner. Due to the rapid adjustment of the bond market and the rapid reduction of the duration of bond funds, it is believed that the bond market risks may have been mitigated. It is expected that the Federal Reserve will significantly cut interest rates in 2026, presenting prominent opportunities in short - to medium - term US Treasury bonds [83].
中国电影涨停,沪股通龙虎榜上净买入1982.05万元
Zheng Quan Shi Bao Wang· 2025-07-28 10:47
融资融券数据显示,该股最新(7月25日)两融余额为4.82亿元,其中,融资余额为4.76亿元,融券余额 为573.06万元。近5日融资余额合计减少4039.19万元,降幅为7.82%。融券余额合计增加147.97万元,增 幅34.81%。 4月30日公司发布的一季报数据显示,一季度公司共实现营业收入9.94亿元,同比下降3.13%,实现净利 润-1.41亿元。 7月15日公司发布上半年业绩预告,预计实现净利润-1.20亿元至-8000.00万元。(数据宝) 证券时报·数据宝统计显示,上榜的前五大买卖营业部合计成交3.98亿元,其中,买入成交额为2.91亿 元,卖出成交额为1.07亿元,合计净买入1.85亿元。 具体来看,今日上榜的营业部中,共有1家机构专用席位现身,即卖四,合计净卖出1585.13万元,沪股 通为第三大买入营业部及第一大卖出营业部,买入金额为5187.13万元,卖出金额为3205.08万元,合计 净买入1982.05万元。 资金流向方面,今日该股主力资金净流入1.92亿元,其中,特大单净流入2.36亿元,大单资金净流出 4361.68万元。近5日主力资金净流入9964.97万元。 中国电影7月 ...
传媒行业周观察(20250721-20250725):关注暑期档优质内容供给,WAIC展会再掀AI热潮,持续看好AI应用产业机会
Huachuang Securities· 2025-07-28 04:45
Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the media industry, particularly emphasizing the potential of AI applications and quality content supply during the summer season [1][2]. Core Insights - The media sector is experiencing a resurgence, with a notable increase in market performance, as evidenced by a 2.15% rise in the media index compared to a 1.69% increase in the CSI 300 index [9][19]. - The report highlights the importance of AI in reshaping the industry landscape, with expectations for significant growth in public cloud services and the emergence of new business models [6][28]. - The gaming market remains a focal point, with several companies expected to benefit from upcoming AI-driven developments and a rebound in user engagement [16][30]. - The film industry is showing signs of recovery, with ticket sales reaching 287.81 billion yuan and a notable increase in audience numbers compared to previous years [19][20]. Market Performance Review - The media index saw a 2.15% increase last week, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.46%, ranking 18th among all sectors [9][12]. - The gaming sector continues to dominate the iOS sales charts, with Tencent's titles consistently leading the rankings [16][17]. - The film market is recovering, with ticket sales for the summer season surpassing 49 billion yuan, driven by popular releases [28][30]. Industry Developments - AI technology is rapidly transforming the media landscape, with significant advancements in applications and user engagement [28][29]. - Major companies like Alibaba and Tencent are making strides in AI development, with Alibaba's AI glasses and Tencent's gaming innovations being highlighted [28][29]. - The report suggests a focus on quality content and strategic positioning within the AI space as key drivers for future growth in the media sector [6][28].
创纪录!刚刚,今年首只10倍股诞生!
中国基金报· 2025-07-28 04:36
【导读】 A 股午前突发跳水,上纬新材新晋 "10 倍股 " 中国基金报记者 晨曦 大家好!来一起关注上午的市场行情和最新资讯 ~ 7 月 28 日上午, A 股震荡走高,午前忽然跳水。截至午间收盘,上证指数跌 0.17% ,深 证成指跌 0.16% ,创业板指涨 0.1% 。 全市场半日成交额为 1.14 万亿元,较上日略有放量;全市场 3057 只个股下跌, 2162 只 个股上涨。 盘面上,上午金融、制药、航天军工、通信设备等板块走强, PEEK 材料、稀土、稳定币等 概念股持续活跃;煤炭、航运板块集体调整,钢铁、贵金属、光伏玻璃等回调。 | 多元金融 1.01% | 发电设备 0.76% | 通信设备 0.68% | 券商 0.38% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 包装 0.37% | 商业服务 0.25% | 陆路运输 -1.29% | 航空 -1.32% | | 石油天然气 -1.33% | 贵金属 -1.55% | 互联网 -1.57% | 钢铁 -1.71% | | 日用化工 -1.91% | 海运 -1.93% | 软饮料 -2.39% | 煤炭 -2.79% ...
中国宏观周报(2025年7月第4周)-20250728
Ping An Securities· 2025-07-28 04:09
Group 1: Industrial Production - China's industrial production shows signs of optimization, with marginal improvements in raw material production and utilization rates for steel, cement, and glass[1] - Steel construction material production increased by 0.6% week-on-week, while apparent demand for steel construction materials rose by 2.7%[5] - The operating rate for petroleum asphalt and some chemical products in Shandong has also seen recovery[13] Group 2: Real Estate Market - New home sales in 30 major cities decreased by 8.5% year-on-year, but the growth rate improved by 18.8 percentage points compared to the previous week[1] - The average listing price index for second-hand homes fell by 0.45% week-on-week as of July 14[22] Group 3: Domestic Demand - Movie box office revenue averaged 140.65 million yuan per day, a 39.0% increase week-on-week[29] - Retail sales of major home appliances grew by 12.6% year-on-year, with a 2.3 percentage point increase from the previous week[27] - Passenger car retail sales from July 1-20 reached 978,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 11%[30] Group 4: External Demand - Port cargo throughput increased by 7.5% year-on-year as of July 20, with container throughput growing by 4.3%[32] - South Korea's export value increased by 4.1% year-on-year in the first 20 working days of July, although the growth rate slightly declined compared to June[32] Group 5: Risks - Potential risks include insufficient growth policies, unexpected severity of overseas economic downturns, and escalation of geopolitical conflicts[34]